Saturday, March 20, 2010

Indian Wells Semifinals

With the Indian Wells semis set, there was only one really noteworthy result to speak in the quarterfinals. Robin Soderling absolutely blitzed Andy Murray. In a match that everyone expected would be either a cakewalk for Murray or a tight win for the Swede, Soderling nearly got away with hardly any effort at all, and still managed a victory without too much trouble.

In his first service game, Soderling faced three four points. However, after managing to save all of those, he went on to demolish Murray in the first set, allowing him only one game. Murray barely won a point on Soderling's serve after that. The second set looked to be going the same way, with Soderling up a break and given three break chances - match points - with Murray serving at 3-5. The Scot somehow saved them all and seemed rejuvenated, as he broke Soderling while he was serving for the match and brought it to a tiebreak. However, just when it looked like the momentum was about to turn, Soderling recovered from a momentary lapse and took the tiebreak 7-4.

So now the semis are set. Nadal, who is impressing with his performance here, has a nearly sure win against Ivan Ljubicic, who has played well this week, but hasn't faced terribly strong opposition. Nadal, on the other hand, has beaten a bevy of good players, and considering that he was questionable with his knee injury, his run towards defending his title is nothing short of spectacular. He hasn't won a title in ten months, and to come back at a Masters Event would be superb.

Soderling gets Andy Roddick in the semis, who brushed aside Robredo as easily as he usually does. It seems that everything is breaking well for the American, whose tougher opponents (according to the draw) stumbled at various stage and set up much easier matches to get him back to the semis, here. But he'll have his first real test against Soderling, who has never lost to Roddick in their two meetings. Roddick has never made a final in Indian Wells, and he probably won't get a better shot than this for the rest of his career. But he'll need to play much more aggressively than Murray did today, and he can hope that Soderling doesn't serve at his best.

For the other matches to look forward to, Caroline Wozniacki will face Jelena Jankovic for the women's final, which is a chance for the Serb to get back on track at a fairly major tournament. Tough to bet against Wozniacki, though.

The doubles final also has Rafael Nadal in it, which just hows how spectacularly he's playing this week. He'll face the top seeds, Nestor and Zimonjic, with his parter Marc Lopez.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Indian Wells Quarterfinals

The round of sixteen is complete in California, and it was - honestly - not all that exciting. There were two three-set matches, but every single match (except one) was won by the higher-ranked player. The lone upset was an exhausted Novak Djokovic, who fell to Ivan Ljubicic. He did not seem especially saddened or surprised by the loss. Hopefully he'll get some rest and be ready for action again in Miami.

The two three setters were between Nadal-Isner and Robredo-Baghdatis - the second set featured a steamrolling performance by Baggy, but the Spaniard was able to win the other two sets pretty comfortably. I think the Cypriot was hurt by playing so late last night, and he was tired against Robredo, who is doubtless a very physically fit player. Robredo also has the dubious honor of being the best player of the last decade never to make a grand slam semifinal.

The other three-setter was less topsy-turvy. Even though it went three sets, Nadal was in charge against the big-serving American the entire time. He played one loose service game in the second set, and it was done. But other than that, Nadal played his usual imperious game. He went the entire first set without making an unforced error. He then went on to win a doubles match against Llodra and Ram. Isner also went on to win a doubles match, so it's good to see he wasn't discouraged by his loss.

Beyond that, the other round of 16 matches were not terrifically interesting. Almagro was forced to retire in the first game of the second set, after he had started the match on fire, winning the first two games before losing the next seven. It's always a shame when a tough match ends and then the winner has to retire in their subsequent match - for the loser, for the crowd, and for the tournament. James Blake has to be kicking himself right now.

At this point, it's pretty clear which half of the draw is stronger. The remaining players in the top half are seeded 4, 6, 7, and 18. The remaining players in the bottom half are seeded 3, 19, 20, and 21. It's tough to see Nadal losing before the final against Berdych, Ljubicic, or Monaco, considering how well he's played so far. Unless an injure flares up or he comes down bad on a knee, he should make it to Sunday's final.

The story in the top half is more interesting. You have to pick Andy Roddick as the favorite to make it to the semis against Robredo, as the American is 10-0 against Tommy. But Murray and Soderling haven't played in four years, and neither player even resembles who they were in 2006. And then taking the winner of that match against Roddick, to me it may be a bit of a three-way pick-em, but Murray does have to be the favorite. And Soderling is 2-0 against Roddick, who is 3-6 against the other Andy. But Roddick has to be excited with the way the draw is opening up for him. To have all of his potentially troubling opponents get taken out by others - Tiparevic, Monfils, Federer, and Baghdatis. Roddick has not yet played a player who has beaten him even once. He is 22-0 against his first four opponents, coming into the tournament. It's tough to ask for a better road to the final.

