And that does it! The race to the year-end championships in London finished today, with one win and one loss. Andy Roddick started off the day with a victory over Ernests Gulbis, which gave him enough points to ensure that Jurgen Melzer was unable to qualify for the top eight, even if he were to run through the draw and win the whole tournament. After that Monfils recovered from a complete misstep of a drop shot that cost him the first set tiebreak to beat Fernando Verdasco, the last remaining challenger for one of those eight spots. With the other contenders out of the running, Berdych, Ferrer, and Roddick were all assured of qualifying for the elite group.
However, this didn't necessarily inspire them to stellar play. Tomas Berdych was up a set and in a second-set tiebreak against Nikolay Davydenko, when apparently the wheels just came off. After losing the tiebreak, Davydenko fed Berdych a bagel, improving his record to 9-1 against the Czech. And David Ferrer lost a tightly-contested (but not especially well-played match) against Jurgen Melzer, who ended up enjoying the conditions more than his baselining, dirtballing Spaniard opponent. Whether Melzer was disappointed or relieved by not having to worry about qualifying for London, one can't be sure, but it was still a good win over Ferrer, who's been playing good tennis in this last part of the season.
The other upset of the day was a complete and utter shocker. Michael Llodra came up with some absolutely inspired tennis to beat Novak Djokovic, the second seed and defending champion. Down 6-3 in the first set tiebreaker, Llodra played five of the best points of his career to come back win it, 8-6. And he kept that form up in the second set, breaking Djokovic twice while saving the three break points he faced. This was a huge match, because the pair will likely face off again in a couple weeks in the Davis Cup final. France may not have anyone in the year-end championship, but they do have a couple players who are finishing the year hot, which they'll need to be to go into a hostile Belgrade and win the Cup.
The other matches of the day were not terribly interesting. Federer beat Stepanek, and is starting to look a lot like his imperious old self again. Soderling wasn't too challenged by Wawrinka either, who was unable to finish his season by building on his big run at the U.S. Open. And Andy Murray was too steady for Cilic, who really outplayed the Scot for much of the match, but wilted in the pressure moments. The Croat looked ready to become a major player at the start of the year, but he has not finished strong. He has a ton of points to defend in the first few months of 2011 as well, so here's hoping he can find his form in the off-season.
Looking ahead to the quarterfinals, we continue to have some very appetizing match-ups. Jurgen Melzer plays sacrificial lamb to Roger Federer. They've played twice this year, both times in Grand Slams, and Federer has won 6 out of 6 sets. Only one even went to a tiebreak, the others were either 6-2 or 6-3. But Melzer is playing with house money at this point. He'll be going to London for doubles, so he'll certainly be signed up as an alternate in case one of the top eight guys is injured (still not sure how Rafa's shoulder and knees are doing...) and there's no reason for him to do anything but play his best tennis at this point. That said, that probably won't be enough to trouble Federer.
Federer's semifinal opponent may be too close to call at this point, but whoever it may be, we know they're nursing an injury. Gael Monfils was troubled by some knee problems in his victory over Verdasco (the crowd really helped him over the finish line) and Andy Murray's wrist was bothering him in his match against Nalbandian. Murray leads the head-to-head against Monfils, but the Frenchman loves playing in Paris, and he made the final here last year. The Parisian crowd doesn't seem to be too enamored of the petulant, fussy Scotsman, so expect them to be a major factor in the match, if it's close. Monfils needs to show up, though - if he plays his passive game, he'll be toast. Murray is just as a good a defender as he is, and on most days, Murray is better at turning defense into attack. Still, this should be a fun one.
In the bottom half of the draw, the sudden loss of Novak Djokovic makes the stronger semifinal significantly more important. Instead of the Djoker waiting in the semis, the winner of the Roddick-Soderling match will get either Nikolay Davydenko, who has been in poor form this part of the season, or Michael Llodra, who may have put on an astounding performance against Djokovic, but it seems unlikely that he'll be able to maintain that form. He lost to a player ranked 131st in the world at a French challenger just a few weeks ago.
