Well, that was definitely one of the most exciting days of the open yet, and there are good odds that will be the peak of tournament, in terms of excitement. Out of six matches, three were absolute nail-biting thrillers - Wawrinka over Querrey in five, Verdasco over Ferrer in five, and Clijsters over Stosur in three.
Sam Querrey and Stan Wawrinka was the only match played entirely during the day, dealing with the worst of the wind. But both Sam and Stan were playing some of their best and gutsiest tennis. Sam was clearly the crowd's and the announcer's sentimental favorite, even if it seemed like Wawrinka's experience might see him through the match. And it did turn out that way, more or less - the key moments of the match came while Sam was serving to stay in the third and fifth sets, and Wawrinka turned up his aggression for one last push, and managed to break Sam both times. Querrey just wasn't as good at managing his energy and playing his best on the biggest points - the American had 15 break points to Wawrinka's 8, but Sam was only able to convert 3, while Stan managed to break Querrey's serve that essential fourth time. Chalk this one up to experience - Sam needs to be able to play those points better, because I think that over the course of the day, Querrey was actually the better player. But Wawrinka knew when and how to attack, and even though he was slightly hobbled and running on empty, he came up with a famous victory today. Here's hoping that Querrey will be inspired by this tight, tough loss, and not discouraged about how close he came.
The other men's match was even more brutal and exciting - as Fernando Verdasco came back from two sets to love down against countryman David Ferrer and won in a fifth set tiebreak, in a match that lasted four hours and 38 minutes. That's devastating for Ferrer, who was also up a break in the fifth set and a minibreak in the tiebreak. Verdasco closed the match with an unbelievable, looping forehand winner up the line off a very strong Ferrer volley at net. A really tough match from both guys, but Verdasco showed why his ranking is so high.
The Clijsters-Stosur match was also a tensely fought affair - but I didn't get to see much of it, I'll admit. I'm looking forward to the Clijsters-Venus semifinal though, I can promise you that.
The other matches on the men's side were less thrilling, as Youzhny closed out Robredo in four and Nadal (predictably) ousted Lopez in straight sets. Now Nadal and Verdasco will play a rematch of their epic semifinal in the Australian Open in 2009, one of the best matches of the year. And Wawrinka gets Youzhny - but the Russian is so much more well-rested physically and mentally, I'll be amazed if Wawrinka can pull another rabbit out of his hat.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the quarterfinals are underway on the men's side. Novak Djokovic gets Gael Monfils (I may have been confused last night and thought Monfils was going to play Robredo, despite being in the other half of the draw) and the pair have played some thrilling matches. A tough five-setter five years ago, here at the U.S. Open, and the final of the Paris indoor Masters last year. But Novak has won all four - and while Monfils has looked strong this week, he hasn't even played anybody who was seeded, yet. I have to think that the Djoker gets another win and gets back to the semis.
On the other hand, the Federer-Soderling match is a really appetizing contest. Fed had trounced Soderling repeatedly, and thoroughly, up until this year's French Open, where Soderling broke a number of the Swiss's streaks in one blow, including 12 matches straight against the top Swedish player. Now Federer gets a chance for revenge - last year, they played here in Flushing and Federer won, but it was tight towards the end. If Soderling can start off that way, he'll be in with chance. Federer has looked so sharp thus far, and Soderling actually dropped a set against Albert Montanes, which you just can't do if you want to be in the proper form. Fed is still the huge favorite, but it will be interesting. The most interesting Federer match to this point, by far.
On the women's side, I'm afraid to say that the quarterfinal matches are pretty dull. Wozniacki and Zvonareva should both cruise against their unheralded opponents, unless they suffer some injury or complete mental meltdown. Not much more to say about that.
Showing posts with label verdasco. Show all posts
Showing posts with label verdasco. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Friday, May 21, 2010
Week 20 Semifinals and French Open Qualifying
The week before a grand slam tournament is always a bit confused, as everyone's eyes are turned towards the big events starting next week. On the other hand, there's always a few tournaments taking place, not to mention the qualifying tournament for the grand slam. It's tough to say how motivated players are in the tournaments that take place the week before a major like this. Robin Soderling probably wanted to get a bit more experience on clay before he tried to equal his run to last year's final, and he certainly didn't expect to lose to Olivier Rochus in the second round. But he probably didn't want to play all the way through Saturday, either.
Rochus, by the way, would be a top five player if it weren't for his short stature. He can play some spectacular ball, as demonstrated in his wins this year over Soderling and Djokovic - but he's also lost to Richard Gasquet in the last three tournaments he's played. Gasquet is into the semis in Nice, and looks likely to face Fernando Verdasco. They're facing Starace and Leonardo Mayer, who have already notched big wins - Starace beat Kubot and Monfils, while Mayer beat Bellucci and Baghdatis. But they've got be worn out after those wins, and Gasquet and Verdasco have enough experience to come through, in my opinion.
In Dusseldorf, I am still a bit baffled by the format - some of the teams seem to have three players, others as many as five. It's not clear to me what to expect, but the results have been surprising. The American team, composed of Sam Querrey, John Isner, the Bryan Brothers, and Robby Ginepri, are just one win away from the finals. They beat Spain, the Czech Republic, and an Australian team that fielded Lleyton Hewitt. Impressive performances from the good ol' boys. They'll face either Argentina or France in the final, which should be an interesting match-up.
In any case, looking at the French Open, the qualifying tournament is into the final round, so everyone who's still standing needs only to win a single match to make it into the main draw. Here are some interesting things to look at it in the draw. There are a surprising number of Americans still alive - Ryler DeHeart, Jesse Witten, Michael Yani, Ryan Harrison, and Alex Bogomolov Jr. That's a pretty good ratio, so far. And I think that most of them have a good chance of getting through.
Other players who I think are likely to make it through are Somdev Devvarman, of India, and Jose Acasuso of Argentina. The most interesting match-up in the final round of qualifying is Simone Bolelli against Marsel Ilhan. Should be interesting to see how that shakes out. The only really notable loss was Gaston Gaudio, former champion, who lost pretty easily to Thiago Alves. It's a shame, since he just won a challenger event recently. There are a couple players I was surprised not to see in the draw - Donald Young and Grigor Dimitrov, to name two. But there's so much that could be going on with those guys, it's tough for me to say anything - I'm just sorry that I can't watch them in action.
There should be plenty of other action to enjoy, though. I am very excited.
Rochus, by the way, would be a top five player if it weren't for his short stature. He can play some spectacular ball, as demonstrated in his wins this year over Soderling and Djokovic - but he's also lost to Richard Gasquet in the last three tournaments he's played. Gasquet is into the semis in Nice, and looks likely to face Fernando Verdasco. They're facing Starace and Leonardo Mayer, who have already notched big wins - Starace beat Kubot and Monfils, while Mayer beat Bellucci and Baghdatis. But they've got be worn out after those wins, and Gasquet and Verdasco have enough experience to come through, in my opinion.
In Dusseldorf, I am still a bit baffled by the format - some of the teams seem to have three players, others as many as five. It's not clear to me what to expect, but the results have been surprising. The American team, composed of Sam Querrey, John Isner, the Bryan Brothers, and Robby Ginepri, are just one win away from the finals. They beat Spain, the Czech Republic, and an Australian team that fielded Lleyton Hewitt. Impressive performances from the good ol' boys. They'll face either Argentina or France in the final, which should be an interesting match-up.
In any case, looking at the French Open, the qualifying tournament is into the final round, so everyone who's still standing needs only to win a single match to make it into the main draw. Here are some interesting things to look at it in the draw. There are a surprising number of Americans still alive - Ryler DeHeart, Jesse Witten, Michael Yani, Ryan Harrison, and Alex Bogomolov Jr. That's a pretty good ratio, so far. And I think that most of them have a good chance of getting through.
Other players who I think are likely to make it through are Somdev Devvarman, of India, and Jose Acasuso of Argentina. The most interesting match-up in the final round of qualifying is Simone Bolelli against Marsel Ilhan. Should be interesting to see how that shakes out. The only really notable loss was Gaston Gaudio, former champion, who lost pretty easily to Thiago Alves. It's a shame, since he just won a challenger event recently. There are a couple players I was surprised not to see in the draw - Donald Young and Grigor Dimitrov, to name two. But there's so much that could be going on with those guys, it's tough for me to say anything - I'm just sorry that I can't watch them in action.
There should be plenty of other action to enjoy, though. I am very excited.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Madrid Third Round
In second round action in Madrid, there was really only one upset to speak of, and it wasn't even on the men's side! Serena Williams lost to Nadia Petrova, way out on court three. This is not a tremendous surprise, because Petrova started the year red hot, and may just now be getting her game back. But I also can't imagine that Serena was terribly excited about the situation, playing on court three as WTA world number one. Maybe she just wanted to head off to France and enjoy some more time off. At least, it was something that was on her mind. Her sister won, though.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Rome Semifinals
Down to four in Rome, and we could have had a Spanish rout. The first two matches of the day features upsets from Spanish players. Ferrer was just too solid for JW Tsonga, who will probably admit that clay is not his favorite surface. Ferrer, on the other hand, thrives on the stuff. So it wasn't a big surprise when Ferrer won a tight first set and then ran away with the second, delivering the first 6-1 set of the day.
Earlier, Verdasco and Djokovic had battled on for three sets, in the oddly-placed first match of the day. I'm not sure why they were first out, a position that nobody really relishes, because that was the highest-octane match-up. And it proved to be the tightest match of the day as well. Verdasco came out on top, as Djokovic just made too many errors, in the end. The top players (except for Nadal) are continuing to struggle, while Verdasco is now the hottest guy on tour.
Speaking of Nadal, his opponent came out playing the best I have ever seen him play. Wawrinka was an absolute revelation for the first nine games of the match. Up until 5-4 in the first set, Wawrinka had won two more points than Nadal despite having served only four games to Nadal's five. He had won 12 points on Nadal's serve and only given up one on his own. His whip-like backhand was cracking, and he looked like he really could challenge the king of clay. But when the pressure got to him, when he was serving to stay in the set at 4-5, Nadal upped his game and Wawrinka's dropped just enough. He broke, and the set was over. From there, the Swiss #2's spirit was broken. How can you play at your absolute highest level for that long and come away losing a set 6-4? He was never in the rest of the match, losing the second set 6-1, just like Tsonga.
