Saturday, July 3, 2010

Wimbledon Day 11

The men's semifinals are complete. Despite being two straight sets victories for the apparent favorites, they were fairly compelling matches, I have to say. Both featured one-break differences in the first and third sets, and very tight tiebreaks in the second. In general, the level of play from all four players was high, but ultimately, the two winners were able to perform more consistently and raise their games at the necessary moments.

Djokovic and Berdych both played some excellent points, but ultimately the biggest difference came down to serving acumen, and the tall Czech player was significantly stronger in this aspect of the game. Djokovic served too many double-faults, and he served them at crucial points in the match - on set point in the second set tiebreak and then at break point to allow Berdych to serve for the match in the third. This was despite some scintillating play to save (or allow Berdych to lose) four set points during that tiebreak. Ultimately, Djokovic has not played enough big matches of late, and this was the biggest one he had played in a very long time, while Berdych has become the surprise big-match player of the year.

The other semi was more hotly contested, though the scoreline is nearly identical. Murray had tens of thousands of his countrymen cheering him on, but that was not enough to get him past the lightning quick movement and bludgeoning forehand of Rafael Nadal. There were several moments in the match where Murray almost made that kind of stunning, game-changing shot that turned the tides of his matches against John Isner and Marin Cilic at the U.S. Open - highlight reel stuff that pumps him up and demoralizes his opponent. But at every instance, Nadal was ready and waiting to return one amazing near-winner with a slightly better reply.

Nadal looked the best he's looked all tournament, skipping around the court so quickly and lightly that it's easy to forget he was slogging his way through the French Open just a month ago, knee-deep in red clay. His forehand was unbelievable - he unleashed on a few shots that, to borrow a phrase from another sport, nearly "tore the cover off the ball." Despite the fact that he's going up against one of the bigger hitters on tour in the final, I find it unlikely that Berdych is going to be able to out-hit Nadal, if he plays this way.

As for tomorrow's women's final, Serena Williams is the clear favorite. No matter how different Zvonareva has looked this week, no matter how stunning her performance in her run to the final, it's nearly impossible to beat Serena in a grand slam final. Maria Sharapova has done it once and her own sister has done it twice, but that's it. Zvonareva's run to the final has been a combination of some mysterious force or event settling her brain, along with a draw that opened up for her at the right points, and some really excellent play when it was required. But I don't know if that will be enough to get her past Serena Williams.

The most dangerous thing for Serena is to assume that is already true, though. Zvonareva's best chance is to surprise the defending champion, catch her off-guard, and hopefully send her reeling long enough to land the knock-out blow. Zvonareva will have to play the match of her life, and Serena will have to be a little bit off her game, for the Russian to manage the upset. It's definitely unlikely, but I wouldn't say it's beyond the realm of possibility. We'll see what happens.

Friday, July 2, 2010

Wimbledon Days 9 and 10

We're all set for the women's final. I think if you had been told a few weeks ago that a Russian was going to make it to the final at Wimbledon, your list would probably have included Dementieva, Safina, Kuznetsova, maybe Petrova or Kleybanova, maybe even Kirilenko. But Zvonareva looked like she was on the road to total mental breakdown - I was on-site when I saw her play her match at the U.S. Open last year against Flavia Pennetta, where she completely broke down, started bawling on court, and tried to remove her knee wrappings. After that, it was hard to imagine her keeping herself together for a run like this one.

But she's played very well, in upsetting Kim Clijsters and then facing an in-form Bulgarian Pironkova. I was very impressed with her performance, I have to say. She served well and kept her errors to a minimum. Her play was pretty much unrecognizable from the time I watched her on center court nine months ago. She even upset the Williams sisters in doubles this week, as part of the first team to beat the Williams sisters in more than a year. This could be her week - but having to face Serena in the final is no easy task. I'll have more to say about that tomorrow.

The men's semifinals will take place tomorrow, and just like in the quarterfinals, there is one name missing. One side features Nadal and Murray, who both overcome less than ideal starts (though Nadal's was much slower) to beat their quarterfinal opponents in four sets. That's what everyone expected heading into the tournament. And on the other side, Djokovic is in the quarterfinals, which was essentially a guarantee as soon as he beat Hewitt and Roddick flamed out. But facing him, rather than defending champion and seven-time defending finalist Roger Federer, we have the big Czech phenom, Tomas Berdych!

