Week 20 Wrap-up and French Open Preview

The wrap-up will be quick, because I have a lot to say about the French Open. First of all, congratulations to Argentina for beating America in the Dusseldorf team tournament. I'm still not sure about the format - why was Robbie Ginepri playing to keep the U.S. alive, rather than John Isner? Oh well. It should be good practice for the Americans, heading into the French Open, and a nice confidence boost for the Argentines.

In Nice, Richard Gasquet won the inaugural tournament, in an exciting final match against Fernando Verdasco. The Spaniard served for the championship, but was broken, and then Gasquet took the tournament in a tiebreak. Well done - it's been a long road for Gasquet, who had not won a tournament since 2007. Will he be able to build on this win? We'll have to wait and see. Anyway, on to the French Open. There's no doubt that it's an exciting draw. As per usual, I'll go quarter by quarter.

First of all, Roger Federer's quarter. If Rog makes it out of this quarter, he breaks the record for most weeks at number one. Will he be able to do it? Well, he could have definitely asked for a smoother route to that record, but it's hard for me to see him losing before the semis. He opens against Australian vet Peter Luczak, who shouldn't give him any trouble. After that, he might face Janko Tipsarevic, who pushed Federer hard a couple years ago at the Aussie Open, but he probably won't be able to upset Federer on clay. After that, it's probably either Olivier Rochus or Feliciano Lopez. Both solid players, but Federer is 7-0 against each of them. Things get a little more interesting in the next couple of rounds. It's likely that Fed's fourth round opponent will be either Stan Wawrinka or Gael Monfils. Two solid clay-courters, but neither has been playing at their top level this year, especially in big matches. I don't think there are a lot of floaters in that 1/8th of the draw. The bottom half of Fed's quarter is a different story.

Soderling is the top seed here, and he's going to have a hell of a time equalling his run to the finals from last year. As if beating Nadal on the terre battue wasn't hard enough. The Swede should be able to make it through a couple rounds, but he could find himself facing Albert Montanes in the third, followed by either Marin Cilic, Leonardo Mayer, or Ernests Gulbis in the fourth. I would not be shocked if any of those five players made it to the quarters to face Federer. But who could beat him there? Whichever player made it that far would have to play the best match of his life. I see Fed making it into the semis. Gulbis is the closest thing this quarter has to a dark horse - and he has the best opening round match, too, against Frenchman Julien Benneteau.

The second quarter is probably the most wide open, overall. It should be Andy Murray's quarter, but after going 6-1 in his first tournament of the year, he's gone 7-6 since then. That's not going to give him a lot of confidence, and he starts off against an inspired Richard Gasquet. Murray is in danger of losing that match, honestly. He lost to JW Tsonga in the first round at the Aussie Open when Tsonga made his run to the final. It's possible for something similar to happen here. And whoever wins that match has a good chance of going deep, because that 1/8th of the draw is stacked with people who are not that comfortable on red clay.

The first seed that Murray/Gasquet could meet is Marcos Baghdatis, and then it's either Tomas Berdych or John Isner. All great hardcourt players, but their big-hitting strategies are tougher to employ effectively on the slow clay. The possible dark horses here are Marco Chiudinelli, who hasn't been able to play as well this year as he did at the end of 2009, and possibly Juan Ignacio Chela. He could sneak through if the winner of the Murray/Gasquet match is worn out.

The bottom 1/8th of this draw is much tougher, with more capable dirtballers in action. Tommy Robredo opens against Viktor Troick in one of the best opening round match-ups. Mikhail Youzhny is also here, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and JW Tsonga. The Frenchman could face a player who made some noise here last year, Josselin Ouanna, in the second round. Unfortunately for him, Ouanna plays just like Tsonga, except not as well. Also, keep an eye out for Thiemo De Bakker in this section of the draw. Like I said, this is a very open quarter, but I think it'll be the winner of Murray/Gasquet against Tsonga for a place in the semis. And Murray/Gasquet will probably take it.

The third quarter is also pretty open. The top two seeds - Novak Djokovic and Andy Roddick - are big question marks, because of their recent health. Roddick hasn't played a match on clay yet this year, and he does not have an easy road ahead of him. He opens against Jarkko Nieminen, and then could get two Argentines in the second and third rounds: Eduardo Schwank and Juan Monaco. And if he manages to get through all that, the American will almost certainly get David Ferrer in the fourth round. It's tough to see Roddick making it through that gauntlet of clay-court specialists. Unless Xavier Malisse, Dudi Sela, or Jurgen Melzer pulls off a shocking upset, I see Ferrer through to the quarters.

