Week 42 Wrap-up and Week 43 Preview

Things went about as expected in the finals this week. Roger Federer handled a spirited challenge from German Florian Mayer without too much difficulty, equaling Pete Sampras's record of total titles won in the process, while Viktor Troicki managed to outlast a frustrated Marcos Baghdatis to claim his maiden title in Moscow. Baggy got extremely upset with some questionable line calls, even going so far as to spit at an line judge. Now he's justified in getting upset, but that's just not okay. Here's hoping that Moscow will have Hawkeye next year, and this won't be a problem.

As for Federer, kudos for reaching that milestone in your career, but with the sort of field he had to deal with in Stockholm, coupled with underperforming fellow seeds, it would have been pretty sad if he couldn't clinch this one. Florian Mayer in the final? Can't really ask for a better opponent when you're going for a record like that. But it also moves Federer squarely into second place in terms of matches won over the course of the year, even though he's still 14 match wins behind Nadal, and four titles, as well.

Looking ahead to next week, the fields are a little bit sparser. We're in the home stretch of the tournament calendar now, with only three weeks of regular action left in the season. So some players are scrambling to get all the action they can, trying to accumulate points and prize moeny before the off-season, while others are waiting to make a big push at next week's pair of 500 tournaments or the season-ending Masters in Paris. Still others have basically checked out already, either officially (Juan Martin Del Potro has called it quits for this season, but I can't blame him - more time to recover from surgery is a good thing) or unofficially. If you see some players just going through the motions to avoid fines or pick up appearance fees, you can probably guess what's going on.

There's only one top ten player in action: Mikhail Youzhny, currently world number 9, is the top seed in St. Petersburg, where the rest of the field is not anything to get excited about. The second seed is Sergiy Stakhovsky, ranked #35 in the world. If he's healthy, Youzhny has no reason not to go deep at this tournament, as he shouldn't face anyone but qualifiers, wildcards, or clay-court specialists before the semifinals. After that, things can get a bit more interesting - last week's champion Troicki is in the draw, as is Dolgopolov and wildcard Tursunov. This may be his best chance this year to have a good run and get some momentum before the end of the season.

The bottom half of the draw in St. Petersburg is a who's-who of second-tier Eastern European tennis players. There are a bunch of guys who just on the verge of reaching the top of the game, but haven't been able to do it yet: Gabashvili, Tipsarevic, Istomin, Stakhovsky, and Igor Andreev. Should be fun to see them in action, as well as Frenchmen Jeremy Chardy and Paul-Henri Mathieu. Any number of people could make it out of this half of the draw.

The biggest news of the week is actually the return of former world number one Thomas Muster, who's been given a wildcard into the Bank Austria Tennis Trophy tournament. The 43-year old winner of the 1995 French Open has been trying to make a comeback on the challenger circuit this year, but he's gone 1-6 in matches at that level. He drew fifth-seed Ernests Gulbis in the first round, and that's just an entirely different level of competition. It's an ill-advised comeback attempt, all around, and while I wish him well, I don't give him much of a shot. Head on over to the Champions tour if you're itching for match player, Mr. Muster.

The draw in Vienna is moderately strong, with four players from the top 20, and both of last week's losing finalists. Baghdatis and Florian Mayer could play in the second round, in fact. Another potentially good second-round match is James Blake and top Austrian player Jurgen Melzer. Marin Cilic is also in town, as well as Phillip Kohlschreiber and Nicolas Almagro. Some good players here in Vienna, and there could be late round fireworks, if people live up to their seedings.

The situation is much the same Montpellier, which has five top 20 players but nobody in the top 10. Nikolay Davydenko is the top seed, but with the form he's in, he's nowhere near the favorites to win the tournament, even with a favorable draw. The draw also features Tsonga, Monfils, Llodra, Gasquet, Gilles Simon, Nicolas Mahut (who won a challenger today against Bulgarian up-and-comer Grigor Dimitrov without breaking serve) and Arnaud Clement make up a strong French contingent. But don't count out David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic, or John Isner. Jarkko Nieminen, who played some excellent tennis in Stockholm, is also lurking in the draw.

It's certainly not a likely outcome, but there's an outside chance of a semifinal rematch between Isner and Mahut, which would be great publicity if it did come to pass. Still, I don't think I see it happening.