So whoever wins between Andy Roddick and Robin Soderling will feel like they've got their ticket to the finals punched. The pair has already played twice this year in ATP Masters Series events, and Roddick came out on top both times, but they were both decided by extremely close margins. Soderling's record is strange - despite having made 2 Grand Slam finals, he's never made the final of a Masters event. There are two factors in play here that will make this match interesting: the first is that the court surface here is incredibly quick, which helps Roddick since Soderling takes huge swings at his groundstrokes, and the timing is much tougher on a fast surface. That's why Soderling excels on the slow clay of Roland Garros, the bounce gives him time to set up for his shots. But on the other hand, the other two times Roddick played Soderling were both outdoors and on U.S. soil. Of course, Roddick thrives in America, but being indoors helps Soderling on his serve, since he has one of the highest ball tosses in the game, and the lack of wind or sunlight helps him with that. Soderling actually beat Roddick indoors in France back in 2008. This is a real pick-em, with a lot on the line for both guys.
The other quarterfinal, between Davydenko and Llodra, will be interesting because nobody really expected either of these guys to make it thus far, much less further. But sometime, you can find your form at just the right time and see the draw open up for you a bit, and turn around a rather humdrum year. It will also be interesting to see if Llodra can continue to conjur up the kind of magic he displayed against Djokovic, which was really some stupendous stuff.
I like that the season is ending with a bang, and a lot of the top players still at their best. It often has happened in the past that the top guys lose their motivation in the final weeks of the season, which is why the Paris final has often had some surprising winners in the past, and why Federer has never gotten past the quarters here - before this year, anyway.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Paris Masters Round of 16
Despite the fact that we're in the last week of the regular tennis year, a time where there are always some renewed calls for the shortening of the season, the tournament in Paris has been relatively free of big-name upsets. The top players don't seem particularly jaded or worn out, at least through the first two rounds. Out of the 16 seeds, only four have lost thus far, the highest of which was Mikhail Youzhny, who retired against Ernests Gulbis with an injury. In addition to the ninth-seeded Russian, Nicolas Almagro lost to Radek Stepanek, Ivan Ljubicic lost to Stan Wawrinka, and John Isner lost to Michael Llodra. Really, none of those are shocking results, and as a result of the dearth of surprising matches in the first couple rounds, the latter stages of the tournament are shaping up to be very interesting.
The top quarter features Roger Federer against Radek Stepanek, and they played as recently as last week in Basel. Unfortunately for Radek, he got blitzed in that match, and I don't see any reason why he won't suffer the same fate. The second match in this quarter, though, is potentially more interesting. Jurgen Melzer and David Ferrer are both aiming to qualify for the year-end championships, and while Melzer needs this match to keep his chances alive, Ferrer could lose this match and still have a good chance of making it to London. The Spaniard looked a little shaky against the Italian Fognini today, so he may be troubled by Melzer, who is still on a winning streak from his title in Vienna.
The other big match for the ATP Tour finals tomorrow is between Gael Monfils and Fernando Verdasco. If either Verdasco or Melzer loses, then Berdych qualifies automatically. If both lose, then Roddick, Ferrer, and Berdych have all sealed their spots. Verdasco was almost out of the tournament in the first round, down a set to Frenchman Arnaud Clement, before he reeled off nine straight games to win the match. That had more to do with Clement than Hot Sauce, though. Monfils also had trouble in his first round match, coming back from a double-break and 5-1 down in the first set to win it in two. Monfils will have to start a lot better against Fernando, but based on their recent form and the home field advantage, you have to learn towards Le Monf in this one.
