Rome Semifinals

Down to four in Rome, and we could have had a Spanish rout. The first two matches of the day features upsets from Spanish players. Ferrer was just too solid for JW Tsonga, who will probably admit that clay is not his favorite surface. Ferrer, on the other hand, thrives on the stuff. So it wasn't a big surprise when Ferrer won a tight first set and then ran away with the second, delivering the first 6-1 set of the day.

Earlier, Verdasco and Djokovic had battled on for three sets, in the oddly-placed first match of the day. I'm not sure why they were first out, a position that nobody really relishes, because that was the highest-octane match-up. And it proved to be the tightest match of the day as well. Verdasco came out on top, as Djokovic just made too many errors, in the end. The top players (except for Nadal) are continuing to struggle, while Verdasco is now the hottest guy on tour.

Speaking of Nadal, his opponent came out playing the best I have ever seen him play. Wawrinka was an absolute revelation for the first nine games of the match. Up until 5-4 in the first set, Wawrinka had won two more points than Nadal despite having served only four games to Nadal's five. He had won 12 points on Nadal's serve and only given up one on his own. His whip-like backhand was cracking, and he looked like he really could challenge the king of clay. But when the pressure got to him, when he was serving to stay in the set at 4-5, Nadal upped his game and Wawrinka's dropped just enough. He broke, and the set was over. From there, the Swiss #2's spirit was broken. How can you play at your absolute highest level for that long and come away losing a set 6-4? He was never in the rest of the match, losing the second set 6-1, just like Tsonga.

The night match was an odd choice, but I think I may understand why. Ernests Gulbis and Feliciano Lopez had the least star power of any of the quarterfinals, but I think people are speculating that Gulbis might be the real deal. That this guy is bound for the top ten, and possibly Grand Slam glory. He may just do it, if he can play the way he's played this week - maybe if he leaves behind his strategy of choking on big points, though. He beat Lopez in a tight first set, then breezed through the second, in a pattern that was pretty familiar at this point. He won the third 6-1, as well.

I've always liked Gulbis for his game, but I am starting to really like his personality. He is honest in his interviews in a way that very few tennis players can manage to be, and he has a magnificent sense of humor. He reminds me a bit of Andy Roddick in that regard. After beating Federer, he was asked how he felt during his multiple match points. A normal tennis player might have said that he was nervous, that he felt tight, or that he was feeling the pressure, but Gulbis said he was "shitting his pants." Today, he had a set point in the first set that he duffed on an easy overhand. Asked about that after the match, he said, "If I miss that overhead and lose the set, I'm quitting tennis, because I just can't handle it." (I may be paraphrasing, but I think I got the gist of it)

But my favorite quote of his this week comes from a question he got about his sophomore slump. In his second year on tour after his quarterfinal at the French Open and semifinal run in Cincinatti in 2008, Gulbis accomplished approximately nothing on court. He flew around the world, partied a lot, and play some mediocre-to-horrible tennis. But when he was asked if he thought he wasted that time, he had this to say: "Sorry, I don’t agree. I have had a good life. I’m a young guy and I didn’t waste it. Maybe tennis-wise but tennis isn’t everything in life. It’s not all my life…… I was living more experiences, even bad experiences in the end are good. I know what I don’t need to do – to not succeed! I know how to do that perfectly! If you need some tips on how to not succeed…! Now I’m a little bit smarter and I think I’m doing better.”

I think this guy's stock is going straight up. If he really is focused on the game now, there's no telling how good he could get. And if he can settle down in the pressure situations and stop shitting his pants, I see no reason for him to be at the level of a Murray, Djokovic, or Del Potro. But he's a better interview than all of this guys, and good personalities are good for the sport.

That said, he is going to get absolutely murdered by Nadal tomorrow. Nadal isn't so far removed from being the wunderkind to forget what that's like, but he is far enough away to want to make sure everyone knows he's still the one that people should be worried about. If Gulbis even wins more than 5 games in tomorrow's match, I think that will really be an indication of his potential, but there's no way he's pulling off an upset.

