Saturday, September 11, 2010

US Open Day 12

The women's semifinals took place today, and they were pretty surprising. Three of the four players were shaky and off their game today - and the one who wasn't was Vera Zvonareva. Top seed Caroline Wozniacki played her first shaky match of the tournament, and the Russian was there to capitalize. Credit to Vera, who played a very strong, solid match from a player who hasn't been known for her consistency in the past, but Wozniacki was strangely not present today. For somebody who has played so solid from day one against some very tough opponents in an array of conditions, I'm not sure what it was that got to her today. But Zvonareva has emerged as one of the best stories of the tournament, since she's made consecutive grand slam finals and has emerged as the Russian. No small feat for a player who was bawling on the court last year, tearing off her own leg strappings after missing six match points against Flavia Pennetta.

And she'll get Kim Clijsters in the final, but after their performances today, I'd like Zvonareva's chances against the two-time champion here. Because Kim and Venus were both shaky today - lots of double faults in key situations from both players. In the second-set tiebreak, Venus's play suddenly became riddled with unforced errors, and she basically gave the set away. Then in the third, Clijsters did the same thing while serving for the match! Very strange performance by both players, on such a big stage.

Honestly, given the way that Kim played yesterday, and the way that Vera did, I have to like the Russian's chances to win her first major tomorrow, and become the first Russian to take home a major title since Kuznetsova last year. Normally, Clijsters would be far and away the favorite, but based on their respective semifinal performances, it's hard to favor the Belgian.

As for the men's semifinals, they appear to be a bit more straightforward. Youzhny faces Nadal, and even though the Russian beat Nadal here, Rafa has since become a different player on this surface. He's managed his schedule better this year, so he comes into the US Open much fitter and on sturdier knees. Rafa is rolling, having won the last 19 matches at majors, and I don't expect this veteran Russian to be able to trouble him tomorrow.

The other semifinal is less straightforward, as Djokovic holds a 5-10 record against Roger. But he's only beaten him once at a Grand Slam, and that was at the Australian Open when Fed was suffering from mono. Djoker has played solid tennis against lower-ranked players this whole year, but he hasn't been able to step up against top players. He's only made a single final, and he won that - but it was in Dubai, where the competition wasn't quite what he can expect tomorrow.

Really, all signs point to a Rafa-Raja final, which is really what everyone (except Djokovic and Youzhny) wants, so let's go ahead with the tennis!

Friday, September 10, 2010

US Open Day 11

Not going to lie, today's US Open action was pretty predictable. Youzhny was just a little bit too steady for a big-hitting Stan Wawrinka in the first quarterfinal, and Nadal was just in a different league than his opponent Verdasco. The conditions were tough for everybody, but in the end, the winners just managed it a little bit better. It was good drama and pretty good tennis, all things considered, but it was all pretty much according to the script.

As for tomorrow, the women's semifinals are set - I think I like Wozniacki over Zvonareva, and I slightly - just slightly - favor Clijsters over Venus, but that one is much tougher to call. The other interesting match to look at is the doubles final - between the top doubles team of Bob and Mike Bryan in addition to the India-Pakistan team of Bopanna and Qureshi. That's a great story, and whether or not they win (I don't think it's incredibly likely, but there's a chance) it's great attention for the sport of tennis and a great step in the direction of more normalized relations.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

US Open Day 10

There isn't too much to say about today's tennis. All four quarterfinal matches were straight set victories for the favorites. There were moments of tension and some intermittently excellent tennis being played, but the only real story of the day was the wind. There were many commentators in the booth or on-court today who have been regularly attending the U.S. Open for ten, twenty, maybe even thirty years, and the consensus seemed to be that this was the windiest open in memory.

It was bizarrely blustery - I'm amazed that Soderling was able to control his toss as well as he was (and even that wasn't especially well) because Cibulkova and Monfils were absolutely baffled by the shifting, swirling winds. Cibulkova did all right once the point was started, but the Frenchman didn't even know how to hit the ball anymore, it seemed. It's a shame that the conditions are so rough, because it really makes for odd tennis. Not necessarily bad tennis, but strange tennis.