The fourth match in the top half of the draw is a rematch of this year's Australian Open semifinal between Andy Murray and Marin Cilic. You have to say, considering how hot both of those players were at that point in the year, neither one had the success they might have expected this season. Cilic has been playing quite poorly since as far back as the clay-court swing, showing none of the firepower he demonstrated at the end of last year and the start of this one. Andy Murray just got through a very tough second-round match against David Nalbandian, who is frankly playing better tennis than the Croat these days. It'd be tough for Cilic to upset Murray again, even though he showed he has the potential to play that well when he trounced the Scot in last year's U.S. Open. He hasn't been able to play that level of tennis lately.
In the bottom half, Andy Roddick gets another early start - playing at 10:30 in the morning for the second straight day. It certainly didn't bother him in his match against Jarkko Nieminen, and I don't expect it should affect him much against Gulbis. The Latvian is another player who is capable of beating Roddick - of beating anybody, really - but he hasn't been at his best lately. Gulbis will have to play better tennis than he's played since the French Open, or hope that Roddick's serve isn't firing tomorrow. At least one of those things will have to happen for Ernie to hope to spoil the American's bid for another appearance at the year-end championships.
Roddick or Gulbis will probably be playing Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals, unless Stanislas Wawrinka can pull off an upset. The Swiss number two looked to be poised for a career resurgence at the U.S. Open, where he blew Andy Murray off the court, finished the campaign of the last American standing, and made his first career grand slam quarterfinal. Since then, he's gone 4-3, but he has lost to Federer, Nadal, and Monfils, so those were tough matches. But Wawrinka needs to end the season with another big win under his belt under the wing of new coach Peter Lundgren. Soderling might just be that scalp. That's going to be an interesting one.
Novak Djokovic has the unenviable task of playing one of the two remaining Frenchmen in Paris, as Michael Llodra upset John Isner, who was probably ready to end his season and pay attention to some NCAA football. Djokovic won this title last year, so he has a lot of points to defend, and has been playing solid tennis since the U.S. Open, since the only person he's lost to in that time was Roger Federer. Tough luck for Llodra, but this match could be an interesting preview of the second singles rubber at the Davis Cup final in a couple weeks. Both of these players will be looking to learn as much about their opponents as possible tomorrow, in preparation for that tie.
The last Round of 16 match is another interesting one. Tomas Berdych plays Nikolay Davydenko. Berdych is the higher-ranked player, but the question of who's in better form is really a race to the bottom. Berdych hasn't made a tournament semifinal since Wimbledon, and Davydenko hasn't made one since Rotterdam, back in February! But Davydenko owns the Czech in the head-to-head, winning 8 of their 9 matches, and his only loss came at Wimbledon, where Davydenko could lose to just about anybody. I don't know who to lean towards in this one, but if Berdych loses, he won't have much confidence heading into the year-end championships.
The top quarter features Roger Federer against Radek Stepanek, and they played as recently as last week in Basel. Unfortunately for Radek, he got blitzed in that match, and I don't see any reason why he won't suffer the same fate. The second match in this quarter, though, is potentially more interesting. Jurgen Melzer and David Ferrer are both aiming to qualify for the year-end championships, and while Melzer needs this match to keep his chances alive, Ferrer could lose this match and still have a good chance of making it to London. The Spaniard looked a little shaky against the Italian Fognini today, so he may be troubled by Melzer, who is still on a winning streak from his title in Vienna.
The other big match for the ATP Tour finals tomorrow is between Gael Monfils and Fernando Verdasco. If either Verdasco or Melzer loses, then Berdych qualifies automatically. If both lose, then Roddick, Ferrer, and Berdych have all sealed their spots. Verdasco was almost out of the tournament in the first round, down a set to Frenchman Arnaud Clement, before he reeled off nine straight games to win the match. That had more to do with Clement than Hot Sauce, though. Monfils also had trouble in his first round match, coming back from a double-break and 5-1 down in the first set to win it in two. Monfils will have to start a lot better against Fernando, but based on their recent form and the home field advantage, you have to learn towards Le Monf in this one.
