No real surprises in the two Miami quarterfinals that took place today. The match between Robin Soderling and Mikhail Youzhny was Soderling's to lose. Youzhny didn't win his first service game until his fifth try, near the beginning of the second set. That gave him a momentary boost, when he broke back and evened the set, but it didn't last, as he was broken again and Soderling served it out. The Russian just didn't have any answers for Soderling today.
His opponent tomorrow, may have more to do to counter Soderling's power - he brings plenty of his own power to the table. The match between Tomas Berdych and Fernando Verdasco was exactly the type of match that the big Czech had developed a reputation for losing. Tight, against a tough player. Verdasco jumped out to an early lead and looked like he might take the match in two, but once Berdych took the tiebreak, everything was going his way. Fernando tried to stage a comeback, but Berdych held strong, in a reversal of his usual fortune in these sorts of matches. Soderling definitely has the advantage in their match-up, since he's just been playing imperious tennis so far this week, but Berdych has faced tougher competition, and he's come out on top. That could give him the confidence he needs.
The women's semifinals today were also interesting. Venus Williams dismissed Marion Bartoli without too much fuss, much as Soderling did with Youzhny. But Clijsters and Henin had a match that was even tenser than Verdasco-Berdych. In the end, it was really a lot like their meeting earlier this year in Brisbane. Three sets, a third-set tiebreak, periods of scintillating stuff, and then also some stretches of really poor, error-strewn play from both. In the end, it was a great match though, and Clijsters just barely came away with the victory. Henin has got to be eager to beat her compatriot in her comeback, as she's 0-2 so far, and now their overall head-to-head is 12-12. Doesn't get much closer than that.
Tomorrow, Roddick faces Nadal and Berdych faces Soderling. There is so much riding on it for all four of these players. Nadal hasn't won a title in almost eleven months. Berdych and Roddick haven't won a Masters title in years. Soderling has never won one. Everybody still in the running could use this to bump their career up a level - for everybody but Soderling, up to a level they've been to before but haven't been recently.
Predictions are tough in situations like this. I think Nadal and Soderling have the edge in both their matches, as both are higher ranked and have the edge in the head to head. Nadal is 5-2 against Roddick and Soderling is 4-2 against Berdych. Both Roddick and Berdych are the bookie's underdogs, too. Roddick is 3.1:1 at the moment and Berdych is 3.4:1. But those are relatively tight odds.
Roddick needs to serve well. As close to 70% as he can manage, and to win about 55% of his second serve points. But really, the big stat for Roddick tomorrow is going to be break points. Nadal will give him a couple on serve, and no matter how great he's serving, Nadal is going to get a few looks at breaking him. If Roddick can convert on his chances and save Nadal's chances, he'll win the match. Roddick hasn't really been playing like a big point or big match player for much of the year, despite his great match record. This is going to be his opportunity to show the field that he's a contender day-in, day-out, and not just when he gets particularly fire up, like he undoubtedly will at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.
For Nadal, he needs his knees to stay healthy. He's looked in fine form so far this tournament, but any hint of pain that could threaten his claycourt season is going to worry him a lot. He may be more careful as a result, so he'll need to watch out if Roddick tries to spread the court. He'll need his forehand to be firing, and he'll need to get a read on the Roddick serve, as well as to take care of his own deal on serve. But just like for Andy, it all comes down to the big points. If he can convert more often than his opponent, he's going to win.
It's harder to say as much about the Berdych-Soderling match, as both players have the ability to hit each other off the court. For these guys, it's going to come down to consistency. While Roddick and Nadal can both be expected to be on top of their games from the first ball, Berdych and Soderling can both be prone to lulls. If the other player manages to capitalize when his opponent isn't playing his best, that could be enough to win a set, or even the match. Both players have really high ball tosses on their serve, so a windy evening could wreak havoc with their games.
Anybody could walk away with this title on Sunday, so I'm eager to see what happens tomorrow.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Miami Quarterfinals - Day 2
One of the men's semifinals is set, and it was the one that everyone expected after Novak Djokovic lost in the second round to Olivier Rochus. Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal both breezed through their quarterfinal matches against potentially dangerous, big-hitting opponents. Roddick and Nadal were both just more solid than their opponents on the big points. Roddick broke Almagro three times and Nadal broke Tsonga four, while neither was broken. Tsonga had more chances against Nadal, so he'll feel like he had more of an opportunity. After going 0 for 8 as Tsonga did, Almagro can't feel too bad about missing both of his chances.