I'm really hoping that tomorrow, we'll have some better weather, because there are a pair of potentially excellent matches. Mikhail Youzhny takes on Stan Wawrinka - it's a match between two comparably talented, fairly accomplished players, even though they've both been top twenty stalwarts with only brief visits to the rarefied air of the top ten. This is a big chance for both guys to a grand slam semifinal - I have to think that Wawrinka is going to be more tired at this point, and his injury may be nagging him. But he's also played better up to this point, so who knows? They both have great one-handed backhands - a fairly rare occurrence to see a pair of one-handers facing off this late in a tourney. This one is a tough one to call.

As much as I'd like to say that both matches are close ones, I'm afraid that the second men's quarter is potentially a bit more one-sided. Despite the fact that Nadal and Verdasco played one of the greatest hard-court matches ever at the Australian Open semifinals in 2009, it's hard for me to believe that Verdasco can equal the effort he put forth that day. He has to be drained after his match with Ferrer, and Nadal has just been playing brutal tennis so far this tournament. Not only has he not dropped a set (neither has Federer) but he hasn't even dropped serve. It would take a monumental effort from Verdasco - I'm not saying he isn't capable of it, but it's just not especially likely at this point.

What is likely, honestly, is a Federer-Nadal final. And really, that's not such a bad thing.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

US Open Day 9

Well, that was definitely one of the most exciting days of the open yet, and there are good odds that will be the peak of tournament, in terms of excitement. Out of six matches, three were absolute nail-biting thrillers - Wawrinka over Querrey in five, Verdasco over Ferrer in five, and Clijsters over Stosur in three.

Sam Querrey and Stan Wawrinka was the only match played entirely during the day, dealing with the worst of the wind. But both Sam and Stan were playing some of their best and gutsiest tennis. Sam was clearly the crowd's and the announcer's sentimental favorite, even if it seemed like Wawrinka's experience might see him through the match. And it did turn out that way, more or less - the key moments of the match came while Sam was serving to stay in the third and fifth sets, and Wawrinka turned up his aggression for one last push, and managed to break Sam both times. Querrey just wasn't as good at managing his energy and playing his best on the biggest points - the American had 15 break points to Wawrinka's 8, but Sam was only able to convert 3, while Stan managed to break Querrey's serve that essential fourth time. Chalk this one up to experience - Sam needs to be able to play those points better, because I think that over the course of the day, Querrey was actually the better player. But Wawrinka knew when and how to attack, and even though he was slightly hobbled and running on empty, he came up with a famous victory today. Here's hoping that Querrey will be inspired by this tight, tough loss, and not discouraged about how close he came.

The other men's match was even more brutal and exciting - as Fernando Verdasco came back from two sets to love down against countryman David Ferrer and won in a fifth set tiebreak, in a match that lasted four hours and 38 minutes. That's devastating for Ferrer, who was also up a break in the fifth set and a minibreak in the tiebreak. Verdasco closed the match with an unbelievable, looping forehand winner up the line off a very strong Ferrer volley at net. A really tough match from both guys, but Verdasco showed why his ranking is so high.

The Clijsters-Stosur match was also a tensely fought affair - but I didn't get to see much of it, I'll admit. I'm looking forward to the Clijsters-Venus semifinal though, I can promise you that.

The other matches on the men's side were less thrilling, as Youzhny closed out Robredo in four and Nadal (predictably) ousted Lopez in straight sets. Now Nadal and Verdasco will play a rematch of their epic semifinal in the Australian Open in 2009, one of the best matches of the year. And Wawrinka gets Youzhny - but the Russian is so much more well-rested physically and mentally, I'll be amazed if Wawrinka can pull another rabbit out of his hat.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the quarterfinals are underway on the men's side. Novak Djokovic gets Gael Monfils (I may have been confused last night and thought Monfils was going to play Robredo, despite being in the other half of the draw) and the pair have played some thrilling matches. A tough five-setter five years ago, here at the U.S. Open, and the final of the Paris indoor Masters last year. But Novak has won all four - and while Monfils has looked strong this week, he hasn't even played anybody who was seeded, yet. I have to think that the Djoker gets another win and gets back to the semis.

On the other hand, the Federer-Soderling match is a really appetizing contest. Fed had trounced Soderling repeatedly, and thoroughly, up until this year's French Open, where Soderling broke a number of the Swiss's streaks in one blow, including 12 matches straight against the top Swedish player. Now Federer gets a chance for revenge - last year, they played here in Flushing and Federer won, but it was tight towards the end. If Soderling can start off that way, he'll be in with chance. Federer has looked so sharp thus far, and Soderling actually dropped a set against Albert Montanes, which you just can't do if you want to be in the proper form. Fed is still the huge favorite, but it will be interesting. The most interesting Federer match to this point, by far.