That was an amazing match, honestly. The quarterfinals were generally good (none were classics, but all were interesting in their own way) but Berdych's display was unlike anything I'd ever seen from the big man. At least, it was unlike anything I'd seen from him before in that he maintained his amazing level of play until he had sealed the deal. Before, I've seen him play that well, only to collapse and give it away (see Australian Open 2008). This time Berdych managed to keep up his stellar level of play even when it looked like he might fade away. It wasn't like the match he played against Federer earlier in the year, which Federer essentially gave away with errors and shanked forehands. Berdych played well enough to take this match from the former world number one, who will - shockingly - drop to number three next week.

As for tomorrow's match-ups, Djokovic has not played especially well this fortnight, and has found himself in the semifinals thanks to some intermittent good point and an undeniably favorable draw. He took full advantage of meeting Yen-Hsun Lu in the quarterfinals, dispatching of him easily, but is that the best preparation for a player who just upset Roger Federer? Djokovic is 2-0 against Berdych, but it's hard to say that's enough to really predict the winner of tomorrow's match. Berdych is almost the favorite to win it, at this point. It should be interesting to see if Berdych can keep rolling, or if Djokovic will find his game and make his first Grand Slam final since winning the Australian Open in 2008.

But Nadal-Murray, now that's a tough one to pick. Andy Murray's progress at Wimbledon has been interesting. He's played four times, and each time, he made it a round further. In 2008, he made the quarterfinals after winning a stunning comeback against Richard Gasquet in the 4th round. At that point, he was clearly exhausted and lost to Nadal. They also played at the Australian Open the year before, where Nadal won a long, grinding match, which Murray only lost on fitness, not talent. This year, at the Australian Open, it went the other way, as Nadal's knees gave out on him and Murray made it through.

These two have quite a history, as you can tell, and whichever one of them wins in the semifinals will be the favorite to win the tournament. Nadal, though he may not be 100% fit, just dominated the French Open and still hasn't lost a match here since 2007. In fact, he hasn't lost to anyone not named Federer at Wimbledon since 2005. I'm really excited about this match - can Nadal make the final again, all but sealing his place as World Number One at the end of the year, or will Murray fulfill the British hopes and make it to the final, something that Tim Henman could never do?

There are so many storylines converging in this one match, so many angles - and it's worth noting that these are two stellar tennis players, both at or very near the height of their power. It should be a lot of fun to watch. Here's hoping for a pair of good matches and that no one gets hurt.

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Wimbledon Day 8

The women's quarterfinals were completed today, and there were two pretty shocking upsets. Former champion Venus Williams lost to Bulgarian Tsvetana Pironkova, who had previously won a single match at Wimbledon in four tries. She's now into the semis, where she'll face Vera Zvonareva, who beat Kim Clijsters in another shocking result. Serena's victory over Na Li was pretty straightforward, and her opponent in the semis will be Petra Kvitova. Of the four players remaining in the women's draw, one of them has made it to a grand slam final (Serena) one of the others has made it past the fourth round at a grand slam before (Zvonareva).

At this point, if Serena doesn't take this title, it will be an incredible disappointment. It would always have been the case, but let's be honest here, the players that are left - they're sort of scrubs. I'll be shocked if Serena loses a set in the last two rounds, honestly. Really disappointing for Clijsters and Venus, who were slated to meet in the semis. And it's a shame for the promoters, too - who's going to be beating down the gates to get to the Pironkova_Zvonareva semifinal?

As for the men, the quarterfinals are up tomorrow and we're one player short of having all the top dogs there. The world's top four are present, and they're each facing a tough opponent - with one exception.

Federer takes on Tomas Berdych, who beat Fed at the Olympics in 2004 and this year at Miami, but otherwise has not won a match. He nearly had him at the Australian Open a few years, but duffed an easy volley at break point in the third set, and then was never in the match again. Berdych is finally getting himself together in order to play up to his potential at slams, with a recent semifinal run at the French. It will be a huge shock if he upsets Federer, since Fed, once he struggled through his first few rounds, seem to be back on his feet.

Rafael Nadal gets Robin Soderling, once again. This will be very interesting, as the pair had a very contentious Wimbledon match a few years ago, which - as you may recall - ended with some bad blood between the players. Of course, their recent rivalry is much more interesting, but no matter how soundly Soderling thwacked Nadal at the French last year, Nadal's victory this year in the final was much more emphatic. If it hadn't been for that match against Ferrer, I'd give Robin a chance, but in their last rounds, Nadal looked to be the better player, with Soderling's level of player going up and down - and in his bad patches, he looked really bad. As long as Nadal's knees hold up, and Soderling has a lapse or two or doesn't reach his highest level, then Nadal will come out the victor.

