We're up to the Madrid semifinals. It looks like order is pretty close to being restored. Both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are both in the semifinals of a tournament for the first time this year since Doha. We almost had another one of the top four in there as well, but Andy Murray fell to David Ferrer. In Spain's clay-court Masters event, there are three Spaniards and Roger Federer in the semifinals. So really, this is perhaps the least crazy Masters event we've had yet this year.
Honestly, it will be a surprise if we don't have a rematch of the Federer-Nadal final from last year on Sunday. Almagro came out of a weak quarter and hasn't had to face anyone close to the level of Nadal up to this point. And Federer seems to be trying very hard to find his form, and the Federer Express is 9-0 against Ferrer. He may have suffered a few first-time losses lately, but it's tough to see Ferrer coming through. He was pretty gritty against Gulbis, and had just enough of the right stuff to come away with the win. Ferrer was more solid against Murray, but the Scot wasn't hitting his shots. Ferrer will have to expect some tougher balls to handle tomorrow.
Nadal and Almagro each blew through their matches, so there isn't too much to say about them. That matchup looks a lot like the other semi, actually. Nadal is 5-0 against Almagro, and it's tough to see him losing that one. So we'll get our first Rafa-Fed face-off since exactly one year ago, on the eve of the French Open. It seems appropriate somehow, doesn't it?
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Friday, May 14, 2010
Madrid Quartefinals
Tomorrow we have the quarterfinals in the final clay-court Masters event of the year. It's a fairly strong lineup, but a few of the faces that one might have expected to find there are out, either due to injury or fatigue. But three of the four quarterfinal matches feature six players who have to be considered favorites to make the second week at Roland Garros.
Of those quarterfinal matches, the one that may be the most interesting is Roger Federer against Ernests Gulbis. While the rematch between Federer and Wawrinka today was a bit of a dud, that was in large part because Wawrinka failed to show up, and Federer managed to just stay solid. I don't think he can expect the same kind of performance from Gulbis tomorrow. The court in Madrid is harder and less clay-ish than the rest of the Masters events on the surface, which would normally help Federer. But it helps Gulbis, too. I expect Federer to be in a "refuse to lose" mode tomorrow, since one loss to the young Latvian was more than enough, I'm sure. But he will have to play well - better than he has in a while - to keep Ernests from hitting him off the court, assuming he can keep his head on straight.
The other particularly interesting quarterfinal is between Andy Murray and David Ferrer. Murray has actually performed the best out of any of the quarterfinalists thus far, dropping only nine games in his first two matches. On the other hand, Ferrer is one of only two of the remaining eight players who has dropped a set. So the Spaniard has not been at his best, while Murray seems to have been playing well. But the Scot also hasn't faced the toughest opposition, while Ferrer ran into an inspired Baghdatis in teh second round. This one is a toss-up. Ferrer is likely to be more tired, while one thing that Murray definitely hasn't done lately is play too many matches. I'm anxious to see how this one goes.
The other two matches are less exciting in terms of the outcome. Rafael Nadal plays Gael Monfils, who is playing just his sixth match since March. It seems extremely unlikely that the recently injured Frenchman could upset Nadal, but no matter what the outcome, there should be some stellar shotmaking. The other quarterfinal is two players playing for the honor of losing to Nadal in the semis. Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro took advantage of a fatigue-ravaged section to reach the quarters. It's really a toss-up about who could win, but on one hand, it's not going to matter once Sunday rolls around.
On the women's side, I'm glad to see that Venus Williams and Sam Stosur, which could be an awesome match, is on center court, despite not having any Spanish players in action. The Europeans seem to care less about the women on clay than the men, at this time of year, but it's good that the tournament organizers saw that this is a match that shouldn't be missed. I pick the winner of that match to make the final, though at that point, it's going to be a tough fight against either Petrova or Jankovic. This should be an exciting weekend. I wish I didn't have a wedding to attend, because I'd stay up all night and watch tennis!
