While most of the tennis world's attention is drawn to the West coast of the United States for the BNP Paribas Masters Series event at Indian Wells, there is another tournament going on this week with more marquee players than you would find at your average 250-tier event on any given week on the ATP Tour.
While the challenger circuit is mostly the minor leagues of the tennis world, filled with young hopefuls on their way up and aging veterans hoping to get back to their former glory, there are a handful of challenger tournaments that have carved out, through hard work and a little bit of luck, a really nice niche in the tennis calender.
The BMW Tennis Championship in Sunrise, Florida is one of those challenger tournaments. Situated during the second week of the 1.5-week long Indian Wells tourney, the Sunrise tournament is situated in close proximity to the next Masters Series event in Miami, which makes it a frequent stop for relatively highly-ranked players who didn't play at Indian Wells (or who didn't play for very long) in order to get some momentum for the next Masters event.
Last year, Robin Soderling was having a middling start to the season. He was 5-5 after losing to Nicolas Lapentti in the second round in Indian Wells, but he didn't commit to Sunrise in time to make the main draw. So he played through qualifying, into a challenger event, and ended up beating Gilles Muller, Rainer Schuettler, Feliciano Lopez, and Tomas Berdych on his way to taking the title. It's not often you see a challenger tournament with a field that strong.
And while Soderling wasn't able to build on his momentum right away, (he lost in the second round at Miami as well, to Robert Kendrick) his year took a turn starting at the French Open. After his miraculous run to the final, in which he became the first player ever to beat Rafael Nadal on the red clay of Roland Garros, he made the round of 16 at Wimbledon and the quarters at the US Open, losing to Federer both times. He also won the tournament in Bastaad and made the semifinals at the end of year championships.
This year, he's in the top ten and still in action at Indian Wells, so he won't be defending his title at Sunrise. But there is still a loaded field. One of the opening matches features Richard Gasquet against Gilles Simon, two players who have shown glimpses of their ability, but haven't been able to put it all together lately. Radek Stepanek is also there, who it was just announced is marrying the retiring Nicole Vaidisova this summer. His year has stalled out, engagement to a beautiful 20-year old notwithstanding. After making the final in Brisbane and losing to Andy Roddick, he has won only one match in his next three tournaments.
There are a handful of players in action at the 2010 BMW Tennis Championship who have lingered on the edge of obscurity, those players who always seem to be threatening to make a big move but never quite able to do it. Last year, Robin Soderling was in that camp. This year, he's playing J.W. Tsonga for a likely shot at Andy Murray in the querterfinals at Indian Wells. Maybe someone else will make that jump into the top tier, this year.
Showing posts with label stepanek. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stepanek. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Week 1 Champions and Week 2 Preview
The remaining two finals from the first week of the 2010 ATP season have been contested. In Chennai, defending champion Marin Cilic beat Stan Wawrinka in two tiebreak sets. It was a close match, and really In Brisbane, Andy Roddick beat defending champion Radek Stepanek in two tiebreaks. Really, there was very little to choose between these two players. Cilic served at 57%, Wawrinka at 59%. They both won 61% of their second-serve points. They both converted two break chances. The only difference, in the end, was that Cilic won 72% of points on first serve, while Wawrinka won only 62%. Still, a close match, and both players should be encouraged by their performance this week.
In Brisbane, the match between Roddick and Stepanek went to two tiebreaks as well, but the second-set was absolutely bizarre. Stepanek went away and Roddick went to a 5-1 lead thanks to a pair of double faults on break points by Radek, only to be broken twice while serving for the match. Roddick's play didn't drop a great deal (it did drop, though) but Stepanek raised his game and changed his strategy to frustrate and bamboozle Roddick.
In the tiebreak, Roddick made it to 6-2, and then lost five consecutive match points to get back to six-all. He had another match point at 8-7, when Stepanek put himself out of his misery and double-faulted again. This has to be disappointing for both players. Roddick has to be shaken that he couldn't close out after getting two huge leads, and Stepanek has to be upset that he couldn't take advantage of Roddick being off his game and clearly in a bad mental state. That said, a win is a win, and Roddick will be happy to lift his first trophy since early last year. Roddick now has the longest active streak of years with at least one tournament win.