The fourth match in the top half of the draw is a rematch of this year's Australian Open semifinal between Andy Murray and Marin Cilic. You have to say, considering how hot both of those players were at that point in the year, neither one had the success they might have expected this season. Cilic has been playing quite poorly since as far back as the clay-court swing, showing none of the firepower he demonstrated at the end of last year and the start of this one. Andy Murray just got through a very tough second-round match against David Nalbandian, who is frankly playing better tennis than the Croat these days. It'd be tough for Cilic to upset Murray again, even though he showed he has the potential to play that well when he trounced the Scot in last year's U.S. Open. He hasn't been able to play that level of tennis lately.
In the bottom half, Andy Roddick gets another early start - playing at 10:30 in the morning for the second straight day. It certainly didn't bother him in his match against Jarkko Nieminen, and I don't expect it should affect him much against Gulbis. The Latvian is another player who is capable of beating Roddick - of beating anybody, really - but he hasn't been at his best lately. Gulbis will have to play better tennis than he's played since the French Open, or hope that Roddick's serve isn't firing tomorrow. At least one of those things will have to happen for Ernie to hope to spoil the American's bid for another appearance at the year-end championships.
Roddick or Gulbis will probably be playing Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals, unless Stanislas Wawrinka can pull off an upset. The Swiss number two looked to be poised for a career resurgence at the U.S. Open, where he blew Andy Murray off the court, finished the campaign of the last American standing, and made his first career grand slam quarterfinal. Since then, he's gone 4-3, but he has lost to Federer, Nadal, and Monfils, so those were tough matches. But Wawrinka needs to end the season with another big win under his belt under the wing of new coach Peter Lundgren. Soderling might just be that scalp. That's going to be an interesting one.
Novak Djokovic has the unenviable task of playing one of the two remaining Frenchmen in Paris, as Michael Llodra upset John Isner, who was probably ready to end his season and pay attention to some NCAA football. Djokovic won this title last year, so he has a lot of points to defend, and has been playing solid tennis since the U.S. Open, since the only person he's lost to in that time was Roger Federer. Tough luck for Llodra, but this match could be an interesting preview of the second singles rubber at the Davis Cup final in a couple weeks. Both of these players will be looking to learn as much about their opponents as possible tomorrow, in preparation for that tie.
The last Round of 16 match is another interesting one. Tomas Berdych plays Nikolay Davydenko. Berdych is the higher-ranked player, but the question of who's in better form is really a race to the bottom. Berdych hasn't made a tournament semifinal since Wimbledon, and Davydenko hasn't made one since Rotterdam, back in February! But Davydenko owns the Czech in the head-to-head, winning 8 of their 9 matches, and his only loss came at Wimbledon, where Davydenko could lose to just about anybody. I don't know who to lean towards in this one, but if Berdych loses, he won't have much confidence heading into the year-end championships.
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Paris Masters Preview and Week 44 Look Back
We had a pair of hometown winners this week, as Roger Federer beat Novak Djokovic in Basel and David Ferrer beat surprise finalist and lucky loser Marcel Granollers in Valencia. Once the finals were set, those are the results we might have expected, but the semifinals had a couple of surprises.
The Roddick-Federer match in the semis looked like it would be an appetizing match-up, but unfortunately, Andy Roddick didn't really show up for the match. He played one of the poorest matches I've seen him play since he lost to Gilles Simon while suffering from mono this summer. He started the match serving at about 30%, and while he did improve that percentage as the match went on, his serve was never really on. And for Roddick, it's hard for him to win a match against anyone when that shot isn't working, and it's impossible for him to do it against Federer, even when Roger doesn't have to do anything special. That's really the worst possible result for Roddick - if he had lost but played a respectable match, he could take pride in that, but losing the match due to his own poor standard of play is not going to help build his confidence going into the last weeks of the season.
David Ferrer played Robin Soderling in the Valencia semis for the fifth time this year, and he won for the second time. That was a bit of a surprise, but Marcel Granollers' dismissal of Gilles Simon was more of a shock. Granollers had lost to Teymuraz Gabashvili in the qualifying draw, but got into the main tournament thanks to a withdrawal. He then won three matches against higher-ranked players and made it to the final.
