Murray emerges from the battle of the Andys the clear winner, not being bothered by his back even a little bit. I think Murray might just be the favorite, going into the Australian Open, which is unusual, since he lost in the first round last year and there are about a half-dozen grand slam champs in the field that have a reasonable shot.
Schuettler pulled out of the tournament in Chennai, sending local wildcard Devvarman to the final in less than thrilling fashion, but it's still exciting for his run to continue! He's now up against Cilic in the final, and I think that Marin has to come out on top on this one. In Brisbane, Verdasco is a set up on Stepanek even as I type. I expect Fernando to win it. It should be a nice start to the season for both of them.
Fernando is also in the doubles final, against Marc Gicquel and Tsonga. That should be an interesting match. In Chennai, Wawrinka and Jean-Claude Scherrer (who?) are up against American duo Eric Butorac and Rajeev Ram. I'm impressed to see Tsonga and Wawrinka stick to their doubles play even after they lost in singles. It paid off for Nadal - can it pay for them, too?
Looking ahead to next week, Djokovic asked for a wildcard into the tournament in Sydney, so he could get some more match play. A good idea, since it's probably not too terribly wise to start off the first Grand Slam of the year having played one match and lost it. He'll start against either P.H. Mathieu or Andreas Seppi. If he makes it to the semis, he could find Tsonga - they've got a fun rivalry going, so that would be fun.
The bottom half of the draw is relatively loaded, with Gasquet, Simon, Stepanek, Nalbandian, Fish, Hewitt, and defending champ Tursunov. It's tough to pick a likely semi from that group. But looking at some exciting first-round matches, you've got Gasquet-Tursunov and Fish against Tipsarevic. Nieminen against Feliciano Lopez could be fun, too.
In the Sydney quallies, there's only one round left to play, but one of my favorites is still up for a spot. Canadian Frank Dancevic just has to beat Alberto Martin. Go Frank! Kevin Anderson lost a tough three-setter to Denis Gremelmeyer, and Xavier Malisse has some good wins, too.
The other tournament taking place next week is in Auckland, and it features Juan Martin Del Potro as the number one seed. It isn't the most dynamic field, but there are some very interesting players that I hope to see do well. Kei Nishikori opens up against former number one Juan Carlos Ferrero. That's a tough first-round for the Japanese teen. Sam Querrey opens against a New Zealand wildcard ranked 463. Sam had better win that. Robby Ginepri also opens against a local wildcard ranked outside 400. Lucky draws for the Americans.
The other first-round matches I'm interested in are Viktor Troicki against Igor Kunitsyn and Ernests Gulbis against Marcel Granollers. If Gulbis can win that, he'll be rewarded with a match against Del Potro. Can he knock out the number one seed in two consecutive weeks?
As for the Auckland quallies, Gilles Muller, Bobby Reynolds, and John Isner are all one win from the main draw. I'd like to see them all in it. After Muller's fantastic run at the U.S. Open last year (I watched two of his wins in person), I want him to get a ranking where he can get some direct entrances into these tournaments.
Some players are resting up for the AO, which starts in a mere week's time. Others are getting some match play in. It's funny that the first major tournament of the year comes so quickly, once the season gets started. That's why, I think, the Australian Open has a tendency to produce more surprise winners than the other three grand slams. We'll see what happens this year.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Murray the next number one?
Murray beat Federer in three sets, but it wasn't as tight as it sounds. It was tight in the first set, which Fed won in a tie-break, then he started spraying errors off his forehand and the Scot won the second and third sets 6-2, 6-2. Much more surprisingly, Andy Roddick was able to beat Gael Monfils. Apparently, Roddick's steady high-level of play was enough to get him past an intermittently spectacular Frenchman.
However, Roddick will need to be more than steady to beat Murray in the final. He'll have to play out of his mind, serving at least 70% and having a lot of success at the net. I really think Roddick's best chance is if Murray's back trouble, which seemed to be a problem for him in the Federer match, keeps him from playing at the top of his game.
Props to Nadal for continuing in the doubles, and eventually winning the Doha title. He could have pulled out and headed to Melbourne for some extra AO training. And beating Nestor & Zimonjic? That's a serious pair of doubles players, right there. Maybe Nadal could add a doubles Grand Slam to his title list?
The Brisbane final is also set - Stepanek against Verdasco? Weird. I don't know who to pick in this one, since I would have bet against both of them in the semis. They're both very talented players who can just go away for no good reason, so it will go to whoever holds it together.
In Chennai, the hometown hero Devvarman continues his improbable run, managing to hold Karlovic to only 10 aces and beating him in two sets. He's up against Schuettler, who is also impressing. I'd love to see the wildcard continue on. The other semifinal is Cilic-Granollers, and this should really go to Cilic. It would be interesting if Schuettler could win, since he hasn't even been to an ATP final since 2004.