The night match was an odd choice, but I think I may understand why. Ernests Gulbis and Feliciano Lopez had the least star power of any of the quarterfinals, but I think people are speculating that Gulbis might be the real deal. That this guy is bound for the top ten, and possibly Grand Slam glory. He may just do it, if he can play the way he's played this week - maybe if he leaves behind his strategy of choking on big points, though. He beat Lopez in a tight first set, then breezed through the second, in a pattern that was pretty familiar at this point. He won the third 6-1, as well.
I've always liked Gulbis for his game, but I am starting to really like his personality. He is honest in his interviews in a way that very few tennis players can manage to be, and he has a magnificent sense of humor. He reminds me a bit of Andy Roddick in that regard. After beating Federer, he was asked how he felt during his multiple match points. A normal tennis player might have said that he was nervous, that he felt tight, or that he was feeling the pressure, but Gulbis said he was "shitting his pants." Today, he had a set point in the first set that he duffed on an easy overhand. Asked about that after the match, he said, "If I miss that overhead and lose the set, I'm quitting tennis, because I just can't handle it." (I may be paraphrasing, but I think I got the gist of it)
But my favorite quote of his this week comes from a question he got about his sophomore slump. In his second year on tour after his quarterfinal at the French Open and semifinal run in Cincinatti in 2008, Gulbis accomplished approximately nothing on court. He flew around the world, partied a lot, and play some mediocre-to-horrible tennis. But when he was asked if he thought he wasted that time, he had this to say: "Sorry, I don’t agree. I have had a good life. I’m a young guy and I didn’t waste it. Maybe tennis-wise but tennis isn’t everything in life. It’s not all my life…… I was living more experiences, even bad experiences in the end are good. I know what I don’t need to do – to not succeed! I know how to do that perfectly! If you need some tips on how to not succeed…! Now I’m a little bit smarter and I think I’m doing better.”
I think this guy's stock is going straight up. If he really is focused on the game now, there's no telling how good he could get. And if he can settle down in the pressure situations and stop shitting his pants, I see no reason for him to be at the level of a Murray, Djokovic, or Del Potro. But he's a better interview than all of this guys, and good personalities are good for the sport.
That said, he is going to get absolutely murdered by Nadal tomorrow. Nadal isn't so far removed from being the wunderkind to forget what that's like, but he is far enough away to want to make sure everyone knows he's still the one that people should be worried about. If Gulbis even wins more than 5 games in tomorrow's match, I think that will really be an indication of his potential, but there's no way he's pulling off an upset.
The other semifinal between David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco depends primarily on one factor: whether or not Verdasco is starting to get tired. He's played so many matches in the last couple of weeks that - at some point - he's bound to get jaded. But he beat Ferrer just about two weeks ago, in a very tight match. This one could go either way, but I expect that the final result will rest on whether or not Verdasco is at 100%. In either case, I don't expect either of them to trouble Nadal. Maybe they'll get more than a game, though. Nadal hasn't been quite at the level he was during the Monte Carlo final this week. That said, he's been plenty strong to blow through his competition.
Earlier, Verdasco and Djokovic had battled on for three sets, in the oddly-placed first match of the day. I'm not sure why they were first out, a position that nobody really relishes, because that was the highest-octane match-up. And it proved to be the tightest match of the day as well. Verdasco came out on top, as Djokovic just made too many errors, in the end. The top players (except for Nadal) are continuing to struggle, while Verdasco is now the hottest guy on tour.
Speaking of Nadal, his opponent came out playing the best I have ever seen him play. Wawrinka was an absolute revelation for the first nine games of the match. Up until 5-4 in the first set, Wawrinka had won two more points than Nadal despite having served only four games to Nadal's five. He had won 12 points on Nadal's serve and only given up one on his own. His whip-like backhand was cracking, and he looked like he really could challenge the king of clay. But when the pressure got to him, when he was serving to stay in the set at 4-5, Nadal upped his game and Wawrinka's dropped just enough. He broke, and the set was over. From there, the Swiss #2's spirit was broken. How can you play at your absolute highest level for that long and come away losing a set 6-4? He was never in the rest of the match, losing the second set 6-1, just like Tsonga.
The night match was an odd choice, but I think I may understand why. Ernests Gulbis and Feliciano Lopez had the least star power of any of the quarterfinals, but I think people are speculating that Gulbis might be the real deal. That this guy is bound for the top ten, and possibly Grand Slam glory. He may just do it, if he can play the way he's played this week - maybe if he leaves behind his strategy of choking on big points, though. He beat Lopez in a tight first set, then breezed through the second, in a pattern that was pretty familiar at this point. He won the third 6-1, as well.
I've always liked Gulbis for his game, but I am starting to really like his personality. He is honest in his interviews in a way that very few tennis players can manage to be, and he has a magnificent sense of humor. He reminds me a bit of Andy Roddick in that regard. After beating Federer, he was asked how he felt during his multiple match points. A normal tennis player might have said that he was nervous, that he felt tight, or that he was feeling the pressure, but Gulbis said he was "shitting his pants." Today, he had a set point in the first set that he duffed on an easy overhand. Asked about that after the match, he said, "If I miss that overhead and lose the set, I'm quitting tennis, because I just can't handle it." (I may be paraphrasing, but I think I got the gist of it)
But my favorite quote of his this week comes from a question he got about his sophomore slump. In his second year on tour after his quarterfinal at the French Open and semifinal run in Cincinatti in 2008, Gulbis accomplished approximately nothing on court. He flew around the world, partied a lot, and play some mediocre-to-horrible tennis. But when he was asked if he thought he wasted that time, he had this to say: "Sorry, I don’t agree. I have had a good life. I’m a young guy and I didn’t waste it. Maybe tennis-wise but tennis isn’t everything in life. It’s not all my life…… I was living more experiences, even bad experiences in the end are good. I know what I don’t need to do – to not succeed! I know how to do that perfectly! If you need some tips on how to not succeed…! Now I’m a little bit smarter and I think I’m doing better.”
I think this guy's stock is going straight up. If he really is focused on the game now, there's no telling how good he could get. And if he can settle down in the pressure situations and stop shitting his pants, I see no reason for him to be at the level of a Murray, Djokovic, or Del Potro. But he's a better interview than all of this guys, and good personalities are good for the sport.
That said, he is going to get absolutely murdered by Nadal tomorrow. Nadal isn't so far removed from being the wunderkind to forget what that's like, but he is far enough away to want to make sure everyone knows he's still the one that people should be worried about. If Gulbis even wins more than 5 games in tomorrow's match, I think that will really be an indication of his potential, but there's no way he's pulling off an upset.
The other semifinal between David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco depends primarily on one factor: whether or not Verdasco is starting to get tired. He's played so many matches in the last couple of weeks that - at some point - he's bound to get jaded. But he beat Ferrer just about two weeks ago, in a very tight match. This one could go either way, but I expect that the final result will rest on whether or not Verdasco is at 100%. In either case, I don't expect either of them to trouble Nadal. Maybe they'll get more than a game, though. Nadal hasn't been quite at the level he was during the Monte Carlo final this week. That said, he's been plenty strong to blow through his competition.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Barcelona Wrap-up and Rome Preview
The Barcelona final has completed, and despite Nadal's withdrawal at the beginning of the week, a Spaniard still managed to win the title. Fernando Verdasco played solid clay-court tennis to upset last year's French Open finalist Robin Soderling. Soderling just couldn't quite find his range on his groundstrokes for an extended period of time, and Verdasco's movement was sufficiently better than the Swede's that he didn't have many other options. Kudos to Verdasco, who has been quietly putting together an excellent year. And to Soderling, who has made his third career clay-court final, and even though he couldn't seal the deal, he showed that he is still a force to be reckoned with on any surface.
It's always tough to make it to the final only to lose when you have to play the next week, because while Verdasco can build on the momentum he may have gotten from his second title of the year, Soderling played just as much tennis and didn't come away with a title. Both of them are in the draw at Rome, as well as most of the other top players, with a few notable exceptions.
Del Potro, Davydenko, Gonzalez, Robredo, Monfils, Stepanek, and Haas are all out with injury. That's a lot of players in the top 21 who can't play. Andy Roddick is also skipping the tournament, but not because of injury, just because he's decided he doesn't have any chance of playing on clay and doesn't want to bother. He can skip out on the fine he would normally receive because of his veteran status on the tour, but he can't get any more ranking points, and he is still going to get a big fat zero for this tournament, since it's going to count as one of the eight required Masters Series events, whether he plays it or not. And since he just dropped to number eight in the world after Soderling came in second at Barcelona, it is not unreasonable to consider the possibility of a top ten with no Americans as the hard court swing begins after Wimbledon.
In any case, we'll see what happens on that front as the year progresses. This week in Rome, the top players who are not hobbled are all there. Roger Federer is, of course, the top seed. He's still on a quest for his second tournament victory of the year, after his Australian Open title earlier in the year. He'll open up against the winner of one of the most enticing first-round match-ups, between a pair of hot-and-cold players: Baghdatis and Gulbis. Baghdatis beat Federer earlier in the year, so it would be interesting to see a rematch. After that, he may get Sam Querrey, if the American survives to the third round. In the quartefinals, Federer is likely to face either Cilic, Ljubicic, or Nicolas Almagro. I don't see any of these players upsetting the Fed, but I would have said that about everyone who's beaten him since January this year. So we'll just see what kind of form he brings to his first clay-court tournament of the year.
Nadal is the third seed here, and he ended up in Federer's half of the draw. That means it's possible that we'll have the first Nadal-Federer matchup outside of a final in a regular tournament (end of year tourney doesn't count) since Roland Garros in 2005. To do that, Rafael Nadal will have a handful of challenging players to make his way through. Kohlschreiber, Monaco, and Soderling are the likeliest candidates. But if he plays the way he played in Monte Carlo, none of these players poses a real threat. The other potential opponents he might find - Berdych, Wawrinka, Andreev, Hanescu, Melzer - are all fine players, but none of them have the pedigree that they need to seriously challenge the king of clay. I really hope to see a Nadal-Soderling quarterfinal, because I bet that Nadal will want to get some revenge for his loss at the French Open last year. If Nadal is healthy and fit, he's through to the semifinals. It's as simple as that.
Since the semifinal on that half of the draw is looking like it could be Federer-Nadal, the other half of the draw seems like it could be a competition for the chance to lose in the final. Murray is the fourth seed here in Rome, despite dropping down to five in the rankings this week behind Juan Martin Del Potro, who hasn't even been playing. He's also on a three-match losing streak, which is almost unbelievable for a top five player. I would be shocked if that trend continued here, because Murray opens against Andreas Seppi, and has a three-match win streak against the Italian. Once he gets a win under his belt, he might be able to put together his first good tournament since his run to the Aussie Open final. His quarter is not the strongest, with two exceptions - Ferrer and Ferrero are there, and Murray might find one in the third round and the other in the quarters. He could also see Tsonga there, who might open against Thiemo De Bakker, who beat him last week in Barcelona. Other than that, there aren't a lot of likely contenders in Murray's section, which is hopeful for him.
