We're through to the final four in both of the ATP tournaments taking place this week, and there are some very appetizing match-ups. Quarterfinals day was maybe lacking some of the excitement that it looked like it might have had, but there was still some amazing tennis on display.
Out of the eight matches taking place today, only two were not won in straight sets. Argentine Juan Monaco faltered against Lucky Loser Marcel Granollers, who continues his campaign as one of the two remaining Spaniards in Valencia. That's a big win for Granollers, who was 17-20 on the year coming into this tournament. Unfortunately, I don't think he can pull of that magic again in the semis, as he faces Gilles Simon, who ousted Nikolay Davydenko in three - though it should have only taken two. Davydenko played brilliantly for intervals, but then he would completely lose his way. In the end, Simon was just too steady.
The other semifinal may not go terribly well for the other remaining Spaniard, David Ferrer, who is rewarded for his straight sets defeat of Andreas Seppi with the dominant player of the tournament thus far, Robin Soderling, who ousted Gael Monfils as if it were no small feat. It was strong play from Soderling, but honestly, Monfils didn't really show up for this match, which is a shame. Having just won a tournament last week and summarily dismissed Stanislas Wawrinka in the previous round, I was hopeful that Monfils had reached a new level in his career, but the quality of his play dropped precipitously in the quarterfinals. I expect Ferrer will be a sterner test for the Swede, but Soderling leads their head-head 8-3, including winning 3 out of 4 matches played this year.
Ferrer is in a tricky situation, which is that he needs to accumulate points to cement his place in the year-end-championships, but he doesn't want to exhaust himself before next week's tournament in Paris, where there are even more points on offer. A loss here wouldn't be the end of the world. Another player who is in the exact same boat is Andy Roddick, who wishes he was merely 3-8 against his semifinal opponent. But no, the American faces off against his greatest nemesis and hometown hero Roger Federer, against whom Roddick is a dismal 2-19. This is their first meeting since the epic Wimbledon final in July of 2009, and also the site of their very first meeting way back in 2001. Federer won that one in a third set tiebreak, and it may be a similar result tomorrow. A win for Roddick would be huge, but a loss isn't going to hurt his spirit too much - he came into this week without any serious expectations, considering his layoff, and he has played some great tennis. If he gets an extra day to get to France for the Paris Masters and get himself ready for that tournament, that's just fine. And really, it's tough to bet on the guy with a 2-19 record.
The final semi features a rematch of one of the most significant early round matches at the U.S. Open - Serb Novak Djokovic played his junior countryman Viktor Troicki and looked out of it in the very first round, down a break in a decisive set, and with a point to go down a double break. Djokovic managed to claw his way back to win the match and ultimately go on to beat Federer in the semis and make the final. Since then, Troicki won the first tournament of his career. Djokovic, of course, is trying to defend the title he won here last year. I expect that Novak will win this one, but it could be tricky, if Troicki brings his best stuff to the court.
Despite all the other matches going on tomorrow, the biggest question of the day will be whether Roddick can maybe pull of that magical upset and get another notch on his belt against Federer. It's not a decisive match for either player in terms of career trajectories, but a win would be a huge boost for Andy. For Federer, it probably won't affect him too much either way, and Roddick won't be surprised if he comes up second best. But a win could Roddick all kinds of momentum heading into the year's final weeks. After a very up-and-down year, it would be great to end on a high note.
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Friday, November 5, 2010
Week 44 Quarterfinals
Interesting results so far in this penultimate week of regular ATP action. Since it's the end of the season, some players are battered and bruised - before play even started, four of the sixteen seeds withdrew because of injury or exhaustion: Melzer, Youzhny, Tsonga, and Ljubicic. Three of them had been in finals just a few days prior, so it shouldn't be too surprising. Tsonga's season is over with a knee injury, so you can't blame him for pulling out, and Youzhny was hampered by a back problem in his loss in the final. But all three of them were in the running for the year-end finals in London, so it's a shame they couldn't try to make a big push.