Kudos to Elena Dementieva, who won the first women's title of the season. Maybe she'll get back to her first slam final since 2004 this year. It was a real shame to see Mauresmo retire against Bartoli trailing 4-0 in the first set. That does not bode well for the Frenchwoman's chances at a career Renaissance this year. Azarenka-Bartoli should be an intriguing final.
However, Roddick will need to be more than steady to beat Murray in the final. He'll have to play out of his mind, serving at least 70% and having a lot of success at the net. I really think Roddick's best chance is if Murray's back trouble, which seemed to be a problem for him in the Federer match, keeps him from playing at the top of his game.
Props to Nadal for continuing in the doubles, and eventually winning the Doha title. He could have pulled out and headed to Melbourne for some extra AO training. And beating Nestor & Zimonjic? That's a serious pair of doubles players, right there. Maybe Nadal could add a doubles Grand Slam to his title list?
The Brisbane final is also set - Stepanek against Verdasco? Weird. I don't know who to pick in this one, since I would have bet against both of them in the semis. They're both very talented players who can just go away for no good reason, so it will go to whoever holds it together.
In Chennai, the hometown hero Devvarman continues his improbable run, managing to hold Karlovic to only 10 aces and beating him in two sets. He's up against Schuettler, who is also impressing. I'd love to see the wildcard continue on. The other semifinal is Cilic-Granollers, and this should really go to Cilic. It would be interesting if Schuettler could win, since he hasn't even been to an ATP final since 2004.
Kudos to Elena Dementieva, who won the first women's title of the season. Maybe she'll get back to her first slam final since 2004 this year. It was a real shame to see Mauresmo retire against Bartoli trailing 4-0 in the first set. That does not bode well for the Frenchwoman's chances at a career Renaissance this year. Azarenka-Bartoli should be an intriguing final.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
A bevy of upsets
The 2009 tennis season is well underway, and the narratives are already getting interesting. The biggest story of the day is Rafael Nadal losing to Gael Monfils, who won in straights, despite having never won a set off the ATP number one in their previous three meetings. I wondered if that meant Nadal wasn't in the best physical shape still, especially after he went out for his doubles match and lost the first set 6-1. But then he and his partner Marc Lopez (no relation to Feliciano, it seems) won the second set in a tie-break and then won the super tie-break 11-9. Tomorrow, Monfils plays Roddick, and Monfils has to be the favorite, coming off such a convincing victory.
The other Doha semifinal is the one I've been waiting for all week: Murray-Federer round seven! I wish it were being broadcast, because it promises to be a stellar match. Since Murray won their last two meetings, he probably has the edge, but since their last few matches have been incredibly tight affairs, it's not much of an edge. Federer wants this win really bad, I'm sure. It's more important to him than it is to Murray, just like the other semifinal is probably more important to Roddick than Monfils. Unfortunately, I'm picking both of them to lose.
In Chennai, there was a lot of catch-up play today. The most exciting story is that Karlovic (beating the other Ivo with no trouble) dodged a bullet when his likely next round opponent, Carlos Moya, lost to a wildcard Somdev Devvarman, currently ranked 202. I attribute this more to Moya's body not being able to hold up to his style of play, but it's always fun to see a local kid making the run of his life. Unfortunately, he's about to run into a brick wall - a wall that will pummel him with 138-mph serves over and over again.
Other than that, things are going about as one would expect in Chennai. Tomorrow, Tipsarevic is going to play Marin Cilic, which is definitely the most exciting match-up they have to offer. I predict that either the winner of that match or Ivo Karlovic is going to win the whole tournament.
In Brisbane, the two quarterfinals we had today went much as expected. Mathieu had too much experience for Nishikori, and Verdasco recovered from losing the first set to blow Serra off the court. By the way, have you seen his forehand? When it's firing on all cylinders, it's one of the best on tour. For tomorrow, we've got that enticing Tsonga-Gasquet match to look forward to, as well as a less-thrilling quarterfinal between Robin Soderling and Radek "the worm" Stepanek. I'll take Soderling in that match-up, but you never know with Stepanek. He's quite an enigma.
Also in Brisbane, Amelie Mauresmo really showed me by beating Ana Ivanovic in two pretty easy sets. It may be more that Amelie recovered from her tough three-setter the day before more quickly than her younger, Serbian opponent, but sometimes that's all it takes. Ana may need to work on her fitness. Mauresmo may be able to make something out of this year - that was her first win over a top 10 player since 2006, and that's a fine way to start out 2009. She plays Marion Bartoli next, who had no trouble with Tathiana Garbin, so we'll see how Mauresmo deals with a well-rested opponent.
The biggest match tomorrow - the biggest match of the whole week - is Murray v. Federer. I expect we'll see them play again this year, at more significant tournaments. Murray wants Federer to know that the next time they meet in a slam final, Federer can expect more resistance. And Federer wants everyone to know that he doesn't have mono this year. It should be great.