The third quarterfinal is Andy Murray against JW Tsonga, which could be interesting, but probably won't be. Tsonga beat Murray in a thrilling match in the first round of the Australian Open in 2008, the start of his run to the final, but really, Tsonga has not been able to play at that level since that tournament. Murray is the more solid and has looked better this week. Tsonga will have to find some special magic to win this one.

The final quarterfinal, which should have been Novak Djokovic against Andy Roddick instead features... Yun-Tsun Lu? Not much to say, here. Lu's dream run ends at the quarterfinals. There's no way Djokovic is going to make the same mistake that Roddick did, simple as that.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Wimbledon Day 7

At super monday, even though the schedule was stellar, the tennis didn't quite live up to the bar set by the first week. There were some ugly matches today, and - unfortunately - the good ones didn't last very long.

The biggest stories of the day were the dual departures of the two sentimental favorites: Justine Henin lost to countrywoman Kim Clijsters for the third time this year and the first time in a slam since 2002, if I'm not mistaken. That was a pretty ugly match, as Kim came out and couldn't find the court, then once she got up a set, it was Henin's turn to crack under pressure.

The level of play was slightly better in Andy Roddick's debacle of a match against Yen-Hsun Lu, but the tactics were way worse. Roddick lost this match the same he's lost almost all of the nail-biter big matches in his career - by being passive and hoping his lower-ranked, less-experienced opponent would blink. Unfortunately for him, it was Roddick who blinked. He lost two out of three tiebreaks. Even though he was only broken once in the entire match, it was enough for him to lose, just like in last year's final. This is really a chilling loss for Andy - he's never lost to somebody ranked as low as Lu at Wimbledon, in his entire career. And if that wasn't enough, since Roddick made the semis last year, he loses 1020 points from last year's result. If Tsonga and Berdych make it another round or two, he could end up number eleven in the rankings next week. Ouch.

Other than that, things were not especially exciting. Serena Williams beat Sharapova in a really high-quality match, but it didn't last long enough. Soderling beat Ferrer in an ugly, up-and-down affair that neither player seemed eager to close out. Sam Querrey was with Andy Murray for one set, but after not be able to capitalize on his chances, Murray ran away with it. Jankovic retired with injury and Wozniacki might as well have, losing 2 and love. Nadal and Federer each dropped just eight games. And even though Djokovic managed to beat Lleyton Hewitt, he was having some breathing problems on the way, and that didn't bode well for his chances.

The women's quarterfinals take place tomorrow, where Kim Clijsters plays Vera Zvonareva, Serena Williams plays Na Li, and Venus Williams plays Pironkova. The fourth match, I'm sorry to say, is not really of particular consequence. But I expect the Williams sisters and Clijsters to come through to the semis - Kim may have the chance to do what she did last year at the U.S. Open, which was beat both the Williams sisters in the same Grand Slam. Or, just as likely (if not more so) we'll get another Serena-Venus final.

Actually, after today, I think that the odds of Williams-Williams and Federer-Nadal finals just skyrocketed. On the one hand, that is an exciting possibility. On the other, I'm ready for a change of scenery; I'm ready for Roddick to stop losing in such heartbreakers, for example.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Wimbledon First Week Review

With the first six days of action in Wimbledon complete, I think it's fair to say that this was the craziest first week of tennis since I started paying attention. At the Australian Open in 2008, there was an amazing middle weekend - you may remember James Blake's first ever five-set win and Federer being pushed to five sets by Janko Tipsarevic, as well as Hewitt-Baghdatis ending at four in the morning - but the rest of the week had not been up to par.

This week, the action has been coming from hard and fast from day one, when Federer nearly lost to Alejandro Falla, on the first match on center court. Of course, the highlight of the week was the historic, titanic struggle between John Isner and Nicolas Mahut, but even though that stands out for its sheer unlikelihood, there has been no shortage of other exciting events.

The first Saturday lived up to the rest of the week, as Rafael Nadal was pushed to five sets for the second time in three rounds, going down 2 sets to 1 before dominating the last two against Phillipp Petzschner. Sam Querrey was broken while serving for the match against Xavier Malisse, before coming back to win it 9-7 in what was probably the last game that they could have played before they would have been forced to suspend play on account of darkness. And even though it wasn't the top story on everyone's radar, the top seeds in the men's doubles draw lost to an unseeded British pair 8-6 in the fifth set.