As for that run-up to London, there were quite a few players who were still in the running who did make it to play this week. Fernando Verdasco, just on the verge of qualifying in ninth place, won one match before he got trounced by Gilles Simon. He's now won a single match since he made the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open, and unless he has a sharp turnaround in form and gets to at least the quarters in next week's masters event, it's almost certain that he'll miss out. The top contender who hadn't yet clinched his spot, Tomas Berdych, continued a similar vein of bad play in his loss to Tobias Kamke, but thanks to the poor performance of the other contenders, I am pretty confident that he'll stumble into the championships all the same. Marin Cilic also had a possibility of making the finals, but he lost to Nalbandian today, and he's done.
The players in seventh and eighth, the last two spots that haven't been decided, are the only ones doing well. David Ferrer is in to the quarterfinals in Valencia, while Andy Roddick is at the same stage in Basel. Both are showing good form, and should head into the finals with some momentum. It's almost a shame that there was so much chance for excitement as we come down to the wire, but it's all but assured at this point that the players who were in the top eight a month or so ago will remain in those positions and get to the final. Not a lot of movement in those top spots in the points race.
Anyway, the quarterfinals on offer tomorrow are really extremely strong, consider these are merely 500-level tournaments. It shows the depth of the draws, as well as the fact that not all of the top players run out of gas as the season winds down. In Basel, Roger Federer gets the tricky Czech Radek Stepanek - the match would have been potentially tough a year or two ago, but Stepanek has slowed down a lot this year, and he hasn't been able to frustrate opponents the way he used to. Particularly in his hometown tournament, you can expect Federer to get through without too much trouble.
Who Federer's opponent will be is not so clear, though. Andy Roddick plays David Nalbandian for a shot at Federer in the semis, and that's a popcorn match. Who can forget the five-set thriller they played way back in the 2003 U.S. Open semifinals, where Roddick saved a match point before he went on to win the title? Now Roddick is much higher ranked than Nalby coming into the event, but Nalbandian is still capable of playing well enough to beat just about anybody, and the strength of his return matches up well against Roddick's biggest asset, his serve. I lean towards Roddick here, but it could go either way.
In the bottom half of the draw, Viktor Troicki plays Richard Gasquet, while Novak Djokovic plays Robin Haase, who is coming back from an injury layoff. Best of luck to the young Dutch player, but his campaign ends against Djokovic, who looked awesome against Jarkko Nieminen. The other quarter is tougher to call, though. Troicki and Gasquet are both very strong players just getting into the middle stage of their careers, and while Gasuqet is trying to get back to the level he was at a few years ago, Troicki is playing some of the best he's ever played, just now starting to live up to his potential. This one could go either way.
In Valencia, there are three Spaniards left, and it's a shame that two of them have to play each other. Juan Monaco needs to follow up the biggest win he's had in a long time when he ousted Andy Murray in the second round. He'll play lucky loser Granollers, and he should get through that one. The other Spaniard, David Ferrer, gets Italian Andreas Seppi, and he should win that one with ease. The other two semis, though, are much more interesting.
Gilles Simon, who ousted Fernando Verdasco, gets another struggling top player in Nikolay Davydenko. The two have similar games, though Davydenko does a bit more heavy hitting and Simon does a bit more running, they're both brutal counterpunchers. Neither player has been at their best this year, but a good finish to this season could set the stage for a renewed campaign in 2011. I lean towards Simon based on recent form, but Davydenko is a very dangerous player. The final quarterfinal is a thriller - Gael Monfils, who is on one of the longest winning streaks of his career, gets second seed Robin Soderling after a thorough dismantling of a dangerous opponent in Stan Wawrinka. I actually lean towards Monfils pulling the upset, as he's been showing some very encouraging signs of a new level of seriousness in his approach to his tennis.
In any case, tomorrow looks to be an excellent day of tennis. I'm eager to see how it plays out.
As for that run-up to London, there were quite a few players who were still in the running who did make it to play this week. Fernando Verdasco, just on the verge of qualifying in ninth place, won one match before he got trounced by Gilles Simon. He's now won a single match since he made the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open, and unless he has a sharp turnaround in form and gets to at least the quarters in next week's masters event, it's almost certain that he'll miss out. The top contender who hadn't yet clinched his spot, Tomas Berdych, continued a similar vein of bad play in his loss to Tobias Kamke, but thanks to the poor performance of the other contenders, I am pretty confident that he'll stumble into the championships all the same. Marin Cilic also had a possibility of making the finals, but he lost to Nalbandian today, and he's done.