Djokovic's progress depends much more on his fitness. After starting the year off strong, he's gone 8-5 since his Davis Cup win over the U.S. Before that, he was 13-2 to start the year. And that includes retiring during his own tournament and pulling out of the last clay Master's. He hasn't played since. He'll likely get Kei Nishikori in his second round match, and the Japanese player is pretty hot coming off injury. That could be a tough match. And then, probably Victor Hanescu, who is a solid clay-courter. And after that, Djokovic could get either former champion Juan Carlos Ferrero (most likely) or perhaps Sam Querrey. Those would be tough matches for an exhausted Djoker. I think that a Ferrer-Ferrero quarterfinal is not unlikely here, with Ferrer probably coming out on top.

The last quarter of the draw is all Nadal, all the time. The most unfortunate opening round is Nadal against French wildcard Gianni Mina. It's a lot like Federer against Devin Britton at last year's US Open. It'll be a massacre. After that, he'll probably get Horacio Zeballos, a talented player who will have a good career on play. But he's no match for Nadal. And then Hewitt, in all likelihood. Again, no trouble there. I expect that Nadal will get Tomaz Bellucci in the fourth round, but he could also get Ivan Ljubicic or Mardy Fish. It won't matter. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent might be a Fernando - Verdasco or Gonzalez - or Nicolas Almagro. But he'll be through to the semis, no matter what.

I see semis with Federer and a relative surprise, as well as Nadal and another surprise. I don't expect Murray or Djokovic to live up to their seeding. I also expect it to be another Nadal-Federer final, and for Nadal to win. Nadal will reclaim his title, but Federer will get the record for number one.

I've got a lot ot say about the men, but I don't really know what's going to happen on the women's side. It seems like nobody is playing well. Serena Williams and Justine Henin are in thesame quarter, along with Bartoli, Sharapova, and Sam Stosur. That's a tough quarter. The next one has Jelena Jankovic, Yanina Wickmayer, and Dinar Safina, not to mention Aggie Radwanska. In all honesty, I have no idea who's going to make it through. You have to pick Serena or Justine, but it's a tough call.

The other half of the draw is even more up in the air. Wozniacki has a foot injury. Kuznetsova has been on a brutal bad run of form. Maria Kirilenko and Nadia Petrova are here, as are Dementieva, Azarenka, and Venus. Not to mention unseeded Carla Suarez Navarro, but I have no idea who's going to make it to the final. I'll revise my look at the women's game once we're through a few rounds, but for now, it's just impossible to tell. I'm anxious to see what happens, though!

Week 20 Semifinals and French Open Qualifying

The week before a grand slam tournament is always a bit confused, as everyone's eyes are turned towards the big events starting next week. On the other hand, there's always a few tournaments taking place, not to mention the qualifying tournament for the grand slam. It's tough to say how motivated players are in the tournaments that take place the week before a major like this. Robin Soderling probably wanted to get a bit more experience on clay before he tried to equal his run to last year's final, and he certainly didn't expect to lose to Olivier Rochus in the second round. But he probably didn't want to play all the way through Saturday, either.

Rochus, by the way, would be a top five player if it weren't for his short stature. He can play some spectacular ball, as demonstrated in his wins this year over Soderling and Djokovic - but he's also lost to Richard Gasquet in the last three tournaments he's played. Gasquet is into the semis in Nice, and looks likely to face Fernando Verdasco. They're facing Starace and Leonardo Mayer, who have already notched big wins - Starace beat Kubot and Monfils, while Mayer beat Bellucci and Baghdatis. But they've got be worn out after those wins, and Gasquet and Verdasco have enough experience to come through, in my opinion.

In Dusseldorf, I am still a bit baffled by the format - some of the teams seem to have three players, others as many as five. It's not clear to me what to expect, but the results have been surprising. The American team, composed of Sam Querrey, John Isner, the Bryan Brothers, and Robby Ginepri, are just one win away from the finals. They beat Spain, the Czech Republic, and an Australian team that fielded Lleyton Hewitt. Impressive performances from the good ol' boys. They'll face either Argentina or France in the final, which should be an interesting match-up.

In any case, looking at the French Open, the qualifying tournament is into the final round, so everyone who's still standing needs only to win a single match to make it into the main draw. Here are some interesting things to look at it in the draw. There are a surprising number of Americans still alive - Ryler DeHeart, Jesse Witten, Michael Yani, Ryan Harrison, and Alex Bogomolov Jr. That's a pretty good ratio, so far. And I think that most of them have a good chance of getting through.

Other players who I think are likely to make it through are Somdev Devvarman, of India, and Jose Acasuso of Argentina. The most interesting match-up in the final round of qualifying is Simone Bolelli against Marsel Ilhan. Should be interesting to see how that shakes out. The only really notable loss was Gaston Gaudio, former champion, who lost pretty easily to Thiago Alves. It's a shame, since he just won a challenger event recently. There are a couple players I was surprised not to see in the draw - Donald Young and Grigor Dimitrov, to name two. But there's so much that could be going on with those guys, it's tough for me to say anything - I'm just sorry that I can't watch them in action.