It will be interesting to see how things go in the Roddick-Nadal match-up on Friday. Roddick is the better server, Nadal the better returner, but their gameplans off the ground are not that different at this point. Nadal might just do it better. Roddick will have to be serving well and be able to take advantage of any lapse in Nadal's play during their semifinal meeting.
Based on the remaining competition in the other half of the draw, it seems likely that the winner of that semi will win the final as well, but who is to say? On the other side, with the quarterfinal matches still to be decided, we have Tomas Berdych against Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny against Robin Soderling.
Berdych and Verdasco should be an interesting match-up. Big forehand against big forehand, and since Verdasco is a lefty, I expect that there will be a lot of forehand to backhand exchanges while the backhander tries to run around and hit a forehand down the line. That is, if the other player doesn't smack a winner first. Berdych has the edge in experience at this level, and he has a better serve as well, but Verdasco is the better mover by a pretty good margin. It should be an interesting match, and tough to call. Berdych could easily still be so relieved from his win over Federer that he'll be hung over for this match.
The other quarter appears to be a lock for Robin Soderling. Youzhny is a talented player and a one-time slam semifinalist, back at the U.S. Open in 2006, but his career has been characterized in large part the same way that Soderling's was until last year - lots of talent, but unable to win the big matches. In fact, prior to the French Open last year, Youzhny and Soderling had very similar careers and places in the tennis hierarchy. The Swede, of course, has ascended pretty near the top, while Youzhny is still not quite at that level. As far as the actual match-up goes, I don't think Youzhny is as capable of handling Soderling's power off the ground. Youzhny can't have any lapses like he did against Wawrinka, earlier in the tournament, but he should be well-rested, since he got a retirement from Fish in the last round. The edge goes to Soderling here, no question, but Youzhny could make it interesting if he plays at his best.
The women's semifinals are also going to take place tomorrow, and I got three of my four picks right. The only spoiler was Marion Bartoli, who upset Yanina Wickmeyer to get a shot at Venus, in a rematch of the Wimbledon final from a few years ago. I predict the same result as before. The other semi is much more difficult to guess, as the remaining two Belgians square off. Clijsters beat Henin in their only match since their dual comebacks so far, but it was so tight and Justine has played a lot in the intervening time. Really, too close to call. Justine looked really solid against Wozniacki, but Clijsters knows Henin's game better and won't get as frustrated. That's a popcorn match, no question. And then the winner, in all likelihood, gets Venus? The only way to improve that lineup is to replace Bartoli with Serena, and that's the most star-studded and power-packed tennis semifinal you could have in the current game. So let's see how Bartoli can do in trying to spoil the dream final that everyone (especially the promoters) want to see.
It will be interesting to see how things go in the Roddick-Nadal match-up on Friday. Roddick is the better server, Nadal the better returner, but their gameplans off the ground are not that different at this point. Nadal might just do it better. Roddick will have to be serving well and be able to take advantage of any lapse in Nadal's play during their semifinal meeting.
Based on the remaining competition in the other half of the draw, it seems likely that the winner of that semi will win the final as well, but who is to say? On the other side, with the quarterfinal matches still to be decided, we have Tomas Berdych against Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny against Robin Soderling.
Berdych and Verdasco should be an interesting match-up. Big forehand against big forehand, and since Verdasco is a lefty, I expect that there will be a lot of forehand to backhand exchanges while the backhander tries to run around and hit a forehand down the line. That is, if the other player doesn't smack a winner first. Berdych has the edge in experience at this level, and he has a better serve as well, but Verdasco is the better mover by a pretty good margin. It should be an interesting match, and tough to call. Berdych could easily still be so relieved from his win over Federer that he'll be hung over for this match.
The other quarter appears to be a lock for Robin Soderling. Youzhny is a talented player and a one-time slam semifinalist, back at the U.S. Open in 2006, but his career has been characterized in large part the same way that Soderling's was until last year - lots of talent, but unable to win the big matches. In fact, prior to the French Open last year, Youzhny and Soderling had very similar careers and places in the tennis hierarchy. The Swede, of course, has ascended pretty near the top, while Youzhny is still not quite at that level. As far as the actual match-up goes, I don't think Youzhny is as capable of handling Soderling's power off the ground. Youzhny can't have any lapses like he did against Wawrinka, earlier in the tournament, but he should be well-rested, since he got a retirement from Fish in the last round. The edge goes to Soderling here, no question, but Youzhny could make it interesting if he plays at his best.