On the women's side, I'm afraid to say that the quarterfinal matches are pretty dull. Wozniacki and Zvonareva should both cruise against their unheralded opponents, unless they suffer some injury or complete mental meltdown. Not much more to say about that.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

US Open Day 8

Labor Day is one of the biggest days of the U.S. Open, both in terms of attendance and television viewership. There were some blockbuster matches lined up for today, but now that they've been played, did they live up to their billing?

In short, it's probably the case that the matches weren't quite what one might have hoped for, in terms of the excitement provided. There were some tight matches, but the losing player only won two sets in eight matches. One of which was a bagel - I'm amazed that Yanina Wickmayer could win the first set 6-0, lose the second set in a tiebreak, then lose the third set 6-1. That's almost like the match that Vera Zvonareva lost last year, although this year the Russian's venture onto center court was much more successful. She blasted Petkovic off the court. Her compatriot and former champion Svetlana Kuznetsova was not quite so lucky, as she fell to Dominika Cibulkova in straight sets. The young Slovakian player didn't have to do much but keep the ball in court, as Kuznetsova committed 42 unforced errors and 10 double faults.

The two headlining matches in the day session didn't quite provide as much drama as one might have hoped, either. It seems like all the tennis that Mardy Fish has been playing recently finally caught up to him, as he looked a bit flat against Novak Djokovic, who on the other hand was quite sharp. What could have been (and what the tournament organizers and promoters were certainly hoping would be) a stunning upset turned out to be a by-the-books beatdown by a higher-ranked player. And on the subject of those sorts of matches, Jurgen Melzer put up a great fight against Roger Federer, but it simply wasn't enough. As if talent and experience weren't enough, Federer benefited from two net cord winners during the second set tiebreak. That was plenty to stop Melzer's pushback.

The real headliner match was between Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova. It was a pretty good match, no question, but once again - the organizers were disappointed in the result. Wozniacki is a talented young player, but the fact is she's not as much of a draw as a player like Sharapova, yet. She probably never will be. Her game is less exciting to watch, but that doesn't mean it's less effective. Today, the returning power of Caroline Wozniacki was better than Sharapova's attacking game. And her course through the rest of the draw is almost comically clear. It will be a shock at this point if we don't have a rematch of last year's final, or at least half of one.

Kim Clijsters still has Venus Williams to contend with in the bottom half of the draw. They're each one win away from facing each other in the semifinals, but those wins are by no means guaranteed. Tomorrow, Venus has to face French Open champ Francesca Schiavone, while Clijsters has to play Sam Stosur, who just beat Elena Dementieva last night - well, technically, earlier this morning. Neither of those matches are guaranteed wins for Clijsters and Venus. This half of the draw has the stronger remaining field, no question. The only interesting question remaining in the tournament on the women's side might just be if these four players beat up on each other so much that whoever faces off against Wozniacki in the final will be too tired to put up enough of a fight.

Meanwhile, we have to determine the second half of the men's quarterfinals. There are five Spaniards playing in four matches, so we'll have at least two in the quarters. Nadal takes on Feliciano Lopez in one of the all-Spanish match-ups. F-Lo beat Nadal on grass at Queens this year, but this is a different situation. Nadal can pass like nobody else, with his high-topspin forehands, and Lopez will make a great target up at net. The much more interesting match is between Verdasco and Ferrer. The pair has played ten times, but only once on hard courts. They're 6-4 overall, which Verdasco leading, and 1-1 on the year. But Ferrer has their only victory on hard courts - albeit that was six years ago. This one is pretty much a pick-em.

The other two matches are also interesting, since with Murray out of that quarter, the semifinal spot is pretty much wide open. Querrey gets Stan Wawrinka, who will be tough to beat if he plays as well as he did against Murray. Querrey is the only player left carrying the U.S. hopes for the men's side after today, but we'll see if that inspires him or if he collapses under the weight. The other side will feature Mikhail Youzhny and Tommy Robredo - an interesting match, as Robredo has benefited from some soft draws and retirements to get this far. Assuming that the Russian doesn't injure himself (or hasn't already) I think he'll be able to oust Robredo, who doesn't really have the weapons to do much against someone who has as much firepower as Youzhny. Youzhny made the semifinals here in 2006, while the other three players in this section have never been that far. Querrey and Wawrinka have never even been past this round at a grand slam, while Robredo is possibly the best active player never to have made it past a GS quarterfinal (he's fighting James Blake for that honor). So here's a lot of guys who have a big chance this week.