Looking ahead to the second week of the season, it's a tale of two tiers. In Sydney and Auckland, which both hosted women's events last week, there are ATP tournaments which feature a good list of mid-range talents. But all of the top players are either taking the week off or playing in the Kooyong exhibition. No top ten player is in official action, this week.
Of course, that's not to say that there won't be some exciting tennis. In Sydney, Monfils, Wawrinka, Berdych, Hewitt and Querrey lead the field and are the favorites to make it deep into the tournament, but there are a handful of dangerous floaters in the draw. Mardy Fish opens against Carsten Ball, while Baghdatis starts against Nick Lindahl. Fish will have his hands full, but Baggy shouldn't have any trouble getting through his wildcard opponent. Chennai semifinalist Dudi Sela is also in the draw, as is Frenchman Richard Gasquet, who opens against Feliciano Lopez.
In Auckland, the top seed is Tommy Robredo, fresh off his Hopman Cup win, who is joined by three other Spaniards to make up the top four: Ferrer, Ferrero, and Almagro. The seeds also feature Monaco and Montanes, so you might be forgiven for thinking that this could be a claycourt tournament. It's a pretty wide open draw, and there's a chance for some lower-ranked players to make a deep run.
John Isner opens against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, which should be an interesting match-up. Isner will surely be hoping to start his year as well as he ended last year, and will be looking to forget his modest results at the Hopman Cup last week. Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli and Tomaz Bellucci face each other in the first round as well, for the privilege of facing the winner of the best first-round match-up of the week.
I'm speaking, of course, about David Nalbandian's return to competitive tennis, in which he faces German Phillip Kohlschreiber. It will be fascinating to see how Nalbandian is feeling. Has he recovered from his surgery? Has he worked on his fitness in the off-season? Will his unearthly timing and shotmaking have survived his long layoff? Only time will tell.
Kooyong is an interesting story this week. Federer opted not to play at the last minute, and it's still not clear who is going to take up that last spot. The other players in the field are Djokovic, Del Potro, Gonzalez, Tsonga, Soderling, Haas, and Verdasco. That's a strong field, no question. But it doesn't have Roddick, Murray, Nadal, Davydenko, or Federer. The draw won't be released until the 12th, so they'll have to fill in the last spot by then. I'm interested to see what the organizers do to deal with this unusual situation.
On the women's side, there's another sharp difference in the field between the two tournaments going on this week. Sydney features eight of the top nine players in the world, with only Venus Williams not present. In Hobart, on the other hand, the top seed is 27th-ranked Annabel Medina-Garrigues. Since the winner in Sydney takes home nearly $100K, while the Hobart champion gets only $37K, this may not be a surprise. But this also means that most people are going to be watching Sydney.
Play started earlier than I thought it would, and Russians Kuznetsova and Dementieva have already moved on to the second round. It's really tough to see anyone but the top seeds making it to the semis or final here, since the top of the field is just so tough. It will be interesting to watch Dinara Safina and see if she can recover from how dismally she finished up 2009, or if that was just the first step in a precipitous decline. I hope to see her bounce back and even break through to win a slam in 2010.
In Brisbane, the match between Roddick and Stepanek went to two tiebreaks as well, but the second-set was absolutely bizarre. Stepanek went away and Roddick went to a 5-1 lead thanks to a pair of double faults on break points by Radek, only to be broken twice while serving for the match. Roddick's play didn't drop a great deal (it did drop, though) but Stepanek raised his game and changed his strategy to frustrate and bamboozle Roddick.
In the tiebreak, Roddick made it to 6-2, and then lost five consecutive match points to get back to six-all. He had another match point at 8-7, when Stepanek put himself out of his misery and double-faulted again. This has to be disappointing for both players. Roddick has to be shaken that he couldn't close out after getting two huge leads, and Stepanek has to be upset that he couldn't take advantage of Roddick being off his game and clearly in a bad mental state. That said, a win is a win, and Roddick will be happy to lift his first trophy since early last year. Roddick now has the longest active streak of years with at least one tournament win.