It is worth noting that two of the four lower seeds (18-21) have won Masters Series tournaments (Robredo and Berdych), and a third has made multiple finals (Ljubicic). So it's not like they've never been here before. Despite the fact that my draw with my predictions is an absolute shambles, I am really enjoying this tournament and am greatly looking forward to the last three rounds.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Sunrise Challenger Update

While most of the tennis world's attention is drawn to the West coast of the United States for the BNP Paribas Masters Series event at Indian Wells, there is another tournament going on this week with more marquee players than you would find at your average 250-tier event on any given week on the ATP Tour.

While the challenger circuit is mostly the minor leagues of the tennis world, filled with young hopefuls on their way up and aging veterans hoping to get back to their former glory, there are a handful of challenger tournaments that have carved out, through hard work and a little bit of luck, a really nice niche in the tennis calender.

The BMW Tennis Championship in Sunrise, Florida is one of those challenger tournaments. Situated during the second week of the 1.5-week long Indian Wells tourney, the Sunrise tournament is situated in close proximity to the next Masters Series event in Miami, which makes it a frequent stop for relatively highly-ranked players who didn't play at Indian Wells (or who didn't play for very long) in order to get some momentum for the next Masters event.

Last year, Robin Soderling was having a middling start to the season. He was 5-5 after losing to Nicolas Lapentti in the second round in Indian Wells, but he didn't commit to Sunrise in time to make the main draw. So he played through qualifying, into a challenger event, and ended up beating Gilles Muller, Rainer Schuettler, Feliciano Lopez, and Tomas Berdych on his way to taking the title. It's not often you see a challenger tournament with a field that strong.

And while Soderling wasn't able to build on his momentum right away, (he lost in the second round at Miami as well, to Robert Kendrick) his year took a turn starting at the French Open. After his miraculous run to the final, in which he became the first player ever to beat Rafael Nadal on the red clay of Roland Garros, he made the round of 16 at Wimbledon and the quarters at the US Open, losing to Federer both times. He also won the tournament in Bastaad and made the semifinals at the end of year championships.

This year, he's in the top ten and still in action at Indian Wells, so he won't be defending his title at Sunrise. But there is still a loaded field. One of the opening matches features Richard Gasquet against Gilles Simon, two players who have shown glimpses of their ability, but haven't been able to put it all together lately. Radek Stepanek is also there, who it was just announced is marrying the retiring Nicole Vaidisova this summer. His year has stalled out, engagement to a beautiful 20-year old notwithstanding. After making the final in Brisbane and losing to Andy Roddick, he has won only one match in his next three tournaments.

There are a handful of players in action at the 2010 BMW Tennis Championship who have lingered on the edge of obscurity, those players who always seem to be threatening to make a big move but never quite able to do it. Last year, Robin Soderling was in that camp. This year, he's playing J.W. Tsonga for a likely shot at Andy Murray in the querterfinals at Indian Wells. Maybe someone else will make that jump into the top tier, this year.

Indian Wells Tuesday - Stunning Upset!

As the action draws to a close today, we finish what was a day of not all that thrilling tennis, up until the last match. First, a look at the other action around the grounds. Most of the seeded players cruised today. Roddick, Soderling, Murray, and Robredo all made it through without dropping a set. Only Soderling even went to a tiebreak. Tsonga lost a set on route to victory, but it was only a momentary lapse, and Montanes did not really have his teeth in the second and third sets.

The second-last match of the night, between James Blake and Nicolas Almagro, was a tight one, but was marred by some admittedly questionable calls at key moments, and subsequently more frustration than is necessary from Blake. He was playing well, but Almagro was serving bombs and smacking winners off both sides. Usually, Almagro can't keep that up for an entire match, but he was on tonight. It's no shame that James lost, and hopefully he'll be encouraged by the strength of his player this week.

The following match had all of the intensity and none of the controversy, as well as a much more marquee match-up. Twenty-seventh seed Marcos Baghdatis was facing Roger Federer in a rematch of the pair's Australian Open final from 2007. They had faced each other five other times, and Baghdatis was 2-15 in sets against the mighty Fed. When Federer won the first set 7-5 tonight, it looked like it would be more of the same. But Baghdatis fought back. Even though he was down by several match points, he brought the match to a third-set tiebreak and won with a single minibreak, 7-4. It's really a famous victory for the Cypriot, who is playing like he was when he made the top ten. There's no reason he can't find his way back there, if he can keep up this level of play.