The other Doha semifinal is the one I've been waiting for all week: Murray-Federer round seven! I wish it were being broadcast, because it promises to be a stellar match. Since Murray won their last two meetings, he probably has the edge, but since their last few matches have been incredibly tight affairs, it's not much of an edge. Federer wants this win really bad, I'm sure. It's more important to him than it is to Murray, just like the other semifinal is probably more important to Roddick than Monfils. Unfortunately, I'm picking both of them to lose.
In Chennai, there was a lot of catch-up play today. The most exciting story is that Karlovic (beating the other Ivo with no trouble) dodged a bullet when his likely next round opponent, Carlos Moya, lost to a wildcard Somdev Devvarman, currently ranked 202. I attribute this more to Moya's body not being able to hold up to his style of play, but it's always fun to see a local kid making the run of his life. Unfortunately, he's about to run into a brick wall - a wall that will pummel him with 138-mph serves over and over again.
Other than that, things are going about as one would expect in Chennai. Tomorrow, Tipsarevic is going to play Marin Cilic, which is definitely the most exciting match-up they have to offer. I predict that either the winner of that match or Ivo Karlovic is going to win the whole tournament.
In Brisbane, the two quarterfinals we had today went much as expected. Mathieu had too much experience for Nishikori, and Verdasco recovered from losing the first set to blow Serra off the court. By the way, have you seen his forehand? When it's firing on all cylinders, it's one of the best on tour. For tomorrow, we've got that enticing Tsonga-Gasquet match to look forward to, as well as a less-thrilling quarterfinal between Robin Soderling and Radek "the worm" Stepanek. I'll take Soderling in that match-up, but you never know with Stepanek. He's quite an enigma.
Also in Brisbane, Amelie Mauresmo really showed me by beating Ana Ivanovic in two pretty easy sets. It may be more that Amelie recovered from her tough three-setter the day before more quickly than her younger, Serbian opponent, but sometimes that's all it takes. Ana may need to work on her fitness. Mauresmo may be able to make something out of this year - that was her first win over a top 10 player since 2006, and that's a fine way to start out 2009. She plays Marion Bartoli next, who had no trouble with Tathiana Garbin, so we'll see how Mauresmo deals with a well-rested opponent.
The biggest match tomorrow - the biggest match of the whole week - is Murray v. Federer. I expect we'll see them play again this year, at more significant tournaments. Murray wants Federer to know that the next time they meet in a slam final, Federer can expect more resistance. And Federer wants everyone to know that he doesn't have mono this year. It should be great.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
The AO's first casualty
Even though rain in Chennai prevented any matches from being played to completion, the top seed still managed to find his way out of the tournament: Davydenko pulled out with an injury to his heel, which also takes him out of the Australian Open. It's inevitable that somebody is going to be unable to play at each of these big tournaments, but Davydenko is such a decent, steady, fit guy that I'm surprised it's him. Here's hoping for a swift recovery.
While it rained in India, there was some very interesting play in Australia and Qatar. In Brisbane, Gulbis couldn't follow up on his victory over Djokovic, and lost to Paul-Henri Mathieu. Does that mean that Djoko's loss had more to do with Novak being rusty or with Gulbis not being mature enough to perform up to the same level after securing the biggest win of his career? Probably a bit of both.
Kei Nishikori continues to impress, beating fifth seed Tomas Berdych. Ancic fell to Verdasco, who was always the favorite, but I bet Ancic's marathon of a match yesterday didn't help his chances. Speaking of marathons, Tsonga had to win the second and third sets in tiebreaks after getting bageled in the first by Nieminen to avenge a loss that the Finn dealt the Frenchman almost exactly a year ago.
Tsonga will be rewarded with a day's rest and then a match against his countryman Richard Gasquet, who will have had two days off after a much-easier match against Taylor Dent. The pair are 2-2, and while Tsonga has been playing better tennis of late, I bet that Gasquet would like to remind French fans that he's still around. That one could be good.
But as for tomorrow in Brisbane, the headline match has to be Ana Ivanovic against Amelie Mauresmo, who both had tough three-set victories today. Mauresmo will have to return to her 2006 form to win this one. The Frenchwoman has been on the verge of retiring for quite a while, but it would be great to see her have a late-career resurgence.
The other highlight is to see if Kei Nishikori can continue to roll, as he comes up against the guy who beat the guy who beat Djokovic, P.H. Mathieu. I'd love to see the Japanese teen continue to win, but I figure that at some point, he's going to run into somebody with enough experience to stop him, and Mathieu may be just the veteran to do that. Also, keep an eye on doubles team Chris Guccione and Carsten Ball, who are (I believe) the only local players left in this Aussie tournament. Don't expect them to last long against top-seeded Mirnyi and Ram.
In Doha, things continue much as one might expect, but interesting clashes are coming up fast. Today, all the seeds won and Youzhny had his expected slump after beating Andreev yesterday, falling to Victor Hanescu. None of the matches in Qatar were terribly thrilling, although Kohlschreiber had to lose a second set tie-break before beating Kristof Vliegen in three. Here's hoping he keeps it close enough with Roger Federer to lose a tie-break.
