With eight players left in the two tournaments we have going on this week, there are two interesting stories to look at. The first is whether anyone can stop Roger Federer in Stockholm. Honestly, the odds are not great at this point. Federer looked beatable in the first set against compatriot Wawrinka, who came out absolutely on fire but couldn't keep up that level of play, and faded in the second and third sets, while Federer has started at less than his best, only to raise his game and come through in the end. The only other player who had a shot at beating Fed was second seed Robin Soderling, who at least has a win over Federer this year - but he was beaten by Florian Mayer, who eked out a tight first set and then ran away with the second, as a frustrated Soderling started spraying errors.
Fed still has to play Ivan Ljubicic in the semis, but Ljubicic hasn't beaten Federer since 2003, and that's quite a while ago. The other semifinalist, Jarkko Nieminen, is 0-11 against the Fed. Mayer also doesn't have a win against the former world number one. So things are looking good for Roger to clinch the title in Stockholm.
In Moscow, the story is quite different - the seeds have been dropping like flies, and only one is left. Marcos Baghdatis is also the only player left of the four semifinalists who has already won an ATP title. The other three players have yet to take one, so it will be interesting to see whether Baggy can frustrate them, or if we'll have a first-time winner this week. I think the least likely contender is probably Pablo Cuevas. He's a fine player, but this isn't his best surface. When he wins a title, I expect it will be on clay.
As for the other two players, this could be their week. Denis Istomin and Viktor Troicki are both extremely capable players on this surface, and it's only a matter of time before they each win titles. Istomin made a final this year, and lost a tight match to Sergiy Stakhovsky, while Troicki has made two finals before, even though he hasn't made one this year. Both players have showed flashes of brilliance that suggest to me that they could be bound for the top 20, if they could just work on their consistency. Both players lost excellent matches to Nadal in the past month - and even playing Nadal tough when he's on his game is an accomplishment. I'd actually like to see Istomin-Troicki in the final, but we'll just have to wait and see how it shakes out.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
Week 42 Quarterfinals
The big news of the week so far is that Roger Federer played his 900th ATP-level match on Wednesday, as he brutalized poor American Taylor Dent in under an hour. He's showing no signs of slowing, and barring an injury Other than that, the other interesting story of the week has been the mass exodus of seeds from both Moscow and Stockholm. Of the sixteen seeded players, only six have made it to the quarterfinal round. And eight of those players had a first-round bye.
Three of the seeded players to crash out are still in the running for the ATP year-end finals - Mikhail Youzhny withdrew with illness, while Tomas Berdych was bested in a fairly straightforward match with the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen, and JW Tsonga was just a bit too error-prone against Viktor Troicki. He lost the second set on a fairly lucky net cord against him on break point, but he had his chances in the third set, and when the big points came up, he just couldn't find the court.
Of the remaining seeds, two of them are facing off tomorrow. Roger Federer takes on Stan Wawrinka, which has the potential to be an interesting match. Fed leads the head to head 5-1, but Wawrinka suggested that he may be a new player during the U.S. Open. He should have had enough time to recover from playing his heart out in Flushing and then in the Davis Cup playoff, so this will be an interesting test to see if new coach Peter Lundgren has really had an effect on the number two Swiss.
Hometown boy Robin Soderling gets German Florian Mayer in the quarters, and he should have a fairly easy win - Mayer can be a good player, but he isn't anywhere near consistent enough from point to point and match to match to handle the kind of player that Soderling has become. And Ivan Ljubicic gets Croatian qualifier Ivan Dodig, which should be a win for the veteran. The other quarterfinal in Stockholm is actually perhaps the most interesting, as it features a pair of veteran players on the comeback trail - James Blake and aforementioned Finn. Blake has had a much worse year (his ranking is 90 points Nieminen's) but he also leads the head-to-head 6-0. Nieminen is an exceptional mover and counter-puncher, while Blake can hit through just about anybody when he's on his game. Blake also has a great record at this tournament, so this one could be fun to watch. A great contrast in styles from two very experienced and interesting players.
The picture is even bleaker for the seeds in Moscow - and for the hometown boys as well! After Youzhny pulled out of the tournament, Davydenko lost in the first round to Pablo Cuevas, which is a match that last year's Davydenko never would have come close to losing. The only Russian left in the draw is Igor Kunitsyn, who faces off against up-and-coming Uzbek Denis Istomin. Another player in the same kind of career position is Alexandr Dolgopolov, who plays Marcos Baghdatis in the quarterfinals.
Baggy is one of the two remaining seeds in Moscow, the other being Radek Stepanek, who faces Pablo Cuevas. Neither Stepanek nor Baghdatis has had the kind of season that they would have hoped for, after great starts to the season. And Baghdatis is defending points from winning this championship last year - both could use deep runs or even a win here. The last quarterfinal is between Viktor Troicki and Horacio Zeballos. The Argentine is best on clay, and based on what I've seen from him, he always will be, while Troicki is starting to show levels of his game that I haven't seen before. He's still having problems closing out matches - see both Nadal and Djokovic in the past month - but he's played well enough to beat both of them.
We'll see if the seed exodus continues this week - we could have some relative newcomers lifting trophies come Sunday!
Three of the seeded players to crash out are still in the running for the ATP year-end finals - Mikhail Youzhny withdrew with illness, while Tomas Berdych was bested in a fairly straightforward match with the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen, and JW Tsonga was just a bit too error-prone against Viktor Troicki. He lost the second set on a fairly lucky net cord against him on break point, but he had his chances in the third set, and when the big points came up, he just couldn't find the court.