There should be plenty of other action to enjoy, though. I am very excited.

Madrid Wrap-Up and Week 20 Preview

There was a lot riding on that Madrid final. Both Raja and Rafa were very close to breaking Andre Agassi's record for Master's Series shields. Federer would have tied it with a win in Madrid, but Nadal broke it. That puts Nadal two up on Fed in the second-highest tier of tournament. But even though that was an important match for that reason, the consequences of this win won't be settled until after the French Open.

With this win, Nadal moves up to number two in the world again. Even though he is currently 3,150 points behind Federer in the rankings, Nadal has a serious chance to reclaim that spot after the French. Here's how it could go: Federer is at 10,030 points, with 2,000 that will drop off during the French. That puts him at 8,030. Nadal is at 6,880 with only 180 that will drop (that's what you get for losing in the round of 16), putting him at 6,700.

With a win, Nadal could go up to 8,700 points. If he does that, and Federer loses in the quarterfinals or earlier, he would only get a maximum of 360 points. That would put Fed at 8,390 - and squarely in second place. The reason that *this* is significant is because Federer is just a few weeks away from beating Pete Sampras's record of most weeks at number one in the world. If he doesn't drop to number after the French, he beats that record. If he does, then he'll need to regain the ranking - again - in order to do it. It seems almost a sure thing that he will, but it just got a lot more interesting.

Unfortunately, the week before the French Open in the tennis world is not quite as thrilling. The tournament in Nice has two of the current top ten players, Verdasco and Soderling, as well as some other interesting guys. Bellucci, Baghdatis, Monfils, as well as Gasquet and Chiudinelli. But there are also a lot of relative no-names at the tournament, so it's worthwhile to wait and take a serious look once we're in the quarterfinals.

The other tournament going on this week is the ARAG World Team Cup in Dusseldorf, which is a strange format, featuring teams from different countries squaring off. Isner and Querrey are there, but the U.S. actually seems to be fielding the strongest pairing, which is a bit shocking. Hewitt is there for Australia, and Berdych for the Czechs. Monaco and Zeballos for Argentina and Almagro is there for Spain. But this format is more of a mystery to me than the mixed doubles team tournament in Australia earlier this year, because it seems like Carsten Ball is playing doubles for the Aussies? I'm not sure. I'll take another look at it later this week.

One other interesting result from the last few weeks is the resurgence of Japanese player Kei Nishikori. Nishikori, who missed almost all of last year with injury, had fallen off the rankings completely at the beginning of April. He has now won two challenger tournaments in a row, beating four players in the top 200, and getting his own ranking up to 244. Expect him to get some wildcards in the American summer hardcourt swing, and if he gets a favorable draw or two, then he could make some noise. I'm excited to have him back, and I bet his legions of Japanese fans are, too.

Madrid Final

Ah, here we are. Back to order as usual. At last, we have another Federer and Nadal match-up. Amazingly, in the past 365 days, we have not had another chapter in the epic Federer-Nadal rivalry. The last time we had a whole year between two meetings was between their very first and second matches. Their last meeting was on this court, at this stage, one year ago. At that time, Nadal was running ragged after playing too much during the clay court season, and he had just won the longest three-set match ever against Novak Djokovic the day before. He was wiped out, and he lost to Federer, then lost at Roland Garros, and then his year went on the skids.

Federer, on the other hand, hadn't won a title since October of the previous year, had just lost a devastating five-set final at the Australian Open to Nadal, and had broken down in tears. He had smashed a racket during a loss to Djokovic during the American hard court swing. This match-up last year changed the trajectories of the rest of 2009 for both players. Could we be looking at another watershed moment tomorrow?

Nadal's stock is rising again, but Federer's is back down. It was Federer's semifinal that was actually tougher, this year. It looked like he might lose it, at moments. Though Nadal started shakily against Almagro, he was thoroughly in command in the second two sets. Federer has had losses recently to absolutely shocking players, so will he really be able to beat Nadal, who has shown flashes of his classic clay-court brilliance of late, and even when he hasn't reached that level, has been playing better than anyone else right now?

It's hard for me to think that Federer is the favorite, tomorrow. He does need the win more, though. Nadal has dominated the clay court swing the way he always does, and he cut Barcelona from his schedule to spare his aching knees. Federer has looked listless and sometimes a bit petulant in his losses since the AO final. It's not a big surprise, considering that he knows he is capable of playing so much better. But we haven't seen vintage Federer for any consistent stretch since January. He will need to get some of that form back if he hopes to upset the king of clay tomorrow, the way he did a week ago. But if he manages to pull it off, then the French Open suddenly gets extremely interesting again. I'll be watching tomorrow's match-up with a great deal of anticipation.