The third round of the AO had it's share of disappointments, but on the whole, I'd say it lived up to its potential. The hype over the Federer-Safin match was entirely unjustified, and the way the match ended up reflected that. Safin circa 2005 bears basically no resemblance to Safin 2009.
The biggest surprise of the third round, at least to me, is that realization of how well Fernando Verdasco is playing. He's played three complete matches and lost only 12 games. In comparison, Andy Murray has played two and a half matches (since Pavel retired) and has lost 19 games. They're going to play in the fourth round, and even though Murray is far and away the favorite (8:1 at BetFair, and for comparison, Baghdatis is 3.65:1) the other Fernando could really make this a match.
Of course, the Gonzalez-Gasquet match was also spectacular. Match of the tournament, thus far. Gasquet has now been paid back twice over for coming back from two sets down to beat Roddick at Wimbledon in 2007. Andy Murray did it to him at Wimby in 08, and now Gonzo's done it to him again. It's a shame someone had to lose, because it was just a stellar match, lots of drama, incredible shotmaking, injuries, and to go to 10-12 in the 5th. Whew. Let's just hope Gonzo recovers so he can show up for his match against Nadal.
The upsets of the third round were neither that exciting or surprising, but it's good to see Baghdatis, Berdych, and Cilic all playing well. I think Ferrer, Fish, and Wawrinka are all on a downward slide.
Looking at the matches in the fourth round, the only players who I don't give more than a 10% shot to are Tomas Berdych against Roger Federer, and Tommy Robredo against Andy Roddick. Robredo is actually getting pretty good odds (5:1 on Betfair), but I really don't think he's going to do much against Roddick, who has never lost to Robredo. Similarly, Berdych is going to have to play at a level that he's never played before in order to beat Federer. As for the other matches...
Cilic-Del Potro: Two big, tall young guns. These guys will probably play a lot in the next five to ten years, so this first meeting should be exciting. Cilic just beat Ferrer, but it will be very interesting to see him against Del Potro. Juan Martin has the advantage in this match, as he's more accomplished than Marin, but I imagine that this rivalry-to-be will get closer down the line.
Djokovic-Baghdatis: The sense is that this is the most likely upset of the top four players in this round. It's certainly possible, but Baghdatis is going to have to play the way he played two years ago. Djokovic hasn't been at his best this tournament, so it's possible. But I see Djoko coming through this.
Blake-Tsonga: Oh my goodness. This is going to be great. Both of these guys are incredibly exciting shotmakers and tons of fun to watch. Tsonga says his back is in good shape, but Blake has been playing very well this tournament, too. I like JW in this one, but James could come through if he plays solid throughout. He's prone to dips, and that could be his downfall.
Monfils-Simon: Another potentially stunning match from two up-and-coming French players. Monfils is a lot more fun to watch than Simon, but Gilles has had better results last year. Regardless of who wins, they both beat Nadal the last time they played him, and he's their likely next opponent, unless Gonzalez makes the enormous upset.
Basically, any of these matches could go either way without surprising me too much, with the exception of Roddick and Federer. It would take a meltdown from either of those guys to lose those matches. The nice thing is that no matter what happens, basically any set of quarterfinals should be exciting, too.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Australian Open underway
I don't know if you've been able to watch any of the Australian Open thus far, but if you haven't ... then you haven't missed much. It's been a pretty boring tournament up to this point, in my opinion. All of the favorites are rolling without much trouble, and while there have been some very close and exciting matches (Gilles Muller beats Feliciano Lopez 16-14 in the fifth set!) they were between people who aren't really going to make it that far into the tournament.
And the only upsets of consequence were of Venus Williams and David Nalbandian, who apparently did not do too much training in the off-season. The announcers jokingly referred to him as a "teletubby" because of his paunch. Another interesting one was Fabrice Santoro (the magician!) over Phillip Kohlschreiber in the fifth set. And for his victory, Santoro gets to play Andy Roddick, who demolished him last year at the U.S. Open. Much better for Andy than Kohlschreiber, who beat Roddick a year ago in the third round! Andy now has a clear route to the quarterfinals against Djokovic, and it will an incredible disappointment if he loses before then.
Today is the first day of the third round, and we're starting to get some potentially interesting match-ups:
Safin-Federer: If Safin plays out of his mind, we could have one set of tennis that looks like 2005, but don't expect much more than that from the Russian who is playing his last year on tour, or so he says.
Cilic-Ferrer: The young Cilic is a tough competitor on the rise, and Ferrer has had some trouble with young guns lately. He lost recently to Sam Querrey and at last year's U.S. Open to Kei Nishikori of Japan. It depends on how much Cilic steps up, because you can bet Ferrer will be solid.
Muller-Del Potro: Gilles Muller has no right to be ranked so low, with his ability to pull off astounding wins every now and then. As I said, he won a 16-14 in the fifth first round match against Feliciano Lopez, and he has a tendency to win that way, after winning about four matches at the U.S. Open last year in five. I think Del Potro is just too big of a hitter for Muller, but he's pulled the upset before.
Fish-Baghdatis: Baghdatis is making good, with some solid wins over Soderling and Benneteau, while Fish's opponents haven't been of as much consequence. Still, these are both guys who are dangerous to go deep, once they get a match or two under their bet. This one could be a cracker.
Dudi Sela-J.W. Tsonga: After Tsonga toughed out a really good win over Ivan Ljubicic, he's rewarded with what should be an easy match on paper. The little Israeli did manage an upset of 30th seed Rainer Schuettler and Hanescu, but he also played his way through qualifying. If Tsonga's having some back trouble (not unlikely) then Sela could make this close.
