It looks like the topsy-turvy world of tennis we saw in the first two Masters Series events of the year may have calmed down somewhat. The final four standing in the first Masters tournament played on clay feature four very familiar faces, and four of the best clay-court players on tour. Fernando Verdasco is actually the weakest of the players remaining, since his game is a big more situated towards hard courts to the detriment of his clay court prowess. The other three have all had good results on hard courts, but their games are at their best when they're on red clay.
Verdasco faces Novak Djokovic, who is looking to pick up his clay-court season where he left it in 2009, before his amazing semifinal loss to Nadal at Rome. After that, which was one of the best matches of the year, he was hung over at Roland Garros and didn't play up to his potential. Prior to that, he had been the second-best clay court player on tour, after Nadal. So far, he's been playing very strong tennis, winning both of his matches on clay against the U.S. in Davis Cup, and yet to drop a set here in Monte Carlo, despite some tough opposition. You have to favor Djokovic in this match, as I believe he has both better shotmaking and a better chance to be solid from the baseline.
The other semifinal features David Ferrer facing off against Rafael Nadal, which will probably be even more one-sided. Verdasco and Ferrer are fine players, top-ten quality guys, no doubt. But they're playing against the two best guys on tour on this surface, and Ferrer in particular is facing the best player ever on clay. So it's a really tough ask to beat him. Nadal has only lost 16 matches on clay in his career, and that's against 181 wins and 25 titles. That's just mind-boggling.
It's almost a certainty that Nadal will face Djokovic in the final at this point, and that's an appetizing matchup, after the battles they had last year. Ferrer and Verdasco are out to spoil the party, but I don't give either of them a huge chance to do so. After some crazy and unexpected results in Miami and Indian Wells, it's maybe a nice thing to have the top two seeds meet in the final, here. But we'll just have to wait and see.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Friday, April 16, 2010
Monte Carlo Quarterfinals
There is no doubt that the clay season has at last begun in earnest; here we are at the last eight in Monte Carlo, and five of the players still standing are Spanish. They live on the red stuff, so you can hear the collective Spanish tennis nation suppressing their excitement at this early sign of what may be some serious dominance.
The only Spaniard who could have made it this far who lost today was Tommy Robredo, who lost a fairly routine match to David Nalbandian. Good for David, for following up his gutsy win over Mikhail Youzhny with a solid performance against an experienced clay-courter like Robredo. Nalbandian was just better on the big points, saving 6 out of Robredo's 7 break point chances. Don't expect Nalbandian's ranking to stay around 150 for very long - that's a promise. I expect him to be seeded by the U.S. Open. You heard it here first!
The only other non-Spanish players still in the draw are Novak Djokovic, who had a relatively easy time with Stan Wawrinka, and Phillip Kohlschreiber, who ousted his German compatriot Petzschner with even less difficulty and fanfare. For Kohlschreiber, it's great to reach a quarterfinal, but he just got lucky to find himself facing an addled Andy Murray and a pair of nobodies. His good run ends here, as tomorrow he'll face David Ferrer, and despite a close head to head - including a blowout win for the German on clay back in 2008 - I pick the bulldog here to win relatively easily. It was a nice run while it lasted, though.
Speaking of nice runs, Djokovic's opponent in the quarterfinals is David Nalbandian. As I mentioned above, Nalbandian's result has been great. Nobody's going to be surprised if he loses to the top seed at the tournament, but he is showing that he is still such a clean ball-striker and fluid mover that he has the capacity to beat anybody. If he can even make this match competitive, then there's no telling how well he can do this year. I still like Djokovic to get through it, though, but look for some spectacular ball-striking in this match from both sides.
The first all-Spanish quarterfinal features Fernando Verdasco and Albert Montanes. "Hot Sauce" is 3-0 against his lower-ranked opponent, and I think that streak continues through tomorrow. Not as much to say about this one.
