The finals have been set for the Shanghai Masters, and it's an exciting match. I must admit that - for the most part - this tournament has been something of a bust, as a majority of the highly-anticipated match-ups either failed to happen or fizzled out when they did. Even the Djokovic-Federer semifinal, a rematch of that astounding match from the U.S. Open, failed to provide much excitement. Here's hoping that the final will be a good match - it certainly has the pedigree for it.
The record between Federer and Murray should be familiar to most tennis fans. Murray is one of the very few players who has a winning record against Roger, though it's getting tighter. Before the summer hardcourt swing, Federer had won the last three times they'd met. That was when Murray beat Federer in the Toronto Masters final. At the moment, their record stands with Murray ahead 7-5.
Coming into the final, neither player has lost a set this week. Murray hasn't even been closer than 6-4, while Federer has at least gone 7-5 in the first set against Djokovic. On the other hand, the Swiss master has faced a significantly higher caliber of opponent than Murray had to get through to make it here. He had to beat John Isner, Robin Soderling, and Novak Djokovic, while Murray's toughest test was JW Tsonga, who looked to be troubled by a lingering injury. What isn't clear, though, is how their different paths will affect the result.
It's possible that Murray, who has been able to cruise straight through to the final, will be fresh and ready to face Federer. Roger's game shouldn't be a surprise to him anymore, after twelve previous encounters. On the other hand, the fact that he hasn't faced anyone who could give him a challenge up to this point might work against him, as the sudden rise in the quality of tennis he'll be up against could be difficult to adjust to.
Based purely on form, it's tough to bet against Federer, but Andy Murray is one of the best players on tour when it comes to frustrating an opponent, and he's beaten Federer in a grand slam final already this year. I'm looking forward to see how this turns out - it's not the most significant match of the year, but it's a big one for Federer, who says he can still dominate the tour the way he has in the past, and if he can tear through the field here in Shanghai, I'm pretty much inclined to believe him.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Friday, October 15, 2010
Shanghai Masters Quarterfinals
Surprisingly, this week in Shanghai has not really turned out to be about the World Tour Finals contenders - the majority of them have come out playing pretty atrocious tennis, at a time when they need to bring their A games. Almagro, Cilic, Youzhny, and Verdasco failed to win a match this week. Berdych won only one before he was upset by Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (who is on a real tear, by the way) who Andy Roddick was dominating before the American aggravated an injury to his thigh muscle. For the record, this is Roddick's third trip to Shanghai, and he's been injured in all three trips. The prior two ended his season, but he's hoping that he'll be able to come back and still qualify for the year-end championships in London. For what it's worth, Roddick was playing really good tennis in this Asian swing before he got injured.
The two players who are showing up for the Shanghai Masters are Jurgen Melzer, who got the biggest win of his career in an upset of Nadal yesterday, and JW Tsonga, who is playing just his second tournament back since Wimbledon, but is through to the quarters all the same. Both guys need deep runs here to bolster their odds of making it to London, and while Tsonga has his work cut out for him - he faces Andy Murray tonight - Melzer should see his way through the semis, as he'll be happy to find himself facing Juan Monaco instead of Davydenko or Verdasco. All credit to Melzer for his victory, but the fact is if you want to beat Nadal, it's best to get him on a hard court, late in the season.
I like Murray against Tsonga, as the Scot has owned the Frenchman recently, and Tsonga is still shaking the rust off. JW's lone win against Murray was in the first round of the Aussie open when he made his shocking run to the final, and he hasn't really had that kind of form recently. It should be a fun match though, and since it's the first one on, I'll probably stay up to watch it.
The other exciting match-up is another round in the Federer-Soderling battle. But come on, Federer is still 13-1 against the Swede, and that one loss almost went the other way. I like Federer to get through to the semis here, as well. If it's raining and they have to close the roof, that could help Soderling, as the wind can mess with his toss and big groundstrokes. But even with that much help, it shouldn't make a difference.