As a result of the action this week, there weren't any major moves on the road to the finals in London. There's one week of regular action left, and here's how it stands. The likeliest outcome is that the current top 8 players will be the 8 who make it to the finals. The only way that Berdych (currently ranked 6th) doesn't make it is if either Youzhny or Verdasco wins the tournament and Roddick and Ferrer pass him, which would mean Roddick would have to make the semis and Ferrer would have to make at least the second round, while Berdych doesn't even win a match. The odds are good for Berdych.
Roddick and Ferrer are also in good shape, but they're not as sure bets. Melzer could bump Roddick if the Austrian wins the tournament and Roddick doesn't get any points, Youzhny would need to make the final, and Verdasco could do it by making the semis. Ferrer would need Verdasco to make the final or Youzhny to win. Considering Verdasco's form lately and Youzhny's back injury, I think the top 8 players are safe bets. Youzhny would need to get through Roddick and Verdasco would need to get through Gael Monfils and Andy Murray. Melzer would need to get through Ferrer and Federer, the winners of both of last week's tournaments. But two years ago, Tsonga needed to win the tournament to make the finals, and he played the second-best tournament of his life to do it. So anything can happen.
Looking at the other players involved in the BNP Paribas Masters. The most interesting thing is Nadal's withdrawal from the tournament - I think it may be because the Spaniard wants to make a better showing at the year-end tournament, where he has never performed well. That's one of the few remaining holes in his resume, so he may be skipping Paris to be fresher for London. Or he could really be on the verge of ending his season, which wouldn't shock me much either.
As a result, Federer is the top seed and favorite to win the tournament, since he's now on a nine match and two-tournament winning streak. As if that weren't enough, he has a pretty clear path to the semifinals. He opens against either Mahut or Gasquet, followed by Nicolas Almagro and then either Melzer or Ferrer. There's nobody in that quarter than can bother Federer, these days.
But his potential semifinal opponent, Andy Murray, has beaten him in two of their three meetings, this year. The Scot has an interesting draw, finding David Nalbandian or Marcel Granollers in his second-round match. Of course, he trounced Nalbandian earlier this year, so that may not be as exciting as it looks at first glance. After that, he could get either Cilic or one of two Ukrainian players. In the quarters, he'll probably have Verdasco or Monfils, who is now the top Frenchman in the tournament with Tsonga's injury-induced withdrawal.
The third quarter is an interesting one - Andy Roddick has the most to play for in the quarter, for sure. He'll open against either Xavier Malisse or a hot Jarkko Nieminen, and then he'll have either Gulbis or Youzhny, which is going to be a big match for two potential players in London. The other half of that quarter has Robin Soderling and Ivan Ljubicic, as well as Stan Wawrinka and Gilles Simon. You have to favor Soderling to come through, but there aren't really any weak spots there. Roddick has won both of their matches so far this year, so he can't be too upset about his draw.
Roddick also has to like that his most likely semifinal opponent is Novak Djokovic, against whom Roddick has played exceptionally well lately. Djokovic has another tough quarter, since it has Berdych, Isner, and Davydenko in it. In addition, Djokovic has to play either Monaco or Sam Querrey in his first round. Isner could open against Llodra - the pair played an epic match two weeks ago in Montpellier. The third round match between Berdych and Davydenko will be a big one for both players, assuming Davydenko can get past either Bellucci or Kohlschreiber.
There's still lots of action left in this last week of the regular season.
The Roddick-Federer match in the semis looked like it would be an appetizing match-up, but unfortunately, Andy Roddick didn't really show up for the match. He played one of the poorest matches I've seen him play since he lost to Gilles Simon while suffering from mono this summer. He started the match serving at about 30%, and while he did improve that percentage as the match went on, his serve was never really on. And for Roddick, it's hard for him to win a match against anyone when that shot isn't working, and it's impossible for him to do it against Federer, even when Roger doesn't have to do anything special. That's really the worst possible result for Roddick - if he had lost but played a respectable match, he could take pride in that, but losing the match due to his own poor standard of play is not going to help build his confidence going into the last weeks of the season.