On the other hand, the last quarterfinal is absolutely fascinating. The only two Monte Carlo titlists still playing the game face off in what is really disappointing to be happening this early in the tournament. Juan Carlos Ferrero has the most wins on clay of any player on tour so far this year. He already has a pair of titles on dirt since January, while Rafael Nadal's clay court pedigree needs no explanation. And in his first two matches, Nadal has lost 40 points. That's 40 points in 26 games. He's also lost 2 out of 26 games. That's not just good, that is terrifying.
This is an absolutely essential tournament for Nadal. He hasn't won a title since May 3 of last year. That's more than 11 months. It is his longest dry spell since winning his first title back way back in 2004. He has won Monte Carlo every year since 2005, and no one - no player in the open era - has won a tournament six years running. So he's gunning for history as well as trying to get his current game back on track, after a relatively poor year that saw him drop from the number two spot. If he can right the ship and win this title, then everyone will know that things will be back to normal. But if he doesn't... Nadal may never get back to the dominance he was capable of in the past few years.
It will be a huge ask for Ferrero to upset Nadal, considering how brutal, even cruel his first two victories were. But their last meeting (of 8) was a victory for Ferrero, and even on clay. But that may have been an anomaly. Nadal leads 6-2 in the overall head to head, and unless a different player shows up tomorrow than we saw yesterday or the day before, I don't see what Ferrero can do. He may have been the best player on clay so far this year, but Nadal is the best clay court player of all time, and he's looked like it so far this tournament.
The only Spaniard who could have made it this far who lost today was Tommy Robredo, who lost a fairly routine match to David Nalbandian. Good for David, for following up his gutsy win over Mikhail Youzhny with a solid performance against an experienced clay-courter like Robredo. Nalbandian was just better on the big points, saving 6 out of Robredo's 7 break point chances. Don't expect Nalbandian's ranking to stay around 150 for very long - that's a promise. I expect him to be seeded by the U.S. Open. You heard it here first!
The only other non-Spanish players still in the draw are Novak Djokovic, who had a relatively easy time with Stan Wawrinka, and Phillip Kohlschreiber, who ousted his German compatriot Petzschner with even less difficulty and fanfare. For Kohlschreiber, it's great to reach a quarterfinal, but he just got lucky to find himself facing an addled Andy Murray and a pair of nobodies. His good run ends here, as tomorrow he'll face David Ferrer, and despite a close head to head - including a blowout win for the German on clay back in 2008 - I pick the bulldog here to win relatively easily. It was a nice run while it lasted, though.
Speaking of nice runs, Djokovic's opponent in the quarterfinals is David Nalbandian. As I mentioned above, Nalbandian's result has been great. Nobody's going to be surprised if he loses to the top seed at the tournament, but he is showing that he is still such a clean ball-striker and fluid mover that he has the capacity to beat anybody. If he can even make this match competitive, then there's no telling how well he can do this year. I still like Djokovic to get through it, though, but look for some spectacular ball-striking in this match from both sides.
The first all-Spanish quarterfinal features Fernando Verdasco and Albert Montanes. "Hot Sauce" is 3-0 against his lower-ranked opponent, and I think that streak continues through tomorrow. Not as much to say about this one.
On the other hand, the last quarterfinal is absolutely fascinating. The only two Monte Carlo titlists still playing the game face off in what is really disappointing to be happening this early in the tournament. Juan Carlos Ferrero has the most wins on clay of any player on tour so far this year. He already has a pair of titles on dirt since January, while Rafael Nadal's clay court pedigree needs no explanation. And in his first two matches, Nadal has lost 40 points. That's 40 points in 26 games. He's also lost 2 out of 26 games. That's not just good, that is terrifying.
This is an absolutely essential tournament for Nadal. He hasn't won a title since May 3 of last year. That's more than 11 months. It is his longest dry spell since winning his first title back way back in 2004. He has won Monte Carlo every year since 2005, and no one - no player in the open era - has won a tournament six years running. So he's gunning for history as well as trying to get his current game back on track, after a relatively poor year that saw him drop from the number two spot. If he can right the ship and win this title, then everyone will know that things will be back to normal. But if he doesn't... Nadal may never get back to the dominance he was capable of in the past few years.