The other semifinal between David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco depends primarily on one factor: whether or not Verdasco is starting to get tired. He's played so many matches in the last couple of weeks that - at some point - he's bound to get jaded. But he beat Ferrer just about two weeks ago, in a very tight match. This one could go either way, but I expect that the final result will rest on whether or not Verdasco is at 100%. In either case, I don't expect either of them to trouble Nadal. Maybe they'll get more than a game, though. Nadal hasn't been quite at the level he was during the Monte Carlo final this week. That said, he's been plenty strong to blow through his competition.

Rome Quarterfinals

We're down to the last eight in Rome. The action today was, for the most part, not too terribly exciting. Only one match went three sets, and it wasn't because of the thrilling tennis. Ernests Gulbis was trying almost as hard as he did on Monday to choke away a match that he was playing well enough to win, and his opponent Filippo Volandri nearly let him, but he wasn't sufficiently solid to take the third set either. Gulbis advances to the quarterfinal and faces the winnner (if you can call him that) of the only match to go fewer than two sets.

That's right. Ivan Ljubicic apparently injured his rib during the warm-up in his match against Feliciano Lopez, and was forced to withdraw. Great result for Lopez, who really had no business making it to this stage. And how thrilled is he to see Ernests Gulbis, who almost gave away both of his previous matches, rather than Roger Federer? If Ernie plays the way he can, he should win, but if he gets overwhelmed by the situation, then it will be tough for him.

They'll be playing for the honor of facing the winner of Rafael Nadal vs. Stanislas Wawrinka, which is to say - they'll be playing to face Nadal. Credit to Wawrinka, who upset Robin Soderling, but the Swede was playing jaded after all the tennis he's played lately. And in that condition, who can get too excited about probably getting a revenge beatdown from Nadal? Soderling definitely didn't tank, but I doubt that his heart was entirely in it today. And who could blame him? Best of luck to Stan, who staged the best win of his career here a couple years ago when he beat Roger Federer, but I don't give him too much chance against Nadal. He would have to play perfect and then get a Nadal who's somewhat off his game. In his match today, Hanescu was the best I've ever seen him play for stretches, but Nadal still dispatched him with ease. Good luck, Stan.

While there's only a single seed left in the top half of the draw, and he could probably beat the other three players if they were all working together, the bottom half of the draw is still loaded with top players. The first quarterfinal is JW Tsonga against David Ferrer, who have never faced each other on tour before. One's a big hitter, the other's a big returner. I give Ferrer the edge on this surface, but it could go either way.

The other quarterfinal is even tighter. Novak Djokovic, still the number two player in the world, squares off against a guy who is putting together a spectacular run this season so far, Fernando Verdasco. "Hot Sauce" made the final in Monte Carlo and won Barcelona, so he's playing well. Djoko, on the other hand, hasn't been showing his best stuff with any consistency since his win in the Davis Cup against the US. He's been great for a match or two, but then he falls apart again. The Serb hasn't beaten a player ranked inside the top 15 all year. The thing is, though, that he hasn't had the chance to play that many, either. He could start to get his year back on track with a win here against Verdasco. Should be a fun one, though.

Rome Third Round

We're on to the round of 16 in Rome, with the major players making it through without too much difficulty. There were a few upsets today, though nothing compared to yesterday's defeat of Roger Federer by Ernests Gulbis. Really, nothing could have, except for possibly Nadal losing to Kohlschreiber. Nadal breezed through against the German, dropping four games and a mere nine points total through eight service games. Not much to report, there.