As Cara Black and Liezel Huber also lost today, that means that the only top seeds left in the tournament are Nestor and Zimonjic in the men's doubles. This really is an odd tournament, in terms of favorites dropping like flies. Today, the women's side was relatively quiet, with the only upset between Maria Martinez-Sanchez and Yanina Wickmayer, which isn't a huge upset by any means. And Suarez-Navarro and Kleybanova are still on-court, so who knows what will happen there. So far, there have been six breaks in seven games, so Suarez-Navarro is up a hold.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the two halves of the tournament come together. Baghdatis is really at a disadvantage, having had to play so late and then come back tomorrow. Fortunately, he'll be last on Court 2 to play Tommy Robredo, but just based on health, it's going to be a tough ask for the Cypriot to follow up that win.

Also on court 2, Guillermo-Garcia Lopez plays Juan Monaco, which is not quite the match-up that you'd expect this deep into a hardcourt Masters series event. Good for both of these guys for making it this far, though. Unfortunately, they don't have much interest here in the states, so they're up first. Look for that match to be poorly-attended. Next up, Ivan Ljubicic faces Novak Djokovic, and if Djokovic decides to leave the court for a set again this match, expect the veteran Ljubicic to take advantage, unlike Kohlschreiber in the last round. There might be another upset here, depending on whether or not Djokovic shows up. Finally on court 2, Viktor Troicki will play his second game of the tournament against Tomaz Berdych. I'll admit that I don't give Troicki much of a shot here, particularly with how well Berdych played against Verdasco.

On center court, there are some real crackerjack matches. John Isner is playing Rafael Nadal, and though Nadal's knees have not seemed to be troubling him thus far this tournament, the big-hitting giant will give them their sternest test yet. After that, Tsonga and Soderling are playing in the earliest meeting of top ten players in this tournament. Both are playing great, but Soderling has a 2-0 advantage. Tsonga sometimes doesn't handle playing against big servers that well, which is strange since he's one of the best servers on tour. Soderling may have the advantage, but this should be close.

In the night session, both Andys are in action, but not against each other. Andy Roddick faces Austrian Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, who got a walkover from Simon Gruel. Roddick's last opponent had gotten a retirement as well, and it didn't seem to do him much good. But Melzer is a tougher opponent, even though Roddick is 9-0 against him. As Bagdhatis showed today, a dominating head-to-head does not mean a dominating victory. The last match of the day features Andy Murray against Nicolas Almagro. Now Almagro is exactly the type of heavy-hitter who can trouble Murray, and if the Spaniard plays (and particularly serves) as well as he did against Blake, then Murray could be in trouble. But Murray can have a way of blunting those players' power, and getting them off their game enough to start missing. Look for him to do that tomorrow.

One final little NB - Isner and Querrey are playing Karlovic and Vemic in doubles tomorrow. The two biggest players on the tour on opposite sides of the net again.

Really, the latter stages of the tournament begins tomorrow in earnest. I'm anxious to see if the trend of upsets continues.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Indian Wells Monday Wrap-up

Even though Monday's action in Indian Wells isn't quite finished yet (Querrey and Isner still have to play), I'm going to go ahead and write my wrap-up. This is the disadvantage of tennis actually taking place in your time zone, but it is the only one.

There was some great action today, with some minor upsets, some gutsy performances, a couple real dominations, and even a few chokes. The worst choke of the day belongs to German Phillip Kohlschreiber, who failed to capitalize on the fact that Djokovic simply did not show up for the second set of the match. After being up a set and a break, Djokovic went walkabout and lost eight games in a row. The Serb evened it up, but then got down 0-40 on serve while down 4-5. Kohlschreiber failed to take advantage of any, and then lost the match in a third-set tiebreak. A real escape for the Djoker, who has only decided to show up about 60% of the time for his last two matches.

Rafael Nadal, on the other hand, looked imperious in his match against Mario Ancic. Nothing that Super Mario could do in that one.

Strangely, there wasn't much that Fernando Verdasco could do today, either. In what was not necessarily a surprising result, Tomas Berdych just decimated the Spaniard love and three. They had some tough matches in the past, so the manner of Berdych's victory was a bit of a shock. It sounds like Hot Sauce may have been having some trouble with a new racket, but it wasn't just his racket that was bothering him today, it was his big-hitting Czech opponent.

The other two upsets of the day were Juan Monaco over Juan Carlos Ferrero, in a tight three-setter, and then Guillermo Garcia-Lopez over Tomaz Bellucci, who won the first and then kind of lost his focus in the last two sets, having a lot more trouble hitting his big forehands and unable to keep his first-serve percentage over fifty. In fact, it was 39% in the second set!