The final quarter of the draw features second seed Novak Djokovic seeded to meet Barcelona champion Fernando Verdasco in the quarters, assuming the Spaniard isn't burnt out after reaching a final and winning a tournament in consecutive weeks. There's an interesting match-up here between Mikhail Youzhny and Lleyton Hewitt, who has yet to get his year going, thus far. John Isner is also in this section, the top American (of two) in the draw, and he plays Horacio Zeballos in the first round. He may get Bellucci in the second round and Djokovic in the third - it's a tough ask for the big American, but at least he's not getting Federer. Still, it's a longshot to think that a US player can make a deep run here.
The clay court season has been relatively straightforward, with two Spaniards, an Argentine, and a Swiss player winning the four tournaments that have taken place so far. I think it's likely that a Spaniard or Swiss player will win this tournament, too.
It's always tough to make it to the final only to lose when you have to play the next week, because while Verdasco can build on the momentum he may have gotten from his second title of the year, Soderling played just as much tennis and didn't come away with a title. Both of them are in the draw at Rome, as well as most of the other top players, with a few notable exceptions.
Del Potro, Davydenko, Gonzalez, Robredo, Monfils, Stepanek, and Haas are all out with injury. That's a lot of players in the top 21 who can't play. Andy Roddick is also skipping the tournament, but not because of injury, just because he's decided he doesn't have any chance of playing on clay and doesn't want to bother. He can skip out on the fine he would normally receive because of his veteran status on the tour, but he can't get any more ranking points, and he is still going to get a big fat zero for this tournament, since it's going to count as one of the eight required Masters Series events, whether he plays it or not. And since he just dropped to number eight in the world after Soderling came in second at Barcelona, it is not unreasonable to consider the possibility of a top ten with no Americans as the hard court swing begins after Wimbledon.
In any case, we'll see what happens on that front as the year progresses. This week in Rome, the top players who are not hobbled are all there. Roger Federer is, of course, the top seed. He's still on a quest for his second tournament victory of the year, after his Australian Open title earlier in the year. He'll open up against the winner of one of the most enticing first-round match-ups, between a pair of hot-and-cold players: Baghdatis and Gulbis. Baghdatis beat Federer earlier in the year, so it would be interesting to see a rematch. After that, he may get Sam Querrey, if the American survives to the third round. In the quartefinals, Federer is likely to face either Cilic, Ljubicic, or Nicolas Almagro. I don't see any of these players upsetting the Fed, but I would have said that about everyone who's beaten him since January this year. So we'll just see what kind of form he brings to his first clay-court tournament of the year.
Nadal is the third seed here, and he ended up in Federer's half of the draw. That means it's possible that we'll have the first Nadal-Federer matchup outside of a final in a regular tournament (end of year tourney doesn't count) since Roland Garros in 2005. To do that, Rafael Nadal will have a handful of challenging players to make his way through. Kohlschreiber, Monaco, and Soderling are the likeliest candidates. But if he plays the way he played in Monte Carlo, none of these players poses a real threat. The other potential opponents he might find - Berdych, Wawrinka, Andreev, Hanescu, Melzer - are all fine players, but none of them have the pedigree that they need to seriously challenge the king of clay. I really hope to see a Nadal-Soderling quarterfinal, because I bet that Nadal will want to get some revenge for his loss at the French Open last year. If Nadal is healthy and fit, he's through to the semifinals. It's as simple as that.
Since the semifinal on that half of the draw is looking like it could be Federer-Nadal, the other half of the draw seems like it could be a competition for the chance to lose in the final. Murray is the fourth seed here in Rome, despite dropping down to five in the rankings this week behind Juan Martin Del Potro, who hasn't even been playing. He's also on a three-match losing streak, which is almost unbelievable for a top five player. I would be shocked if that trend continued here, because Murray opens against Andreas Seppi, and has a three-match win streak against the Italian. Once he gets a win under his belt, he might be able to put together his first good tournament since his run to the Aussie Open final. His quarter is not the strongest, with two exceptions - Ferrer and Ferrero are there, and Murray might find one in the third round and the other in the quarters. He could also see Tsonga there, who might open against Thiemo De Bakker, who beat him last week in Barcelona. Other than that, there aren't a lot of likely contenders in Murray's section, which is hopeful for him.
The final quarter of the draw features second seed Novak Djokovic seeded to meet Barcelona champion Fernando Verdasco in the quarters, assuming the Spaniard isn't burnt out after reaching a final and winning a tournament in consecutive weeks. There's an interesting match-up here between Mikhail Youzhny and Lleyton Hewitt, who has yet to get his year going, thus far. John Isner is also in this section, the top American (of two) in the draw, and he plays Horacio Zeballos in the first round. He may get Bellucci in the second round and Djokovic in the third - it's a tough ask for the big American, but at least he's not getting Federer. Still, it's a longshot to think that a US player can make a deep run here.
The clay court season has been relatively straightforward, with two Spaniards, an Argentine, and a Swiss player winning the four tournaments that have taken place so far. I think it's likely that a Spaniard or Swiss player will win this tournament, too.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Barcelona Semifinals
In the quartefinals, I figured that there were three matches which could potentially have upsets. In the end, only one of them did, but it was an impressive upset. While Verdasco breezed past Gulbis and Ferrer had as little trouble with Bellucci as Soderling had with Schwank, Tsonga found himself in a real dogfight with Dutch youngster Thiemo De Bakker.
De Bakker has now had his first career top-ten victory against Tsonga, which is an impressive followup after beating Juan Carlos Ferrero in the last round. Tsonga was among the least accomplished clay court players that he could have faced at this stage, though. His next opponent will be last year's French Open finalist, Robin Soderling, who has yet to really break a sweat over the course of this tournament. It will be a tough ask for De Bakker to keep his tournament rolling at this stage, but he has a chance. You have to favor the Swede, but we could be looking at one of the future's big clay court players.
The other semifinal is much more of a toss-up, between two veteran Spaniards, who are no strangers to the red clay. Verdasco and Ferrer have met on tour eight times thus far, with Verdasco leading the head to head 5-3, and 5-2 on clay courts. He's also won the last two meetings, so the numbers seem to favor "Hot Sauce." The only stat seemingly in Ferrer's favor is that he beat Verdasco here in Barcelona in 2005. It could go either way, though, as Ferrer's career record on clay is more impressive than Verdasco's.
No matter what, this will be an exciting final on Sunday.
De Bakker has now had his first career top-ten victory against Tsonga, which is an impressive followup after beating Juan Carlos Ferrero in the last round. Tsonga was among the least accomplished clay court players that he could have faced at this stage, though. His next opponent will be last year's French Open finalist, Robin Soderling, who has yet to really break a sweat over the course of this tournament. It will be a tough ask for De Bakker to keep his tournament rolling at this stage, but he has a chance. You have to favor the Swede, but we could be looking at one of the future's big clay court players.
The other semifinal is much more of a toss-up, between two veteran Spaniards, who are no strangers to the red clay. Verdasco and Ferrer have met on tour eight times thus far, with Verdasco leading the head to head 5-3, and 5-2 on clay courts. He's also won the last two meetings, so the numbers seem to favor "Hot Sauce." The only stat seemingly in Ferrer's favor is that he beat Verdasco here in Barcelona in 2005. It could go either way, though, as Ferrer's career record on clay is more impressive than Verdasco's.
No matter what, this will be an exciting final on Sunday.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Barcelona Quarterfinals
We're down to the last eight in Barcelona, and the field looks almost the way you'd expect at this stage. With Nadal out of the draw, it's actually interesting to see who might make it through to the finish. There have been a handful of upsets, and the remaining match-ups are mostly good.
The only one that I think will probably be uneven is the only match-up featuring a real pretender. Second seed Robin Soderling faces Eduardo Schwank, who had a good win over Fabio Fognini in the first round, but then beat a hobbled Hewitt and lucky loser Ivan Navarro. Expect the Swede to do well in that match. Schwank is only a few weeks removed from being fined for failing to give his best effort against Juan Ignacio Chela in Houston, which doesn't help his chances here.
The other three matches could all be competitive. While everyone was expecting a rematch from last week between Tsonga and Ferrero, young Danish spoiler Thiemo De Bakker upset the player with the most wins on clay this year, winning the first and third sets of his match against Ferrero in tiebreaks. Big win for De Bakker. Against Tsonga, he'll also have a tough time, but this is his favorite surface, and he may be ready to make his move.
The other two matches both feature young guns against seasoned veterans, as well. Ernests Gulbis has had an easy road to the quarterfinals, as both of the seeds in his section were upset before Gulbis in turn beat their vanquishers. He now faces Fernando Verdasco. Gulbis is still trying to build off the momentum he should have gained by winning his first title in Del Ray Beach and to recapture the magic during his breakout run at the French Open two years ago. A deep run here could do the trick.
The last match-up is between two players who have already demonstrated their bona fides on the crushed brick. David Ferrer and Tomaz Bellucci are playing for what would have been Nadal's semifinal spot, so they know what a chance they've been given. Ferrer won their only meeting, earlier this year, and I favor him again, but Bellucci has a shot.
Everyone left in the draw knows that they dodged a freight train with Nadal's withdrawal, so expect everyone to be eager to take advantage of this unexpected chance to win a title. And everyone left has been hot. Of the eight players left in the draw, only Tsonga, Schwank, and De Bakker have not already won a title this year. So this is a tough field to get through.
The only one that I think will probably be uneven is the only match-up featuring a real pretender. Second seed Robin Soderling faces Eduardo Schwank, who had a good win over Fabio Fognini in the first round, but then beat a hobbled Hewitt and lucky loser Ivan Navarro. Expect the Swede to do well in that match. Schwank is only a few weeks removed from being fined for failing to give his best effort against Juan Ignacio Chela in Houston, which doesn't help his chances here.
The other three matches could all be competitive. While everyone was expecting a rematch from last week between Tsonga and Ferrero, young Danish spoiler Thiemo De Bakker upset the player with the most wins on clay this year, winning the first and third sets of his match against Ferrero in tiebreaks. Big win for De Bakker. Against Tsonga, he'll also have a tough time, but this is his favorite surface, and he may be ready to make his move.