Of those quarterfinal matches, the one that may be the most interesting is Roger Federer against Ernests Gulbis. While the rematch between Federer and Wawrinka today was a bit of a dud, that was in large part because Wawrinka failed to show up, and Federer managed to just stay solid. I don't think he can expect the same kind of performance from Gulbis tomorrow. The court in Madrid is harder and less clay-ish than the rest of the Masters events on the surface, which would normally help Federer. But it helps Gulbis, too. I expect Federer to be in a "refuse to lose" mode tomorrow, since one loss to the young Latvian was more than enough, I'm sure. But he will have to play well - better than he has in a while - to keep Ernests from hitting him off the court, assuming he can keep his head on straight.
The other particularly interesting quarterfinal is between Andy Murray and David Ferrer. Murray has actually performed the best out of any of the quarterfinalists thus far, dropping only nine games in his first two matches. On the other hand, Ferrer is one of only two of the remaining eight players who has dropped a set. So the Spaniard has not been at his best, while Murray seems to have been playing well. But the Scot also hasn't faced the toughest opposition, while Ferrer ran into an inspired Baghdatis in teh second round. This one is a toss-up. Ferrer is likely to be more tired, while one thing that Murray definitely hasn't done lately is play too many matches. I'm anxious to see how this one goes.
The other two matches are less exciting in terms of the outcome. Rafael Nadal plays Gael Monfils, who is playing just his sixth match since March. It seems extremely unlikely that the recently injured Frenchman could upset Nadal, but no matter what the outcome, there should be some stellar shotmaking. The other quarterfinal is two players playing for the honor of losing to Nadal in the semis. Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro took advantage of a fatigue-ravaged section to reach the quarters. It's really a toss-up about who could win, but on one hand, it's not going to matter once Sunday rolls around.
On the women's side, I'm glad to see that Venus Williams and Sam Stosur, which could be an awesome match, is on center court, despite not having any Spanish players in action. The Europeans seem to care less about the women on clay than the men, at this time of year, but it's good that the tournament organizers saw that this is a match that shouldn't be missed. I pick the winner of that match to make the final, though at that point, it's going to be a tough fight against either Petrova or Jankovic. This should be an exciting weekend. I wish I didn't have a wedding to attend, because I'd stay up all night and watch tennis!
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Madrid Third Round
In second round action in Madrid, there was really only one upset to speak of, and it wasn't even on the men's side! Serena Williams lost to Nadia Petrova, way out on court three. This is not a tremendous surprise, because Petrova started the year red hot, and may just now be getting her game back. But I also can't imagine that Serena was terribly excited about the situation, playing on court three as WTA world number one. Maybe she just wanted to head off to France and enjoy some more time off. At least, it was something that was on her mind. Her sister won, though.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Madrid Round 2
After two days of action at the ATP Madrid Masters (three days for the women) there have been some surprising upsets already. Two of the three men's winners from last week's ATP events are already out, and the third nearly followed them. Albert Montanes's loss was the least surprising, as he was facing big-hitting Ernests Gulbis. Montanes served for the first set at 5-4, but ended up losing 9 of the next 10 games. Tough loss, but Gulbis just blew him off the court. Sam Querrey, on the other hand, had no business losing to Challenger stalwart Daniel Munoz-De La Nava, who had never won an ATP level match before and was ranked 315. Querrey served for the match, again, and was broken, then lost it. Really disappointing performance from Sam, I'm not going to lie. Sam needs to stop losing serve when he's on the verge of winning a match. That's three of his losses since the clay-court season started, if you can believe that.
John Isner, on the other hand, managed to defeat a tougher opponent in Christophe Rochus. Another American made it through to the second when both Tomas Berdych and David Nalbandian withdrew with injury, so lucky losers Mardy Fish and Michael Russell took their places. I'm not sure I've ever seen that before, but Fish came through that one.
Oh right, the other tournament winner. Mikhail Youzhny looked down and out against Lukas Lacko, losing the first set 6-2, before he got back into the match and won it in three. His reward for that win? Ernests Gulbis in the second. If he's flat for as long as he was against Lacko, Gulbis will blow him off the court.