Of the remaining seeds, two of them are facing off tomorrow. Roger Federer takes on Stan Wawrinka, which has the potential to be an interesting match. Fed leads the head to head 5-1, but Wawrinka suggested that he may be a new player during the U.S. Open. He should have had enough time to recover from playing his heart out in Flushing and then in the Davis Cup playoff, so this will be an interesting test to see if new coach Peter Lundgren has really had an effect on the number two Swiss.
Hometown boy Robin Soderling gets German Florian Mayer in the quarters, and he should have a fairly easy win - Mayer can be a good player, but he isn't anywhere near consistent enough from point to point and match to match to handle the kind of player that Soderling has become. And Ivan Ljubicic gets Croatian qualifier Ivan Dodig, which should be a win for the veteran. The other quarterfinal in Stockholm is actually perhaps the most interesting, as it features a pair of veteran players on the comeback trail - James Blake and aforementioned Finn. Blake has had a much worse year (his ranking is 90 points Nieminen's) but he also leads the head-to-head 6-0. Nieminen is an exceptional mover and counter-puncher, while Blake can hit through just about anybody when he's on his game. Blake also has a great record at this tournament, so this one could be fun to watch. A great contrast in styles from two very experienced and interesting players.
The picture is even bleaker for the seeds in Moscow - and for the hometown boys as well! After Youzhny pulled out of the tournament, Davydenko lost in the first round to Pablo Cuevas, which is a match that last year's Davydenko never would have come close to losing. The only Russian left in the draw is Igor Kunitsyn, who faces off against up-and-coming Uzbek Denis Istomin. Another player in the same kind of career position is Alexandr Dolgopolov, who plays Marcos Baghdatis in the quarterfinals.
Baggy is one of the two remaining seeds in Moscow, the other being Radek Stepanek, who faces Pablo Cuevas. Neither Stepanek nor Baghdatis has had the kind of season that they would have hoped for, after great starts to the season. And Baghdatis is defending points from winning this championship last year - both could use deep runs or even a win here. The last quarterfinal is between Viktor Troicki and Horacio Zeballos. The Argentine is best on clay, and based on what I've seen from him, he always will be, while Troicki is starting to show levels of his game that I haven't seen before. He's still having problems closing out matches - see both Nadal and Djokovic in the past month - but he's played well enough to beat both of them.
We'll see if the seed exodus continues this week - we could have some relative newcomers lifting trophies come Sunday!
Monday, October 18, 2010
Shanghai Wrap-Up and Week 42 Preview
I have to admit, that was something of a surprising result. The final in Shanghai featured Andy Murray and Roger Federer, both of whom were in spectacular form coming in to the final. The pair had played some very close matches, so it was reasonable to expect another tight affair. Surprisingly, the match was something of a blowout. Even more surprising, the winner was Andy Murray - the other times their matches ended with lopsided results, it was a straightforward victory for Federer.
But this time, Murray was on the top of his game while Federer was a little bit off. He may have been a bit unlucky in the beginning of the second set, when a bad call may have cost him a point that he was forced to replay. But he wasn't unlucky on his second try, when he sailed a forehand wide under no particular pressure. Murray played some great tennis - no question about that, but Federer made too many errors on the big points.
Looking ahead to next week, there are a pair of tournaments to look at - one in Moscow and one in Stockholm. It's an odd week for tennis, because five of the world's top ten players are in action, but the 8th seed in both tournaments is ranked outside the top 35. So while there are some players to watch, the majority of the players in action are not at the top of the game just now.
That isn't to say that there aren't good matches in the early going - in Moscow, wildcard Dmitry Tursunov takes on Viktor Troicki, which should be an exciting match for the home crowd. And in Stockholm, James Blake (also in on a wildcard) faces the 7th seed Thomaz Bellucci. Those are big matches for both of these players, who are trying to make comebacks after injury layoffs. Neither one is going to be easy.
It will be interesting to see how these draws shake out - Federer really ought to win in Stockholm, and will have almost no excuse if he can't make it through the draw. The second seed is Robin Soderling, who got brutally thrashed by Federer just this last week, winning only a pair of games. On the other hand, the top seed in Moscow is on a terrible run of form. If he can put together a good week, it will really be a turnaround. He has a good chance, without too many tough opponents waiting in his way. The later stages of the tournament could get tricky, though.
But this time, Murray was on the top of his game while Federer was a little bit off. He may have been a bit unlucky in the beginning of the second set, when a bad call may have cost him a point that he was forced to replay. But he wasn't unlucky on his second try, when he sailed a forehand wide under no particular pressure. Murray played some great tennis - no question about that, but Federer made too many errors on the big points.
Looking ahead to next week, there are a pair of tournaments to look at - one in Moscow and one in Stockholm. It's an odd week for tennis, because five of the world's top ten players are in action, but the 8th seed in both tournaments is ranked outside the top 35. So while there are some players to watch, the majority of the players in action are not at the top of the game just now.
That isn't to say that there aren't good matches in the early going - in Moscow, wildcard Dmitry Tursunov takes on Viktor Troicki, which should be an exciting match for the home crowd. And in Stockholm, James Blake (also in on a wildcard) faces the 7th seed Thomaz Bellucci. Those are big matches for both of these players, who are trying to make comebacks after injury layoffs. Neither one is going to be easy.
It will be interesting to see how these draws shake out - Federer really ought to win in Stockholm, and will have almost no excuse if he can't make it through the draw. The second seed is Robin Soderling, who got brutally thrashed by Federer just this last week, winning only a pair of games. On the other hand, the top seed in Moscow is on a terrible run of form. If he can put together a good week, it will really be a turnaround. He has a good chance, without too many tough opponents waiting in his way. The later stages of the tournament could get tricky, though.
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