Tomorrow, Roddick and Murray should both come through easily against Hanescu and Stakhovsky, respectively. Roddick in particular needs to get as much momentum as he can before the season's first major in two weeks. The real exciting match tomorrow is Nadal against Gael Monfils. The Frenchman has never beat the Spaniard, but Monfils is getting better and better, so this is probably the best shot he's had yet. Really, that ought to be headlining match tomorrow, but they had to put it at mid-day, so Rafa could have a little time to recover before he went back to play doubles against Santoro (who he's already beaten once) and Youzhny. Unless Monfils really tires him out, he should win that one, too.
In addition to Nadal, Tsonga is also still in both the singles and doubles draws, as are Verdasco, Tipsarevic, and Schuettler, thought some of them haven't even played a doubles match, yet. I'm pressed with these guys that can play singles and doubles and do well at both. The game is much more physical than it was in the 80's, when guys like McEnroe would win both the singles and doubles grand slam titles at the same tournament, multiple times.
We also have Ivo against Ivo to look forward to, but unfortunately, Aleksandra Wozniack lost before she could play Caroline Wozniacki. To have Ivo-Ivo and Wozniack-Wozniacki on the same day would have been just too good.
While it rained in India, there was some very interesting play in Australia and Qatar. In Brisbane, Gulbis couldn't follow up on his victory over Djokovic, and lost to Paul-Henri Mathieu. Does that mean that Djoko's loss had more to do with Novak being rusty or with Gulbis not being mature enough to perform up to the same level after securing the biggest win of his career? Probably a bit of both.
Kei Nishikori continues to impress, beating fifth seed Tomas Berdych. Ancic fell to Verdasco, who was always the favorite, but I bet Ancic's marathon of a match yesterday didn't help his chances. Speaking of marathons, Tsonga had to win the second and third sets in tiebreaks after getting bageled in the first by Nieminen to avenge a loss that the Finn dealt the Frenchman almost exactly a year ago.
Tsonga will be rewarded with a day's rest and then a match against his countryman Richard Gasquet, who will have had two days off after a much-easier match against Taylor Dent. The pair are 2-2, and while Tsonga has been playing better tennis of late, I bet that Gasquet would like to remind French fans that he's still around. That one could be good.
But as for tomorrow in Brisbane, the headline match has to be Ana Ivanovic against Amelie Mauresmo, who both had tough three-set victories today. Mauresmo will have to return to her 2006 form to win this one. The Frenchwoman has been on the verge of retiring for quite a while, but it would be great to see her have a late-career resurgence.
The other highlight is to see if Kei Nishikori can continue to roll, as he comes up against the guy who beat the guy who beat Djokovic, P.H. Mathieu. I'd love to see the Japanese teen continue to win, but I figure that at some point, he's going to run into somebody with enough experience to stop him, and Mathieu may be just the veteran to do that. Also, keep an eye on doubles team Chris Guccione and Carsten Ball, who are (I believe) the only local players left in this Aussie tournament. Don't expect them to last long against top-seeded Mirnyi and Ram.
In Doha, things continue much as one might expect, but interesting clashes are coming up fast. Today, all the seeds won and Youzhny had his expected slump after beating Andreev yesterday, falling to Victor Hanescu. None of the matches in Qatar were terribly thrilling, although Kohlschreiber had to lose a second set tie-break before beating Kristof Vliegen in three. Here's hoping he keeps it close enough with Roger Federer to lose a tie-break.
Tomorrow, Roddick and Murray should both come through easily against Hanescu and Stakhovsky, respectively. Roddick in particular needs to get as much momentum as he can before the season's first major in two weeks. The real exciting match tomorrow is Nadal against Gael Monfils. The Frenchman has never beat the Spaniard, but Monfils is getting better and better, so this is probably the best shot he's had yet. Really, that ought to be headlining match tomorrow, but they had to put it at mid-day, so Rafa could have a little time to recover before he went back to play doubles against Santoro (who he's already beaten once) and Youzhny. Unless Monfils really tires him out, he should win that one, too.
In addition to Nadal, Tsonga is also still in both the singles and doubles draws, as are Verdasco, Tipsarevic, and Schuettler, thought some of them haven't even played a doubles match, yet. I'm pressed with these guys that can play singles and doubles and do well at both. The game is much more physical than it was in the 80's, when guys like McEnroe would win both the singles and doubles grand slam titles at the same tournament, multiple times.
We also have Ivo against Ivo to look forward to, but unfortunately, Aleksandra Wozniack lost before she could play Caroline Wozniacki. To have Ivo-Ivo and Wozniack-Wozniacki on the same day would have been just too good.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
First big upset of the year!