David Ferrer played Robin Soderling in the Valencia semis for the fifth time this year, and he won for the second time. That was a bit of a surprise, but Marcel Granollers' dismissal of Gilles Simon was more of a shock. Granollers had lost to Teymuraz Gabashvili in the qualifying draw, but got into the main tournament thanks to a withdrawal. He then won three matches against higher-ranked players and made it to the final.
As a result of the action this week, there weren't any major moves on the road to the finals in London. There's one week of regular action left, and here's how it stands. The likeliest outcome is that the current top 8 players will be the 8 who make it to the finals. The only way that Berdych (currently ranked 6th) doesn't make it is if either Youzhny or Verdasco wins the tournament and Roddick and Ferrer pass him, which would mean Roddick would have to make the semis and Ferrer would have to make at least the second round, while Berdych doesn't even win a match. The odds are good for Berdych.
Roddick and Ferrer are also in good shape, but they're not as sure bets. Melzer could bump Roddick if the Austrian wins the tournament and Roddick doesn't get any points, Youzhny would need to make the final, and Verdasco could do it by making the semis. Ferrer would need Verdasco to make the final or Youzhny to win. Considering Verdasco's form lately and Youzhny's back injury, I think the top 8 players are safe bets. Youzhny would need to get through Roddick and Verdasco would need to get through Gael Monfils and Andy Murray. Melzer would need to get through Ferrer and Federer, the winners of both of last week's tournaments. But two years ago, Tsonga needed to win the tournament to make the finals, and he played the second-best tournament of his life to do it. So anything can happen.
Looking at the other players involved in the BNP Paribas Masters. The most interesting thing is Nadal's withdrawal from the tournament - I think it may be because the Spaniard wants to make a better showing at the year-end tournament, where he has never performed well. That's one of the few remaining holes in his resume, so he may be skipping Paris to be fresher for London. Or he could really be on the verge of ending his season, which wouldn't shock me much either.
As a result, Federer is the top seed and favorite to win the tournament, since he's now on a nine match and two-tournament winning streak. As if that weren't enough, he has a pretty clear path to the semifinals. He opens against either Mahut or Gasquet, followed by Nicolas Almagro and then either Melzer or Ferrer. There's nobody in that quarter than can bother Federer, these days.
But his potential semifinal opponent, Andy Murray, has beaten him in two of their three meetings, this year. The Scot has an interesting draw, finding David Nalbandian or Marcel Granollers in his second-round match. Of course, he trounced Nalbandian earlier this year, so that may not be as exciting as it looks at first glance. After that, he could get either Cilic or one of two Ukrainian players. In the quarters, he'll probably have Verdasco or Monfils, who is now the top Frenchman in the tournament with Tsonga's injury-induced withdrawal.
The third quarter is an interesting one - Andy Roddick has the most to play for in the quarter, for sure. He'll open against either Xavier Malisse or a hot Jarkko Nieminen, and then he'll have either Gulbis or Youzhny, which is going to be a big match for two potential players in London. The other half of that quarter has Robin Soderling and Ivan Ljubicic, as well as Stan Wawrinka and Gilles Simon. You have to favor Soderling to come through, but there aren't really any weak spots there. Roddick has won both of their matches so far this year, so he can't be too upset about his draw.
Roddick also has to like that his most likely semifinal opponent is Novak Djokovic, against whom Roddick has played exceptionally well lately. Djokovic has another tough quarter, since it has Berdych, Isner, and Davydenko in it. In addition, Djokovic has to play either Monaco or Sam Querrey in his first round. Isner could open against Llodra - the pair played an epic match two weeks ago in Montpellier. The third round match between Berdych and Davydenko will be a big one for both players, assuming Davydenko can get past either Bellucci or Kohlschreiber.
There's still lots of action left in this last week of the regular season.
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