The women's semifinals are also going to take place tomorrow, and I got three of my four picks right. The only spoiler was Marion Bartoli, who upset Yanina Wickmeyer to get a shot at Venus, in a rematch of the Wimbledon final from a few years ago. I predict the same result as before. The other semi is much more difficult to guess, as the remaining two Belgians square off. Clijsters beat Henin in their only match since their dual comebacks so far, but it was so tight and Justine has played a lot in the intervening time. Really, too close to call. Justine looked really solid against Wozniacki, but Clijsters knows Henin's game better and won't get as frustrated. That's a popcorn match, no question. And then the winner, in all likelihood, gets Venus? The only way to improve that lineup is to replace Bartoli with Serena, and that's the most star-studded and power-packed tennis semifinal you could have in the current game. So let's see how Bartoli can do in trying to spoil the dream final that everyone (especially the promoters) want to see.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Miami Quarterfinals
It looked like most of the day would go by without any particularly stunning upsets. Almagro had beaten Bellucci and Verdasco had beaten Cilic, but those matches were always going to be tight. They weren't stunning upsets. Marion Bartoli had beaten Yanina Wickmeyer, but again, they are very close in the rankings and it was tight.
And then, Tomas Berdych produced the upset of the week. He was 1-8 going into this match against Roger Federer, and hadn't won since the Olympics in 2004. Everyone remembers the Czech's epic choke job against the Swiss in the 2009 Australian Open, when he he was up 2 sets to love, and had a point to break and go up 5-4 in the third, so he could serve for the match. He duffed a shot into the net, and from that point on, Federer's comeback never seemed to be in doubt.
Tonight, Berdych started slow, with Federer breaking him in the first game, but the big man stormed back to take the set 6-4 on the strength of two breaks. He was two points from the match in the second set, but ended up losing it in an error-filled tiebreak. The third set also went to a tiebreak, and Federer had match point on his own serve, which Berdych gamely saved with a few of his trademark massive forehands. Then Federer sailed a shot long and it was all over.
Huge, huge win for Berdych. His half of the draw is decimated, as he's eliminated the last real contender for the title. One of the four players left on his side is making it to the final - in addition to Berdych, there is Verdasco, Youzhny, and Soderling. Berdych is the only one who has made it past this stage at a Masters event (except for the Swede, who made the semis in Indian Wells last week) but for all the other players left, this is going to be uncharted territory. It's going to a hard-fought place in the finals, as all four of the remaining players know that they could have a shot at a Masters shield.
The bottom half of the draw is relatively tough, with three top-ten players remaining instead of only one. The only three-set match from the bottom half of the draw today was between Tomaz Bellucci and Nicolas Almagro. Almagro does seem to enjoy being the villain, as he relished in his role against the heavily pro-Brazilian crowd. He'll be even more of an antagonist against Roddick tomorrow, but if he can hit as well as he can, he might trouble the American.
Particularly if Roddick gets out of the gates going as slowly as he did against Becker today. I think that Andy was just late getting to the court, because he dropped serve in his first service game of the match, and saved three break point chances to keep himself from being down 1-5. After saving that, he decided to start playing, so he quickly broke back and ended up winning the set in a tiebreak. That set was nearly a lost cause, so credit Roddick for not giving up and thinking about winning in three. His opponent came off the blocks playing like Boris Becker, not Benjamin, but he couldn't keep up that pace.
The other two matches were slightly less interesting, as Tsonga just bludgeoned Juan Carlos Ferrero off the court and Nadal once again outplayed his good friend and fellow Spaniard David Ferrer on the big points. Lots of grinding, long rallies, few winners, and Nadal on top. About as one would expect. When they face each other, Nadal can expect Tsonga to come to net more often, and to go for his shots a lot more. It could be an entertaining match. After dismantling Nadal in the semifinals of the Australian Open in 2008, Tsonga has gone 0-3 against the Spaniard, but as Berdych demonstrated, those streaks aren't destiny.
Nadal is now the last of the big four remaining, just like last week. I know he'll want to take advantage of it, but he's going to want to start getting ready for the Clay court tournament in Monty Carlo, which is only a week and a half away at this point. That's his bread and butter, and he has a lot of points to defend in the clay court season. There's a lot on Nadal's mind, at this point.
On the women's side, both Belgians are in action tomorrow. Both matches should be interesting becaues of their contrast. Hard-hitting, baseliner Kim Clijsters takes on former doubles specialist and expert volleyer Sam Stosur, while all-court veteran Justine Henin takes on the 20-year old Dane Caroline Wozniacki. I like the Belgians in both matches, but they've shown that they're capable of lapses in focus over the course of the year.
I can say with some certainty that there won't be any Federer-level upsets from this point on; there aren't any players left whose departure would be that much of a surprise!