Looking ahead to the second week of the season, it's a tale of two tiers. In Sydney and Auckland, which both hosted women's events last week, there are ATP tournaments which feature a good list of mid-range talents. But all of the top players are either taking the week off or playing in the Kooyong exhibition. No top ten player is in official action, this week.
Of course, that's not to say that there won't be some exciting tennis. In Sydney, Monfils, Wawrinka, Berdych, Hewitt and Querrey lead the field and are the favorites to make it deep into the tournament, but there are a handful of dangerous floaters in the draw. Mardy Fish opens against Carsten Ball, while Baghdatis starts against Nick Lindahl. Fish will have his hands full, but Baggy shouldn't have any trouble getting through his wildcard opponent. Chennai semifinalist Dudi Sela is also in the draw, as is Frenchman Richard Gasquet, who opens against Feliciano Lopez.
In Auckland, the top seed is Tommy Robredo, fresh off his Hopman Cup win, who is joined by three other Spaniards to make up the top four: Ferrer, Ferrero, and Almagro. The seeds also feature Monaco and Montanes, so you might be forgiven for thinking that this could be a claycourt tournament. It's a pretty wide open draw, and there's a chance for some lower-ranked players to make a deep run.
John Isner opens against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, which should be an interesting match-up. Isner will surely be hoping to start his year as well as he ended last year, and will be looking to forget his modest results at the Hopman Cup last week. Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli and Tomaz Bellucci face each other in the first round as well, for the privilege of facing the winner of the best first-round match-up of the week.
I'm speaking, of course, about David Nalbandian's return to competitive tennis, in which he faces German Phillip Kohlschreiber. It will be fascinating to see how Nalbandian is feeling. Has he recovered from his surgery? Has he worked on his fitness in the off-season? Will his unearthly timing and shotmaking have survived his long layoff? Only time will tell.
Kooyong is an interesting story this week. Federer opted not to play at the last minute, and it's still not clear who is going to take up that last spot. The other players in the field are Djokovic, Del Potro, Gonzalez, Tsonga, Soderling, Haas, and Verdasco. That's a strong field, no question. But it doesn't have Roddick, Murray, Nadal, Davydenko, or Federer. The draw won't be released until the 12th, so they'll have to fill in the last spot by then. I'm interested to see what the organizers do to deal with this unusual situation.
On the women's side, there's another sharp difference in the field between the two tournaments going on this week. Sydney features eight of the top nine players in the world, with only Venus Williams not present. In Hobart, on the other hand, the top seed is 27th-ranked Annabel Medina-Garrigues. Since the winner in Sydney takes home nearly $100K, while the Hobart champion gets only $37K, this may not be a surprise. But this also means that most people are going to be watching Sydney.
Play started earlier than I thought it would, and Russians Kuznetsova and Dementieva have already moved on to the second round. It's really tough to see anyone but the top seeds making it to the semis or final here, since the top of the field is just so tough. It will be interesting to watch Dinara Safina and see if she can recover from how dismally she finished up 2009, or if that was just the first step in a precipitous decline. I hope to see her bounce back and even break through to win a slam in 2010.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Finals Week 1 - Top Players Stumble!
As several of the first tournaments of the week have already been decided (two finals remain to be played), the most interesting thing about the outcomes is how two of the top players in the world seemed to have their victories firmly in-hand, only to let them slip away.
In the Hopman Cup, Andy Murray and Laura Robson were playing Spain for the championship. Before play started, it was easy to guess that Laura Robson would drop her singles match, but then Murray would win his and the pair would win their doubles point. That was how it had gone for most of the week. Laura Robson had lost all of her singles matches, while Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez had yet to drop a set. So when Robson came out on fire and beat Martinez Sanchez in straights, the victory for Great Britain was all but assured.