Looking ahead to some of the other exciting matches that we'll see tomorrow, there's quite a bevy of crackerjack matches. On center court, Andy Roddick finally starts his clay-court campaign against Feliciano Lopez, which is not a bad first match for the American. Following that, Nadal gets unfortunate Ukrainian victim Oleksander Dolgopolov Jr., which might last an hour, if Nadal's taking his time. And then Ferrer gets Marcos Baghdatis, a match which would normally be very exciting, but on clay, Ferrer gets better and Baggy gets worse. So expect Ferrer to win that one.
But this would be a great day to have a grounds pass at the Mutua Madrilena. Almagro and Soderling are playing on the second court, as are Andy Murray and Juan Ignacio Chela. The first match should be tight, but the second one is going to be a blowout - I just don't know for which player. If Murray has gotten his head together in the past week, he should win without much trouble, but if he's still playing like he's been playing since the Australian Open, it could be a long day at the office. Or a quick one, and he'll be heading to France early.
Way out on court four, Thomaz Bellucci is playing Juan Monaco, which is a great clay-court match to be on such a way out court. And that's not even mentioning the fact that court three has both of the William sisters in action. I guess they're not very popular in Spain, as their matches could both be exciting. Venus is playing Schiavone, while Serena is playing Petrova. Those could go either way. Meanwhile, on center court, in the second night match, the WTA put on... Lucia Safarova and Alexandra Dulgheru? What? The first WTA match of the day is actually a great one, so it's a bit puzzling that it's on first, as Serbian sensations Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic face off. That could be a good one, too. Strange scheduling going on.
Ah well. Mysteries of court placement and timing aside, that's a great day of tennis, and that's why the second or third round of Masters Series events can be some of the most exciting days in the tennis calendar.
John Isner, on the other hand, managed to defeat a tougher opponent in Christophe Rochus. Another American made it through to the second when both Tomas Berdych and David Nalbandian withdrew with injury, so lucky losers Mardy Fish and Michael Russell took their places. I'm not sure I've ever seen that before, but Fish came through that one.
Oh right, the other tournament winner. Mikhail Youzhny looked down and out against Lukas Lacko, losing the first set 6-2, before he got back into the match and won it in three. His reward for that win? Ernests Gulbis in the second. If he's flat for as long as he was against Lacko, Gulbis will blow him off the court.
Looking ahead to some of the other exciting matches that we'll see tomorrow, there's quite a bevy of crackerjack matches. On center court, Andy Roddick finally starts his clay-court campaign against Feliciano Lopez, which is not a bad first match for the American. Following that, Nadal gets unfortunate Ukrainian victim Oleksander Dolgopolov Jr., which might last an hour, if Nadal's taking his time. And then Ferrer gets Marcos Baghdatis, a match which would normally be very exciting, but on clay, Ferrer gets better and Baggy gets worse. So expect Ferrer to win that one.
But this would be a great day to have a grounds pass at the Mutua Madrilena. Almagro and Soderling are playing on the second court, as are Andy Murray and Juan Ignacio Chela. The first match should be tight, but the second one is going to be a blowout - I just don't know for which player. If Murray has gotten his head together in the past week, he should win without much trouble, but if he's still playing like he's been playing since the Australian Open, it could be a long day at the office. Or a quick one, and he'll be heading to France early.
Way out on court four, Thomaz Bellucci is playing Juan Monaco, which is a great clay-court match to be on such a way out court. And that's not even mentioning the fact that court three has both of the William sisters in action. I guess they're not very popular in Spain, as their matches could both be exciting. Venus is playing Schiavone, while Serena is playing Petrova. Those could go either way. Meanwhile, on center court, in the second night match, the WTA put on... Lucia Safarova and Alexandra Dulgheru? What? The first WTA match of the day is actually a great one, so it's a bit puzzling that it's on first, as Serbian sensations Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic face off. That could be a good one, too. Strange scheduling going on.