The players in seventh and eighth, the last two spots that haven't been decided, are the only ones doing well. David Ferrer is in to the quarterfinals in Valencia, while Andy Roddick is at the same stage in Basel. Both are showing good form, and should head into the finals with some momentum. It's almost a shame that there was so much chance for excitement as we come down to the wire, but it's all but assured at this point that the players who were in the top eight a month or so ago will remain in those positions and get to the final. Not a lot of movement in those top spots in the points race.
Anyway, the quarterfinals on offer tomorrow are really extremely strong, consider these are merely 500-level tournaments. It shows the depth of the draws, as well as the fact that not all of the top players run out of gas as the season winds down. In Basel, Roger Federer gets the tricky Czech Radek Stepanek - the match would have been potentially tough a year or two ago, but Stepanek has slowed down a lot this year, and he hasn't been able to frustrate opponents the way he used to. Particularly in his hometown tournament, you can expect Federer to get through without too much trouble.
Who Federer's opponent will be is not so clear, though. Andy Roddick plays David Nalbandian for a shot at Federer in the semis, and that's a popcorn match. Who can forget the five-set thriller they played way back in the 2003 U.S. Open semifinals, where Roddick saved a match point before he went on to win the title? Now Roddick is much higher ranked than Nalby coming into the event, but Nalbandian is still capable of playing well enough to beat just about anybody, and the strength of his return matches up well against Roddick's biggest asset, his serve. I lean towards Roddick here, but it could go either way.
In the bottom half of the draw, Viktor Troicki plays Richard Gasquet, while Novak Djokovic plays Robin Haase, who is coming back from an injury layoff. Best of luck to the young Dutch player, but his campaign ends against Djokovic, who looked awesome against Jarkko Nieminen. The other quarter is tougher to call, though. Troicki and Gasquet are both very strong players just getting into the middle stage of their careers, and while Gasuqet is trying to get back to the level he was at a few years ago, Troicki is playing some of the best he's ever played, just now starting to live up to his potential. This one could go either way.
In Valencia, there are three Spaniards left, and it's a shame that two of them have to play each other. Juan Monaco needs to follow up the biggest win he's had in a long time when he ousted Andy Murray in the second round. He'll play lucky loser Granollers, and he should get through that one. The other Spaniard, David Ferrer, gets Italian Andreas Seppi, and he should win that one with ease. The other two semis, though, are much more interesting.
Gilles Simon, who ousted Fernando Verdasco, gets another struggling top player in Nikolay Davydenko. The two have similar games, though Davydenko does a bit more heavy hitting and Simon does a bit more running, they're both brutal counterpunchers. Neither player has been at their best this year, but a good finish to this season could set the stage for a renewed campaign in 2011. I lean towards Simon based on recent form, but Davydenko is a very dangerous player. The final quarterfinal is a thriller - Gael Monfils, who is on one of the longest winning streaks of his career, gets second seed Robin Soderling after a thorough dismantling of a dangerous opponent in Stan Wawrinka. I actually lean towards Monfils pulling the upset, as he's been showing some very encouraging signs of a new level of seriousness in his approach to his tennis.
In any case, tomorrow looks to be an excellent day of tennis. I'm eager to see how it plays out.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Week 43 Wrap-Up and Week 44 Preview
We had four finals take place today, and all but one went three sets. Shockingly, the one that was a straight-set victory was the one that featured a first-time finalist upsetting a top ten player and multiple title winner already this year. Mikhail Youzhny was in his fifth final of 2010, while Kukushkin was just in the first of his career. However, Kukushkin got a bit lucky, because the top seed had just played three consecutive three set matches, and he had saved match points in the last two. No matter how tough you are, that will wear on a player. Youzhny must have been drained in losing the final 6-2, 7-6(2). A great showing for the other Mikhail (the first final this year between players who share the same name, by the way), who jumps up 30 spots in the ranking.