And then, Tomas Berdych produced the upset of the week. He was 1-8 going into this match against Roger Federer, and hadn't won since the Olympics in 2004. Everyone remembers the Czech's epic choke job against the Swiss in the 2009 Australian Open, when he he was up 2 sets to love, and had a point to break and go up 5-4 in the third, so he could serve for the match. He duffed a shot into the net, and from that point on, Federer's comeback never seemed to be in doubt.
Tonight, Berdych started slow, with Federer breaking him in the first game, but the big man stormed back to take the set 6-4 on the strength of two breaks. He was two points from the match in the second set, but ended up losing it in an error-filled tiebreak. The third set also went to a tiebreak, and Federer had match point on his own serve, which Berdych gamely saved with a few of his trademark massive forehands. Then Federer sailed a shot long and it was all over.
Huge, huge win for Berdych. His half of the draw is decimated, as he's eliminated the last real contender for the title. One of the four players left on his side is making it to the final - in addition to Berdych, there is Verdasco, Youzhny, and Soderling. Berdych is the only one who has made it past this stage at a Masters event (except for the Swede, who made the semis in Indian Wells last week) but for all the other players left, this is going to be uncharted territory. It's going to a hard-fought place in the finals, as all four of the remaining players know that they could have a shot at a Masters shield.
The bottom half of the draw is relatively tough, with three top-ten players remaining instead of only one. The only three-set match from the bottom half of the draw today was between Tomaz Bellucci and Nicolas Almagro. Almagro does seem to enjoy being the villain, as he relished in his role against the heavily pro-Brazilian crowd. He'll be even more of an antagonist against Roddick tomorrow, but if he can hit as well as he can, he might trouble the American.
Particularly if Roddick gets out of the gates going as slowly as he did against Becker today. I think that Andy was just late getting to the court, because he dropped serve in his first service game of the match, and saved three break point chances to keep himself from being down 1-5. After saving that, he decided to start playing, so he quickly broke back and ended up winning the set in a tiebreak. That set was nearly a lost cause, so credit Roddick for not giving up and thinking about winning in three. His opponent came off the blocks playing like Boris Becker, not Benjamin, but he couldn't keep up that pace.
The other two matches were slightly less interesting, as Tsonga just bludgeoned Juan Carlos Ferrero off the court and Nadal once again outplayed his good friend and fellow Spaniard David Ferrer on the big points. Lots of grinding, long rallies, few winners, and Nadal on top. About as one would expect. When they face each other, Nadal can expect Tsonga to come to net more often, and to go for his shots a lot more. It could be an entertaining match. After dismantling Nadal in the semifinals of the Australian Open in 2008, Tsonga has gone 0-3 against the Spaniard, but as Berdych demonstrated, those streaks aren't destiny.
Nadal is now the last of the big four remaining, just like last week. I know he'll want to take advantage of it, but he's going to want to start getting ready for the Clay court tournament in Monty Carlo, which is only a week and a half away at this point. That's his bread and butter, and he has a lot of points to defend in the clay court season. There's a lot on Nadal's mind, at this point.
On the women's side, both Belgians are in action tomorrow. Both matches should be interesting becaues of their contrast. Hard-hitting, baseliner Kim Clijsters takes on former doubles specialist and expert volleyer Sam Stosur, while all-court veteran Justine Henin takes on the 20-year old Dane Caroline Wozniacki. I like the Belgians in both matches, but they've shown that they're capable of lapses in focus over the course of the year.
I can say with some certainty that there won't be any Federer-level upsets from this point on; there aren't any players left whose departure would be that much of a surprise!
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Miami Round of 16
At last, we had a day go by without any major upsets on the men's side. The only nominal upset was American Mardy fish over Spaniard Feliciano Lopez, but Fish is so under-ranked thanked to injury, that this match was always going to tight. Other than that, the matches went by ranking on the men's side, though a few were close.
Federer should have taken care of Florent Serra without breaking a sweat. He was up a break in the first set, and up two breaks in the second, but he ended up needing two tiebreaks to win the match. A win is a win, and straight sets is good, but Federer has to be disappointed in squandering such a lead and turning what should have been a blowout into a tight match.
Mikhail Youzhny opted to wait until the second set to show up in his match against Stan Wawrinka. After losing the first set 1-6, he won the second set in a tiebreak and then won the third 7-5. Tough loss for Wawrinka, who just couldn't close out the Russian when the match got tight. Another player who missed out on a big scalp was Jurgen Melzer, who was dominating the match as it entered a second-set tiebreak. After he failed to capitalize, he faded, and Verdasco ran away with the third. Tough losses for both guys.