Blake-Andreev: This is Blake's first real match of the tournament, after getting two no-names in the first two rounds. He played really well in his first two rounds, but he didn't hit much resistance. Andreev can be streaky, but he can play with the best players on his best days.
Stepanek-Verdasco: Radek "the Worm" Stepanek is on a good streak, but Fernando Verdasco has one of the best forehands in the game. To me, this is almost a toss-up.
Gilles Simon-"Super" Mario Ancic: Ancic beat big-serving "Dr." Ivo Karlovic in the 2nd round, and he gets rewarded with eighth seed Gilles Simon, who historically does not fare very well at the slams, but after the run he made in the second half of last year, I'd be shocked if he doesn't make a deep run at some point. I think Ancic's career has been unfortunate so far, with a lot of underachieving (at least in terms of tennis play, he got his law degree while he was out with illness) so his ranking should go up this year.
Monfils-Almagro: Almagro is a solid player who doesn't have the big wins in his career, while Monfils is streaky and occasionally thrilling. Will the Frenchman's talent and flashy play be enough to disarm the Spaniard? I bet so, but we'll see.
Gasquet-Gonzalez: This is a great one. Gasquet has also underachieved, so he may need to start proving himself, as he's now the #3 French player in the world. Gonzalez beat Hewitt and Canas, two baseline-running counterpunchers who aren't as mobile as they used to be. It will be quite a change to go up against the unevenly-brilliant shotmaker Gasquet. And the winner of this one gets Nadal.
Nadal is playing Tommy Haas, which should be closer than his first two matches, but I don't give him much of a chance. And Djokovic is playing Amer Delic, which is only going to be interesting because Delic grew up in Croatia, and there could be trouble when the Serbian and Croatian fans get together.
This is just the third round? Things are looking good, from this point on.
And the only upsets of consequence were of Venus Williams and David Nalbandian, who apparently did not do too much training in the off-season. The announcers jokingly referred to him as a "teletubby" because of his paunch. Another interesting one was Fabrice Santoro (the magician!) over Phillip Kohlschreiber in the fifth set. And for his victory, Santoro gets to play Andy Roddick, who demolished him last year at the U.S. Open. Much better for Andy than Kohlschreiber, who beat Roddick a year ago in the third round! Andy now has a clear route to the quarterfinals against Djokovic, and it will an incredible disappointment if he loses before then.
Today is the first day of the third round, and we're starting to get some potentially interesting match-ups:
Safin-Federer: If Safin plays out of his mind, we could have one set of tennis that looks like 2005, but don't expect much more than that from the Russian who is playing his last year on tour, or so he says.
Cilic-Ferrer: The young Cilic is a tough competitor on the rise, and Ferrer has had some trouble with young guns lately. He lost recently to Sam Querrey and at last year's U.S. Open to Kei Nishikori of Japan. It depends on how much Cilic steps up, because you can bet Ferrer will be solid.
Muller-Del Potro: Gilles Muller has no right to be ranked so low, with his ability to pull off astounding wins every now and then. As I said, he won a 16-14 in the fifth first round match against Feliciano Lopez, and he has a tendency to win that way, after winning about four matches at the U.S. Open last year in five. I think Del Potro is just too big of a hitter for Muller, but he's pulled the upset before.
Fish-Baghdatis: Baghdatis is making good, with some solid wins over Soderling and Benneteau, while Fish's opponents haven't been of as much consequence. Still, these are both guys who are dangerous to go deep, once they get a match or two under their bet. This one could be a cracker.
Dudi Sela-J.W. Tsonga: After Tsonga toughed out a really good win over Ivan Ljubicic, he's rewarded with what should be an easy match on paper. The little Israeli did manage an upset of 30th seed Rainer Schuettler and Hanescu, but he also played his way through qualifying. If Tsonga's having some back trouble (not unlikely) then Sela could make this close.
Blake-Andreev: This is Blake's first real match of the tournament, after getting two no-names in the first two rounds. He played really well in his first two rounds, but he didn't hit much resistance. Andreev can be streaky, but he can play with the best players on his best days.
Stepanek-Verdasco: Radek "the Worm" Stepanek is on a good streak, but Fernando Verdasco has one of the best forehands in the game. To me, this is almost a toss-up.
Gilles Simon-"Super" Mario Ancic: Ancic beat big-serving "Dr." Ivo Karlovic in the 2nd round, and he gets rewarded with eighth seed Gilles Simon, who historically does not fare very well at the slams, but after the run he made in the second half of last year, I'd be shocked if he doesn't make a deep run at some point. I think Ancic's career has been unfortunate so far, with a lot of underachieving (at least in terms of tennis play, he got his law degree while he was out with illness) so his ranking should go up this year.
Monfils-Almagro: Almagro is a solid player who doesn't have the big wins in his career, while Monfils is streaky and occasionally thrilling. Will the Frenchman's talent and flashy play be enough to disarm the Spaniard? I bet so, but we'll see.
Gasquet-Gonzalez: This is a great one. Gasquet has also underachieved, so he may need to start proving himself, as he's now the #3 French player in the world. Gonzalez beat Hewitt and Canas, two baseline-running counterpunchers who aren't as mobile as they used to be. It will be quite a change to go up against the unevenly-brilliant shotmaker Gasquet. And the winner of this one gets Nadal.
Nadal is playing Tommy Haas, which should be closer than his first two matches, but I don't give him much of a chance. And Djokovic is playing Amer Delic, which is only going to be interesting because Delic grew up in Croatia, and there could be trouble when the Serbian and Croatian fans get together.
This is just the third round? Things are looking good, from this point on.
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