The other two quarterfinals feature some surprising contenders - Jurgen Melzer and Juan Monaco, which could go either way but ought to go Melzer's way, as the in-form player. In the other quarter, Novak Djokovic faces Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who is playing the best tennis of his career, but his run will end against Novak tonight.
The two players who are showing up for the Shanghai Masters are Jurgen Melzer, who got the biggest win of his career in an upset of Nadal yesterday, and JW Tsonga, who is playing just his second tournament back since Wimbledon, but is through to the quarters all the same. Both guys need deep runs here to bolster their odds of making it to London, and while Tsonga has his work cut out for him - he faces Andy Murray tonight - Melzer should see his way through the semis, as he'll be happy to find himself facing Juan Monaco instead of Davydenko or Verdasco. All credit to Melzer for his victory, but the fact is if you want to beat Nadal, it's best to get him on a hard court, late in the season.
I like Murray against Tsonga, as the Scot has owned the Frenchman recently, and Tsonga is still shaking the rust off. JW's lone win against Murray was in the first round of the Aussie open when he made his shocking run to the final, and he hasn't really had that kind of form recently. It should be a fun match though, and since it's the first one on, I'll probably stay up to watch it.
The other exciting match-up is another round in the Federer-Soderling battle. But come on, Federer is still 13-1 against the Swede, and that one loss almost went the other way. I like Federer to get through to the semis here, as well. If it's raining and they have to close the roof, that could help Soderling, as the wind can mess with his toss and big groundstrokes. But even with that much help, it shouldn't make a difference.
The other two quarterfinals feature some surprising contenders - Jurgen Melzer and Juan Monaco, which could go either way but ought to go Melzer's way, as the in-form player. In the other quarter, Novak Djokovic faces Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who is playing the best tennis of his career, but his run will end against Novak tonight.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Week 40 Wrap-up and Shangai Masters Preview
Even though we're through with play on Sunday, the action from week 40 is not quite finished. The final in Tokyo has concluded as one might have expected, with Nadal just too strong for Monfils, but in Beijing, rain has kept Djokovic and Ferrer from playing out their match. Djokovic is already up a break by the fourth game, though, so when play resumes on Monday, it seems like he'll have the advantage.
It wasn't the most exciting week for this pair of Asian ATP 500 events, but there were some absolutely amazing matches. Roddick-Monfils and Nadal-Troicki were two of the best, most exciting matches that I've seen for the last few months. This was a good week for Troicki, who has a fair amount of talent but hasn't really broken through with any big wins. He almost had a career-changing victory over Nadal, but he couldn't quite pull it off. He had already beaten Melzer in a third-set tiebreak in the previous round, so here's hoping he can continue playing that way and build off a very strong week, even if he did completely choke when he had the match on his racket.
The week in Beijing wasn't quite as exciting, but it was surprising to see the second, third, and fourth seeds put up weak efforts in their quarterfinal losses. Murray, Soderling, and Davydenko all failed to win a set in that round. Good show from Djokovic and Ferrer, but all of those other guys are still trying to qualify for the end-of-year championships, and the opportunities to wrap up those points are getting scarcer.
Next week in Shanghai, trying to rack up points in order to qualify for London will be the focus, for a lot of these players. It's really late in the season for only three of the eight spots to be wrapped up - Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer are all in, which isn't a shock. Murray and Soderling are in very good shape, with Berdych in a moderately safe position, while Roddick and Verdasco are currently in the 7th and 8th spots, but are in no way secure in their spots. One or both of them will probably even drop this week, as Ferrer was sitting in 9th, but getting to the final in Beijing (at least, maybe even winning) will help his chances immensely.
One of the players with a chance of qualifying for the year-end championships is already out of Shanghai, as Nicolas Almagro fell in a Sunday first-round match to Alexandr Dolgopolov - it was another third set tiebreak, which is a fine way to start off the week. I'll take a look at what other action you can expect as I usually do, going quarter by quarter.