The other two matches both feature young guns against seasoned veterans, as well. Ernests Gulbis has had an easy road to the quarterfinals, as both of the seeds in his section were upset before Gulbis in turn beat their vanquishers. He now faces Fernando Verdasco. Gulbis is still trying to build off the momentum he should have gained by winning his first title in Del Ray Beach and to recapture the magic during his breakout run at the French Open two years ago. A deep run here could do the trick.
The last match-up is between two players who have already demonstrated their bona fides on the crushed brick. David Ferrer and Tomaz Bellucci are playing for what would have been Nadal's semifinal spot, so they know what a chance they've been given. Ferrer won their only meeting, earlier this year, and I favor him again, but Bellucci has a shot.
Everyone left in the draw knows that they dodged a freight train with Nadal's withdrawal, so expect everyone to be eager to take advantage of this unexpected chance to win a title. And everyone left has been hot. Of the eight players left in the draw, only Tsonga, Schwank, and De Bakker have not already won a title this year. So this is a tough field to get through.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Monte Carlo Final
Well, one half of the dream final made it to the party. Rafael Nadal dismissed David Ferrer without too much trouble. Surprisingly, Novak Djokovic was dismissed with similar ease by Fernando Verdasco. This is not the result that Novak was looking for, but I think that there may have been a mitigating factor in his defeat. This may sound outlandish, but stick with me for a moment. The ash which has been strewn into the atmosphere by the volcano in Iceland has gotten into the air over Europe, carried by wind currents. Airports have been affected, and presumably, the air quality on the continent has degraded as well.
Djokovic's breathing problems have been observed on many occasions, and it could be that this little difference in the air, coupled with Djokovic's own professed allergies over the past few days, may have affected his level of play in his semifinal appearance.
It's a shame, in a way, because even though Djokovic hadn't been playing well enough to really trouble Nadal, I give Verdasco almost no chance against his Spanish superior. Their overall head to head is 0-9 in favorite of the man from Mallorca. They've had a few really tight matches, including their memorable semifinal from the Australian Open in 2009, but that was on Verdasco's best surface, not Nadal's.
I just don't see how Verdasco is going to be able to trouble Nadal, here. The only thing working in his favor is how long Nadal has gone since winning a tournament, and how he's going for ATP history tomorrow by being the first player ever to win a tournament for six years running. But Verdasco has never been in a Master's Series final, before. So it's breaking new ground for him, as well. I expect Nadal to take the title, restore order to the tour, and make some history in the process.
Djokovic's breathing problems have been observed on many occasions, and it could be that this little difference in the air, coupled with Djokovic's own professed allergies over the past few days, may have affected his level of play in his semifinal appearance.
It's a shame, in a way, because even though Djokovic hadn't been playing well enough to really trouble Nadal, I give Verdasco almost no chance against his Spanish superior. Their overall head to head is 0-9 in favorite of the man from Mallorca. They've had a few really tight matches, including their memorable semifinal from the Australian Open in 2009, but that was on Verdasco's best surface, not Nadal's.
I just don't see how Verdasco is going to be able to trouble Nadal, here. The only thing working in his favor is how long Nadal has gone since winning a tournament, and how he's going for ATP history tomorrow by being the first player ever to win a tournament for six years running. But Verdasco has never been in a Master's Series final, before. So it's breaking new ground for him, as well. I expect Nadal to take the title, restore order to the tour, and make some history in the process.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Monte Carlo Semifinals
It looks like the topsy-turvy world of tennis we saw in the first two Masters Series events of the year may have calmed down somewhat. The final four standing in the first Masters tournament played on clay feature four very familiar faces, and four of the best clay-court players on tour. Fernando Verdasco is actually the weakest of the players remaining, since his game is a big more situated towards hard courts to the detriment of his clay court prowess. The other three have all had good results on hard courts, but their games are at their best when they're on red clay.
Verdasco faces Novak Djokovic, who is looking to pick up his clay-court season where he left it in 2009, before his amazing semifinal loss to Nadal at Rome. After that, which was one of the best matches of the year, he was hung over at Roland Garros and didn't play up to his potential. Prior to that, he had been the second-best clay court player on tour, after Nadal. So far, he's been playing very strong tennis, winning both of his matches on clay against the U.S. in Davis Cup, and yet to drop a set here in Monte Carlo, despite some tough opposition. You have to favor Djokovic in this match, as I believe he has both better shotmaking and a better chance to be solid from the baseline.
The other semifinal features David Ferrer facing off against Rafael Nadal, which will probably be even more one-sided. Verdasco and Ferrer are fine players, top-ten quality guys, no doubt. But they're playing against the two best guys on tour on this surface, and Ferrer in particular is facing the best player ever on clay. So it's a really tough ask to beat him. Nadal has only lost 16 matches on clay in his career, and that's against 181 wins and 25 titles. That's just mind-boggling.
It's almost a certainty that Nadal will face Djokovic in the final at this point, and that's an appetizing matchup, after the battles they had last year. Ferrer and Verdasco are out to spoil the party, but I don't give either of them a huge chance to do so. After some crazy and unexpected results in Miami and Indian Wells, it's maybe a nice thing to have the top two seeds meet in the final, here. But we'll just have to wait and see.
Verdasco faces Novak Djokovic, who is looking to pick up his clay-court season where he left it in 2009, before his amazing semifinal loss to Nadal at Rome. After that, which was one of the best matches of the year, he was hung over at Roland Garros and didn't play up to his potential. Prior to that, he had been the second-best clay court player on tour, after Nadal. So far, he's been playing very strong tennis, winning both of his matches on clay against the U.S. in Davis Cup, and yet to drop a set here in Monte Carlo, despite some tough opposition. You have to favor Djokovic in this match, as I believe he has both better shotmaking and a better chance to be solid from the baseline.
The other semifinal features David Ferrer facing off against Rafael Nadal, which will probably be even more one-sided. Verdasco and Ferrer are fine players, top-ten quality guys, no doubt. But they're playing against the two best guys on tour on this surface, and Ferrer in particular is facing the best player ever on clay. So it's a really tough ask to beat him. Nadal has only lost 16 matches on clay in his career, and that's against 181 wins and 25 titles. That's just mind-boggling.
It's almost a certainty that Nadal will face Djokovic in the final at this point, and that's an appetizing matchup, after the battles they had last year. Ferrer and Verdasco are out to spoil the party, but I don't give either of them a huge chance to do so. After some crazy and unexpected results in Miami and Indian Wells, it's maybe a nice thing to have the top two seeds meet in the final, here. But we'll just have to wait and see.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Monte Carlo Quarterfinals
There is no doubt that the clay season has at last begun in earnest; here we are at the last eight in Monte Carlo, and five of the players still standing are Spanish. They live on the red stuff, so you can hear the collective Spanish tennis nation suppressing their excitement at this early sign of what may be some serious dominance.
The only Spaniard who could have made it this far who lost today was Tommy Robredo, who lost a fairly routine match to David Nalbandian. Good for David, for following up his gutsy win over Mikhail Youzhny with a solid performance against an experienced clay-courter like Robredo. Nalbandian was just better on the big points, saving 6 out of Robredo's 7 break point chances. Don't expect Nalbandian's ranking to stay around 150 for very long - that's a promise. I expect him to be seeded by the U.S. Open. You heard it here first!
The only other non-Spanish players still in the draw are Novak Djokovic, who had a relatively easy time with Stan Wawrinka, and Phillip Kohlschreiber, who ousted his German compatriot Petzschner with even less difficulty and fanfare. For Kohlschreiber, it's great to reach a quarterfinal, but he just got lucky to find himself facing an addled Andy Murray and a pair of nobodies. His good run ends here, as tomorrow he'll face David Ferrer, and despite a close head to head - including a blowout win for the German on clay back in 2008 - I pick the bulldog here to win relatively easily. It was a nice run while it lasted, though.
Speaking of nice runs, Djokovic's opponent in the quarterfinals is David Nalbandian. As I mentioned above, Nalbandian's result has been great. Nobody's going to be surprised if he loses to the top seed at the tournament, but he is showing that he is still such a clean ball-striker and fluid mover that he has the capacity to beat anybody. If he can even make this match competitive, then there's no telling how well he can do this year. I still like Djokovic to get through it, though, but look for some spectacular ball-striking in this match from both sides.
The first all-Spanish quarterfinal features Fernando Verdasco and Albert Montanes. "Hot Sauce" is 3-0 against his lower-ranked opponent, and I think that streak continues through tomorrow. Not as much to say about this one.
On the other hand, the last quarterfinal is absolutely fascinating. The only two Monte Carlo titlists still playing the game face off in what is really disappointing to be happening this early in the tournament. Juan Carlos Ferrero has the most wins on clay of any player on tour so far this year. He already has a pair of titles on dirt since January, while Rafael Nadal's clay court pedigree needs no explanation. And in his first two matches, Nadal has lost 40 points. That's 40 points in 26 games. He's also lost 2 out of 26 games. That's not just good, that is terrifying.
This is an absolutely essential tournament for Nadal. He hasn't won a title since May 3 of last year. That's more than 11 months. It is his longest dry spell since winning his first title back way back in 2004. He has won Monte Carlo every year since 2005, and no one - no player in the open era - has won a tournament six years running. So he's gunning for history as well as trying to get his current game back on track, after a relatively poor year that saw him drop from the number two spot. If he can right the ship and win this title, then everyone will know that things will be back to normal. But if he doesn't... Nadal may never get back to the dominance he was capable of in the past few years.
It will be a huge ask for Ferrero to upset Nadal, considering how brutal, even cruel his first two victories were. But their last meeting (of 8) was a victory for Ferrero, and even on clay. But that may have been an anomaly. Nadal leads 6-2 in the overall head to head, and unless a different player shows up tomorrow than we saw yesterday or the day before, I don't see what Ferrero can do. He may have been the best player on clay so far this year, but Nadal is the best clay court player of all time, and he's looked like it so far this tournament.
The only Spaniard who could have made it this far who lost today was Tommy Robredo, who lost a fairly routine match to David Nalbandian. Good for David, for following up his gutsy win over Mikhail Youzhny with a solid performance against an experienced clay-courter like Robredo. Nalbandian was just better on the big points, saving 6 out of Robredo's 7 break point chances. Don't expect Nalbandian's ranking to stay around 150 for very long - that's a promise. I expect him to be seeded by the U.S. Open. You heard it here first!