And then, Murray came out and took the first set from Tommy Robredo 6-1. Imagine the surprise and disappointment that Murray must have felt as he dropped the last two sets, and then proceeded to lose the mixed doubles in two as well. What seemed like a sure thing somehow managed to slip away, in a surprising loss for the Brit. Since this was his only warm-up to the Australian Open (I believe), it's unfortunate that he has to go in on that sort of a defeat.
Another player who isn't going to be thrilled with the result of his last match before the Australian Open was Rafael Nadal. He faced Nikolay Davydenko, who had beaten Federer in the semifinals, and took the first set from the Russian in imperious fashion, losing only one point on serve and breaking Davydenko there times. After that, the match started. The second set went to a tiebreak and Nadal had two match points, but Davydenko pulled it out 10-8. Nadal was then up a break in the decider, but Davydenko leveled and then took the match.
Davydenko becomes one of four people to beat Nadal and Federer in the same tournament, and is riding the longest winning streak on tour. After years of leading the second tier of top players, he seems to have finally reached his proper place among the elite. After his win at the 2009 year end championships in London, and then this display in Doha, Nikolay has to be among the favorites in the Australian Open. There's no reason he can't win, if he can continue this run.
In Brisbane, there was another cracker of a match between Belgians Clijsters and Henin, which went to a third-set tiebreak. While Henin also had match points, Clijsters came out on top, just barely. Considering that this is her first match back after 20 months of retirement and Clijsters is the most recent slam winner on the WTA tour, this is an exciting omen for Henin's comeback. Unfortunately, she has withdrawn from next week's tournament in Sydney. Regardless, she's demonstrated that she's ready to make a run at the Aussie Open, and I'm no sure no one wants to see her in their section of the draw.
The other final in Brisbane will feature Radek Stepanek, who breezed passed a physically-uncomfortable Gael Monfils, and Andy Roddick, who had a much tougher time against Tomas Berdych. Despite having not dropped serve all week long, Roddick was broken in the first game of the match, and then again in the second. He lost the first set 6-1, while failing to convert on four break points.
In the second set, he tightened up his game, raising his first serve winning percentage from 50 to 76 and breaking one time in six tries. After evening the match, Roddick pulled himself together even further. In the final set, he won 82% of his first serve points and 86% on his second. He broke again, and managed to edge out a tough win in three.
In the final, we'll have to the battle of Radek versus Roddick, which is always exciting. They've played six times, with the American winning five, but Stepanek beat Roddick in a tough semifinal in San Jose last year. It should be an exciting match, and I know that Andy would like to get his first title in his first outing this season, but Stepanek is eager to complete his first successful title defense.
In Chennai, last year title-winner is also in the final again, facing Swiss number two Stanislas Wawrinka. Stan "the Man" is 4-0 against Cilic, but they haven't played since 2008, and he has matured a great deal in that time. It should be a fine match, as well.
One last note - Yanina Wickmayer has finished her successful rejoinder to her suspended suspension, by beating top seed Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. Also, that turns out to have been a fine use of a wildcard. The draws are out for next week's tournaments, and I hope to take a look at those tomorrow.
In the Hopman Cup, Andy Murray and Laura Robson were playing Spain for the championship. Before play started, it was easy to guess that Laura Robson would drop her singles match, but then Murray would win his and the pair would win their doubles point. That was how it had gone for most of the week. Laura Robson had lost all of her singles matches, while Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez had yet to drop a set. So when Robson came out on fire and beat Martinez Sanchez in straights, the victory for Great Britain was all but assured.
And then, Murray came out and took the first set from Tommy Robredo 6-1. Imagine the surprise and disappointment that Murray must have felt as he dropped the last two sets, and then proceeded to lose the mixed doubles in two as well. What seemed like a sure thing somehow managed to slip away, in a surprising loss for the Brit. Since this was his only warm-up to the Australian Open (I believe), it's unfortunate that he has to go in on that sort of a defeat.