It will be a huge ask for Ferrero to upset Nadal, considering how brutal, even cruel his first two victories were. But their last meeting (of 8) was a victory for Ferrero, and even on clay. But that may have been an anomaly. Nadal leads 6-2 in the overall head to head, and unless a different player shows up tomorrow than we saw yesterday or the day before, I don't see what Ferrero can do. He may have been the best player on clay so far this year, but Nadal is the best clay court player of all time, and he's looked like it so far this tournament.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Monte Carlo Day 4
We're on to the third round in Monte Carlo, and all 16 remaining players are in action. You can tell that the draw here is not as strong as it had been at the last two Masters Series events, or as it will likely be at the majority of the Masters events later in the year. There are some big names there, but also a higher percentage of relatively middle-of-the-road talent to be making the last sixteen at a tournament of his stature.
Petzchner and Kohlschreiber, for example, is a match that nobody at the tournament is getting too excited about. Even the German contingent can't be too excited, as one of their players is going to have to lose. Kohlschreiber should be excited about his win over Andy Murray, but that didn't have too much to do with his play. Murray would have lost to just about anybody, yesterday. Still, he needs to take advantage of this chance to make a run.
The rest of the matches have at least one player who is top ten or at least former top ten, so there's more of interest elsewhere on the grounds. Marin Cilic faces a tough match against clay-court veteran Albert Montanes. Cilic is a better player, but Montanes has much more experience on this kind of surface, so that could work against him. It's a tough match for the young Croat, so we'll see how he can handle the pressure.
The other opening match is much more deserving of the situation, as Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych go up against each other, in a rematch of a quarterfinal from Miami. Berdych won that one in a tight match, but I think the Spaniard has the advantage on clay. This is match between two experienced and talented players, who had a recent, tight encounter. Could be one of tomorrow's better matches.
Nadal is up next on center court, and he got a cupcake of a second-round opponent. Michael Berrer is another German, but this is not the place for him. He's 5-12 on clay, so don't expect him to trouble Nadal. If Nadal plays even close to the way he played against De Bakker, he could win without even dropping that single game. The bookies have given Berrer 60:1 odds, which may actually be generous.
Ivan Ljubicic has his first real test tomorrow, against Spaniard David Ferrer. On any other surface, this would be a tight match, but the clay will slow down the Croat's serve and big groundstrokes, giving Ferrer more time to get to the balls. Ferrer has won the pair's last four meetings, and I expect he'll get the W tomorrow as well. Ljubicic just can't hit through another player here the way he did in Indian Wells.
There are a lot of Spaniards around the grounds, as you may have noticed. Tommy Robredo is another one, and he faces the comeback story of the tournament so far, David Nalbandian, who won a great match against Mikhail Youzhny in the last round. It's interesting, actually... the last two times this pair met was two and four years ago at this very tournament, in this very round. Robredo won in 2006 in a tight three-setter, and Nalbandian won in 2008 in dominant fashion. This is all in Nalbandian's hands, I would say. If he can hit the ball consistently and deep, Robredo just doesn't have the firepower to trouble him. But he's been off the court for so long, it's tough to stay solid for that long. This could be a good one, too.
Another Spaniard faces Frenchman JW Tsonga on center court after Nadal, as the only former champion in the field, Juan Carlos Ferrero, faces off against the big-hitting Frenchman. Despite the fact that his home Slam is on clay, Tsonga's game has always been better suited to the hardcourts of Australia or New York. Tsonga leads the head to head 2-0, but the pair has never played on clay, and Ferrero is the best claycourter of the year, thus far. Surprisingly, Tsonga's career record on clay is only 12-7. Just because of the surface, I may lean towards Ferrero, here. More of a toss-up than some other matches, though.