There were a few upsets on the women's side. Most notably, top seed Svetlana Kuznetsova lost to Frenchwoman Marion Bartoli. Kuznetsova has completely failed to capitalize on being the top seed at these two tournaments, not even making the quarterfinals at either Indian Wells or Miami. Tough year so far for last year's French Open champion. There were three other upsets, and two featured Belgians. Justine Henin beat eleventh seed Vera Zvonareva, while Kim Clijsters bludgeoned last year's champ Victoria Azarenka off the court. Sam Stosur also managed to beat last week's winner Jelena Jankovic, but she must have been exhausted.
Tomorrow, the men's remaining 16 players are all in action, so it goes without saying that there are some good matches to look at.
The least interesting match-up going on tomorrow is Tomaz Bellucci against Nicolas Almagro. It should be interesting - Bellucci is a solid young player who still doesn't have that many wins against the big guys, while Almagro can hit anyone off the court, including himself if he's not on during a particular match. This is Almagro's match to win or lose; it's somewhat out of the Brazilian's hands.
The winner of that match will face the winner of Andy Roddick and Benjamin Becker. That is to say, the winner faces Andy Roddick. Becker will have to play the match of his life to beat Roddick tomorrow, which is a possibility. The other chance is that Roddick is just starting to get tired from playing so much tennis, but otherwise, I see the American getting through.
The quarter opposite Roddick is much tighter. JW Tsonga plays against Juan Carlos Ferrero, which is a favorable match-up for the Frenchman, but Ferrero has been playing some excellent tennis in the last six weeks or so, so this could be tight. Another two Spaniards make up the other match to determine the quarterfinal, as Rafael Nadal plays David Ferrer. Ferrer has beaten Nadal twice on hardcourts, but has also lost once. Overall, he's 3-8, so he's definitely the underdog, but expect this to be a tough, grinding match.
In the opposite half of the draw, I think every match could go either way. Mardy Fish really is a real question mark, since he has been injured, but has done a lot of fitness training in his time off. If Youzhny goes off the boil, as he did at the beginning of the match today, then Fish has a real chance of making the quarters. His opponent will be a huge hitter, no matter what. Soderling and Gonzalez should feature some of the most serious ball striking you can ever hope to see. Gonzo is playing for his country in a way that one doesn't usually see outside of Davis Cup or the Olympics, so I give him the slight edge to upset the Swede.
In the opposite quarter, Cilic and Verdasco probably couldn't be any closer. Their record is 2-2. Both have been having good years but haven't had really great results lately. On paper, I give Cilic the advantage, but this is basically a pick-em for me. The last match of the day is Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych, who has managed one big win over Federer that looked like it augered well for his future, and since then, he's lost eight times in a row. He could pull the upset, but he's made a career of underachieving, so there's no real reason to think he won't this time around.
In the Women's game, expect a possible semifinal of three Belgians and Venus Williams. Wozniacki could beat Justine Henin (which might qualify as an upset, even though the Dane is number 2 in the world) but otherwise, that's both what I see in the future and what I hope to be able to watch.
Federer should have taken care of Florent Serra without breaking a sweat. He was up a break in the first set, and up two breaks in the second, but he ended up needing two tiebreaks to win the match. A win is a win, and straight sets is good, but Federer has to be disappointed in squandering such a lead and turning what should have been a blowout into a tight match.
Mikhail Youzhny opted to wait until the second set to show up in his match against Stan Wawrinka. After losing the first set 1-6, he won the second set in a tiebreak and then won the third 7-5. Tough loss for Wawrinka, who just couldn't close out the Russian when the match got tight. Another player who missed out on a big scalp was Jurgen Melzer, who was dominating the match as it entered a second-set tiebreak. After he failed to capitalize, he faded, and Verdasco ran away with the third. Tough losses for both guys.
There were a few upsets on the women's side. Most notably, top seed Svetlana Kuznetsova lost to Frenchwoman Marion Bartoli. Kuznetsova has completely failed to capitalize on being the top seed at these two tournaments, not even making the quarterfinals at either Indian Wells or Miami. Tough year so far for last year's French Open champion. There were three other upsets, and two featured Belgians. Justine Henin beat eleventh seed Vera Zvonareva, while Kim Clijsters bludgeoned last year's champ Victoria Azarenka off the court. Sam Stosur also managed to beat last week's winner Jelena Jankovic, but she must have been exhausted.
Tomorrow, the men's remaining 16 players are all in action, so it goes without saying that there are some good matches to look at.