The only other non-Spanish players still in the draw are Novak Djokovic, who had a relatively easy time with Stan Wawrinka, and Phillip Kohlschreiber, who ousted his German compatriot Petzschner with even less difficulty and fanfare. For Kohlschreiber, it's great to reach a quarterfinal, but he just got lucky to find himself facing an addled Andy Murray and a pair of nobodies. His good run ends here, as tomorrow he'll face David Ferrer, and despite a close head to head - including a blowout win for the German on clay back in 2008 - I pick the bulldog here to win relatively easily. It was a nice run while it lasted, though.
Speaking of nice runs, Djokovic's opponent in the quarterfinals is David Nalbandian. As I mentioned above, Nalbandian's result has been great. Nobody's going to be surprised if he loses to the top seed at the tournament, but he is showing that he is still such a clean ball-striker and fluid mover that he has the capacity to beat anybody. If he can even make this match competitive, then there's no telling how well he can do this year. I still like Djokovic to get through it, though, but look for some spectacular ball-striking in this match from both sides.
The first all-Spanish quarterfinal features Fernando Verdasco and Albert Montanes. "Hot Sauce" is 3-0 against his lower-ranked opponent, and I think that streak continues through tomorrow. Not as much to say about this one.
On the other hand, the last quarterfinal is absolutely fascinating. The only two Monte Carlo titlists still playing the game face off in what is really disappointing to be happening this early in the tournament. Juan Carlos Ferrero has the most wins on clay of any player on tour so far this year. He already has a pair of titles on dirt since January, while Rafael Nadal's clay court pedigree needs no explanation. And in his first two matches, Nadal has lost 40 points. That's 40 points in 26 games. He's also lost 2 out of 26 games. That's not just good, that is terrifying.
This is an absolutely essential tournament for Nadal. He hasn't won a title since May 3 of last year. That's more than 11 months. It is his longest dry spell since winning his first title back way back in 2004. He has won Monte Carlo every year since 2005, and no one - no player in the open era - has won a tournament six years running. So he's gunning for history as well as trying to get his current game back on track, after a relatively poor year that saw him drop from the number two spot. If he can right the ship and win this title, then everyone will know that things will be back to normal. But if he doesn't... Nadal may never get back to the dominance he was capable of in the past few years.
It will be a huge ask for Ferrero to upset Nadal, considering how brutal, even cruel his first two victories were. But their last meeting (of 8) was a victory for Ferrero, and even on clay. But that may have been an anomaly. Nadal leads 6-2 in the overall head to head, and unless a different player shows up tomorrow than we saw yesterday or the day before, I don't see what Ferrero can do. He may have been the best player on clay so far this year, but Nadal is the best clay court player of all time, and he's looked like it so far this tournament.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Monte Carlo Day 4
We're on to the third round in Monte Carlo, and all 16 remaining players are in action. You can tell that the draw here is not as strong as it had been at the last two Masters Series events, or as it will likely be at the majority of the Masters events later in the year. There are some big names there, but also a higher percentage of relatively middle-of-the-road talent to be making the last sixteen at a tournament of his stature.
Petzchner and Kohlschreiber, for example, is a match that nobody at the tournament is getting too excited about. Even the German contingent can't be too excited, as one of their players is going to have to lose. Kohlschreiber should be excited about his win over Andy Murray, but that didn't have too much to do with his play. Murray would have lost to just about anybody, yesterday. Still, he needs to take advantage of this chance to make a run.
The rest of the matches have at least one player who is top ten or at least former top ten, so there's more of interest elsewhere on the grounds. Marin Cilic faces a tough match against clay-court veteran Albert Montanes. Cilic is a better player, but Montanes has much more experience on this kind of surface, so that could work against him. It's a tough match for the young Croat, so we'll see how he can handle the pressure.
The other opening match is much more deserving of the situation, as Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych go up against each other, in a rematch of a quarterfinal from Miami. Berdych won that one in a tight match, but I think the Spaniard has the advantage on clay. This is match between two experienced and talented players, who had a recent, tight encounter. Could be one of tomorrow's better matches.
Nadal is up next on center court, and he got a cupcake of a second-round opponent. Michael Berrer is another German, but this is not the place for him. He's 5-12 on clay, so don't expect him to trouble Nadal. If Nadal plays even close to the way he played against De Bakker, he could win without even dropping that single game. The bookies have given Berrer 60:1 odds, which may actually be generous.
Ivan Ljubicic has his first real test tomorrow, against Spaniard David Ferrer. On any other surface, this would be a tight match, but the clay will slow down the Croat's serve and big groundstrokes, giving Ferrer more time to get to the balls. Ferrer has won the pair's last four meetings, and I expect he'll get the W tomorrow as well. Ljubicic just can't hit through another player here the way he did in Indian Wells.
There are a lot of Spaniards around the grounds, as you may have noticed. Tommy Robredo is another one, and he faces the comeback story of the tournament so far, David Nalbandian, who won a great match against Mikhail Youzhny in the last round. It's interesting, actually... the last two times this pair met was two and four years ago at this very tournament, in this very round. Robredo won in 2006 in a tight three-setter, and Nalbandian won in 2008 in dominant fashion. This is all in Nalbandian's hands, I would say. If he can hit the ball consistently and deep, Robredo just doesn't have the firepower to trouble him. But he's been off the court for so long, it's tough to stay solid for that long. This could be a good one, too.
Another Spaniard faces Frenchman JW Tsonga on center court after Nadal, as the only former champion in the field, Juan Carlos Ferrero, faces off against the big-hitting Frenchman. Despite the fact that his home Slam is on clay, Tsonga's game has always been better suited to the hardcourts of Australia or New York. Tsonga leads the head to head 2-0, but the pair has never played on clay, and Ferrero is the best claycourter of the year, thus far. Surprisingly, Tsonga's career record on clay is only 12-7. Just because of the surface, I may lean towards Ferrero, here. More of a toss-up than some other matches, though.
The last match of note is top seed Novak Djokovic against a great Swiss player - of course, I mean Stan "The Man" Wawrinka, who actually has the longest winning streak on tour, at the moment. He's coming off his first title in quite a few years, and riding quite a bit of confidence. Djokovic, despite looking solid in the first round, has every reason to be shaky. An upset here is unlikely, as Djokovic is 7-2 against Stan, and has won the last 6. But it could be tight, and Djokovic may not be able to keep his game together if he's challenged.
Petzchner and Kohlschreiber, for example, is a match that nobody at the tournament is getting too excited about. Even the German contingent can't be too excited, as one of their players is going to have to lose. Kohlschreiber should be excited about his win over Andy Murray, but that didn't have too much to do with his play. Murray would have lost to just about anybody, yesterday. Still, he needs to take advantage of this chance to make a run.
The rest of the matches have at least one player who is top ten or at least former top ten, so there's more of interest elsewhere on the grounds. Marin Cilic faces a tough match against clay-court veteran Albert Montanes. Cilic is a better player, but Montanes has much more experience on this kind of surface, so that could work against him. It's a tough match for the young Croat, so we'll see how he can handle the pressure.
The other opening match is much more deserving of the situation, as Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych go up against each other, in a rematch of a quarterfinal from Miami. Berdych won that one in a tight match, but I think the Spaniard has the advantage on clay. This is match between two experienced and talented players, who had a recent, tight encounter. Could be one of tomorrow's better matches.
Nadal is up next on center court, and he got a cupcake of a second-round opponent. Michael Berrer is another German, but this is not the place for him. He's 5-12 on clay, so don't expect him to trouble Nadal. If Nadal plays even close to the way he played against De Bakker, he could win without even dropping that single game. The bookies have given Berrer 60:1 odds, which may actually be generous.
Ivan Ljubicic has his first real test tomorrow, against Spaniard David Ferrer. On any other surface, this would be a tight match, but the clay will slow down the Croat's serve and big groundstrokes, giving Ferrer more time to get to the balls. Ferrer has won the pair's last four meetings, and I expect he'll get the W tomorrow as well. Ljubicic just can't hit through another player here the way he did in Indian Wells.
There are a lot of Spaniards around the grounds, as you may have noticed. Tommy Robredo is another one, and he faces the comeback story of the tournament so far, David Nalbandian, who won a great match against Mikhail Youzhny in the last round. It's interesting, actually... the last two times this pair met was two and four years ago at this very tournament, in this very round. Robredo won in 2006 in a tight three-setter, and Nalbandian won in 2008 in dominant fashion. This is all in Nalbandian's hands, I would say. If he can hit the ball consistently and deep, Robredo just doesn't have the firepower to trouble him. But he's been off the court for so long, it's tough to stay solid for that long. This could be a good one, too.
Another Spaniard faces Frenchman JW Tsonga on center court after Nadal, as the only former champion in the field, Juan Carlos Ferrero, faces off against the big-hitting Frenchman. Despite the fact that his home Slam is on clay, Tsonga's game has always been better suited to the hardcourts of Australia or New York. Tsonga leads the head to head 2-0, but the pair has never played on clay, and Ferrero is the best claycourter of the year, thus far. Surprisingly, Tsonga's career record on clay is only 12-7. Just because of the surface, I may lean towards Ferrero, here. More of a toss-up than some other matches, though.
The last match of note is top seed Novak Djokovic against a great Swiss player - of course, I mean Stan "The Man" Wawrinka, who actually has the longest winning streak on tour, at the moment. He's coming off his first title in quite a few years, and riding quite a bit of confidence. Djokovic, despite looking solid in the first round, has every reason to be shaky. An upset here is unlikely, as Djokovic is 7-2 against Stan, and has won the last 6. But it could be tight, and Djokovic may not be able to keep his game together if he's challenged.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Miami Quarterfinals - Day 2
One of the men's semifinals is set, and it was the one that everyone expected after Novak Djokovic lost in the second round to Olivier Rochus. Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal both breezed through their quarterfinal matches against potentially dangerous, big-hitting opponents. Roddick and Nadal were both just more solid than their opponents on the big points. Roddick broke Almagro three times and Nadal broke Tsonga four, while neither was broken. Tsonga had more chances against Nadal, so he'll feel like he had more of an opportunity. After going 0 for 8 as Tsonga did, Almagro can't feel too bad about missing both of his chances.
It will be interesting to see how things go in the Roddick-Nadal match-up on Friday. Roddick is the better server, Nadal the better returner, but their gameplans off the ground are not that different at this point. Nadal might just do it better. Roddick will have to be serving well and be able to take advantage of any lapse in Nadal's play during their semifinal meeting.
Based on the remaining competition in the other half of the draw, it seems likely that the winner of that semi will win the final as well, but who is to say? On the other side, with the quarterfinal matches still to be decided, we have Tomas Berdych against Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny against Robin Soderling.