The last match of note is top seed Novak Djokovic against a great Swiss player - of course, I mean Stan "The Man" Wawrinka, who actually has the longest winning streak on tour, at the moment. He's coming off his first title in quite a few years, and riding quite a bit of confidence. Djokovic, despite looking solid in the first round, has every reason to be shaky. An upset here is unlikely, as Djokovic is 7-2 against Stan, and has won the last 6. But it could be tight, and Djokovic may not be able to keep his game together if he's challenged.
Petzchner and Kohlschreiber, for example, is a match that nobody at the tournament is getting too excited about. Even the German contingent can't be too excited, as one of their players is going to have to lose. Kohlschreiber should be excited about his win over Andy Murray, but that didn't have too much to do with his play. Murray would have lost to just about anybody, yesterday. Still, he needs to take advantage of this chance to make a run.
The rest of the matches have at least one player who is top ten or at least former top ten, so there's more of interest elsewhere on the grounds. Marin Cilic faces a tough match against clay-court veteran Albert Montanes. Cilic is a better player, but Montanes has much more experience on this kind of surface, so that could work against him. It's a tough match for the young Croat, so we'll see how he can handle the pressure.
The other opening match is much more deserving of the situation, as Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych go up against each other, in a rematch of a quarterfinal from Miami. Berdych won that one in a tight match, but I think the Spaniard has the advantage on clay. This is match between two experienced and talented players, who had a recent, tight encounter. Could be one of tomorrow's better matches.
Nadal is up next on center court, and he got a cupcake of a second-round opponent. Michael Berrer is another German, but this is not the place for him. He's 5-12 on clay, so don't expect him to trouble Nadal. If Nadal plays even close to the way he played against De Bakker, he could win without even dropping that single game. The bookies have given Berrer 60:1 odds, which may actually be generous.
Ivan Ljubicic has his first real test tomorrow, against Spaniard David Ferrer. On any other surface, this would be a tight match, but the clay will slow down the Croat's serve and big groundstrokes, giving Ferrer more time to get to the balls. Ferrer has won the pair's last four meetings, and I expect he'll get the W tomorrow as well. Ljubicic just can't hit through another player here the way he did in Indian Wells.
There are a lot of Spaniards around the grounds, as you may have noticed. Tommy Robredo is another one, and he faces the comeback story of the tournament so far, David Nalbandian, who won a great match against Mikhail Youzhny in the last round. It's interesting, actually... the last two times this pair met was two and four years ago at this very tournament, in this very round. Robredo won in 2006 in a tight three-setter, and Nalbandian won in 2008 in dominant fashion. This is all in Nalbandian's hands, I would say. If he can hit the ball consistently and deep, Robredo just doesn't have the firepower to trouble him. But he's been off the court for so long, it's tough to stay solid for that long. This could be a good one, too.
Another Spaniard faces Frenchman JW Tsonga on center court after Nadal, as the only former champion in the field, Juan Carlos Ferrero, faces off against the big-hitting Frenchman. Despite the fact that his home Slam is on clay, Tsonga's game has always been better suited to the hardcourts of Australia or New York. Tsonga leads the head to head 2-0, but the pair has never played on clay, and Ferrero is the best claycourter of the year, thus far. Surprisingly, Tsonga's career record on clay is only 12-7. Just because of the surface, I may lean towards Ferrero, here. More of a toss-up than some other matches, though.
The last match of note is top seed Novak Djokovic against a great Swiss player - of course, I mean Stan "The Man" Wawrinka, who actually has the longest winning streak on tour, at the moment. He's coming off his first title in quite a few years, and riding quite a bit of confidence. Djokovic, despite looking solid in the first round, has every reason to be shaky. An upset here is unlikely, as Djokovic is 7-2 against Stan, and has won the last 6. But it could be tight, and Djokovic may not be able to keep his game together if he's challenged.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Monte Carlo Day 3
It's Wednesday in Monte Carlo, and that means that the rest of the second-round matches will be underway. Finally, we'll see how the top seeds are ready to adjust to the European clay-court swing. Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray are all in action tomorrow, and realistically, none of them should be tested in any of their matches. Murray may face the toughest test in German Phillipp Kohlschreiber, but if he can't handle the German on clay in the second round at Monte Carlo, then he can't expect to be a force on this surface for a while. That's the most interesting match among the top guys, to see what kind of form the Scot is in. Has he gotten over the loss to Federer at the Aussie Open? Roddick was basically out of action for the rest of the year, once he lost Wimbledon, so Murray may have to wait a bit to get his head back in the game, yet.
