Tuesday, January 6, 2009

First big upset of the year!

Ah, it's only day two of 2009, and we've already hit a great match result. Remember when I said that there was an outside chance of Gulbis beating Djokovic in his season opener? Well, it looks like Djoko had some rust to shake off, and he didn't last long enough for the hard-hitting Latvian to start missing the lines. The match ended 6-4, 6-4 in an hour and a half. Expect more from me on Djokovic during the coming week. There's no question that it was a tough first round match, but it was one that Djoko should have won. Since he was the season-ending champion, it's a shame to start the season with a loss.

There were some other excellent results, but nothing quite as surprising. The other big upset was in Chennai, where Stan Wawrinka lost in straights 138th-ranked qualifier Flavio Cipolla. I don't know whether Stanislas is on a bad streak, or if his run into the top ten last year was the aberration. In Doha, Mikhail Youzhny also upset sixth-seeded Igor Andreev in three and qualifier Alexander Peya upset seventh-seeded Dmitri Tursunov.

But some of the sure bets turned out to be very, very sure. Even Rafael Nadal was surprised at how quickly he dispatched Fabrice "The Magician" Santoro (6-0, 6-1 48 minutes), and Federer beat Potito Starace almost as easily (6-2, 6-2 also in 48 minutes). Tsonga, Gasquet, Soderling, Murray, Kohlschreiber, Davydenko, Moya, and Tipsarevic were all seeds that made it through in straights.

From where I'm sitting, the best match of the day was "Super" Mario Ancic against American qualifier Amer Delic. 7-6 (2), 6-7 (4), 7-6 (6) in 2 hours, 51 minutes. No break points, each player had only three double-faults and more than twenty aces. Final point total - Mario Ancic up 128-123. Wish I could have seen it.

As for tomorrow, things are really starting to get interesting. Nishikori-Berdych, Stepanek-Llodra, Verdasco-Ancic, Nieminen-Tsonga, Gulbis-Mathieu, and Serra-Melzer. And that's just in Brisbane! It definitely had the deepest talent pool of any of this week's tournaments. Really, any of these players could come away with the title, but Tsonga is far and away the favorite. With Djokovic out, the top half is pretty open. I'd love to see Nishikori or Gulbis go all the way, but a more experienced player like Verdasco or Berdych (the only seeds left in that helf) are probably a safer bet.

In Chennai, the best match is Sela-Tipsarevic. I like Tipsy, but I wish he could always play at the level that had him draw Federer to five sets at the AO last year. For the other players in serious contention in India that are in action today (Cilic and Davydenko) it's just a matter of not slipping up. Tomorrow, we'll see Moya back in action, as well as the battle of the Ivos (Karlovic and Minar) that I predicted.

In Doha, it's still one more round before we get to any of the fun matches. Hopefully, none of the seeds are going to trip up - if all goes according to plan, then there are going to be fireworks when the quarters roll around. The closest thing to a close match is Roddick against Arnaud Clement. They've got a 2-2 record, but Clement hasn't won since 2002, and both of those wins were on clay. Youzhny and Hanescu are at 1-1, so that may be interesting. Youzhny also has a tendency to let up after a big win. Beyond that, I don't see much else to keep an eye on.