There were a handful of upsets on the women's side, as well. Carla Suarez-Navarro followed up her win over Kuznetsova by beat Aggie Szavay. Azarenka also lost, rather meekly in fact, to Maria Martinez-Sanchez, so it was a good day for hyphenated Spaniards. Shahar Peer beat Flavia Pennetta in three as well, but the upset of the day was Alisa Kleybanova over Kim Clijsters in the third set tiebreak. Clijsters really should have come away with this match, she just made a few too many errors at key moments. Kleybanova is looking fitter than ever and is on quite a hot streak right now.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the marquee match is definitely Roger Federer versus Marcos Baghdatis, which could be a thriller. Also, keep an eye out for Petrova-Wozniacki and Radwanska-Bartoli. On paper, the women's matches are better than the men's tomorrow, but as usual, anything could happen.

I hope that the court that has Dudi Sela and Tommy Robredo has cameras, because that could be a fun match, even if it lacks star power. Lopez-Soderling should feature a ton of aces, and Thiemo De Bakker gets another shot at Andy Roddick, after falling to him this year at the Aussie Open.

Well, I'm going to head to bed and see if I can watch Querrey and Isner through to the finish line.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Indian Wells Weekend Wrap-up

We're into the third round at Indian Wells, and things are mostly going as expected. By that, I mean that there have been about as many surprising upsets as one usually finds in a tournament of this size. Three of the favorites on the women's side are already out - Justine Henin fell to Gisela Dulko, top seed Svetlana Kuznetsova fell to Carla Suarez Navarro, and Maria Sharapova lost to Jie Zheng. At this point, it's likely that the semifinals could be Clijsters-Azarenka and Dementieva-Wozinacki.

In Men's doubles, the Bryan Brothers have lost as well, losing to Berdych and Kohlschreiber in straights. They were the second seed, and the third and fourth seeds have also dropped; Paes and Dlouhy lost to Marc Lopez and Rafael Nadal, while Bhupathi and Mirnyi lost to Andreev and Korolev. Top seeds Nestor and Zimonjic have survived their only match thus far, and they'll be facing Andy Roddick and James Blake in the second round. If the trend of top singles players beating experienced doubles teams continues, the top seeds are in danger.

There's been nothing resembling that level of upset on the men's side, but there have been a handful of surprises. The highest-seeded casualty is Nikolay Davydenko, who was forced to withdraw with his wrist injury after he beat Ernests Gulbis. As a result, Viktor Troicki is into the round of sixteen after playing only a single game. He had a bye in the first round, Pablo Cuevas retired six points into the match, and now he gets a walkover from Nikolay Davydenko. Oddly enough, this matches Troicki's best ever effort at a Masters 1000 event. I don't give him much of a chance agsinst the winner of Berdych-Verdasco, though.

David Ferrer was also upset, but he was playing James Blake, so it wasn't as big an upset as it may have seemed. Blake was at his imperious best, and if he can keep up that level of play (no easy task) then he could make a deep run into this tournament. He'll face Nicolas Almagro next, who upset Ivo Karlovic in the second round. In fact, let me just do a quick rundown of other seeds to falter.

Marin Cilic was the first big upset of the tourney on the men's side, losing Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in his first match. He must have just been tired, as he did lead the tour in match wins on the year. Gilles Simon lost to Brian Dabul, but Simon hasn't been heard from too much as of late, so it's not the biggest shock in the world. Julien Benneteau lost to Mario Ancic, but Ancic is on the comeback trail as well, and he's a former top ten player.

In the top half of the draw, Monfils and Stepanek both lost, to Simon Gruel and Dudi Sela. Igor Andreev fell to American Michael Russell, and Janko Tipsarevic had to retire against Thiemo De Bakker. It's also worth noting that David Nalbandian lost to Jurgen Melzer, so it doesn't look like he was completely inspired by his performance at Davis Cup.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most exciting matches mostly feature the top seeds. Nadal plays Mario Ancic, as I mentioned. Ancic has not been at his best for years, but Nadal hasn't been at his best for the better part of a year, either. A win from Ancic would really announce his intentions to return to the top tier of the game. However, even when Nadal is not at his best, he can handle most players. If Ancic even makes this competitive, it will be an encouraging result.

Djokovic plays Philipp Kohlschreiber, against whom he has a 1-1 record, but Djokovic's one win was on this very court two years ago, and it was decisive, 3 and 2. It's tough to see that result changing too much tomorrow, but Djokovic went walkabout in the second set of his win against Mardy Fish, losing that set 6-0.

John Isner and Sam Querrey are playing in tomorrow's night match, in what is shaping up to be the next big American rivalry. It's not quite Agassi-Sampras - who apparently still aren't too fond of each other - but I think it will be fun to watch. Querrey is just a bit better moving around the court, and I give him the advantage in this match.

I'm also really looking forward to Verdasco-Berdych, who have a 3-4 head to head. This one's a real pick-em, and the winner should have relatively little trouble in the next round, giving them an almost guaranteed path to the quarterfinals, where they could meet a potentially ailing Nadal. Lots riding on this match.