But that's not to say that the other top players should have no trouble at all. Djokovic, despite his relatively easy first match against Florent Serra, is struggling with his game, after a pair of lackluster performances at the last two Masters Series tournaments. He's been having trouble with his game, he's been mentally drained since his two wins against the US in Davis Cup, and he just fired his coach Todd Martin. He needs to get his serve back together, and he needs to cut out the unforced errors. We'll see if he's back on track.
For Nadal, the problem isn't mental. It will be interesting to see if he's back at his physical best. Clay is his surface, and he has a lot of points to defend for the next few months. How are his knees? How's his movement? Will he be as fast as he's been in the past? His first match should be a good test, as Thiemo De Bakker may not have a lot of experience at tour level, but he has four Challenger titles, all on clay. So he knows how to play on crushed brick. A handful of Challenger titles isn't enough to really unseat the king of clay, though, so I expect Nadal to come through. It will all depend on how cleanly he can make it through the match, to gauge how well he's playing, now that he's back at home and should be finding the ball in his wheelhouse, more often than not.
There are a couple other matches of interest taking place tomorrow, with four players who could make a run at this tournament. Ernests Gulbis is playing Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who followed up his victory in last week's final against Victor Hanescu by beating him again in the first round here. Gulbis made his debut a couple years ago at the French Open, so both of these guys can play some dirtball. I'm anxious to see how this one turns out. Gulbis looked like he might be ready to reach the next level when he won his first title on U.S. hard courts, but he was mostly AWOL during the two Masters Series there. We'll see if he can do better here.
The other match to keep an eye on is Mikhail Youzhny against David Nalbandian. Nalbandian is still on the comeback trail, but he hasn't been gifted any particularly fortunate draws up to this point. This tournament might be his best chance to get back to a quarterfinal, if he can play close to the level of his former best. But he's up against another relative veteran, who's been playing some much better ball as of late. Youzhny is near his career high ranking, but these two have never met on clay, so this could be an interesting match to see if Nalbandian is a player who might still have some good tennis ahead of him, or if his surgery and layoff was just too much to recover from.
But that's not to say that the other top players should have no trouble at all. Djokovic, despite his relatively easy first match against Florent Serra, is struggling with his game, after a pair of lackluster performances at the last two Masters Series tournaments. He's been having trouble with his game, he's been mentally drained since his two wins against the US in Davis Cup, and he just fired his coach Todd Martin. He needs to get his serve back together, and he needs to cut out the unforced errors. We'll see if he's back on track.
For Nadal, the problem isn't mental. It will be interesting to see if he's back at his physical best. Clay is his surface, and he has a lot of points to defend for the next few months. How are his knees? How's his movement? Will he be as fast as he's been in the past? His first match should be a good test, as Thiemo De Bakker may not have a lot of experience at tour level, but he has four Challenger titles, all on clay. So he knows how to play on crushed brick. A handful of Challenger titles isn't enough to really unseat the king of clay, though, so I expect Nadal to come through. It will all depend on how cleanly he can make it through the match, to gauge how well he's playing, now that he's back at home and should be finding the ball in his wheelhouse, more often than not.
There are a couple other matches of interest taking place tomorrow, with four players who could make a run at this tournament. Ernests Gulbis is playing Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who followed up his victory in last week's final against Victor Hanescu by beating him again in the first round here. Gulbis made his debut a couple years ago at the French Open, so both of these guys can play some dirtball. I'm anxious to see how this one turns out. Gulbis looked like he might be ready to reach the next level when he won his first title on U.S. hard courts, but he was mostly AWOL during the two Masters Series there. We'll see if he can do better here.