Monday, September 6, 2010

US Open Day 7

We have completed the first week of the U.S. Open, and we have one of our first really big upsets - Stan "the Man" Wawrinka came out on fire and demolished the ball against Andy Murray, smacking his serves and blasting his forehand in addition to his backhand. It's exactly the gameplan that has troubled Andy Murray in the past, as big-hitters like Berdych, Gonzalez, and Verdasco have blown him off the court. And it paid dividends - Wawrinka staged the biggest upset of the tournament, a fine tribute to his new coach Peter Lundgren.

Sam Querrey also pulled off what is on paper a pretty good upset, as he demolished the Spaniard Nicolas Almagro in straight sets. While everyone thought that he had earned a spot against Andy Murray, Wawrinka had other thoughts. It will make for a surprising couple of matches, as all of the top four seeds in that quarter of the draw have now fallen.

Today also had a few players who had put up amazing efforts finally breaking down, as Sergiy Stakhovsky and Michael Llodra retired with injury in the middle of their matches. It's always disappointing when it happens, but it's almost inevitable at this stage of the tournament. Some players just run out of gas getting this far.

It doesn't seem like the Spaniards are in any danger of running out of gas, though, as there are six Spanish men in the last 16, 4 of whom are all in one quarter of the draw. Lopez takes on Nadal while Ferrer gets Verdasco in the Spanish quarter, which guarantees at least one Spanish man in the semifinals. Verdasco, by the way, had a big win over the hot Argentine Nalbandian today, in pretty dominant fashion. It may have been that Nalby was a victim of overhype more than anything else - this was his first Grand Slam in almost two years, and people really considered him a dark horse? Under the circumstances, I'd say he had a fine showing.

Starting tomorrow, all of the men's and women's singles matches will be taking place on either Arthur Ashe or Louis Armstrong courts. We're into the second week now, which means that the stakes are much higher for each and every match. It's also interesting because Tennis Channel has the night matches while CBS gets them during the day, which means you get some slightly less interesting matches schedules at night.

For example, night session ticket holders for Arthur Ashe get Zvonareva and Petkovic. Full disclosure - I was in the stadium last year when Zvonareva completely melted down against Flavia Pennetta, so maybe the Russian doesn't have the best memories of that court and that session. But hopefully she has a little bit more mental fortitude in reserve this year - or perhaps she won't need it, as her unseeded German opponent may not be quite as much of a challenge.

And after that, the Tennis channel subscribers get to watch Roger Federer demolish poor Jurgen Melzer, who despite having the best year of his career at 29 has none of the weapons that one would need to get a win over Roger. It will be a beatdown, I have every confidence in the world.

The day matches are much more exciting (which is why you'll be seeing them on CBS). It starts with Svetlana Kuznetsova against Cibulkova, one of the few unseeded players left in the draw. But after that, Mardy Fish gets Novak Djokovic. I can assure you that Mardy and his camp are hoping for a surprising heat wave to come along, because those are the conditions that Novak finds toughest. Fish has yet to win against Djoker in four tries, but he's had a couple of really tight matches. It would still be a huge upset for Mardy to pull this off, but it's not outside the realm of the possible.

And then, the best match of the tournament thus far - the one that everyone was looking forward to as soon as the draw came out. Maria Sharapova gets top seed Caroline Wozniacki, in a match that will likely determine the finalist from this side of the draw. Wozniacki has looked absolutely brilliant through her first three matches, dropping just three games. But she hasn't really been facing opponents of the same caliber as Sharapova. This will be the real test about whether she's a real contender for this title. And Sharapova wants to remind everyone that she's one of the few former champions in this field. This will be a cracker of a match.

