Monday, March 15, 2010

Indian Wells Weekend Wrap-up

We're into the third round at Indian Wells, and things are mostly going as expected. By that, I mean that there have been about as many surprising upsets as one usually finds in a tournament of this size. Three of the favorites on the women's side are already out - Justine Henin fell to Gisela Dulko, top seed Svetlana Kuznetsova fell to Carla Suarez Navarro, and Maria Sharapova lost to Jie Zheng. At this point, it's likely that the semifinals could be Clijsters-Azarenka and Dementieva-Wozinacki.

In Men's doubles, the Bryan Brothers have lost as well, losing to Berdych and Kohlschreiber in straights. They were the second seed, and the third and fourth seeds have also dropped; Paes and Dlouhy lost to Marc Lopez and Rafael Nadal, while Bhupathi and Mirnyi lost to Andreev and Korolev. Top seeds Nestor and Zimonjic have survived their only match thus far, and they'll be facing Andy Roddick and James Blake in the second round. If the trend of top singles players beating experienced doubles teams continues, the top seeds are in danger.

There's been nothing resembling that level of upset on the men's side, but there have been a handful of surprises. The highest-seeded casualty is Nikolay Davydenko, who was forced to withdraw with his wrist injury after he beat Ernests Gulbis. As a result, Viktor Troicki is into the round of sixteen after playing only a single game. He had a bye in the first round, Pablo Cuevas retired six points into the match, and now he gets a walkover from Nikolay Davydenko. Oddly enough, this matches Troicki's best ever effort at a Masters 1000 event. I don't give him much of a chance agsinst the winner of Berdych-Verdasco, though.

David Ferrer was also upset, but he was playing James Blake, so it wasn't as big an upset as it may have seemed. Blake was at his imperious best, and if he can keep up that level of play (no easy task) then he could make a deep run into this tournament. He'll face Nicolas Almagro next, who upset Ivo Karlovic in the second round. In fact, let me just do a quick rundown of other seeds to falter.

Marin Cilic was the first big upset of the tourney on the men's side, losing Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in his first match. He must have just been tired, as he did lead the tour in match wins on the year. Gilles Simon lost to Brian Dabul, but Simon hasn't been heard from too much as of late, so it's not the biggest shock in the world. Julien Benneteau lost to Mario Ancic, but Ancic is on the comeback trail as well, and he's a former top ten player.

In the top half of the draw, Monfils and Stepanek both lost, to Simon Gruel and Dudi Sela. Igor Andreev fell to American Michael Russell, and Janko Tipsarevic had to retire against Thiemo De Bakker. It's also worth noting that David Nalbandian lost to Jurgen Melzer, so it doesn't look like he was completely inspired by his performance at Davis Cup.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most exciting matches mostly feature the top seeds. Nadal plays Mario Ancic, as I mentioned. Ancic has not been at his best for years, but Nadal hasn't been at his best for the better part of a year, either. A win from Ancic would really announce his intentions to return to the top tier of the game. However, even when Nadal is not at his best, he can handle most players. If Ancic even makes this competitive, it will be an encouraging result.

Djokovic plays Philipp Kohlschreiber, against whom he has a 1-1 record, but Djokovic's one win was on this very court two years ago, and it was decisive, 3 and 2. It's tough to see that result changing too much tomorrow, but Djokovic went walkabout in the second set of his win against Mardy Fish, losing that set 6-0.

John Isner and Sam Querrey are playing in tomorrow's night match, in what is shaping up to be the next big American rivalry. It's not quite Agassi-Sampras - who apparently still aren't too fond of each other - but I think it will be fun to watch. Querrey is just a bit better moving around the court, and I give him the advantage in this match.

I'm also really looking forward to Verdasco-Berdych, who have a 3-4 head to head. This one's a real pick-em, and the winner should have relatively little trouble in the next round, giving them an almost guaranteed path to the quarterfinals, where they could meet a potentially ailing Nadal. Lots riding on this match.