The other finals were all close, but none was closer than the all-Austrian final between Jurgen Melzer and Andreas Haider-Maurer. Despite having a great year and enjoying his career high ranking, Melzer had yet to win a title this year, and he was defending points from a victory in last year's Vienna tournament. On the other hand, Haider-Maurer had barely played in any top tier tournaments in his career, and he only made it into the tournament as a lucky loser. He won the first set in an incredibly tight tiebreak, then lost the second set in another tiebreak. After that, the veteran's experience won out. But Haider-Maurer will be back - his play was really a revelation, this week.
In France, Gael Monfils played Ivan Ljubicic. Neither player has a winning record in finals, but the Frenchman's record was just abysmal. He was 2-9 coming in to this week, but the advantage of the hometown crowd allowed him to overcome a short patch of sub-standard play and win the match and the title in three sets. Kudos to Monfils - he could really be a different caliber of player if he could improve his record in these sorts of big, decisive matches.
Of course, the biggest final of the week was between Kim Clijsters and year-end number one Caroline Wozniacki. It would have been the biggest title of Wozniacki's career, but it wasn't going to happen. Kim has won the year-end title twice before, and she won in a hard-fought match, but her victory never really seemed to be in doubt. Wozniacki raised her level of play to come back from being down 4-1 in the secon set to win it 7-5, but she couldn't keep it up and Clijsters won in the third. It's a bit of a disappointing end to the season for Caroline, but consider her lack of a major win (and her less-than-stellar results against the top players) means that despite her number one ranking, she has a lot of room to improve her results next year. And at age 20, there's no reason she can't do just that.
Looking ahead to next week, we have a pair of 500-level tournaments taking place in Valencia, Spain and Basel, Switzerland. Since this the second-last week of regular ATP action for the season, the fields are stacked. Seventeen of the world's top 20 players are in action. The only ones missing are Marcos Baghdatis, who withdraw from Basel, Mardy Fish, whose season ended a couple weeks ago with injury, and Rafael Nadal - and really, what does he need with another 500 tournament?
It's tough to say which draw is tougher - both of them are filled with dangerous players, and there are a lot of first-round matches that could just as well be quarterfinals. It's also true that this is crunch time for the seven players who have a shot at grabbing one of the three remaining spots in the year-end championships.
In Valencia, Andy Murray is the top seed, but he's certainly not guaranteed an easy path to the final. He opens against Feliciano Lopez, and then gets Juan Monaco, the only player to have already played his first-round match. Getting through that, he'll probably get Tsonga or Tursunov in the quarterfinals - Tsonga is one of the players who has an outside shot of making the year-end championships, but he'll need really good runs this week and next. His second-round match against Tursunov is one to look forward to, it it comes to pass, as an indicator of Tsonga's chances at making a run and whether or not Tursunov is really back to his old self again.
Fernando Verdasco is currently ninth in the race for the year-end championships, but he hasn't won a match since the U.S. Open. He opens against American qualifier Michael Russell, which is a tricky one but should be winnable. After that, it only gets tougher, as he'll get either Sergiy Stakhovsky or Gilles Simon in the second round, but then things get a bit easier - it'll be either Davydenko or Kohlschreiber, neither of whom have been in great form recently.
The next quarter has two players who are trying to make the ATP tour finals, with Youzhny and Ferrer both vying for spots. The Russian is in a bit of trouble, having played through to the final in St. Petersburg and then needing to travel before play starts up, but his section isn't too tricky until he might find himself up against Ferrer in the quarters. The only other potential spoilers in that section are Arnaud clement and (maybe) Teymuraz Gabashvili, though Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who beat Nadal during the Asian swing, opens against Ferrer, as well.
The last quarter has Gael Monfils and Robing Soderling, as well as Stan Wawrinka and Nicolas Almagro. Lots of heavy hitting in this section, for sure. Any of those four guys could find their way through to the semifinals, but each of them has a relatively easy first round. There's no shortage of fireworks in this draw, as you can see.
But there may actually be even more in Basel, if you can believe it. Of course, Roger Federer is the top seed, and he opens against young Ukrainian player Alexandr Dolgopolov. And after that, he gets either Tipsarevic or Istomin. Now none of those guys are top players, but they all have the potential to hit with heavyweights on any given day. In the quarters, he may get either Stepanek or (more likely) Jurgen Melzer. Fed has made the final here for the past four years, and I wouldn't be shocked if he made a run again.