Ah, it's only day two of 2009, and we've already hit a great match result. Remember when I said that there was an outside chance of Gulbis beating Djokovic in his season opener? Well, it looks like Djoko had some rust to shake off, and he didn't last long enough for the hard-hitting Latvian to start missing the lines. The match ended 6-4, 6-4 in an hour and a half. Expect more from me on Djokovic during the coming week. There's no question that it was a tough first round match, but it was one that Djoko should have won. Since he was the season-ending champion, it's a shame to start the season with a loss.
There were some other excellent results, but nothing quite as surprising. The other big upset was in Chennai, where Stan Wawrinka lost in straights 138th-ranked qualifier Flavio Cipolla. I don't know whether Stanislas is on a bad streak, or if his run into the top ten last year was the aberration. In Doha, Mikhail Youzhny also upset sixth-seeded Igor Andreev in three and qualifier Alexander Peya upset seventh-seeded Dmitri Tursunov.
But some of the sure bets turned out to be very, very sure. Even Rafael Nadal was surprised at how quickly he dispatched Fabrice "The Magician" Santoro (6-0, 6-1 48 minutes), and Federer beat Potito Starace almost as easily (6-2, 6-2 also in 48 minutes). Tsonga, Gasquet, Soderling, Murray, Kohlschreiber, Davydenko, Moya, and Tipsarevic were all seeds that made it through in straights.
From where I'm sitting, the best match of the day was "Super" Mario Ancic against American qualifier Amer Delic. 7-6 (2), 6-7 (4), 7-6 (6) in 2 hours, 51 minutes. No break points, each player had only three double-faults and more than twenty aces. Final point total - Mario Ancic up 128-123. Wish I could have seen it.
As for tomorrow, things are really starting to get interesting. Nishikori-Berdych, Stepanek-Llodra, Verdasco-Ancic, Nieminen-Tsonga, Gulbis-Mathieu, and Serra-Melzer. And that's just in Brisbane! It definitely had the deepest talent pool of any of this week's tournaments. Really, any of these players could come away with the title, but Tsonga is far and away the favorite. With Djokovic out, the top half is pretty open. I'd love to see Nishikori or Gulbis go all the way, but a more experienced player like Verdasco or Berdych (the only seeds left in that helf) are probably a safer bet.
In Chennai, the best match is Sela-Tipsarevic. I like Tipsy, but I wish he could always play at the level that had him draw Federer to five sets at the AO last year. For the other players in serious contention in India that are in action today (Cilic and Davydenko) it's just a matter of not slipping up. Tomorrow, we'll see Moya back in action, as well as the battle of the Ivos (Karlovic and Minar) that I predicted.
In Doha, it's still one more round before we get to any of the fun matches. Hopefully, none of the seeds are going to trip up - if all goes according to plan, then there are going to be fireworks when the quarters roll around. The closest thing to a close match is Roddick against Arnaud Clement. They've got a 2-2 record, but Clement hasn't won since 2002, and both of those wins were on clay. Youzhny and Hanescu are at 1-1, so that may be interesting. Youzhny also has a tendency to let up after a big win. Beyond that, I don't see much else to keep an eye on.
There were some other excellent results, but nothing quite as surprising. The other big upset was in Chennai, where Stan Wawrinka lost in straights 138th-ranked qualifier Flavio Cipolla. I don't know whether Stanislas is on a bad streak, or if his run into the top ten last year was the aberration. In Doha, Mikhail Youzhny also upset sixth-seeded Igor Andreev in three and qualifier Alexander Peya upset seventh-seeded Dmitri Tursunov.
But some of the sure bets turned out to be very, very sure. Even Rafael Nadal was surprised at how quickly he dispatched Fabrice "The Magician" Santoro (6-0, 6-1 48 minutes), and Federer beat Potito Starace almost as easily (6-2, 6-2 also in 48 minutes). Tsonga, Gasquet, Soderling, Murray, Kohlschreiber, Davydenko, Moya, and Tipsarevic were all seeds that made it through in straights.
From where I'm sitting, the best match of the day was "Super" Mario Ancic against American qualifier Amer Delic. 7-6 (2), 6-7 (4), 7-6 (6) in 2 hours, 51 minutes. No break points, each player had only three double-faults and more than twenty aces. Final point total - Mario Ancic up 128-123. Wish I could have seen it.
As for tomorrow, things are really starting to get interesting. Nishikori-Berdych, Stepanek-Llodra, Verdasco-Ancic, Nieminen-Tsonga, Gulbis-Mathieu, and Serra-Melzer. And that's just in Brisbane! It definitely had the deepest talent pool of any of this week's tournaments. Really, any of these players could come away with the title, but Tsonga is far and away the favorite. With Djokovic out, the top half is pretty open. I'd love to see Nishikori or Gulbis go all the way, but a more experienced player like Verdasco or Berdych (the only seeds left in that helf) are probably a safer bet.