The least interesting match-up going on tomorrow is Tomaz Bellucci against Nicolas Almagro. It should be interesting - Bellucci is a solid young player who still doesn't have that many wins against the big guys, while Almagro can hit anyone off the court, including himself if he's not on during a particular match. This is Almagro's match to win or lose; it's somewhat out of the Brazilian's hands.
The winner of that match will face the winner of Andy Roddick and Benjamin Becker. That is to say, the winner faces Andy Roddick. Becker will have to play the match of his life to beat Roddick tomorrow, which is a possibility. The other chance is that Roddick is just starting to get tired from playing so much tennis, but otherwise, I see the American getting through.
The quarter opposite Roddick is much tighter. JW Tsonga plays against Juan Carlos Ferrero, which is a favorable match-up for the Frenchman, but Ferrero has been playing some excellent tennis in the last six weeks or so, so this could be tight. Another two Spaniards make up the other match to determine the quarterfinal, as Rafael Nadal plays David Ferrer. Ferrer has beaten Nadal twice on hardcourts, but has also lost once. Overall, he's 3-8, so he's definitely the underdog, but expect this to be a tough, grinding match.
In the opposite half of the draw, I think every match could go either way. Mardy Fish really is a real question mark, since he has been injured, but has done a lot of fitness training in his time off. If Youzhny goes off the boil, as he did at the beginning of the match today, then Fish has a real chance of making the quarters. His opponent will be a huge hitter, no matter what. Soderling and Gonzalez should feature some of the most serious ball striking you can ever hope to see. Gonzo is playing for his country in a way that one doesn't usually see outside of Davis Cup or the Olympics, so I give him the slight edge to upset the Swede.
In the opposite quarter, Cilic and Verdasco probably couldn't be any closer. Their record is 2-2. Both have been having good years but haven't had really great results lately. On paper, I give Cilic the advantage, but this is basically a pick-em for me. The last match of the day is Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych, who has managed one big win over Federer that looked like it augered well for his future, and since then, he's lost eight times in a row. He could pull the upset, but he's made a career of underachieving, so there's no real reason to think he won't this time around.
In the Women's game, expect a possible semifinal of three Belgians and Venus Williams. Wozniacki could beat Justine Henin (which might qualify as an upset, even though the Dane is number 2 in the world) but otherwise, that's both what I see in the future and what I hope to be able to watch.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Miami Third Round
This Sunday, the first day of the tournament went by without any major upsets, even though it looked like we might have had one in the making early on, when David Nalbandian managed to take the first set from Rafael Nadal in a very tight tiebreak, only to have Nadal reassert his authority and win the next two sets 6-2, 6-2. Really, an encouraging performance from both players. Good for Nalbandian, for being able to hang with Nadal for one set, and Nadal, for coming back after he's down and keeping the upset bug off his back for another match. I hope to see the Argentine continue to recover, and get him back to the top levels of the game.
Roddick didn't give his opponent a chance to get into the match. He won 76% of his service points and 56% of his points on return, and - most importantly for Roddick - four out of four break point chances. Really, an excellent show from the top American. If he hadn't been playing Ukrainian Sergiy Stakhovsky, it might have really meant something. For Roddick, though, this draw couldn't be opening much better. The only significant upset of the day was Benjamin Becker over Tommy Robredo, who was set to be Roddick's next opponent. Roddick is only 3-0 against Becker, rather than 10-0 against Robredo, but it's still a favorable match-up. In the quarters, he'll get either Almagro or Bellucci, two strong players, but not players you normally expect to meet in the quarterfinals of a tournament of this caliber.
Across the draw from Roddick, things are looking tougher. The two big servers lost, which means the round of 16 features three Spaniards all more suited to clay - Nadal, Ferrer, and Ferrero - and oen Frenchman, JW Tsonga. Tough to pick who's going to come through on that side.
Tomorrow, there are some excellent matches to look forward to. It's tough to see another huge upset in the cards, but there are certainly some tight ones. I'm disappointed to see that Youzhny-Wawrinka is put all the way out on court 2, because that match could be a corker, and whoever wins doesn't have to play Andy Murray to get to the quarters, so they know what's at stake. They'll play the winner of Mardy Fish and Feliciano Lopez, so let's see if Fish can follow up his big upset, or if that had more to do with Murray's lack of performance. Olivier Rochus fell in the next round after downing Djokovic, so that may have really been the Serbian's poor play rather than the Belgian raising his game.