The best match of the day - or at least the tightest - may have been between Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka. The Swiss #2 managed to eke a tough win in a third set tiebreak, 8-6. But Wawrinka is a former top ten player and an accomplished clay courter, so this was always going to be tight. It isn't Berdych's best surface, either. The other two seeds who fell today were also tall guys - Marin Cilic looked to be cruising against Feliciano Lopez, only to lose the second set in a tiebreak and the third 6-4. Really, Cilic had not business losing that match, as Lopez may be the Spaniard with the least game on clay. On the other hand, John Isner was almost expected to lose against Brazilian Tomaz Bellucci, and that may have hurt me in the pressure moments of his 7-6, 7-5 loss. While he wasn't seeded, Lleyton Hewitt certainly hoped to put up a better performance than a 2 and 3 loss to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez after he had worked so hard to upset Mikhail Youzhny in the first round.

Despite the loss of a few of the top players, things are looking very interesting from here on out. Federer's departure is the most surprising, and his section of the draw is now pretty much bare. As Cilic and Querrey have already lost, the lone seed left in that quarter is Ivan Ljubicic. He should beat Feliciano Lopez tomorrow on the second court, while Ernest Gulbis plays on center. He was on the main stage on Monday because he was facing the number one player in the world, but he'll be there tomorrow because he's up against the last Italian player in the draw, Filippo Vilandri. Gulbis really ought to win that match, but it wouldn't be impossible for him to be hungover after the biggest win of his career.

Nadal faces Victor Hanescu in tomorrow's night match, and that should be an easy match for the Spaniard. He'll have to be ready for the quartefinals, though, because he'll face either Robin Soderling, who bested him last year at the French, or Stanislas Wawrinka. That's one of tomorrow's best matches, and definitely the best one taking place on the second court. They have a 1-1 head to head, and I think this match is almost a pick-em.

Verdasco and Tsonga are each up tomorrow against a couple of untested clay court specialists, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Santiago Giraldo. I expect both of them to come through. Their potential quarterfinal opponents, though, have tougher tasks ahead of them.

Andy Murray, who would face Tsonga if both win, has to be excited about getting his first win here in Rome. His losses in the last four tournaments he's played have been so discouraging that he'll take any momentum he could get. However, I'll wager he wishes he could have another match under his belt before he had to take on David Ferrer, who is his opponent tomorrow. On a normal day and on any other surface, I'd give Murray the edge. But considering how poorly he's been playing and how comfortable Ferrer is on clay, this is a tough ask for the Scotsman tomorrow. Novak Djokovic, in the bottom section of the draw, faces Tomaz Bellucci, who doesn't have the proven results of Ferrer, but is still a solid young clay court player. I think that Bellucci has about as much chance of staging an upset as Gulbis did against Federer. He'll need a little help, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Looking ahead, I think that Gulbis should be disappointed if he doesn't make the semis, here. He's won the toughest match he could have expected, and he won't face any comparable resistance until that stage. Even if he faces Ljubicic in the quarters, he should be able to take that match. He'll likely find Nadal there, who must be hoping for Soderling to beat Wawrinka so he get some revenge. The other half of the draw is much more interesting, with a lot more riding on the matches that Murray and Djokovic play tomorrow. But I wouldn't be too surprised to see any of six of the remaining eight players make their way to the final. Sorry Giraldo and Garcia-Lopez.

Rome Second Round

Tomorrow, we'll wrap up the second round of the Rome Masters. We've had a handful of upsets already, so the landscape of the tournament may look a little bit different than what people had expected.

Juan Carlos Ferrero was the first surprise casualty, as he was duffed up by Colombian qualifier Santiago Giraldo. The Spaniard might have been tired from all the tennis he was playing, but I didn't see the match, so I can't really explain how he looked in his loss. Here's hoping he recovers in time for the French. He made the final there twice, winning in 2003. He had the semifinals the two years before that. However, since then, he hasn't made it past the third round. Maybe because he played too much during the rest of the clay season?

The other seed to fall on Monday was American Sam Querrey, but his loss wasn't really an upset. Really, the upset was when his compatriot John Isner beat Horacio Zeballos, who is a good player on clay. Querrey served for the match in the third set against Frenchman Julien Benneteau, but he ended up being broken and losing in a tie-break. He redeemed himself a bit as he and Isner squeaked out a win against Tsonga and Wawrinka in doubles, but he can play better on clay, and he'll need to if he wants to break into the top 20.