The other match to keep an eye on is Mikhail Youzhny against David Nalbandian. Nalbandian is still on the comeback trail, but he hasn't been gifted any particularly fortunate draws up to this point. This tournament might be his best chance to get back to a quarterfinal, if he can play close to the level of his former best. But he's up against another relative veteran, who's been playing some much better ball as of late. Youzhny is near his career high ranking, but these two have never met on clay, so this could be an interesting match to see if Nalbandian is a player who might still have some good tennis ahead of him, or if his surgery and layoff was just too much to recover from.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Monte Carlo Preview and Week 14 Review
With the preview week for the clay court season completed, things are about to get underway in earnest. Well, sort of. First of all, the results.
Sam Querrey ended the potential for a disaster to get any worse by beating Wayne Odesnik, but then he continued his poor performance in finals and lost to Juan Ignacio Chela. In his defense, clay has to be considered Querrey's worst surface, at least according to the way he plays, and it's also Chela's best. Still, Querrey's game really got loose in the final game of the last two sets, which is a shame, because he played well - for the most part. To be a really elite player, though, Sam's going to need to be more focused in finals. Credit to Chela, for winning his first title in three years.
In Casablanca, there was another winner who hadn't won a title in quite a few years. Stan Wawrinka had gone 0-5 since 2006, including a runner-up earlier this year to Marin Cilic. He beat Victor Hanescu to claim the second title of his career. It's surprising to me that Wawrinka can't put a strong week of tennis together more often. He's really a force when he's playing his best. We'll see if he can build off this victory for the rest of the claycourt season, where he generally does well.
Looking ahead to Monte Carlo, there's really only one question: can Rafael Nadal continue his dominance on this surface for another year? He is 29-1 at this event, winning it the last five years, a record which is just unbelievable. Amazingly, there is another multiple titlist in the field, as Juan Carlos Ferrero won here in 2002 and 2003. Everyone else who's won this tournament is out of tennis, if you can believe that.
Nadal's road to another title won't be easy, but he could have gotten a tougher draw. After his first-round bye, he'll get likely get young gun Thiemo De Bakker, who has been anxious for this part of the season to come along, I imagine. But he probably wasn't hoping his second match at the first Masters event on his favorite surface would be against Rafael Nadal. Beyond that, Nadal could face Juan Monaco or Jarkko Nieminen, and then either Tsonga or Ferrero. It's a shame, but it's not unlikely that we'll see the two titlists playing each other in the quarters.
The field at this event is not as strong as it might be, as a number of top players are out injured, and several others are taking their free "skip a Masters event" card at this event. Only five of the top ten players are in attendance, so the top seed at this event is Novak Djokovic. He'll have to get through a pretty tough quarter in his own right. The final between Hanescu and Wawrinka gets repeated as a first-round match here, which is a bit unusual. Another first-round match to watch here is Gulbis-Chiudinelli. Djokovic's quarter also has Robredo facing off against a potentially dangerous Horacio Zeballos, as well Nalbandian and Youzhny in the mix.
Murray's quarter is arguably the weakest, but these smaller Masters events are pretty stacked. He'll open against either Bellucci or Kohlschreiber, and he'll need to up his level to beat either of those guys on red clay. After that, he may get Melzer, and is likely to find David Ferrer waiting for him in the quarters. I don't expect to see Ljubicic make it out of this quarter, but he's been a surprising figure as of late. This is the quarter that's most likely to have a shock contender make it out of, I'd expect.
The last quarter, featuring fourth-seed Marin Cilic, has some big hitters scattered in it as well. Cilic opens against Andreev, who loves the way the clay slows down theb all and lets him really get around and rip his forehand. He'll then face either Seppi, Montanes, or Baghdatis, all tough players. The bottom section of that quarter will likely see Gasquet, Verdasco, or Berdych come out of it. Cilic's career record on clay is only 22-21, so he can make some headway this season. For comparison, though, Murray is only 20-18. They need to really play up to their seeding at this tournament.