Week 42 Finals

In each tournament taking place this week, we had easy semifinal and one extremely close one. Federer and Troicki were the easy winners, over Ljubicic and Cuevas, as expected. Ljubicic just couldn't do anything to hurt Federer, and once he lost the first set (a tight one, admittedly) in a tiebreak, it was essentially over. Troicki must have appreciated finding a clay-court specialist ranked around 50 in the world in the semifinals, and he took advantage of the opportunity, winning 6-3, 6-3.

The other pair of matches were much tighter. In Stockholm, Jarkko Nieminen and Florian Mayer were playing for the privilege of losing to Roger Federer in the final, and I must admit that I expected Nieminen to come out ahead in that one. I've seen Mayer play some great tennis for patches, but I haven't seen him put together a week as strong as this. He's no slouch - he was the ATP newcomer of the year in 2004, between Rafael Nadal and Gael Monfils. Yeah, that award has about a 50% success ratio. And this is his third ATP final, but it is his first on hard courts, as the other two were on clay. And to be facing Roger Federer in the final? That's a big ask. The only thing he may have going for him is the fact that nobody - Federer included - gives him any chance of winning, so if he can come out in good form, he may be able to surprise the Swiss number one. But it does make sense that he's getting 10:1 odds to win the match.

In Moscow, Istomin had Baghdatis on the ropes. If I'm not mistaken, he was up a double break in the third and decisive set, only to stumble at the finish line and allow Baggy a chance to come back and take the match in a tiebreak. That's got to be disheartening for the top Uzbek player, but an impressive comeback from the Cypriot. That should make the final interesting - Troicki may be the underdog, but he's got to be fresher coming in, considering his easier semifinal match. That one could go either way - if you want to see a competitive match, rather than a pure display of skill, I suggest catching the final in Moscow, rather the Federer-Mayer final, which will be surprising if it turns out to be close.

Week 42 Semifinals

With eight players left in the two tournaments we have going on this week, there are two interesting stories to look at. The first is whether anyone can stop Roger Federer in Stockholm. Honestly, the odds are not great at this point. Federer looked beatable in the first set against compatriot Wawrinka, who came out absolutely on fire but couldn't keep up that level of play, and faded in the second and third sets, while Federer has started at less than his best, only to raise his game and come through in the end. The only other player who had a shot at beating Fed was second seed Robin Soderling, who at least has a win over Federer this year - but he was beaten by Florian Mayer, who eked out a tight first set and then ran away with the second, as a frustrated Soderling started spraying errors.

Fed still has to play Ivan Ljubicic in the semis, but Ljubicic hasn't beaten Federer since 2003, and that's quite a while ago. The other semifinalist, Jarkko Nieminen, is 0-11 against the Fed. Mayer also doesn't have a win against the former world number one. So things are looking good for Roger to clinch the title in Stockholm.

In Moscow, the story is quite different - the seeds have been dropping like flies, and only one is left. Marcos Baghdatis is also the only player left of the four semifinalists who has already won an ATP title. The other three players have yet to take one, so it will be interesting to see whether Baggy can frustrate them, or if we'll have a first-time winner this week. I think the least likely contender is probably Pablo Cuevas. He's a fine player, but this isn't his best surface. When he wins a title, I expect it will be on clay.

As for the other two players, this could be their week. Denis Istomin and Viktor Troicki are both extremely capable players on this surface, and it's only a matter of time before they each win titles. Istomin made a final this year, and lost a tight match to Sergiy Stakhovsky, while Troicki has made two finals before, even though he hasn't made one this year. Both players have showed flashes of brilliance that suggest to me that they could be bound for the top 20, if they could just work on their consistency. Both players lost excellent matches to Nadal in the past month - and even playing Nadal tough when he's on his game is an accomplishment. I'd actually like to see Istomin-Troicki in the final, but we'll just have to wait and see how it shakes out.

Week 42 Quarterfinals

The big news of the week so far is that Roger Federer played his 900th ATP-level match on Wednesday, as he brutalized poor American Taylor Dent in under an hour. He's showing no signs of slowing, and barring an injury Other than that, the other interesting story of the week has been the mass exodus of seeds from both Moscow and Stockholm. Of the sixteen seeded players, only six have made it to the quarterfinal round. And eight of those players had a first-round bye.

Three of the seeded players to crash out are still in the running for the ATP year-end finals - Mikhail Youzhny withdrew with illness, while Tomas Berdych was bested in a fairly straightforward match with the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen, and JW Tsonga was just a bit too error-prone against Viktor Troicki. He lost the second set on a fairly lucky net cord against him on break point, but he had his chances in the third set, and when the big points came up, he just couldn't find the court.