Today, there were a few more upsets. Mikhail Youzhny fell apart at the end of his match against Lleyton Hewitt, giving the Australian number one his second victory over a player in the top 100 this year. A good win for Hewitt. Juan Monaco also fell to Victor Hanescu, which is a bit of a surprise, but both of those players are good clay courters, so anyone could have come out on top.

The last upset of the day was also the most shocking. Ernests Gulbis upset world number one Roger Federer, 7-5 in the fifth set, after Federer won the first 6-2. It wasn't like Gulbis came out playing poorly. Fed was just playing vintage tennis for the first eight games. But after that, he went off the boil, and Ernests won the second 6-1. He had 7 match points in the third, and on the first six, he made unforced errors. Two of them were double faults. On the seventh, mercifully, Federer sunk a bankhand return into the net.

First of all, this is a huge win for Gulbis. While Federer played poorly today, lots of players can't beat Federer even when he's playing that bad. Gulbis nearly came up short. The nerves got to him at the end of the match. He was surprisingly candid in his post-match interviews, in that he was basically "shitting his pants." That's as far as a lot of players get, but Gulbis is so talented, he managed to collapse over the finish line. Personally, I'm hoping that it's a mark of things to come. There's no reason that Gulbis shouldn't be top twenty, maybe even top ten, with as much talent as he has. He's had trouble following up big wins before, but he's got a day to rest before he faces either Volandri or Benneteau, either of whom should be more easily dispatched than Federer, even at his forehand-shanking worst.

As for Federer, some people are sounding the alarm bells after three consecutive tournaments with surprising losses: Baghdatis, Berdych, and now Gulbis, the least accomplished of the three. I would be worried, if not for the fact that Federer managed to find the level of play he needed at the Australian Open. He's 6-4 in matches outside of grand slams, and 7-0 in them. I've been wondering whether Federer can still manage to care about all of the little tournaments. He's won so many of them, it was tough for me to see how he could keep playing his best, week after week. And so far this year, it seems like he can't. We'll see what happens in the next couple of weeks - I expect Federer can win Estoril again, but the big test will be whether he can play like AO-Federer at the French Open again.

The rest of the action that took place today was relatively boring and doesn't merit a lot of mention. Djokovic cruised, Murray finally got a win, Ferrer won, as did Almagro and Bellucci, who will face Isner in the next round. Since most of the top players played today, the remainder of the action tomorrow gives us less opportunity for fireworks, in all likelihood.

Soderling, Nadal, and Verdasco are all in action. It will be interesting to see how all three of them do, since they all have to be in the conversation at the French Open. Marin Cilic, JW Tsonga, and Tomas Berdych also all play their first matches tomorrow, as well. Berdych faces Wawrinka, which could be a cracker of a match. The other potentially exciting matches include Ljubicic against Almagro and Belluci against Isner, the last American in the singles draw. We'll see if he can keep the flag flying for one more round.

Barcelona Wrap-up and Rome Preview

The Barcelona final has completed, and despite Nadal's withdrawal at the beginning of the week, a Spaniard still managed to win the title. Fernando Verdasco played solid clay-court tennis to upset last year's French Open finalist Robin Soderling. Soderling just couldn't quite find his range on his groundstrokes for an extended period of time, and Verdasco's movement was sufficiently better than the Swede's that he didn't have many other options. Kudos to Verdasco, who has been quietly putting together an excellent year. And to Soderling, who has made his third career clay-court final, and even though he couldn't seal the deal, he showed that he is still a force to be reckoned with on any surface.

It's always tough to make it to the final only to lose when you have to play the next week, because while Verdasco can build on the momentum he may have gotten from his second title of the year, Soderling played just as much tennis and didn't come away with a title. Both of them are in the draw at Rome, as well as most of the other top players, with a few notable exceptions.