Another potential crackerjack match features Marcos Baghdatis adn Marin Cilic, two of the most winning players on tour so far this year. A Cilic loss would only be a very minor upset, considering his level of play since the Davis Cup break, and considering that Baghdatis upset Federer last week in Indian Wells. Speaking of Federer, he should have no trouble with Frenchman Florent Serra. But once he gets past that match, he'll likely find himself facing Tomas Berdych in the next round, and Berdych, if he puts together a good match, has a chance against the Fed. He had him on the ropes in the 2009 Aussie Open, and I know he'd like another chance.
Verdasco-Melzer and Monaco-Gonzalez are also both potentially interesting matches, and I wouldn't be surprised with either player coming out on top. Gonzalez is playing for more than he usually is, as he is trying to get support and contributions for earthquake relief in Chile. If he makes a run, it could really become the story of the tournament, but it's a bit early for that, so far. Expect Soderling to beat Petzschner without much trouble.
Maybe there wasn't really an upset bug going around this week, but Murray and Djokovic were just feeling the grind of playing at their best, week in and week out. They've been playing a lot of tennis, and maybe they just need a break. We'll see if the time off before the claycourt season starts in earnest is enough for them to get their heads together.
In the meantime, things here at Miami are really interesting. We don't have the big four anymore, but two of them - and no matter what the rankings say, the top two - are still remaining. We could still get a Federer-Nadal final at this point, which would seem appropriate. Whenever people seem to be saying that it's the end of the old guard, that tends to happen. Of course, we could also have another set of surprise finalists. Roddick seems like the surest bet to make it to the semis, but he's got to be tired. Nadal, too. I'm anxious to see how this plays out over the next week.
Roddick didn't give his opponent a chance to get into the match. He won 76% of his service points and 56% of his points on return, and - most importantly for Roddick - four out of four break point chances. Really, an excellent show from the top American. If he hadn't been playing Ukrainian Sergiy Stakhovsky, it might have really meant something. For Roddick, though, this draw couldn't be opening much better. The only significant upset of the day was Benjamin Becker over Tommy Robredo, who was set to be Roddick's next opponent. Roddick is only 3-0 against Becker, rather than 10-0 against Robredo, but it's still a favorable match-up. In the quarters, he'll get either Almagro or Bellucci, two strong players, but not players you normally expect to meet in the quarterfinals of a tournament of this caliber.
Across the draw from Roddick, things are looking tougher. The two big servers lost, which means the round of 16 features three Spaniards all more suited to clay - Nadal, Ferrer, and Ferrero - and oen Frenchman, JW Tsonga. Tough to pick who's going to come through on that side.
Tomorrow, there are some excellent matches to look forward to. It's tough to see another huge upset in the cards, but there are certainly some tight ones. I'm disappointed to see that Youzhny-Wawrinka is put all the way out on court 2, because that match could be a corker, and whoever wins doesn't have to play Andy Murray to get to the quarters, so they know what's at stake. They'll play the winner of Mardy Fish and Feliciano Lopez, so let's see if Fish can follow up his big upset, or if that had more to do with Murray's lack of performance. Olivier Rochus fell in the next round after downing Djokovic, so that may have really been the Serbian's poor play rather than the Belgian raising his game.
Another potential crackerjack match features Marcos Baghdatis adn Marin Cilic, two of the most winning players on tour so far this year. A Cilic loss would only be a very minor upset, considering his level of play since the Davis Cup break, and considering that Baghdatis upset Federer last week in Indian Wells. Speaking of Federer, he should have no trouble with Frenchman Florent Serra. But once he gets past that match, he'll likely find himself facing Tomas Berdych in the next round, and Berdych, if he puts together a good match, has a chance against the Fed. He had him on the ropes in the 2009 Aussie Open, and I know he'd like another chance.
Verdasco-Melzer and Monaco-Gonzalez are also both potentially interesting matches, and I wouldn't be surprised with either player coming out on top. Gonzalez is playing for more than he usually is, as he is trying to get support and contributions for earthquake relief in Chile. If he makes a run, it could really become the story of the tournament, but it's a bit early for that, so far. Expect Soderling to beat Petzschner without much trouble.
Maybe there wasn't really an upset bug going around this week, but Murray and Djokovic were just feeling the grind of playing at their best, week in and week out. They've been playing a lot of tennis, and maybe they just need a break. We'll see if the time off before the claycourt season starts in earnest is enough for them to get their heads together.