Nadal, as the top seed and recent champion in Tokyo, isn't going to have it easy this week. He gets a bye in the first round, but then he'll have to face either Gilles Simon or Stan Wawrinka, who is playing his first ATP tournament since the U.S. Open, where he played some incredible tennis but wore himself out in the process. We'll see if he can continue his great under new coach Peter Lundgren. And after that, he'll have either Jurgen Melzer, Mardy Fish, or Denis Istomin. The other half of Nadal's quarter is not quite so loaded - Davydenko could potentiall be challenged by Sergiy Stakhovsky, but I'll be shocked if Verdasco doesn't get through de Bakker and Monaco, which will help his London push. Verdasco-Davydenko should be a good match, if both get that far, and then the winner will get Nadal (or his conqueror) in the quarters.
The second quarter belongs to Andy Murray, who has not been on a great run since he won one of the Summer hardcourt Masters titles. He'll probably open against Radek Stepanek in the second round, and then he gets either Chardy, Baghdatis, or Dolgopolov. He doesn't need to win the tournament to secure his place in London - he just needs to win a couple rounds here, and I'll be shocked if he doesn't. The bottom half of his quarter has Mikhail Youzhny, as well as Sam Querrey and Michael Berrer (which isn't a bad first-round match) but the real wildcard is JW Tsonga, back from an injury layoff, who opens against Feliciano Lopez. Murray's going to have to really slump to not come through this section, though.
The third quarter is third-seed Roger Federer's (I know, can you believe it?) and his half is pretty easy, with one potential exception. It's likely that Fed's first round match will be against John Isner, and without any match play to get used to the conditions, that could be a tough one. Isner would have to play (and serve) at his absolute max to make it a match, but it's an outside possibility. Beyond that, I don't see Seppi, Yen-Hsun Lu, or a slumping Marin Cilic giving him any trouble. The other half of his section is a a bit tougher, though. Robin Soderling is there, and he'll open against either Tipsarevic or Golubev. Ferrer beat Soderling last week, and he's in this section, but with almost no rest between tournaments, it's going to be a tough ask to play Djokovic in a final today and (in all likelihood) Llodra in a first round tomorrow, in an entirely different city.
The last quarter is Djokovic's, but he's going to be in a similar situation to Ferrer, if not quite as bad, since he has a first-round bye. He'll probably open against Ljubicic, and that could be a tricky match, but it probably won't be if you were looking at the Croat's recent form. Djoker's section has one of the best first-rounders, between Richard Gasquet and Ernests Gulbis - call it "the battle of wasted talent." The winner of that one will most likely get Monfils, and then that winner gets Djokovic. That's pretty exciting, but I think the other half of this section is even better. Roddick and Berdych are the seeds, and both are vying for places in the year-end championships. Roddick opens against Kohlschreiber, then gets a relatively easy match against either Schwank or Garcia-Lopez, and neither of them are at their best on hard-courts, but then Roddick and Berdych will face off, assuming Berdych can beat Robredo (he probably can). That will be an essential match for both of these players' end-of-year fortunes.
There was a lull after the U.S. Open, but things are starting to heat up again, and this is the most exciting end-of-year championship qualifying season that I can recall. Usually, there are only two or at most three spots left to determine at this point in the season, not five. Plenty of players with a lot to gain (and lose) in this week's action.
It wasn't the most exciting week for this pair of Asian ATP 500 events, but there were some absolutely amazing matches. Roddick-Monfils and Nadal-Troicki were two of the best, most exciting matches that I've seen for the last few months. This was a good week for Troicki, who has a fair amount of talent but hasn't really broken through with any big wins. He almost had a career-changing victory over Nadal, but he couldn't quite pull it off. He had already beaten Melzer in a third-set tiebreak in the previous round, so here's hoping he can continue playing that way and build off a very strong week, even if he did completely choke when he had the match on his racket.
The week in Beijing wasn't quite as exciting, but it was surprising to see the second, third, and fourth seeds put up weak efforts in their quarterfinal losses. Murray, Soderling, and Davydenko all failed to win a set in that round. Good show from Djokovic and Ferrer, but all of those other guys are still trying to qualify for the end-of-year championships, and the opportunities to wrap up those points are getting scarcer.