Another player who isn't going to be thrilled with the result of his last match before the Australian Open was Rafael Nadal. He faced Nikolay Davydenko, who had beaten Federer in the semifinals, and took the first set from the Russian in imperious fashion, losing only one point on serve and breaking Davydenko there times. After that, the match started. The second set went to a tiebreak and Nadal had two match points, but Davydenko pulled it out 10-8. Nadal was then up a break in the decider, but Davydenko leveled and then took the match.
Davydenko becomes one of four people to beat Nadal and Federer in the same tournament, and is riding the longest winning streak on tour. After years of leading the second tier of top players, he seems to have finally reached his proper place among the elite. After his win at the 2009 year end championships in London, and then this display in Doha, Nikolay has to be among the favorites in the Australian Open. There's no reason he can't win, if he can continue this run.
In Brisbane, there was another cracker of a match between Belgians Clijsters and Henin, which went to a third-set tiebreak. While Henin also had match points, Clijsters came out on top, just barely. Considering that this is her first match back after 20 months of retirement and Clijsters is the most recent slam winner on the WTA tour, this is an exciting omen for Henin's comeback. Unfortunately, she has withdrawn from next week's tournament in Sydney. Regardless, she's demonstrated that she's ready to make a run at the Aussie Open, and I'm no sure no one wants to see her in their section of the draw.
The other final in Brisbane will feature Radek Stepanek, who breezed passed a physically-uncomfortable Gael Monfils, and Andy Roddick, who had a much tougher time against Tomas Berdych. Despite having not dropped serve all week long, Roddick was broken in the first game of the match, and then again in the second. He lost the first set 6-1, while failing to convert on four break points.
In the second set, he tightened up his game, raising his first serve winning percentage from 50 to 76 and breaking one time in six tries. After evening the match, Roddick pulled himself together even further. In the final set, he won 82% of his first serve points and 86% on his second. He broke again, and managed to edge out a tough win in three.
In the final, we'll have to the battle of Radek versus Roddick, which is always exciting. They've played six times, with the American winning five, but Stepanek beat Roddick in a tough semifinal in San Jose last year. It should be an exciting match, and I know that Andy would like to get his first title in his first outing this season, but Stepanek is eager to complete his first successful title defense.
In Chennai, last year title-winner is also in the final again, facing Swiss number two Stanislas Wawrinka. Stan "the Man" is 4-0 against Cilic, but they haven't played since 2008, and he has matured a great deal in that time. It should be a fine match, as well.
One last note - Yanina Wickmayer has finished her successful rejoinder to her suspended suspension, by beating top seed Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. Also, that turns out to have been a fine use of a wildcard. The draws are out for next week's tournaments, and I hope to take a look at those tomorrow.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Scheduling is a mess...
... when you've got tennis taking place in places that are ten hours apart. In my current time zone, the tennis in Auckland starts at around 6 PM, Brisbane starts at 6:30, Chennai starts at 6 AM, and Doha starts at 7. It's tough to figure out how to watch all of that and still find time to sleep! I'm glad I caught as much as I did yesterday, though.
Brisbane is where all the action is. Justine Henin's comeback continues, and she's into the semifinals, where she'll play Ana Ivanovic, which is definitely the dream match-up for the bottom half of the draw. Both players have been doing well, and even though she may be rusty, I'm inclined to give this one to Justine based on experience. She managed to pull out a tight one against Melinda Czink, squandering five (possible six) match points before winning in a third-set tiebreaker.
Another player who squeaked through in a third-set breaker was James Blake, who saved three match points against Marc Gicquel before winning 10-8. Blake played very well, and was a bit more patient than I'd seen him be in these types of tight matches. He was still blowing winners by Gicquel whenever he gets the chance, but he took the time to set up more points than I'm used to seeing. That's a positive for Blake. His first real test comes tonight, though, when he plays Frenchman Gael Monfils. I don't care how late it is, I'm staying up to watch it, since it's a match between two of the best shotmakers in the game. And Monfils has been struggling in his first two rounds, playing six sets and four tiebreaks.