Del Potro, Davydenko, Gonzalez, Robredo, Monfils, Stepanek, and Haas are all out with injury. That's a lot of players in the top 21 who can't play. Andy Roddick is also skipping the tournament, but not because of injury, just because he's decided he doesn't have any chance of playing on clay and doesn't want to bother. He can skip out on the fine he would normally receive because of his veteran status on the tour, but he can't get any more ranking points, and he is still going to get a big fat zero for this tournament, since it's going to count as one of the eight required Masters Series events, whether he plays it or not. And since he just dropped to number eight in the world after Soderling came in second at Barcelona, it is not unreasonable to consider the possibility of a top ten with no Americans as the hard court swing begins after Wimbledon.

In any case, we'll see what happens on that front as the year progresses. This week in Rome, the top players who are not hobbled are all there. Roger Federer is, of course, the top seed. He's still on a quest for his second tournament victory of the year, after his Australian Open title earlier in the year. He'll open up against the winner of one of the most enticing first-round match-ups, between a pair of hot-and-cold players: Baghdatis and Gulbis. Baghdatis beat Federer earlier in the year, so it would be interesting to see a rematch. After that, he may get Sam Querrey, if the American survives to the third round. In the quartefinals, Federer is likely to face either Cilic, Ljubicic, or Nicolas Almagro. I don't see any of these players upsetting the Fed, but I would have said that about everyone who's beaten him since January this year. So we'll just see what kind of form he brings to his first clay-court tournament of the year.

Nadal is the third seed here, and he ended up in Federer's half of the draw. That means it's possible that we'll have the first Nadal-Federer matchup outside of a final in a regular tournament (end of year tourney doesn't count) since Roland Garros in 2005. To do that, Rafael Nadal will have a handful of challenging players to make his way through. Kohlschreiber, Monaco, and Soderling are the likeliest candidates. But if he plays the way he played in Monte Carlo, none of these players poses a real threat. The other potential opponents he might find - Berdych, Wawrinka, Andreev, Hanescu, Melzer - are all fine players, but none of them have the pedigree that they need to seriously challenge the king of clay. I really hope to see a Nadal-Soderling quarterfinal, because I bet that Nadal will want to get some revenge for his loss at the French Open last year. If Nadal is healthy and fit, he's through to the semifinals. It's as simple as that.

Since the semifinal on that half of the draw is looking like it could be Federer-Nadal, the other half of the draw seems like it could be a competition for the chance to lose in the final. Murray is the fourth seed here in Rome, despite dropping down to five in the rankings this week behind Juan Martin Del Potro, who hasn't even been playing. He's also on a three-match losing streak, which is almost unbelievable for a top five player. I would be shocked if that trend continued here, because Murray opens against Andreas Seppi, and has a three-match win streak against the Italian. Once he gets a win under his belt, he might be able to put together his first good tournament since his run to the Aussie Open final. His quarter is not the strongest, with two exceptions - Ferrer and Ferrero are there, and Murray might find one in the third round and the other in the quarters. He could also see Tsonga there, who might open against Thiemo De Bakker, who beat him last week in Barcelona. Other than that, there aren't a lot of likely contenders in Murray's section, which is hopeful for him.

The final quarter of the draw features second seed Novak Djokovic seeded to meet Barcelona champion Fernando Verdasco in the quarters, assuming the Spaniard isn't burnt out after reaching a final and winning a tournament in consecutive weeks. There's an interesting match-up here between Mikhail Youzhny and Lleyton Hewitt, who has yet to get his year going, thus far. John Isner is also in this section, the top American (of two) in the draw, and he plays Horacio Zeballos in the first round. He may get Bellucci in the second round and Djokovic in the third - it's a tough ask for the big American, but at least he's not getting Federer. Still, it's a longshot to think that a US player can make a deep run here.

The clay court season has been relatively straightforward, with two Spaniards, an Argentine, and a Swiss player winning the four tournaments that have taken place so far. I think it's likely that a Spaniard or Swiss player will win this tournament, too.