Next week in Shanghai, trying to rack up points in order to qualify for London will be the focus, for a lot of these players. It's really late in the season for only three of the eight spots to be wrapped up - Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer are all in, which isn't a shock. Murray and Soderling are in very good shape, with Berdych in a moderately safe position, while Roddick and Verdasco are currently in the 7th and 8th spots, but are in no way secure in their spots. One or both of them will probably even drop this week, as Ferrer was sitting in 9th, but getting to the final in Beijing (at least, maybe even winning) will help his chances immensely.
One of the players with a chance of qualifying for the year-end championships is already out of Shanghai, as Nicolas Almagro fell in a Sunday first-round match to Alexandr Dolgopolov - it was another third set tiebreak, which is a fine way to start off the week. I'll take a look at what other action you can expect as I usually do, going quarter by quarter.
Nadal, as the top seed and recent champion in Tokyo, isn't going to have it easy this week. He gets a bye in the first round, but then he'll have to face either Gilles Simon or Stan Wawrinka, who is playing his first ATP tournament since the U.S. Open, where he played some incredible tennis but wore himself out in the process. We'll see if he can continue his great under new coach Peter Lundgren. And after that, he'll have either Jurgen Melzer, Mardy Fish, or Denis Istomin. The other half of Nadal's quarter is not quite so loaded - Davydenko could potentiall be challenged by Sergiy Stakhovsky, but I'll be shocked if Verdasco doesn't get through de Bakker and Monaco, which will help his London push. Verdasco-Davydenko should be a good match, if both get that far, and then the winner will get Nadal (or his conqueror) in the quarters.
The second quarter belongs to Andy Murray, who has not been on a great run since he won one of the Summer hardcourt Masters titles. He'll probably open against Radek Stepanek in the second round, and then he gets either Chardy, Baghdatis, or Dolgopolov. He doesn't need to win the tournament to secure his place in London - he just needs to win a couple rounds here, and I'll be shocked if he doesn't. The bottom half of his quarter has Mikhail Youzhny, as well as Sam Querrey and Michael Berrer (which isn't a bad first-round match) but the real wildcard is JW Tsonga, back from an injury layoff, who opens against Feliciano Lopez. Murray's going to have to really slump to not come through this section, though.
The third quarter is third-seed Roger Federer's (I know, can you believe it?) and his half is pretty easy, with one potential exception. It's likely that Fed's first round match will be against John Isner, and without any match play to get used to the conditions, that could be a tough one. Isner would have to play (and serve) at his absolute max to make it a match, but it's an outside possibility. Beyond that, I don't see Seppi, Yen-Hsun Lu, or a slumping Marin Cilic giving him any trouble. The other half of his section is a a bit tougher, though. Robin Soderling is there, and he'll open against either Tipsarevic or Golubev. Ferrer beat Soderling last week, and he's in this section, but with almost no rest between tournaments, it's going to be a tough ask to play Djokovic in a final today and (in all likelihood) Llodra in a first round tomorrow, in an entirely different city.
The last quarter is Djokovic's, but he's going to be in a similar situation to Ferrer, if not quite as bad, since he has a first-round bye. He'll probably open against Ljubicic, and that could be a tricky match, but it probably won't be if you were looking at the Croat's recent form. Djoker's section has one of the best first-rounders, between Richard Gasquet and Ernests Gulbis - call it "the battle of wasted talent." The winner of that one will most likely get Monfils, and then that winner gets Djokovic. That's pretty exciting, but I think the other half of this section is even better. Roddick and Berdych are the seeds, and both are vying for places in the year-end championships. Roddick opens against Kohlschreiber, then gets a relatively easy match against either Schwank or Garcia-Lopez, and neither of them are at their best on hard-courts, but then Roddick and Berdych will face off, assuming Berdych can beat Robredo (he probably can). That will be an essential match for both of these players' end-of-year fortunes.
There was a lull after the U.S. Open, but things are starting to heat up again, and this is the most exciting end-of-year championship qualifying season that I can recall. Usually, there are only two or at most three spots left to determine at this point in the season, not five. Plenty of players with a lot to gain (and lose) in this week's action.
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