The player most likely to stand in his way (or at least hope to) is probably Andy Roddick, who is hoping he's fully recovered from the injury that shortened his campaign during the Asian swing. He opens against Sam Querrey, who has only won a single match since the U.S. Open, but he did beat Roddick the last time they played. After that, Roddick could play either Belgian vet Xavier Malisse or up-and-coming big hitter Andry Golubev. The other section of Roddick's quarter may have Cilic as the top seed, but he hasn't been playing like it. You have to think that the favorite to get through to be Roddick's quarterfinal opponent (assuming he lives up to his seeding) is David Nalbandian.
The third quarter in Basel has Ljubicic, last week's losing finalist in Montpellier, Florian Mayer, who lost to Federer in the Stockholm final, Troicki, who just won his first career title, and Michael Berrer, who was a semifinalist in Vienna. As if that wasn't enough, it also has Richard Gasquet and Tomas Berdych. The Czech player is next in line to qualify for the year-end championships, but he also is in pretty poor form, since he hasn't won more than two consecutive matches since he lost in the Wimbledon final. He doesn't need many wins to secure his spot in the finals, but he's going to need a couple this week and next in order not to slide out of the top eight. He gets lucky loser Tobias Kamke as a first round, which is about as good as he could hope for. Gasquet in the second round is a trickier ask...
The final quarter of the draw has what could be the most appetizing first-round match of the week. Second-seed Novak Djokovic opens against Ernests Gulbis, which would have been a blockbuster in the Spring, but Ernests has been having trouble recently, while Djokovic has been playing some of his best tennis. I think the Djokovic may have more trouble with his second round match against (in all likelihood) Jarkko Nieminen, who has been enjoying a rich vein of form at the end of the season. Meanwhile, he could get John Isner in the quarterfinals, if Isner can get past French net rusher Michael Llodra. That should be a fun one to see, too.
As you can see, there's a lot going on this week, and a lot on the line for some of the players involved. I'm excited to see how it plays out!
The other finals were all close, but none was closer than the all-Austrian final between Jurgen Melzer and Andreas Haider-Maurer. Despite having a great year and enjoying his career high ranking, Melzer had yet to win a title this year, and he was defending points from a victory in last year's Vienna tournament. On the other hand, Haider-Maurer had barely played in any top tier tournaments in his career, and he only made it into the tournament as a lucky loser. He won the first set in an incredibly tight tiebreak, then lost the second set in another tiebreak. After that, the veteran's experience won out. But Haider-Maurer will be back - his play was really a revelation, this week.
In France, Gael Monfils played Ivan Ljubicic. Neither player has a winning record in finals, but the Frenchman's record was just abysmal. He was 2-9 coming in to this week, but the advantage of the hometown crowd allowed him to overcome a short patch of sub-standard play and win the match and the title in three sets. Kudos to Monfils - he could really be a different caliber of player if he could improve his record in these sorts of big, decisive matches.
Of course, the biggest final of the week was between Kim Clijsters and year-end number one Caroline Wozniacki. It would have been the biggest title of Wozniacki's career, but it wasn't going to happen. Kim has won the year-end title twice before, and she won in a hard-fought match, but her victory never really seemed to be in doubt. Wozniacki raised her level of play to come back from being down 4-1 in the secon set to win it 7-5, but she couldn't keep it up and Clijsters won in the third. It's a bit of a disappointing end to the season for Caroline, but consider her lack of a major win (and her less-than-stellar results against the top players) means that despite her number one ranking, she has a lot of room to improve her results next year. And at age 20, there's no reason she can't do just that.
Looking ahead to next week, we have a pair of 500-level tournaments taking place in Valencia, Spain and Basel, Switzerland. Since this the second-last week of regular ATP action for the season, the fields are stacked. Seventeen of the world's top 20 players are in action. The only ones missing are Marcos Baghdatis, who withdraw from Basel, Mardy Fish, whose season ended a couple weeks ago with injury, and Rafael Nadal - and really, what does he need with another 500 tournament?
It's tough to say which draw is tougher - both of them are filled with dangerous players, and there are a lot of first-round matches that could just as well be quarterfinals. It's also true that this is crunch time for the seven players who have a shot at grabbing one of the three remaining spots in the year-end championships.
