Thursday, August 5, 2010

Washington Round of 16

The only reason I'm able to write about this round at the Legg Mason tennis championships is that a rain delay has prevented any action from taking place today, so we're in the same state we were in yesterday. I've been busy this week, so I'm glad for the chance to catch up.

Yesterday's action was fast and furious, and it was an absolute seed massacre. Five out of eight seeds dropped in Wednesday's action, two to retirements. Lleyton Hewitt couldn't finish his match against Alejandro Falla, and Ernests Gulbis called it quits against Ilya Marchenko. Stepanek, who was playing his first tournament back from injury, clearly wasn't at his best against Marco Chiudinelli. And Sam Querrey was almost certainly tired when he lost to Janko Tipsarevic this time around. On the other hand, I expect that Stan Wawrinka just got blasted off the court by Wildcard David Nalbandian, who has not played many tournaments this year, but has been the absolute boss at Davis Cup.

Berdych was nearly another casualty against Dmitry Tursunov, but he ran away with the third set. And recent first-time titlist Andrey Golubev had the easiest win for a seed against Kristof Vliegen. Marcos Baghdatis needed two tiebreaks to get through Horacio Zeballos, but he managed to pull through.

Seeds had done better on Tuesday, with only the Frenchman Benneteau and Llodra losing - the former to Xavier Malisse, and the latter to American qualifier Ryan Sweeting, who built on his win over James Blake in the first round. Fernando Verdasco saved a match point against German Michael Berrer, but he managed to win the match in a third-set tiebreak. As a result, we have some interesting match-ups waiting in the winds, whenever the rain decides to stop.

Berdych will play Golubev - this will be one of the first tests to see if Golubev, who played like a top-10 player to win the tournament in Hamburg, was just having a flukey week, or if he is ready to raise his game on a week-in, week-out basis. It'll be tough to get past Berdych, though. They're playing for the chance to face the winner of John Isner and Xavier Malisse, another tough match. Malisse is a tough customer who has been playing well, lately, but Isner has been tough to beat on hard courts this season. They played once already this year, with Malisse winning in three tiebreaks, but that was on clay. I like Isner in that one, but it should be tight.

Verdasco plays Sweeting, and this is another tricky match for Verdasco - Sweeting is a young American who has been playing well lately, and Hot Sauce was not at his best against Berrer. I have to expect Verdasco to come out in better form, but there's a chance of an upset here. Baghdatis has one of the easiest matches, against Marchenko, who advanced thanks to Gulbis's injury. I expect Baggy in the round of 16.

Tipsarevic gets Alejandro Falla as a reward for besting Sam Querrey, and Tipsy has just been playing too well the past ten days, I don't see Falla winning this one, unless Janko falls apart. They'll be playing for the chance to get the winner of one of the round's best matches: Mardy Fish, on an 11-match winning streak, plays Croatian Marin Cilic. I really don't know who to call this one for. Mardy has been playing like a completely different player this summer.

The last quarter has Nalbandian getting Marco Chiudinelli, which should be a breeze for the Argentine. Chiudinelli is just a different class of player - the winner will get either Andy Roddick or Gilles Simon. Roddick is 2-0 against the Frenchman, and Simon has not been at his best of late, but he has done well on this surface and in this situation, so it could be a tough match. And things only get better from there. It'll be interesting to see if they have to play double-duty tomorrow - in which case, the spectators are really going to be getting their money's worth.

Monday, August 2, 2010

Week 30 Wrap-up and Week 31 Preview

Well, three out of the four finals today actually turned out to be a bit of a let-down. Three straight set victories, in which the losing player was basically never in the match. I'll get to the thriller last.

Unfortunately, Richard Gasquet seemed to have some sort of an injury - I was watching a video feed with no commentator, so I'm not sure exactly what it was, but it was clear that Gasquet was not serving as well as he had been up to this point in the tournament. The Frenchman had been serving at about 55% and winning 70% of his first serve points up to now. In the final, though, those numbers were almost reversed - Gasquet served at 80% first serves and only won 56% of those points. Honestly, that's a sign of an injury - you don't suddenly start serving that weakly out of strategy. It's a shame, because there were some very good points, but Gasquet just couldn't keep up the level of play he needed.