Of the remaining seeds, two of them are facing off tomorrow. Roger Federer takes on Stan Wawrinka, which has the potential to be an interesting match. Fed leads the head to head 5-1, but Wawrinka suggested that he may be a new player during the U.S. Open. He should have had enough time to recover from playing his heart out in Flushing and then in the Davis Cup playoff, so this will be an interesting test to see if new coach Peter Lundgren has really had an effect on the number two Swiss.

Hometown boy Robin Soderling gets German Florian Mayer in the quarters, and he should have a fairly easy win - Mayer can be a good player, but he isn't anywhere near consistent enough from point to point and match to match to handle the kind of player that Soderling has become. And Ivan Ljubicic gets Croatian qualifier Ivan Dodig, which should be a win for the veteran. The other quarterfinal in Stockholm is actually perhaps the most interesting, as it features a pair of veteran players on the comeback trail - James Blake and aforementioned Finn. Blake has had a much worse year (his ranking is 90 points Nieminen's) but he also leads the head-to-head 6-0. Nieminen is an exceptional mover and counter-puncher, while Blake can hit through just about anybody when he's on his game. Blake also has a great record at this tournament, so this one could be fun to watch. A great contrast in styles from two very experienced and interesting players.

The picture is even bleaker for the seeds in Moscow - and for the hometown boys as well! After Youzhny pulled out of the tournament, Davydenko lost in the first round to Pablo Cuevas, which is a match that last year's Davydenko never would have come close to losing. The only Russian left in the draw is Igor Kunitsyn, who faces off against up-and-coming Uzbek Denis Istomin. Another player in the same kind of career position is Alexandr Dolgopolov, who plays Marcos Baghdatis in the quarterfinals.

Baggy is one of the two remaining seeds in Moscow, the other being Radek Stepanek, who faces Pablo Cuevas. Neither Stepanek nor Baghdatis has had the kind of season that they would have hoped for, after great starts to the season. And Baghdatis is defending points from winning this championship last year - both could use deep runs or even a win here. The last quarterfinal is between Viktor Troicki and Horacio Zeballos. The Argentine is best on clay, and based on what I've seen from him, he always will be, while Troicki is starting to show levels of his game that I haven't seen before. He's still having problems closing out matches - see both Nadal and Djokovic in the past month - but he's played well enough to beat both of them.

We'll see if the seed exodus continues this week - we could have some relative newcomers lifting trophies come Sunday!

Shanghai Wrap-Up and Week 42 Preview

I have to admit, that was something of a surprising result. The final in Shanghai featured Andy Murray and Roger Federer, both of whom were in spectacular form coming in to the final. The pair had played some very close matches, so it was reasonable to expect another tight affair. Surprisingly, the match was something of a blowout. Even more surprising, the winner was Andy Murray - the other times their matches ended with lopsided results, it was a straightforward victory for Federer.

But this time, Murray was on the top of his game while Federer was a little bit off. He may have been a bit unlucky in the beginning of the second set, when a bad call may have cost him a point that he was forced to replay. But he wasn't unlucky on his second try, when he sailed a forehand wide under no particular pressure. Murray played some great tennis - no question about that, but Federer made too many errors on the big points.

Looking ahead to next week, there are a pair of tournaments to look at - one in Moscow and one in Stockholm. It's an odd week for tennis, because five of the world's top ten players are in action, but the 8th seed in both tournaments is ranked outside the top 35. So while there are some players to watch, the majority of the players in action are not at the top of the game just now.

That isn't to say that there aren't good matches in the early going - in Moscow, wildcard Dmitry Tursunov takes on Viktor Troicki, which should be an exciting match for the home crowd. And in Stockholm, James Blake (also in on a wildcard) faces the 7th seed Thomaz Bellucci. Those are big matches for both of these players, who are trying to make comebacks after injury layoffs. Neither one is going to be easy.

It will be interesting to see how these draws shake out - Federer really ought to win in Stockholm, and will have almost no excuse if he can't make it through the draw. The second seed is Robin Soderling, who got brutally thrashed by Federer just this last week, winning only a pair of games. On the other hand, the top seed in Moscow is on a terrible run of form. If he can put together a good week, it will really be a turnaround. He has a good chance, without too many tough opponents waiting in his way. The later stages of the tournament could get tricky, though.