Berdych and Verdasco should be an interesting match-up. Big forehand against big forehand, and since Verdasco is a lefty, I expect that there will be a lot of forehand to backhand exchanges while the backhander tries to run around and hit a forehand down the line. That is, if the other player doesn't smack a winner first. Berdych has the edge in experience at this level, and he has a better serve as well, but Verdasco is the better mover by a pretty good margin. It should be an interesting match, and tough to call. Berdych could easily still be so relieved from his win over Federer that he'll be hung over for this match.
The other quarter appears to be a lock for Robin Soderling. Youzhny is a talented player and a one-time slam semifinalist, back at the U.S. Open in 2006, but his career has been characterized in large part the same way that Soderling's was until last year - lots of talent, but unable to win the big matches. In fact, prior to the French Open last year, Youzhny and Soderling had very similar careers and places in the tennis hierarchy. The Swede, of course, has ascended pretty near the top, while Youzhny is still not quite at that level. As far as the actual match-up goes, I don't think Youzhny is as capable of handling Soderling's power off the ground. Youzhny can't have any lapses like he did against Wawrinka, earlier in the tournament, but he should be well-rested, since he got a retirement from Fish in the last round. The edge goes to Soderling here, no question, but Youzhny could make it interesting if he plays at his best.
The women's semifinals are also going to take place tomorrow, and I got three of my four picks right. The only spoiler was Marion Bartoli, who upset Yanina Wickmeyer to get a shot at Venus, in a rematch of the Wimbledon final from a few years ago. I predict the same result as before. The other semi is much more difficult to guess, as the remaining two Belgians square off. Clijsters beat Henin in their only match since their dual comebacks so far, but it was so tight and Justine has played a lot in the intervening time. Really, too close to call. Justine looked really solid against Wozniacki, but Clijsters knows Henin's game better and won't get as frustrated. That's a popcorn match, no question. And then the winner, in all likelihood, gets Venus? The only way to improve that lineup is to replace Bartoli with Serena, and that's the most star-studded and power-packed tennis semifinal you could have in the current game. So let's see how Bartoli can do in trying to spoil the dream final that everyone (especially the promoters) want to see.
It will be interesting to see how things go in the Roddick-Nadal match-up on Friday. Roddick is the better server, Nadal the better returner, but their gameplans off the ground are not that different at this point. Nadal might just do it better. Roddick will have to be serving well and be able to take advantage of any lapse in Nadal's play during their semifinal meeting.
Based on the remaining competition in the other half of the draw, it seems likely that the winner of that semi will win the final as well, but who is to say? On the other side, with the quarterfinal matches still to be decided, we have Tomas Berdych against Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny against Robin Soderling.
Berdych and Verdasco should be an interesting match-up. Big forehand against big forehand, and since Verdasco is a lefty, I expect that there will be a lot of forehand to backhand exchanges while the backhander tries to run around and hit a forehand down the line. That is, if the other player doesn't smack a winner first. Berdych has the edge in experience at this level, and he has a better serve as well, but Verdasco is the better mover by a pretty good margin. It should be an interesting match, and tough to call. Berdych could easily still be so relieved from his win over Federer that he'll be hung over for this match.
The other quarter appears to be a lock for Robin Soderling. Youzhny is a talented player and a one-time slam semifinalist, back at the U.S. Open in 2006, but his career has been characterized in large part the same way that Soderling's was until last year - lots of talent, but unable to win the big matches. In fact, prior to the French Open last year, Youzhny and Soderling had very similar careers and places in the tennis hierarchy. The Swede, of course, has ascended pretty near the top, while Youzhny is still not quite at that level. As far as the actual match-up goes, I don't think Youzhny is as capable of handling Soderling's power off the ground. Youzhny can't have any lapses like he did against Wawrinka, earlier in the tournament, but he should be well-rested, since he got a retirement from Fish in the last round. The edge goes to Soderling here, no question, but Youzhny could make it interesting if he plays at his best.
The women's semifinals are also going to take place tomorrow, and I got three of my four picks right. The only spoiler was Marion Bartoli, who upset Yanina Wickmeyer to get a shot at Venus, in a rematch of the Wimbledon final from a few years ago. I predict the same result as before. The other semi is much more difficult to guess, as the remaining two Belgians square off. Clijsters beat Henin in their only match since their dual comebacks so far, but it was so tight and Justine has played a lot in the intervening time. Really, too close to call. Justine looked really solid against Wozniacki, but Clijsters knows Henin's game better and won't get as frustrated. That's a popcorn match, no question. And then the winner, in all likelihood, gets Venus? The only way to improve that lineup is to replace Bartoli with Serena, and that's the most star-studded and power-packed tennis semifinal you could have in the current game. So let's see how Bartoli can do in trying to spoil the dream final that everyone (especially the promoters) want to see.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Indian Wells Weekend Wrap-up
We're into the third round at Indian Wells, and things are mostly going as expected. By that, I mean that there have been about as many surprising upsets as one usually finds in a tournament of this size. Three of the favorites on the women's side are already out - Justine Henin fell to Gisela Dulko, top seed Svetlana Kuznetsova fell to Carla Suarez Navarro, and Maria Sharapova lost to Jie Zheng. At this point, it's likely that the semifinals could be Clijsters-Azarenka and Dementieva-Wozinacki.
In Men's doubles, the Bryan Brothers have lost as well, losing to Berdych and Kohlschreiber in straights. They were the second seed, and the third and fourth seeds have also dropped; Paes and Dlouhy lost to Marc Lopez and Rafael Nadal, while Bhupathi and Mirnyi lost to Andreev and Korolev. Top seeds Nestor and Zimonjic have survived their only match thus far, and they'll be facing Andy Roddick and James Blake in the second round. If the trend of top singles players beating experienced doubles teams continues, the top seeds are in danger.
There's been nothing resembling that level of upset on the men's side, but there have been a handful of surprises. The highest-seeded casualty is Nikolay Davydenko, who was forced to withdraw with his wrist injury after he beat Ernests Gulbis. As a result, Viktor Troicki is into the round of sixteen after playing only a single game. He had a bye in the first round, Pablo Cuevas retired six points into the match, and now he gets a walkover from Nikolay Davydenko. Oddly enough, this matches Troicki's best ever effort at a Masters 1000 event. I don't give him much of a chance agsinst the winner of Berdych-Verdasco, though.
David Ferrer was also upset, but he was playing James Blake, so it wasn't as big an upset as it may have seemed. Blake was at his imperious best, and if he can keep up that level of play (no easy task) then he could make a deep run into this tournament. He'll face Nicolas Almagro next, who upset Ivo Karlovic in the second round. In fact, let me just do a quick rundown of other seeds to falter.
Marin Cilic was the first big upset of the tourney on the men's side, losing Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in his first match. He must have just been tired, as he did lead the tour in match wins on the year. Gilles Simon lost to Brian Dabul, but Simon hasn't been heard from too much as of late, so it's not the biggest shock in the world. Julien Benneteau lost to Mario Ancic, but Ancic is on the comeback trail as well, and he's a former top ten player.
In the top half of the draw, Monfils and Stepanek both lost, to Simon Gruel and Dudi Sela. Igor Andreev fell to American Michael Russell, and Janko Tipsarevic had to retire against Thiemo De Bakker. It's also worth noting that David Nalbandian lost to Jurgen Melzer, so it doesn't look like he was completely inspired by his performance at Davis Cup.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most exciting matches mostly feature the top seeds. Nadal plays Mario Ancic, as I mentioned. Ancic has not been at his best for years, but Nadal hasn't been at his best for the better part of a year, either. A win from Ancic would really announce his intentions to return to the top tier of the game. However, even when Nadal is not at his best, he can handle most players. If Ancic even makes this competitive, it will be an encouraging result.
Djokovic plays Philipp Kohlschreiber, against whom he has a 1-1 record, but Djokovic's one win was on this very court two years ago, and it was decisive, 3 and 2. It's tough to see that result changing too much tomorrow, but Djokovic went walkabout in the second set of his win against Mardy Fish, losing that set 6-0.
John Isner and Sam Querrey are playing in tomorrow's night match, in what is shaping up to be the next big American rivalry. It's not quite Agassi-Sampras - who apparently still aren't too fond of each other - but I think it will be fun to watch. Querrey is just a bit better moving around the court, and I give him the advantage in this match.
I'm also really looking forward to Verdasco-Berdych, who have a 3-4 head to head. This one's a real pick-em, and the winner should have relatively little trouble in the next round, giving them an almost guaranteed path to the quarterfinals, where they could meet a potentially ailing Nadal. Lots riding on this match.
In Men's doubles, the Bryan Brothers have lost as well, losing to Berdych and Kohlschreiber in straights. They were the second seed, and the third and fourth seeds have also dropped; Paes and Dlouhy lost to Marc Lopez and Rafael Nadal, while Bhupathi and Mirnyi lost to Andreev and Korolev. Top seeds Nestor and Zimonjic have survived their only match thus far, and they'll be facing Andy Roddick and James Blake in the second round. If the trend of top singles players beating experienced doubles teams continues, the top seeds are in danger.
There's been nothing resembling that level of upset on the men's side, but there have been a handful of surprises. The highest-seeded casualty is Nikolay Davydenko, who was forced to withdraw with his wrist injury after he beat Ernests Gulbis. As a result, Viktor Troicki is into the round of sixteen after playing only a single game. He had a bye in the first round, Pablo Cuevas retired six points into the match, and now he gets a walkover from Nikolay Davydenko. Oddly enough, this matches Troicki's best ever effort at a Masters 1000 event. I don't give him much of a chance agsinst the winner of Berdych-Verdasco, though.
David Ferrer was also upset, but he was playing James Blake, so it wasn't as big an upset as it may have seemed. Blake was at his imperious best, and if he can keep up that level of play (no easy task) then he could make a deep run into this tournament. He'll face Nicolas Almagro next, who upset Ivo Karlovic in the second round. In fact, let me just do a quick rundown of other seeds to falter.
Marin Cilic was the first big upset of the tourney on the men's side, losing Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in his first match. He must have just been tired, as he did lead the tour in match wins on the year. Gilles Simon lost to Brian Dabul, but Simon hasn't been heard from too much as of late, so it's not the biggest shock in the world. Julien Benneteau lost to Mario Ancic, but Ancic is on the comeback trail as well, and he's a former top ten player.