In Umag, Ferrero was just too strong for his Italian opponent. Starace never had a break point against the former world number one. Ferrero only had one in each set, but that was all he needed. It was a good match, but not an exciting one.

The more star-studded of the women's final was something of a surprise - Victoria Azarenka won her first title since April last year, beating Sharapova thoroughly. The match would have been tighter, but I think Sharapova suffered from her late three-setter last night against Radwanska, and her three-setter the night before against Dementieva. She was tired, she hadn't played during the day, and she was facing an invigorated opponent. There were some stunning points, particularly in the first set, but not a lot of great serving - there were five breaks in the first set. Their games are similar, but the intangibles were with the Belarussian today. On another day, Sharapova could have easily taken the match.

The most exciting final today was definitely in Los Angeles - Sam Querrey lost the first set in a dispiriting fashion, double-faulting on break and set point after having held a one-break lead earlier in the set. He could have easily gone away, playing a higher-ranked, more experienced player who he had never even managed a single set against in four previous meetings. But Sam had already escaped defeat in his previous two matches, so he was playing with house money. Querrey upped his level of play significantly, smacking unbelievable winners that even Murray couldn't run down consistently. He didn't get frustrated by everything that the Scot was getting back, and he played well within himself.

That almost wasn't enough. Murray had another break and set point in the second set, but Querrey saved that, then ran away with the tiebreak. He really outplayed the world number four at that stage of the match, and he took the momentum and ran away with it. He kept his cool and went up a break in the third, served supremely well, and closed out the match. This is huge win for Querrey, who does not have a great record against the players at the top tier of the game. It may not have been on the biggest stage, but this was an excellent win. On the other hand, this is a bad sign for Andy Murray, who has still not won a title this year. He's losing almost 1400 points this month from his strong performances at last year's Summer hard court Masters events. He's not playing at that form this year, and he could drop out of the top four for the first time in a long while. I don't know if he's still hungover from that Aussie Open loss in the final or what, but we haven't seen classic Andy Murray since that tournament in 2010.

Looking ahead, after a week of so many tournaments taking place, it will be nice to be able to focus on one bigger event: the Legg Mason tennis championships in Washington, D.C. This will be an interesting event, because more of the top players are starting to come out of the post-Wimbledon woodwork, and the second European clay court season is finally over, so those players are crossing the Atlantic and joining the pre-U.S. Open party.

The top seed in Washington is Tomas Berdych, who hasn't played since the Wimbledon final. Considering his lack of match play, can't really be considered the favorite here, especially not with such a strong field. While two-time defending champ Juan Martin Del Potro can't defend his title, Andy Roddick is here, who won in 2007, when he beat John Isner. This was Isner's break-out tournament, and see how far he's come since then.

Sam Querrey is also here, and if he's not jaded after playing four three-set matches in as many days last week, can have a strong week. Mardy Fish is also back, after taking last week off, still riding a ten match winning streak. And while James Blake may have been unable to get over the hump against Feliciano Lopez last week, he still played as well as he has since January. That's a lot of strong Americans in the field.

And in addition to the home-town boys, Verdasco and Cilic are also in action, as are Baghdatis and Gulbis. Former champions Lleyton Hewitt and Arnaud Clement are also here. Radek Stepanek is getting back into action, after a long injury layoff, and the surprise winner in Hamburg, Andrey Golubev, is the 16th seed. Two wildcards also went to David Nalbandian and Richard Gasquet. And one of my favorite up-and-coming players, Kei Nishikori, made it through qualifying. Plenty of space for fireworks this week.

The best opening-round matches are between last week's almost semifinalist Janko Tipsarevic and Arnaud Clement, a former champion here. And they're playing for the privilege of getting Sam Querrey in the second round! Also look for James Blake against U.S. qualifier Ryan Sweeting, who has a good career ahead of him. Dmitry Tursonov, who has been having a really rough year, plays Roddick's conqueror at the French Open, Teymuraz Gabashvili. David Nalbandian plays Rajeev Ram, and Yen-Hsun Lu (Roddick's conqueror at Wimbledon) plays Alejandro Falla. Those are some pretty good first-rounds.