In Chennai, the best match is Sela-Tipsarevic. I like Tipsy, but I wish he could always play at the level that had him draw Federer to five sets at the AO last year. For the other players in serious contention in India that are in action today (Cilic and Davydenko) it's just a matter of not slipping up. Tomorrow, we'll see Moya back in action, as well as the battle of the Ivos (Karlovic and Minar) that I predicted.
In Doha, it's still one more round before we get to any of the fun matches. Hopefully, none of the seeds are going to trip up - if all goes according to plan, then there are going to be fireworks when the quarters roll around. The closest thing to a close match is Roddick against Arnaud Clement. They've got a 2-2 record, but Clement hasn't won since 2002, and both of those wins were on clay. Youzhny and Hanescu are at 1-1, so that may be interesting. Youzhny also has a tendency to let up after a big win. Beyond that, I don't see much else to keep an eye on.
Monday, January 5, 2009
2009 officially underway
It was the first day of the 2009 tennis season, and while nothing too spectacular happened, I was still thrilled. Thank goodness tennis has one of the shortest off-seasons in all of professional sports, because I don't know how much longer I could have lasted. As for the action that took place today...
Andy Roddick, who I'm still hoping makes a good run at the grand slams and maybe captures a few masters series shields this year, had a good day against Ivan Navarro in their first meeting. It's always nice to have an easy first official match of the season to get things underway. Monfils also did well, routing Jan Hernych. Both Fernando Verdasco and Dudi Sela (who I saw play at last year's New Haven tournament) won today. New Haven champ Marin Cilic also had a good day, but New Haven runner-up Mardy Fish wasn't quite so lucky, losing to Jurgen Melzer.
Fish is one of a few American players in their late twenties that I think may be on their ways out this year. James Blake is another. He lost again today, making his record for the season 0-2. At least his official ATP season hasn't started yet! He lost to Dominik Hrbaty in the Hopman Cup. Of course, I hope they both do well, but I wouldn't be shocked if they both started a slide.
The other big match of the day was Baghdatis/Nieminen, as I mentioned yesterday. Unfortunately, Baggy went down in three sets. He served under fifty percent and had eleven double faults. His ranking is hovering around 100 and he does not seem together, physically or mentally. It's a shame, because he's such a dynamic and fun player to watch, when he's on his game. He's only 23 - I hope he can pull himself together this year. He might just need a favorable draw to get some matches under his belt. Of course, that's tough when your ranking is slipping...
There's quite a few very exciting matches tomorrow, too. Nadal versus Fabrice Santoro! The magician just will not retire! Nadal should come through in straights, but I bet it will be entertaining. Also, Bobby Reynolds vs. Kei Nishikori (He's currently ranked 61, but I bet he finishes the year in the top 20) and the marquee match: Novak Djokovic against Ernests Gulbis. I don't think Gulbis has much of a shot tomorrow, but depending on how tight Djokovic is coming out of the off-season, an upset is an outside possibility. Regardless, expect Gulbis to make some waves over the course of the season.
And Federer looks to start off his year by beating Potito Starace for the fourth straight time. I'm sort of surprised to see that he's between a 12:1 or 23:1 favorite at the tennis odds websites I like to check. It could be 500:1 and it would still be a foolish bet. Federer wants to start 2009 better than he started 2008, and I'll bet he wants to do it emphatically.
Andy Roddick, who I'm still hoping makes a good run at the grand slams and maybe captures a few masters series shields this year, had a good day against Ivan Navarro in their first meeting. It's always nice to have an easy first official match of the season to get things underway. Monfils also did well, routing Jan Hernych. Both Fernando Verdasco and Dudi Sela (who I saw play at last year's New Haven tournament) won today. New Haven champ Marin Cilic also had a good day, but New Haven runner-up Mardy Fish wasn't quite so lucky, losing to Jurgen Melzer.
Fish is one of a few American players in their late twenties that I think may be on their ways out this year. James Blake is another. He lost again today, making his record for the season 0-2. At least his official ATP season hasn't started yet! He lost to Dominik Hrbaty in the Hopman Cup. Of course, I hope they both do well, but I wouldn't be shocked if they both started a slide.
The other big match of the day was Baghdatis/Nieminen, as I mentioned yesterday. Unfortunately, Baggy went down in three sets. He served under fifty percent and had eleven double faults. His ranking is hovering around 100 and he does not seem together, physically or mentally. It's a shame, because he's such a dynamic and fun player to watch, when he's on his game. He's only 23 - I hope he can pull himself together this year. He might just need a favorable draw to get some matches under his belt. Of course, that's tough when your ranking is slipping...
There's quite a few very exciting matches tomorrow, too. Nadal versus Fabrice Santoro! The magician just will not retire! Nadal should come through in straights, but I bet it will be entertaining. Also, Bobby Reynolds vs. Kei Nishikori (He's currently ranked 61, but I bet he finishes the year in the top 20) and the marquee match: Novak Djokovic against Ernests Gulbis. I don't think Gulbis has much of a shot tomorrow, but depending on how tight Djokovic is coming out of the off-season, an upset is an outside possibility. Regardless, expect Gulbis to make some waves over the course of the season.