In the top half of the draw, Monfils and Stepanek both lost, to Simon Gruel and Dudi Sela. Igor Andreev fell to American Michael Russell, and Janko Tipsarevic had to retire against Thiemo De Bakker. It's also worth noting that David Nalbandian lost to Jurgen Melzer, so it doesn't look like he was completely inspired by his performance at Davis Cup.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most exciting matches mostly feature the top seeds. Nadal plays Mario Ancic, as I mentioned. Ancic has not been at his best for years, but Nadal hasn't been at his best for the better part of a year, either. A win from Ancic would really announce his intentions to return to the top tier of the game. However, even when Nadal is not at his best, he can handle most players. If Ancic even makes this competitive, it will be an encouraging result.
Djokovic plays Philipp Kohlschreiber, against whom he has a 1-1 record, but Djokovic's one win was on this very court two years ago, and it was decisive, 3 and 2. It's tough to see that result changing too much tomorrow, but Djokovic went walkabout in the second set of his win against Mardy Fish, losing that set 6-0.
John Isner and Sam Querrey are playing in tomorrow's night match, in what is shaping up to be the next big American rivalry. It's not quite Agassi-Sampras - who apparently still aren't too fond of each other - but I think it will be fun to watch. Querrey is just a bit better moving around the court, and I give him the advantage in this match.
I'm also really looking forward to Verdasco-Berdych, who have a 3-4 head to head. This one's a real pick-em, and the winner should have relatively little trouble in the next round, giving them an almost guaranteed path to the quarterfinals, where they could meet a potentially ailing Nadal. Lots riding on this match.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Indian Wells Preview
Well, the qualifiers are over, and my predictions about the qualifiers were not quite the best. It just goes to show that anything can happen, and that anyone who pretends to be knowledgeable about these sorts of things really won't do that much (if any better) than chance, most of the time. That said, let's take a look at the main draw and see how far off I can be this time.
This will be a fascinating month for Roger Federer. I keep waiting for his motivation to fade, but so far he has somehow managed to maintain his unbelievable talent for what is really an unprecedented amount of time. It was thought that he might miss this tournament due a lung infection, and while it looks like he'll play right now, who knows how well he'll do once the tournament gets underway. If he does play, he won't have the easiest road ahead of him. His first match should be a breeze, but after that, things get trickier. It's likely that he'll face Marcos Baghdatis in the third round, followed by a potential match-up with Radek Stepanek. In the quarters, he might find himself playing Andy Roddick, and if he gets through that match, then he'll find the other Andy in the semis. This is, of course, that there are no major upsets along the way. It's worth noting that Federer hasn't won Indian Wells or Miami since 2006.
It should also be interesting for Roddick. He has a relatively soft section of the draw, considering his low seeding at this point. He'll likely open against Yen-Hsun Lu, who he just beat a few weeks ago. He'll probably meet Janko Tipsarevic in the next round, but his subsequent opponent will be an interesting character, no matter what. Roddick is seeded to meet Gael Monfils, but that section also features the former top ten players Richard Gasquet and David Nalbandian. The other seed in that section is Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, but it's tough to see him making it through those other three players. And of course, after that, Roddick gets Federer in the quarters. The top American has been struggling with some niggling injuries as of late, but let's see if skipping Davis Cup has helped his chances here. Roddick, of course, hasn't even been to a Masters Series final since 2006.
Andy Murray has a couple of tricky players in his section of the draw, but nobody prior to the quarters. He may face Igor Andreev in the third round, and if the Russian can play the way he did against Federer at the Aussie Open while Murray plays too defensive, there could be an upset. But it's a tough ask. After that, though, Murray could face either Karlovic, Ferrer, Almagro, or James Blake, all of whom could theoretically pose a problem.
The Brit's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be the winner of the only two top ten players slated to meet in the round of 16. Robin Soderling and JW Tsonga are in that section of the draw, and they're the only real contenders to be found. Feliciano Lopez played well at the Aussie Open against Roddick, but it's not enough to get him to Andy Murray.
Moving to the bottom half of the draw, we find the top ten player who I think is most likely to lose his first-round match. Nikolay Davydenko, who has been dealing with some wrist problems, will likely face Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who is riding a hot streak. Either player that Davydenko faces first could beat him, actually, as his other potential opponent is Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli. Whoever wins between those three players will likely make it to the round of 16, as the other seed in that section is Viktor Troicki, who is a fine player but has faltered in the big moments throughout his career. To get the quarters, the winner will have to face either Tomas Berdych or Fernando Verdasco, and that match is basically a pick-em.
Whoever comes out of that tricky section of the draw will find another potentially random player waiting for them in the quarters, since the top seed there is also not likely to live up to his seeding. Nadal hasn't played since the Australian Open, and who knows how well he's feeling, physically. Nadal might face Mario Ancic, also back from another long injury break, in the third round. In the fourth round, though, if Nadal makes it that far, he'll face the winner of Sam Querrey and John Isner, who are unfortunate to be seeded to meet so early. Here's hoping they weren't too worn out by the trip back from Serbia, since they have a real shot at making a quarterfinal here.
In the last quarter of the draw, the players that are likely to make it to the quarters are much less in doubt. Marin Cilic will have to get through a bevy of clay-court specialists, including Carlos Moya, Tomaz Bellucci, Juan Monaco, and Juan Carlos Ferrero, in order to make the quarters. The wildcard in this section of the draw is Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer, who probably won't do anything, but I would love to see him on a show court.
Finally, the bottom section of the draw belongs to newly-minted world number 2 Novak Djokovic. He has some tough players in his section, including Gilles Simon, Phillip Kohlschreiber, and Ivan Ljubicic, who nearly beat Djokovic in Doha. This section of the draw also has three strong Americans - Mardy Fish, who is fighting fit, as well as teenager Ryan Harrison and his doubles partner Taylor Dent, who are unfortunately playing each other in the first round. Still, it's tough to see Djokovic losing before the quarters.
Regardless of what happens, I'm looking forward to the tennis. Lots of great stories taking place, heading into the Indian Wells-Miami double feature, this year. Play starts tomorrow!
This will be a fascinating month for Roger Federer. I keep waiting for his motivation to fade, but so far he has somehow managed to maintain his unbelievable talent for what is really an unprecedented amount of time. It was thought that he might miss this tournament due a lung infection, and while it looks like he'll play right now, who knows how well he'll do once the tournament gets underway. If he does play, he won't have the easiest road ahead of him. His first match should be a breeze, but after that, things get trickier. It's likely that he'll face Marcos Baghdatis in the third round, followed by a potential match-up with Radek Stepanek. In the quarters, he might find himself playing Andy Roddick, and if he gets through that match, then he'll find the other Andy in the semis. This is, of course, that there are no major upsets along the way. It's worth noting that Federer hasn't won Indian Wells or Miami since 2006.
It should also be interesting for Roddick. He has a relatively soft section of the draw, considering his low seeding at this point. He'll likely open against Yen-Hsun Lu, who he just beat a few weeks ago. He'll probably meet Janko Tipsarevic in the next round, but his subsequent opponent will be an interesting character, no matter what. Roddick is seeded to meet Gael Monfils, but that section also features the former top ten players Richard Gasquet and David Nalbandian. The other seed in that section is Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, but it's tough to see him making it through those other three players. And of course, after that, Roddick gets Federer in the quarters. The top American has been struggling with some niggling injuries as of late, but let's see if skipping Davis Cup has helped his chances here. Roddick, of course, hasn't even been to a Masters Series final since 2006.
Andy Murray has a couple of tricky players in his section of the draw, but nobody prior to the quarters. He may face Igor Andreev in the third round, and if the Russian can play the way he did against Federer at the Aussie Open while Murray plays too defensive, there could be an upset. But it's a tough ask. After that, though, Murray could face either Karlovic, Ferrer, Almagro, or James Blake, all of whom could theoretically pose a problem.
The Brit's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be the winner of the only two top ten players slated to meet in the round of 16. Robin Soderling and JW Tsonga are in that section of the draw, and they're the only real contenders to be found. Feliciano Lopez played well at the Aussie Open against Roddick, but it's not enough to get him to Andy Murray.
Moving to the bottom half of the draw, we find the top ten player who I think is most likely to lose his first-round match. Nikolay Davydenko, who has been dealing with some wrist problems, will likely face Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who is riding a hot streak. Either player that Davydenko faces first could beat him, actually, as his other potential opponent is Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli. Whoever wins between those three players will likely make it to the round of 16, as the other seed in that section is Viktor Troicki, who is a fine player but has faltered in the big moments throughout his career. To get the quarters, the winner will have to face either Tomas Berdych or Fernando Verdasco, and that match is basically a pick-em.
Whoever comes out of that tricky section of the draw will find another potentially random player waiting for them in the quarters, since the top seed there is also not likely to live up to his seeding. Nadal hasn't played since the Australian Open, and who knows how well he's feeling, physically. Nadal might face Mario Ancic, also back from another long injury break, in the third round. In the fourth round, though, if Nadal makes it that far, he'll face the winner of Sam Querrey and John Isner, who are unfortunate to be seeded to meet so early. Here's hoping they weren't too worn out by the trip back from Serbia, since they have a real shot at making a quarterfinal here.
In the last quarter of the draw, the players that are likely to make it to the quarters are much less in doubt. Marin Cilic will have to get through a bevy of clay-court specialists, including Carlos Moya, Tomaz Bellucci, Juan Monaco, and Juan Carlos Ferrero, in order to make the quarters. The wildcard in this section of the draw is Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer, who probably won't do anything, but I would love to see him on a show court.
Finally, the bottom section of the draw belongs to newly-minted world number 2 Novak Djokovic. He has some tough players in his section, including Gilles Simon, Phillip Kohlschreiber, and Ivan Ljubicic, who nearly beat Djokovic in Doha. This section of the draw also has three strong Americans - Mardy Fish, who is fighting fit, as well as teenager Ryan Harrison and his doubles partner Taylor Dent, who are unfortunately playing each other in the first round. Still, it's tough to see Djokovic losing before the quarters.
Regardless of what happens, I'm looking forward to the tennis. Lots of great stories taking place, heading into the Indian Wells-Miami double feature, this year. Play starts tomorrow!
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Week 6 Wrap-Up, Week 7 Preview
There were several wild matches to wrap up in the past weekend of tennis, and a couple enticing tournaments on the horizon, so I won't waste any time.
I was at the San Jose tournament for the quarterfinals, which turned out to be an excellent day of tennis. The semifinal between Roddick and Querrey turned out to be the match of the week, though. Roddick won in three sets despite never even getting a break point against Querrey's serve. Tough loss for the young American, but he's shown that he's clearly recovered from last year's injury and ready to be a force again this year. He emphasized that fact by winning the doubles title with Mardy Fish.