In the meantime, things here at Miami are really interesting. We don't have the big four anymore, but two of them - and no matter what the rankings say, the top two - are still remaining. We could still get a Federer-Nadal final at this point, which would seem appropriate. Whenever people seem to be saying that it's the end of the old guard, that tends to happen. Of course, we could also have another set of surprise finalists. Roddick seems like the surest bet to make it to the semis, but he's got to be tired. Nadal, too. I'm anxious to see how this plays out over the next week.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Miami Second Round, Part 2
While the seeds did fare slightly better in today's action, with only four falling rather than five, it still featured one major, major upset. Mardy Fish bucked the trend of American players underperforming by ousting a lackluster defending champion Andy Murray in straight sets. Despite making the finals at the Australian Open earlier this year, Andy Murray has not had the year he was hoping for, and to finish off the first hard court swing of the tour on such a sour note is not going to be encouraging.
Mardy Fish, on the other hand, really needs to build on this victory. Unfortunately, his section of the draw is still killer. He'll face Feliciano Lopez next, and if he can get through that, he'll get the winner of the toughest third-round match in the draw, which features Youzhny and Wawrinka. Fish will need them to wear each other out, unless he really is playing at his best. But beating a top player on an off-day is different than making a deep run, and he'll need to be consistent in order to do that.
The other upsets of the day were less surprising. Gilles Simon and Albert Montanes lost, as did Janko Tipsarevic. But none of them were picked as potential winners of the tournament, so Andy Murray is the real shocker of the day. The upset bug continues to be the story around the ground for a second tournament in a row.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's play, it's tough for me to see as many upsets in the cards, if only because there aren't that many seeds even left to upset. There are matches that could go either way, and feature some excellent players, so I suggest checking them out if you can. Rafael Nadal and David Nalbandian play on center court tomorrow, and if Nalby was ranked as high as he should be, that would be at least a quarterfinal. They have had a good rivalry in the past, and Nalbandian's loss to Nadal at last year's Indian Wells tournament was a thriller. It'll be interesting to see how healthy the Argentine really is in tomorrow's match with Nadal.
Some of the upsetters from the previous round need to see if they can go one further tomorrow, as Olivier Rochus takes on Tomaz Bellucci, and Jeremy Chardy faces Nicolas Almagro. There are also two very interesting matches tomorrow which are mirror images of each other, even though the players facing each other in each match are polar opposites. John Isner takes on Juan Carlos Ferrero while Ivo Karlovic faces David Ferrer. These could be very similar matches, as they appear to be on the surface.
Both Belgians are also in action, and they're both hoping to have a deep run, as they're not going to get many more tournaments this year that don't feature Serena Williams. Also, look for Andy Roddick and JW Tsonga to get through their matches without too much trouble. Or perhaps not - maybe the upset bug as a few matches to tip against the favorite?
Mardy Fish, on the other hand, really needs to build on this victory. Unfortunately, his section of the draw is still killer. He'll face Feliciano Lopez next, and if he can get through that, he'll get the winner of the toughest third-round match in the draw, which features Youzhny and Wawrinka. Fish will need them to wear each other out, unless he really is playing at his best. But beating a top player on an off-day is different than making a deep run, and he'll need to be consistent in order to do that.
The other upsets of the day were less surprising. Gilles Simon and Albert Montanes lost, as did Janko Tipsarevic. But none of them were picked as potential winners of the tournament, so Andy Murray is the real shocker of the day. The upset bug continues to be the story around the ground for a second tournament in a row.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's play, it's tough for me to see as many upsets in the cards, if only because there aren't that many seeds even left to upset. There are matches that could go either way, and feature some excellent players, so I suggest checking them out if you can. Rafael Nadal and David Nalbandian play on center court tomorrow, and if Nalby was ranked as high as he should be, that would be at least a quarterfinal. They have had a good rivalry in the past, and Nalbandian's loss to Nadal at last year's Indian Wells tournament was a thriller. It'll be interesting to see how healthy the Argentine really is in tomorrow's match with Nadal.
Some of the upsetters from the previous round need to see if they can go one further tomorrow, as Olivier Rochus takes on Tomaz Bellucci, and Jeremy Chardy faces Nicolas Almagro. There are also two very interesting matches tomorrow which are mirror images of each other, even though the players facing each other in each match are polar opposites. John Isner takes on Juan Carlos Ferrero while Ivo Karlovic faces David Ferrer. These could be very similar matches, as they appear to be on the surface.
Both Belgians are also in action, and they're both hoping to have a deep run, as they're not going to get many more tournaments this year that don't feature Serena Williams. Also, look for Andy Roddick and JW Tsonga to get through their matches without too much trouble. Or perhaps not - maybe the upset bug as a few matches to tip against the favorite?
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