We'll see if order will be restored this week, or whether the run of incredible upsets is going to continue as we've seen in the first two Masters Series of the year. The smart money is on Nadal, as in fact, the odds are better for Nadal winning than any of the other players in the draw. But things have not been quite as promising in Nadal's game as they have been in years past, so we'll see if he can play at his usual level.
Sam Querrey ended the potential for a disaster to get any worse by beating Wayne Odesnik, but then he continued his poor performance in finals and lost to Juan Ignacio Chela. In his defense, clay has to be considered Querrey's worst surface, at least according to the way he plays, and it's also Chela's best. Still, Querrey's game really got loose in the final game of the last two sets, which is a shame, because he played well - for the most part. To be a really elite player, though, Sam's going to need to be more focused in finals. Credit to Chela, for winning his first title in three years.
In Casablanca, there was another winner who hadn't won a title in quite a few years. Stan Wawrinka had gone 0-5 since 2006, including a runner-up earlier this year to Marin Cilic. He beat Victor Hanescu to claim the second title of his career. It's surprising to me that Wawrinka can't put a strong week of tennis together more often. He's really a force when he's playing his best. We'll see if he can build off this victory for the rest of the claycourt season, where he generally does well.
Looking ahead to Monte Carlo, there's really only one question: can Rafael Nadal continue his dominance on this surface for another year? He is 29-1 at this event, winning it the last five years, a record which is just unbelievable. Amazingly, there is another multiple titlist in the field, as Juan Carlos Ferrero won here in 2002 and 2003. Everyone else who's won this tournament is out of tennis, if you can believe that.
Nadal's road to another title won't be easy, but he could have gotten a tougher draw. After his first-round bye, he'll get likely get young gun Thiemo De Bakker, who has been anxious for this part of the season to come along, I imagine. But he probably wasn't hoping his second match at the first Masters event on his favorite surface would be against Rafael Nadal. Beyond that, Nadal could face Juan Monaco or Jarkko Nieminen, and then either Tsonga or Ferrero. It's a shame, but it's not unlikely that we'll see the two titlists playing each other in the quarters.
The field at this event is not as strong as it might be, as a number of top players are out injured, and several others are taking their free "skip a Masters event" card at this event. Only five of the top ten players are in attendance, so the top seed at this event is Novak Djokovic. He'll have to get through a pretty tough quarter in his own right. The final between Hanescu and Wawrinka gets repeated as a first-round match here, which is a bit unusual. Another first-round match to watch here is Gulbis-Chiudinelli. Djokovic's quarter also has Robredo facing off against a potentially dangerous Horacio Zeballos, as well Nalbandian and Youzhny in the mix.
Murray's quarter is arguably the weakest, but these smaller Masters events are pretty stacked. He'll open against either Bellucci or Kohlschreiber, and he'll need to up his level to beat either of those guys on red clay. After that, he may get Melzer, and is likely to find David Ferrer waiting for him in the quarters. I don't expect to see Ljubicic make it out of this quarter, but he's been a surprising figure as of late. This is the quarter that's most likely to have a shock contender make it out of, I'd expect.
The last quarter, featuring fourth-seed Marin Cilic, has some big hitters scattered in it as well. Cilic opens against Andreev, who loves the way the clay slows down theb all and lets him really get around and rip his forehand. He'll then face either Seppi, Montanes, or Baghdatis, all tough players. The bottom section of that quarter will likely see Gasquet, Verdasco, or Berdych come out of it. Cilic's career record on clay is only 22-21, so he can make some headway this season. For comparison, though, Murray is only 20-18. They need to really play up to their seeding at this tournament.
We'll see if order will be restored this week, or whether the run of incredible upsets is going to continue as we've seen in the first two Masters Series of the year. The smart money is on Nadal, as in fact, the odds are better for Nadal winning than any of the other players in the draw. But things have not been quite as promising in Nadal's game as they have been in years past, so we'll see if he can play at his usual level.
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