Saturday, October 16, 2010

Shanghai Masters Final

The finals have been set for the Shanghai Masters, and it's an exciting match. I must admit that - for the most part - this tournament has been something of a bust, as a majority of the highly-anticipated match-ups either failed to happen or fizzled out when they did. Even the Djokovic-Federer semifinal, a rematch of that astounding match from the U.S. Open, failed to provide much excitement. Here's hoping that the final will be a good match - it certainly has the pedigree for it.

The record between Federer and Murray should be familiar to most tennis fans. Murray is one of the very few players who has a winning record against Roger, though it's getting tighter. Before the summer hardcourt swing, Federer had won the last three times they'd met. That was when Murray beat Federer in the Toronto Masters final. At the moment, their record stands with Murray ahead 7-5.

Coming into the final, neither player has lost a set this week. Murray hasn't even been closer than 6-4, while Federer has at least gone 7-5 in the first set against Djokovic. On the other hand, the Swiss master has faced a significantly higher caliber of opponent than Murray had to get through to make it here. He had to beat John Isner, Robin Soderling, and Novak Djokovic, while Murray's toughest test was JW Tsonga, who looked to be troubled by a lingering injury. What isn't clear, though, is how their different paths will affect the result.

It's possible that Murray, who has been able to cruise straight through to the final, will be fresh and ready to face Federer. Roger's game shouldn't be a surprise to him anymore, after twelve previous encounters. On the other hand, the fact that he hasn't faced anyone who could give him a challenge up to this point might work against him, as the sudden rise in the quality of tennis he'll be up against could be difficult to adjust to.

Based purely on form, it's tough to bet against Federer, but Andy Murray is one of the best players on tour when it comes to frustrating an opponent, and he's beaten Federer in a grand slam final already this year. I'm looking forward to see how this turns out - it's not the most significant match of the year, but it's a big one for Federer, who says he can still dominate the tour the way he has in the past, and if he can tear through the field here in Shanghai, I'm pretty much inclined to believe him.