Another high-quality match in Brisbane was Andy Roddick against Carsten Ball. Ball did not play like a challenger-regular whose ranking has never dipped inside the top hundred. For twelve games in the first set and then seven games in the second, there was very little to choose between these two players. However, Roddick showed his variety and his experience in the tiebreak, winning all seven points, and then breaking Ball in the second set before serving out the match. Despite the loss, it should be an encouraging performance for Carsten. No doubt we'll see the big-serving lefty again.
I have to say that the matches in the other three tournaments taking place this week haven't really been at the same level. Most of the players in Chennai and Doha cruised over the past few days, particularly the big three in Doha. However, two of them face their first challenge in the next round, potentially. Federer goes up against Ernests Gulbis, and Davydenko takes on Ivo Karlovic. I expect that both of them will come through those matches, but there's an outside chance of an upset in each.
There were a few matches that had the potential to be exciting, but then didn't deliver. After beating DeHeart in the first round, Younes El Aynaoui excited everyone about his potential to play Nadal, but his body just didn't hold up, and he was vanquished easily by Belgian qualifier Steve Darcis. In Chennai, local hopeful beat former top-ten player Rainer Schuettler in the first round, only to be shut down by Janko Tipsarevic 2 and 1.
American Wayne Odesnik looked to be challenging defending champ Radek Stepanek in Brisbane as well, breaking the wily Czech and serving for the first set. But Odesnik seemed to tweak something in his back, and from that point on, he was never in the match. Additionally, he seemed to repeatedly forget that Brisbane didn't have the hawkeye challenge system in play, and had to be reminded by the umpire twice.
As we move into the final rounds of this first week of the season, I have to wonder how I got by without tennis for two months.
Brisbane is where all the action is. Justine Henin's comeback continues, and she's into the semifinals, where she'll play Ana Ivanovic, which is definitely the dream match-up for the bottom half of the draw. Both players have been doing well, and even though she may be rusty, I'm inclined to give this one to Justine based on experience. She managed to pull out a tight one against Melinda Czink, squandering five (possible six) match points before winning in a third-set tiebreaker.
Another player who squeaked through in a third-set breaker was James Blake, who saved three match points against Marc Gicquel before winning 10-8. Blake played very well, and was a bit more patient than I'd seen him be in these types of tight matches. He was still blowing winners by Gicquel whenever he gets the chance, but he took the time to set up more points than I'm used to seeing. That's a positive for Blake. His first real test comes tonight, though, when he plays Frenchman Gael Monfils. I don't care how late it is, I'm staying up to watch it, since it's a match between two of the best shotmakers in the game. And Monfils has been struggling in his first two rounds, playing six sets and four tiebreaks.
Another high-quality match in Brisbane was Andy Roddick against Carsten Ball. Ball did not play like a challenger-regular whose ranking has never dipped inside the top hundred. For twelve games in the first set and then seven games in the second, there was very little to choose between these two players. However, Roddick showed his variety and his experience in the tiebreak, winning all seven points, and then breaking Ball in the second set before serving out the match. Despite the loss, it should be an encouraging performance for Carsten. No doubt we'll see the big-serving lefty again.
I have to say that the matches in the other three tournaments taking place this week haven't really been at the same level. Most of the players in Chennai and Doha cruised over the past few days, particularly the big three in Doha. However, two of them face their first challenge in the next round, potentially. Federer goes up against Ernests Gulbis, and Davydenko takes on Ivo Karlovic. I expect that both of them will come through those matches, but there's an outside chance of an upset in each.
There were a few matches that had the potential to be exciting, but then didn't deliver. After beating DeHeart in the first round, Younes El Aynaoui excited everyone about his potential to play Nadal, but his body just didn't hold up, and he was vanquished easily by Belgian qualifier Steve Darcis. In Chennai, local hopeful beat former top-ten player Rainer Schuettler in the first round, only to be shut down by Janko Tipsarevic 2 and 1.