In Valencia, Andy Murray is the top seed, but he's certainly not guaranteed an easy path to the final. He opens against Feliciano Lopez, and then gets Juan Monaco, the only player to have already played his first-round match. Getting through that, he'll probably get Tsonga or Tursunov in the quarterfinals - Tsonga is one of the players who has an outside shot of making the year-end championships, but he'll need really good runs this week and next. His second-round match against Tursunov is one to look forward to, it it comes to pass, as an indicator of Tsonga's chances at making a run and whether or not Tursunov is really back to his old self again.
Fernando Verdasco is currently ninth in the race for the year-end championships, but he hasn't won a match since the U.S. Open. He opens against American qualifier Michael Russell, which is a tricky one but should be winnable. After that, it only gets tougher, as he'll get either Sergiy Stakhovsky or Gilles Simon in the second round, but then things get a bit easier - it'll be either Davydenko or Kohlschreiber, neither of whom have been in great form recently.
The next quarter has two players who are trying to make the ATP tour finals, with Youzhny and Ferrer both vying for spots. The Russian is in a bit of trouble, having played through to the final in St. Petersburg and then needing to travel before play starts up, but his section isn't too tricky until he might find himself up against Ferrer in the quarters. The only other potential spoilers in that section are Arnaud clement and (maybe) Teymuraz Gabashvili, though Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who beat Nadal during the Asian swing, opens against Ferrer, as well.
The last quarter has Gael Monfils and Robing Soderling, as well as Stan Wawrinka and Nicolas Almagro. Lots of heavy hitting in this section, for sure. Any of those four guys could find their way through to the semifinals, but each of them has a relatively easy first round. There's no shortage of fireworks in this draw, as you can see.
But there may actually be even more in Basel, if you can believe it. Of course, Roger Federer is the top seed, and he opens against young Ukrainian player Alexandr Dolgopolov. And after that, he gets either Tipsarevic or Istomin. Now none of those guys are top players, but they all have the potential to hit with heavyweights on any given day. In the quarters, he may get either Stepanek or (more likely) Jurgen Melzer. Fed has made the final here for the past four years, and I wouldn't be shocked if he made a run again.
The player most likely to stand in his way (or at least hope to) is probably Andy Roddick, who is hoping he's fully recovered from the injury that shortened his campaign during the Asian swing. He opens against Sam Querrey, who has only won a single match since the U.S. Open, but he did beat Roddick the last time they played. After that, Roddick could play either Belgian vet Xavier Malisse or up-and-coming big hitter Andry Golubev. The other section of Roddick's quarter may have Cilic as the top seed, but he hasn't been playing like it. You have to think that the favorite to get through to be Roddick's quarterfinal opponent (assuming he lives up to his seeding) is David Nalbandian.
The third quarter in Basel has Ljubicic, last week's losing finalist in Montpellier, Florian Mayer, who lost to Federer in the Stockholm final, Troicki, who just won his first career title, and Michael Berrer, who was a semifinalist in Vienna. As if that wasn't enough, it also has Richard Gasquet and Tomas Berdych. The Czech player is next in line to qualify for the year-end championships, but he also is in pretty poor form, since he hasn't won more than two consecutive matches since he lost in the Wimbledon final. He doesn't need many wins to secure his spot in the finals, but he's going to need a couple this week and next in order not to slide out of the top eight. He gets lucky loser Tobias Kamke as a first round, which is about as good as he could hope for. Gasquet in the second round is a trickier ask...
The final quarter of the draw has what could be the most appetizing first-round match of the week. Second-seed Novak Djokovic opens against Ernests Gulbis, which would have been a blockbuster in the Spring, but Ernests has been having trouble recently, while Djokovic has been playing some of his best tennis. I think the Djokovic may have more trouble with his second round match against (in all likelihood) Jarkko Nieminen, who has been enjoying a rich vein of form at the end of the season. Meanwhile, he could get John Isner in the quarterfinals, if Isner can get past French net rusher Michael Llodra. That should be a fun one to see, too.
As you can see, there's a lot going on this week, and a lot on the line for some of the players involved. I'm excited to see how it plays out!
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