The best part about this first week is that, despite the fact that nearly every player has been tested in these first six days of the tournament (only Robin Soderling and Andy Murray have yet to drop a set, I believe), there have not been any major upsets. The reason that this is beneficial is that some really spectacular matches are ready to get going when play resumes on Monday, which means that the second week has the potential of living up to the first.

It's worth noting that the second Monday at Wimbledon is a unique day on the tennis calendar. Since Wimbledon does not have any play on the middle Sunday, play resumes with every single fourth round match on the schedule, on both the men's side and the women's side. It is often the most exciting day of the year in the tennis calendar, and there's some potential for that again this year.

Roger Federer opens against Jurgen Melzer. It's surprising to me that these two players have never met on tour before, since they've both been around for a decade. Normally, you'd have to say that Federer is the huge favorite, but Fed has not played especially well recently, and Melzer represents a much tougher challenge than Alejandro Falla or Ilija Bozoljac. And he's a lefty, as well. There are murmurings of an upset, but it's definitely a long shot.

Second on center court is a rematch of the 2004 Wimbledon final, Serena Williams against Maria Sharapova. Serena leads the head to head 5-2, but one of the two wins for the Russian was in that final. It seems unlikely that Sharapova is going to turn the head-to-head around tomorrow, since Serena is in much better form, and has played better over the course of the last week - with the possible exception of the second set against her third round opponent. This could be a tight one, if Sharapova is on and Serena is a bit off.

The third match on center is Andy Murray against Sam Querrey. Murray is 3-0 against the young American, who has never even won a set. Considering that Murray has yet to drop a set this fortnight, it's going to be a tough match. But Querrey has gotten about as far in the game as he's capable of going by dominating the lower-tier events. He really needs to step up and get some wins over the game's top players on the biggest stage. This is a big opportunity for Sam, and could be turning point for his career, if he manages the upset.

You know that the order of play is stacked if Court 1 has five grand slam winners out of six players. The first match is the battle of the Belgians, Justine Henin against Kim Clijsters. While Henin leads the head to head, Clijsters has won both their meetings since the second stages of their careers got underway. This will be their first meeting in a slam since they both came back. This one's one of the toughest to call.

The second meeting between Grand Slam winners is Novak Djokovic against Lleyton Hewitt, which is another big match-up for both players. Despite staying at number three in the world, Djoker has not really been a big factor on tour lately. He is probably the third pick to make it through his quarter, since Roddick was a finalist here last year and Hewitt just got the biggest win he's had in years at Halle. If Djokovic can stop Hewitt here, he might get more people talking about him like a potential winner of the tourney, again. On the other hand, Hewitt can show people that his fighting spirit is enough to get him through two hip surgeries and years of being an afterthought. Three years ago, Djokovic beat Hewitt at this tournament by winning three tiebreaks out of four sets. This year's match may be just as close.

The last really interesting match, which surprisingly found its way to one of the outside courts, finds Robin Soderling against David Ferrer. Two top ten seeds, one of whom is a recent slam finalist. Soderling is the second player on the men's side who hasn't dropped a set yet, but Ferrer could just do it. Despite how big Soderling hits the ball, Ferrer just might be able to get enough balls back into play to frustrate the Swede, which is what it used to take to beat him - the new incarnation of Soderling might be too steady for that, but I'll be very interested to see how it goes. A definite contrast of styles between these two players.

Also keep an eye on the match between Na Li and Aggie Radwanksa, two top ten seeds on the women's side, but since neither player is expected to make it much further, this match has something of an air of consolation prize about it.

The remaining players have a somewhat easier time of it. Rafa Nadal gets Paul-Henri Mathieu, against whom he has a 9-0 record against. As long as the Spaniard isn't injured, the Frenchman should be dispatched with relatively ease. Venus Williams plays Jarmila Groth, Jankovic plays Zvonareva (which has a slight chance for an upset), Wozniacki plays Kvitova, and Roddick plays Taiwanese player Yen-Hsun Lu. Tomas Berdych should blow through German Daniel Brands as well, for a likely shot at Roger Federer. And JW Tsonga has a very good chance against Julien Benneteau, unless his back is causing him problems.

All of this on a single day? I'm really excited. Either there are going to be some killer upsets, or the match-ups are only going to get bigger as the week goes on. Either way, I'm thrilled.