The matches on Armstrong are also good, though they probably don't have quite the same star power - it starts with Monfils against Gasquet in an all-French meeting, which will feature a lot of shot-making. They're 2-2 against each other up to this point. Then Wickmayer gets Kanepi go at it (tough to say that there's going to be a lot of interest in that one, honestly) and then Robin Soderling gets Albert Montanes. It's probably the biggest mis-match tomorrow. I don't give Montanes much of a chance.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

US Open Day 6

At the start of the middle weekend, there were not a lot of upsets today. There were a few close matches, but only one that was really tight on each side of the draw. Mardy Fish beat French veteran Arnaud Clement in the fifth set, and Yanina Wickmayer beat Patty Schnyder in a third-set tiebreak. Beyond that, it was a good day, but perhaps not too stunning. It was extremely windy throughout the day, preventing a lot of players from putting their best tennis on display.

It's always interesting - as a grand slam progresses, less and less action is actually taking place in each round. On the other hand, each meeting has more and more importance for the competitors, and because of the seedings, you expect to get bigger clashes at these middle to later stages. So there is more potential for excitement, but if a match turns out to be a bit of a dud, there are fewer places to look for that excitement. Today, Arthur Ashe was stuffed full of straight-set victories. As I mentioned above, Mardy Fish and Yanina Wickmayer provided some excellent, well-fought, tight matches, but for the most part, things went mostly as expected. Jelena Jankovic was upset, but with how she had played in the first two rounds, that couldn't have come as much of a shock.

So let's go ahead and look to tomorrow's action, and see how things are shaping up. At least on paper, tomorrow looks to be a pretty spectacular middle Sunday.

The day starts off with Ana Ivanovic, former world number one and French Open champion, taking on defending champion Kim Clijsters. That's a pretty enticing first round match - it would be Ivanovic's biggest win in a long, long time, if she can pull off the upset. I'll admit that I'm not expecting it, but it could happen, if she could capture some of her old magic. After that, Venus Williams gets her first test, against Israeli Shahar Peer. Venus has looked great through three rounds thus far, but she hasn't really played anyone of consequence. This could be interesting.

After that, Nadal gets his first day match, and he gets the Frenchman Gilles Simon, who has a win over Nadal on hardcourts a couple years ago. He hasn't been at that level for a while, but he has been playing well this week. I'd like to see him back in the area of being seeded at these sorts of events, but I don't expect him to be able to handle Nadal's ball tomorrow.

In the night session, Youzhny gets Isner, an interesting match. Youzhny once made the semis here at the US Open, but it's Isner's home turf, and he is anxious to show everyone what he's made of. He needs to follow up last year's win over Roddick with another big win, and an upset over the Russian in an Arthur Ashe night match. Considering how much press he got at Wimbledon, he's going to have a lot of people rooting for him. And assuming his serve and ankle hold up, he could pull this one out.

And after that, we get Elena Dementieva against Sam Stosur, which really feels more like a semifinal than a fourth round. I don't know who's going to come out on top in that one, but it's almost certainly the most exciting women's matches I've seen on the schedule so far.

On the other courts, things are maybe not quite as rarefied, but still plenty exciting. Schiavone will try to maintain her stupendous form against Pavlyuchenkova. It will be interesting to see how far Schiavone can make it - she seems to be finally over her French Open hangover. And then Sam Querrey plays Nicolas Almagro, a match that will feature a ton of big-hitting and big serves - the winner will be determined by who can pull off their shots more frequently. And then Andy Murray gets Stan Wawrinka... I can hardly believe that's on Louis Armstrong. They played an amazing match at Wimbledon last year, and it may be Murray's first real test. Stan Wawrinka is a former top ten player, and certainly a step up from the level of play offered by Dustin Brown, no offense intended to the top Jamaican player of course.

And on the grandstand - the grandstand! - David Nalbandian takes on Fernando Verdasco, a match which I think could be an absolutely amazing match, even if it doesn't feature any really big-name players, from the perspective of your average US Open attendee. And the Stakhovsky takes on Feliciano Lopez and Robredo takes on Llodra. Those are not going to be star-studded matches, but they should be a lot of fun. Three of those four players are capable of frequently serving and volleying, with only Robredo usually staying on the baseline. This would be an excellent day to plant yourself courtside on the grandstand.

Ferrer also takes on Daniel Gimeno-Traver, but they put that on court 11 for a reason - Ferrer will dismantle his countryman, I assure you of that. That's the match I see tomorrow which has the lowest chance of being an exciting contest. The rest all have the potential to be classics.