I have a busy week ahead of me, with some travel, so I won't be able to focus on the tennis as much as I would like, which is a shame. But I'll try to catch and write about what I can.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Week 30 Finals

There was a lot of interesting action today. The semifinals definitely lived up to their billing, in almost all of the tournaments taking place today. At least one match at each event went three sets, and only the women's tournament in Stanford didn't feature a tiebreak. It's always nice when things fall in such a way that these later stages of a tournament are as exciting as they really ought to be.

In Umag, two Italians had a chance at making it to the final, but only one of them was up to the task. Juan Ignacio Chela apparently was unable to follow up the win over Nikolay Davydenko, and he fell to Potito Starace. Andreas Seppi couldn't muster his compatriots form, and he was essentially blitzed by an on-fire Juan Carlos Ferrero in the other semi. I expect that Ferrero will be too strong for Starace tomorrow. This is probably the least exciting final going on tomorrow, in my estimation, but as it is a meeting between two very talented and accomplished clay-courters. Unfortunately, Ferrero has a 5-1 record against the Italian, and is the prohibitive favorite to win the match.

The other clay-court final taking place tomorrow is between Richard Gasquet and Nicolas Almagro, and this may just be the match on offer. They've played once already this year, where Almagro won 9-7 in a third set tiebreak. That's a tough standard to live up to, but the match has the potential to be a barn-burner. Gasquet has more talent than his Spanish opponent, but he hasn't been playing as well this past year - Almagro is nearing his career high ranking, while Gasquet, is well outside the realm of being seeded for the U.S. Open. Since he peaked in the top ten, that's quite a drop. Gasquet has the touch, but Almagro has the power. This will really depend on who is on tomorrow - if Gasquet can make the tough shots that he likes to go for, then he has to be the favorite. If Almagro can hit through the ball the way he likes to and still find the court, it will be tough for Gasquet to do anything. If they're both on, then it will be a lot of fun. Here's hoping for a good match, in this one.

Strangely enough, Los Angeles is the only place where the top seed made it to the final. Even though a Murray-Querrey match-up looks like a walk in the park for the Brit, it may not be. Both players have seen significant lapses in their levels of play during their last few matches, with Querrey on the brink of elimination in both his semi and quarterfinal matches. He even saved a match point today against Tipsarevic. Querrey has yet to beat his opponent in tomorrow's final, losing all four of their previous matches. But their match at this year's Wimbledon was closer than the scoreline indicates. It's also interesting to note their difference in form this year - since reaching the Aussie Open final, Murray hadn't even made another final until this week, while Sam Querrey has won three titles this year on three different surfaces. If Sam manages to win this match, it will be a big indication that he's ready to rise to the next step and really challenge the game's top players. Really, everyone expects Murray to win this match - last year in the final, Sam barely squeaked by against Carsten Ball. His opposition this year is significantly tougher. Murray will hopefully be encouraged if he can finally get over the hump and win his first title of the year - if he doesn't win, then it could be an indication of some trouble ahead, for his position in the top five.

It's also worth noting that the women's semifinals today were both excellent, with Victoria Azarenka demolishing Sam Stosur (and on her 21st birthday, no less!) while Maria Sharapova followed up a big win over Elena Dementieva in the quarters to beat third-seeded Aggie Radwanska, despite a sluggish start. By the end of it, Sharapova was brutally slugging the ball from all over the court, and there wasn't much for Radwanska to do. Both matches were very high quality affairs, and tomorrow's final could be a thriller. Sharapova leads their head to head 2-1, but Azarenka put on the stronger performance in her semifinal.

Basically, if you're a tennis fan, there's a lot to be excited about tomorrow. And this is with the majority of the game's top players out of action for a while, yet! Imagine how things will be going once we get into the more intense parts of the U.S. Open warm-ups.