Unfortunately, all that tennis turned out to be a little much for Andy Roddick, who lost the final to Verdasco, who had a much easier road to the final. While Roddick was facing Querrey and Berdych, the Spaniard only had to get through Uzbek Denis Istomin and 19-year old Lithuanian Ricardas Berankis. Not really equal competition on each side of the draw, in the end. Still, a strong performance from Roddick, who hopefully won't be too exhausted to perform well in Washington (more on that in a moment).
The finals at the other two tournaments this week weren't quite at the same level, even though though they did also each feature a player who had spent all of his energy just getting to that stage.
In Rotterdam, Youzhny had to retire against Soderling after the Russian had upset Djokovic in the semis, while Soderling notched his first big win of the year over the top-ranked Russian who had been the hottest three-set player on the tour, Nikolay Davydenko. Good for Soderling, who started off the year in poor form, to get things back on track.
In Costa do Sauipe, Ferrero breezed past Lukas Kubot, who apparently used up everything he had to beat Igor Andreev in the semifinals. Kubot managed only one game against the top seed. I was expecting Ferrero to face local favorite Tomaz Bellucci in the semis, but Bellucci was upset by another Brazilian player, the journeyman pro Ricardo Mello. Alas, Mello couldn't mount recapture that magic in the semis.
Looking ahead to next week's action, the next red clay tournament of the year in Buenos Aires features many familiar faces from the past two weeks. Ferrero is back, but Bellucci is taking the week off. The top seed this week is Spaniard David Ferrer, and there are also a handful of fresh faces, including wildcards Carlos Moya and Gaston Gaudio. Gasquet is supposed to be back in action this week, as well as the wayward Argentine, returning to play on home soil at least, David Nalbandian. He's been out of action for almost a year, so I'm eager to see how he does here.
In Marseille, last week's champion Soderling is back in action, as is finalist Youzhny, assuming he can recover from whatever forced him to retire. Tsonga, Monfils, and Benneteau make up the home-crowd seeds, and they're joined by Marcos Baghdatis and Tommy Robredo. Baggy is having a great year, but still hasn't quite reached his top ten form. Robredo hasn't done much of anything since winning the Hopman Cup over Andy Murray. The draw is filled out with a bevy of French and European players, including Arnaud Clement, the Rochus brothers, and Denis Istomin, who flew over from San Jose.
Speaking of San Jose, Roddick and Verdasco are the top seeds once again in Memphis, but who knows how tired they'll be. Surprisingly, Roddick plays unseeded James Blake in his first-round match, and James just had to fly back from the Netherlands. Why are these guys jetting around so much? Verdasco's opener isn't much easier, as he faces young, big-hitting Frenchman Jeremy Chardy. The other seeds in the draw are mostly familiar faces, except for John Isner, who's back in action after his great start to the year.
Isner opens against American teen and qualifier Ryan Harrison. Surprisingly, Harrison qualified while "The Donald" Young fell short. There are a ton of interesting first-round matches here, though. Querrey plays Rajeev Ram, who beat him at the Newport final last year. Radek Stepanek opens against Kevin Anderson, Jarkko Nieminen plays Dudi Sela, Benjamin Becker plays Ivo Karlovic, and Xavier Malisse plays Tommy Haas. That's a lot of matches between players of very comparable skill levels, as of late. There could be some firecrackers in there. And if Roddick and Verdasco are tired from their play in San Jose, this tournament could bust wide open.
I was at the San Jose tournament for the quarterfinals, which turned out to be an excellent day of tennis. The semifinal between Roddick and Querrey turned out to be the match of the week, though. Roddick won in three sets despite never even getting a break point against Querrey's serve. Tough loss for the young American, but he's shown that he's clearly recovered from last year's injury and ready to be a force again this year. He emphasized that fact by winning the doubles title with Mardy Fish.
Unfortunately, all that tennis turned out to be a little much for Andy Roddick, who lost the final to Verdasco, who had a much easier road to the final. While Roddick was facing Querrey and Berdych, the Spaniard only had to get through Uzbek Denis Istomin and 19-year old Lithuanian Ricardas Berankis. Not really equal competition on each side of the draw, in the end. Still, a strong performance from Roddick, who hopefully won't be too exhausted to perform well in Washington (more on that in a moment).
The finals at the other two tournaments this week weren't quite at the same level, even though though they did also each feature a player who had spent all of his energy just getting to that stage.
In Rotterdam, Youzhny had to retire against Soderling after the Russian had upset Djokovic in the semis, while Soderling notched his first big win of the year over the top-ranked Russian who had been the hottest three-set player on the tour, Nikolay Davydenko. Good for Soderling, who started off the year in poor form, to get things back on track.
In Costa do Sauipe, Ferrero breezed past Lukas Kubot, who apparently used up everything he had to beat Igor Andreev in the semifinals. Kubot managed only one game against the top seed. I was expecting Ferrero to face local favorite Tomaz Bellucci in the semis, but Bellucci was upset by another Brazilian player, the journeyman pro Ricardo Mello. Alas, Mello couldn't mount recapture that magic in the semis.
Looking ahead to next week's action, the next red clay tournament of the year in Buenos Aires features many familiar faces from the past two weeks. Ferrero is back, but Bellucci is taking the week off. The top seed this week is Spaniard David Ferrer, and there are also a handful of fresh faces, including wildcards Carlos Moya and Gaston Gaudio. Gasquet is supposed to be back in action this week, as well as the wayward Argentine, returning to play on home soil at least, David Nalbandian. He's been out of action for almost a year, so I'm eager to see how he does here.
In Marseille, last week's champion Soderling is back in action, as is finalist Youzhny, assuming he can recover from whatever forced him to retire. Tsonga, Monfils, and Benneteau make up the home-crowd seeds, and they're joined by Marcos Baghdatis and Tommy Robredo. Baggy is having a great year, but still hasn't quite reached his top ten form. Robredo hasn't done much of anything since winning the Hopman Cup over Andy Murray. The draw is filled out with a bevy of French and European players, including Arnaud Clement, the Rochus brothers, and Denis Istomin, who flew over from San Jose.
Speaking of San Jose, Roddick and Verdasco are the top seeds once again in Memphis, but who knows how tired they'll be. Surprisingly, Roddick plays unseeded James Blake in his first-round match, and James just had to fly back from the Netherlands. Why are these guys jetting around so much? Verdasco's opener isn't much easier, as he faces young, big-hitting Frenchman Jeremy Chardy. The other seeds in the draw are mostly familiar faces, except for John Isner, who's back in action after his great start to the year.
Isner opens against American teen and qualifier Ryan Harrison. Surprisingly, Harrison qualified while "The Donald" Young fell short. There are a ton of interesting first-round matches here, though. Querrey plays Rajeev Ram, who beat him at the Newport final last year. Radek Stepanek opens against Kevin Anderson, Jarkko Nieminen plays Dudi Sela, Benjamin Becker plays Ivo Karlovic, and Xavier Malisse plays Tommy Haas. That's a lot of matches between players of very comparable skill levels, as of late. There could be some firecrackers in there. And if Roddick and Verdasco are tired from their play in San Jose, this tournament could bust wide open.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
4th Round at Wimbledon 2009
The best day in Tennis: the rounds of 32 at the All-England Club. All of the remaining 64 men and women will be in action after a day off on the middle Sunday. Since the first week didn't present us with too many big upsets, we start off the business end of the tournament with some excellent matches.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Murray the next number one?
Murray beat Federer in three sets, but it wasn't as tight as it sounds. It was tight in the first set, which Fed won in a tie-break, then he started spraying errors off his forehand and the Scot won the second and third sets 6-2, 6-2. Much more surprisingly, Andy Roddick was able to beat Gael Monfils. Apparently, Roddick's steady high-level of play was enough to get him past an intermittently spectacular Frenchman.
However, Roddick will need to be more than steady to beat Murray in the final. He'll have to play out of his mind, serving at least 70% and having a lot of success at the net. I really think Roddick's best chance is if Murray's back trouble, which seemed to be a problem for him in the Federer match, keeps him from playing at the top of his game.
Props to Nadal for continuing in the doubles, and eventually winning the Doha title. He could have pulled out and headed to Melbourne for some extra AO training. And beating Nestor & Zimonjic? That's a serious pair of doubles players, right there. Maybe Nadal could add a doubles Grand Slam to his title list?
The Brisbane final is also set - Stepanek against Verdasco? Weird. I don't know who to pick in this one, since I would have bet against both of them in the semis. They're both very talented players who can just go away for no good reason, so it will go to whoever holds it together.
In Chennai, the hometown hero Devvarman continues his improbable run, managing to hold Karlovic to only 10 aces and beating him in two sets. He's up against Schuettler, who is also impressing. I'd love to see the wildcard continue on. The other semifinal is Cilic-Granollers, and this should really go to Cilic. It would be interesting if Schuettler could win, since he hasn't even been to an ATP final since 2004.
Kudos to Elena Dementieva, who won the first women's title of the season. Maybe she'll get back to her first slam final since 2004 this year. It was a real shame to see Mauresmo retire against Bartoli trailing 4-0 in the first set. That does not bode well for the Frenchwoman's chances at a career Renaissance this year. Azarenka-Bartoli should be an intriguing final.
However, Roddick will need to be more than steady to beat Murray in the final. He'll have to play out of his mind, serving at least 70% and having a lot of success at the net. I really think Roddick's best chance is if Murray's back trouble, which seemed to be a problem for him in the Federer match, keeps him from playing at the top of his game.
Props to Nadal for continuing in the doubles, and eventually winning the Doha title. He could have pulled out and headed to Melbourne for some extra AO training. And beating Nestor & Zimonjic? That's a serious pair of doubles players, right there. Maybe Nadal could add a doubles Grand Slam to his title list?
The Brisbane final is also set - Stepanek against Verdasco? Weird. I don't know who to pick in this one, since I would have bet against both of them in the semis. They're both very talented players who can just go away for no good reason, so it will go to whoever holds it together.
In Chennai, the hometown hero Devvarman continues his improbable run, managing to hold Karlovic to only 10 aces and beating him in two sets. He's up against Schuettler, who is also impressing. I'd love to see the wildcard continue on. The other semifinal is Cilic-Granollers, and this should really go to Cilic. It would be interesting if Schuettler could win, since he hasn't even been to an ATP final since 2004.
Kudos to Elena Dementieva, who won the first women's title of the season. Maybe she'll get back to her first slam final since 2004 this year. It was a real shame to see Mauresmo retire against Bartoli trailing 4-0 in the first set. That does not bode well for the Frenchwoman's chances at a career Renaissance this year. Azarenka-Bartoli should be an intriguing final.
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