American Wayne Odesnik looked to be challenging defending champ Radek Stepanek in Brisbane as well, breaking the wily Czech and serving for the first set. But Odesnik seemed to tweak something in his back, and from that point on, he was never in the match. Additionally, he seemed to repeatedly forget that Brisbane didn't have the hawkeye challenge system in play, and had to be reminded by the umpire twice.
As we move into the final rounds of this first week of the season, I have to wonder how I got by without tennis for two months.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
4th Round at Wimbledon 2009
The best day in Tennis: the rounds of 32 at the All-England Club. All of the remaining 64 men and women will be in action after a day off on the middle Sunday. Since the first week didn't present us with too many big upsets, we start off the business end of the tournament with some excellent matches.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Murray the next number one?
Murray beat Federer in three sets, but it wasn't as tight as it sounds. It was tight in the first set, which Fed won in a tie-break, then he started spraying errors off his forehand and the Scot won the second and third sets 6-2, 6-2. Much more surprisingly, Andy Roddick was able to beat Gael Monfils. Apparently, Roddick's steady high-level of play was enough to get him past an intermittently spectacular Frenchman.
However, Roddick will need to be more than steady to beat Murray in the final. He'll have to play out of his mind, serving at least 70% and having a lot of success at the net. I really think Roddick's best chance is if Murray's back trouble, which seemed to be a problem for him in the Federer match, keeps him from playing at the top of his game.
Props to Nadal for continuing in the doubles, and eventually winning the Doha title. He could have pulled out and headed to Melbourne for some extra AO training. And beating Nestor & Zimonjic? That's a serious pair of doubles players, right there. Maybe Nadal could add a doubles Grand Slam to his title list?
The Brisbane final is also set - Stepanek against Verdasco? Weird. I don't know who to pick in this one, since I would have bet against both of them in the semis. They're both very talented players who can just go away for no good reason, so it will go to whoever holds it together.
In Chennai, the hometown hero Devvarman continues his improbable run, managing to hold Karlovic to only 10 aces and beating him in two sets. He's up against Schuettler, who is also impressing. I'd love to see the wildcard continue on. The other semifinal is Cilic-Granollers, and this should really go to Cilic. It would be interesting if Schuettler could win, since he hasn't even been to an ATP final since 2004.
Kudos to Elena Dementieva, who won the first women's title of the season. Maybe she'll get back to her first slam final since 2004 this year. It was a real shame to see Mauresmo retire against Bartoli trailing 4-0 in the first set. That does not bode well for the Frenchwoman's chances at a career Renaissance this year. Azarenka-Bartoli should be an intriguing final.
However, Roddick will need to be more than steady to beat Murray in the final. He'll have to play out of his mind, serving at least 70% and having a lot of success at the net. I really think Roddick's best chance is if Murray's back trouble, which seemed to be a problem for him in the Federer match, keeps him from playing at the top of his game.
Props to Nadal for continuing in the doubles, and eventually winning the Doha title. He could have pulled out and headed to Melbourne for some extra AO training. And beating Nestor & Zimonjic? That's a serious pair of doubles players, right there. Maybe Nadal could add a doubles Grand Slam to his title list?
The Brisbane final is also set - Stepanek against Verdasco? Weird. I don't know who to pick in this one, since I would have bet against both of them in the semis. They're both very talented players who can just go away for no good reason, so it will go to whoever holds it together.
In Chennai, the hometown hero Devvarman continues his improbable run, managing to hold Karlovic to only 10 aces and beating him in two sets. He's up against Schuettler, who is also impressing. I'd love to see the wildcard continue on. The other semifinal is Cilic-Granollers, and this should really go to Cilic. It would be interesting if Schuettler could win, since he hasn't even been to an ATP final since 2004.
Kudos to Elena Dementieva, who won the first women's title of the season. Maybe she'll get back to her first slam final since 2004 this year. It was a real shame to see Mauresmo retire against Bartoli trailing 4-0 in the first set. That does not bode well for the Frenchwoman's chances at a career Renaissance this year. Azarenka-Bartoli should be an intriguing final.
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