And Federer looks to start off his year by beating Potito Starace for the fourth straight time. I'm sort of surprised to see that he's between a 12:1 or 23:1 favorite at the tennis odds websites I like to check. It could be 500:1 and it would still be a foolish bet. Federer wants to start 2009 better than he started 2008, and I'll bet he wants to do it emphatically.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
First week of 2009 preview
Looking ahead to the first week of the tennis season proper, there are some very intriguing matches. It's time for some players to make a statement that they're here to stay or that they're still around. There isn't much time to build some momentum going into the first grand slam of the season, so players have to take every opportunity that they can.
The most interesting path that any particular player has in front of him is Novak Djokovic, the top seed in Brisbane. His first three matches could be against Ernests Gulbis, Paul-Henri Mathieu, and then Kei Nishikori or Tomas Berdych. If he gets through that unscathed, he could face Verdasco, Ancic, Ferrero, or Mardy Fish in the semifinals. Since his season went longer than anyone else's, we'll see how he recovered in the short off-season.
The bottom half of the Brisbane draw isn't quite as stacked, but it's still very exciting. The best first-round match, I think, is Marcos Baghdatis versus the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen. Baggy did not live up to his talent last year, so maybe he can turn things around in 2009. A solid start against a solid player like Jarkko is one way to get that off on the right foot. You've also got Stepanek, Soderling, and Gasquet, who are all contenders. But the real force in this half is JW Tsonga, the number two seed. I'm sure everyone would love to see another Tsonga-Djokovic match-up in the final. After Djoko won their first meeting in the AO final last year, Tsonga has won their next three meetings. There may be a rivalry developing here.
The Chennai event might seem less exciting, as it has a higher proportion of rising stars who haven't made their mark yet or tour veterans whose best days may be behind them. Top seed Davydenko really should come through this with no trouble, but there are some players who might upset Kolya. He should at least get to the quarters (H.T. Lee can come up with some good matches, but the Korean just turned 33) but at that point, he may find Marin Cilic, Dudi Sela, or Janko Tipsarevic waiting for him.
I like Ivo Karlovic in the bottom half, (there could be a second round Ivo v. Ivo match between Karlovic and Minar) but Carlos Moya is 4-0 against the ace machine. It will also be interesting to see if Stanislas Wawrinka and Rainier Schuettler can get their games back. Both had spectacular runs in the middle of 2008 (Schuettler's took him to the semifinals at Wimbledon) but had trouble the rest of the year. The Swiss #2 ended the year by losing his last four matches, and Schuettler went on an eight match losing streak between January and May. Any of those seeds could come out of the bottom half.
The real drama should take place in Doha this week. There aren't that many intriguing first round matches, but Nadal-Santoro should be fun. I'm glad to see the magician has decided not to retire, yet. Youzhny-Andreev could also be a close one. I'd like to see Youzhny have a more solid 2009 than he did in 2008, even though he was an infamous YouTube star.
If everything goes with the seeds, and it probably should - the only other possible spoiler I see is young Viktor Troicki - then we'll have a Nadal-Monfils, Roddick-Andreev, Tursunov-Murray, and Kohlschreiber-Federer quarterfinal round. Then, potentially, a Roddick-Nadal and Murray-Federer (Round 7!) semis. Whoever can make it through this field is going to have the biggest boost to start their season. I like Murray, honestly, since he beat the the top two players in the world last week at Abu Dhabi. Could this be the Scot's year?
The most interesting path that any particular player has in front of him is Novak Djokovic, the top seed in Brisbane. His first three matches could be against Ernests Gulbis, Paul-Henri Mathieu, and then Kei Nishikori or Tomas Berdych. If he gets through that unscathed, he could face Verdasco, Ancic, Ferrero, or Mardy Fish in the semifinals. Since his season went longer than anyone else's, we'll see how he recovered in the short off-season.
The bottom half of the Brisbane draw isn't quite as stacked, but it's still very exciting. The best first-round match, I think, is Marcos Baghdatis versus the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen. Baggy did not live up to his talent last year, so maybe he can turn things around in 2009. A solid start against a solid player like Jarkko is one way to get that off on the right foot. You've also got Stepanek, Soderling, and Gasquet, who are all contenders. But the real force in this half is JW Tsonga, the number two seed. I'm sure everyone would love to see another Tsonga-Djokovic match-up in the final. After Djoko won their first meeting in the AO final last year, Tsonga has won their next three meetings. There may be a rivalry developing here.
The Chennai event might seem less exciting, as it has a higher proportion of rising stars who haven't made their mark yet or tour veterans whose best days may be behind them. Top seed Davydenko really should come through this with no trouble, but there are some players who might upset Kolya. He should at least get to the quarters (H.T. Lee can come up with some good matches, but the Korean just turned 33) but at that point, he may find Marin Cilic, Dudi Sela, or Janko Tipsarevic waiting for him.
I like Ivo Karlovic in the bottom half, (there could be a second round Ivo v. Ivo match between Karlovic and Minar) but Carlos Moya is 4-0 against the ace machine. It will also be interesting to see if Stanislas Wawrinka and Rainier Schuettler can get their games back. Both had spectacular runs in the middle of 2008 (Schuettler's took him to the semifinals at Wimbledon) but had trouble the rest of the year. The Swiss #2 ended the year by losing his last four matches, and Schuettler went on an eight match losing streak between January and May. Any of those seeds could come out of the bottom half.
The real drama should take place in Doha this week. There aren't that many intriguing first round matches, but Nadal-Santoro should be fun. I'm glad to see the magician has decided not to retire, yet. Youzhny-Andreev could also be a close one. I'd like to see Youzhny have a more solid 2009 than he did in 2008, even though he was an infamous YouTube star.
If everything goes with the seeds, and it probably should - the only other possible spoiler I see is young Viktor Troicki - then we'll have a Nadal-Monfils, Roddick-Andreev, Tursunov-Murray, and Kohlschreiber-Federer quarterfinal round. Then, potentially, a Roddick-Nadal and Murray-Federer (Round 7!) semis. Whoever can make it through this field is going to have the biggest boost to start their season. I like Murray, honestly, since he beat the the top two players in the world last week at Abu Dhabi. Could this be the Scot's year?
2009 season almost underway!
If this is a preview of the 2009 season, we should be in for some fun. After beating Federer in three sets in Abu Dhabi yesterday, Andy Murray went on to beat Nadal in three in the final. I think the young Scot is trying to make a statement, that he's a serious contender this year. Should be fun.
I've started taking a look at the draws for the three tournaments taking place this inaugural week of the season, but I'll hold off on much serious commentary until tomorrow, when the qualifying rounds will have hopefully completed. As for the quallies...
In Chennai, the weakest of the three tournaments taking place next week, I'd like to see Michael Berrer and Rajeev Ram make it to the main draw. Flavia Cipolla probably will, too. And there are a lot of unknown (at least to me) Indian tennis players in this draw. I know that it's a burgeoning sport in that region, so it would be nice to see somebody new make a splash, and there's no better place to do it than a hometown tournament.
It's interesting that Doha has such a great main draw, but there isn't much going on in qualifiers. I expect it's because the top players are getting appearance bonuses for showing up, but the players outside the top 100 probably aren't. One interesting note is that doubles phenom Nenad Zimonjic is playing in the qualifiers. It'll be interesting to see how he does.
Most of the interesting play is going on in Brisbane, since players are there to start prepping for the Australian Open. Gilles Muller and Frank Dancevic are both high-quality players that could use a good start to their year. I see that John Isner lost Andrea Stoppini already, but I'm encouraged to see him out there getting in the matches. Ivo Karlovic couldn't get a handle on his playing style until he was much older than Isner, so maybe it will just take time. There are quite a few other Americans in the draw, and I see that Amer Delic has already ousted local favorite Chris Guccione. Not a good day for big servers.
In addition to the guys I've already mentioned, I think that young Kevin Anderson and veteran Xavier Malisse have good odds to make it into the main draw. And then we can get the season started in earnest. I can hardly wait.
I've started taking a look at the draws for the three tournaments taking place this inaugural week of the season, but I'll hold off on much serious commentary until tomorrow, when the qualifying rounds will have hopefully completed. As for the quallies...
In Chennai, the weakest of the three tournaments taking place next week, I'd like to see Michael Berrer and Rajeev Ram make it to the main draw. Flavia Cipolla probably will, too. And there are a lot of unknown (at least to me) Indian tennis players in this draw. I know that it's a burgeoning sport in that region, so it would be nice to see somebody new make a splash, and there's no better place to do it than a hometown tournament.
It's interesting that Doha has such a great main draw, but there isn't much going on in qualifiers. I expect it's because the top players are getting appearance bonuses for showing up, but the players outside the top 100 probably aren't. One interesting note is that doubles phenom Nenad Zimonjic is playing in the qualifiers. It'll be interesting to see how he does.
Most of the interesting play is going on in Brisbane, since players are there to start prepping for the Australian Open. Gilles Muller and Frank Dancevic are both high-quality players that could use a good start to their year. I see that John Isner lost Andrea Stoppini already, but I'm encouraged to see him out there getting in the matches. Ivo Karlovic couldn't get a handle on his playing style until he was much older than Isner, so maybe it will just take time. There are quite a few other Americans in the draw, and I see that Amer Delic has already ousted local favorite Chris Guccione. Not a good day for big servers.
In addition to the guys I've already mentioned, I think that young Kevin Anderson and veteran Xavier Malisse have good odds to make it into the main draw. And then we can get the season started in earnest. I can hardly wait.
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