Ah well. Mysteries of court placement and timing aside, that's a great day of tennis, and that's why the second or third round of Masters Series events can be some of the most exciting days in the tennis calendar.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Week 18 Review and Madrid Preview
All three of the men's ATP finals which took place today were good matches. All three went through three tight sets, and it was a question about who was going to take the title in all three matches until the very end.
The all-American showdown in Belgrade was probably the most exciting, because Isner was actually up a set and a break, serving at 5-3 in the second set, and even had a match point on serve. You've got to give that to someone who serves as big as Isner, almost every time. But Isner cracked under the pressure, lost the second set in a tiebreak, and then lost the third set by a single break. Querrey was just a bit more solid, in the final summation.
The same could be said for the other two winners. Frederico Gil looked to be down and out, when Albert Montanes ran away with the first set and looked ready to win the second. But he snuck out a victory in the tiebreak and then broke to start the third. Gil was unable to become the first Portuguese player to win an ATP tournament, as Montanes won the third set 7-5. Shame for the hometown boy. Cilic-Youzhny was not quite as topsy-turvy. The Russian seemed to be the stronger throughout most of the match, and he came out on top in the end. Really good day of tennis.
Looking ahead to Madrid, you've got nine of the top twelve players appearing. Del Potro and Davydenko are still out with injury, while Djokovic is suffering from an illness and/or allergies. Still, it's a pretty stacked field.
Roger Federer has had an abysmal season, after his win at the Australian Open. His inability to even take the title in Estoril of all places, losing to the 31st-ranked Montanes in the semifinals. With that in mind, he has to be both anxious for a win here in Madrid, but also something of a long shot, considering his current form.
And the draw he got is not doing him any favors. After a first-round bye, he'll face either Benjamin Becker or wildcard and former French Open champion Carlos Moya. After that, it's likely that he'll get Swiss compatriot Stan Wawrinka, who beat him on clay last year. And no matter who his quarterfinal opponent might be, it's going to be a bear of a match. He could face Youzhny, Gulbis, Montanes, or Andy Roddick. Gulbis-Montanes is one of the great opening round matches, but to have three players in this section of the draw coming in with winning streaks, and then the hottest young player on the tour, all in the same group, could spell trouble for Roger.
The second quarter of the draw has Andy Murray as the top seed, who hasn't had a much better season, post-Aussie Open. His section of the draw is mildly less brutal, but it's still no cakewalk. He may open against Cuevas or Chela, two clay-court stalwarts, and then potentially Sam Querrey, who just bagged his first title on clay. He could also get either Igor Andreev or Victor Hanescu in the third round. And then, in the quarterfinals, he may get either Cilic or Ferrer. The outside possibilities for his quarterfinal opponent include the third Swiss player in the draw, Marco Chiudinelli, or his first-round opponent Marcos Baghdatis. That's another cracker of a match tomorrow.
Because the second, fifth, and sixth-ranked players are out of the tournament, the fourth seed here this week is Robin Soderling, who has a quarter all to himself. So far, he hasn't shown the kind of form he would need to get back to the French Open final again. His nemesis so far this year, Fernando Verdasco, is also slated to be his quarterfinal opponent. But before he even gets there, he'll have to win against either Nicolas Almagro or Viktor Troicki, and then Juan Monaco or Tomaz Bellucci. That's almost as close to a group of clay-court ringers as you could get. And the wildcard in this section of the draw is David Nalbandian, who opens against the tall Czech Tomas Berdych. That is my pick for the best first-round match, by the way. And Verdasco has to face Ivo Karlovic in his first match. Almost anyone could find their way out of his quarter.
Because of Djokovic's absence, Nadal is back to his usual place as the second seed. And not only is he the favorite to win the tournament, he's also been gifted the best draw. He'll probably open against perennial underachiever Andreas Seppi, after which he may get John Isner or Phillip Kohlschreiber. No threats so far. His quartefinal opponent is likely to be Tsonga, who he beat without too much trouble early in the year. Gael Monfils is also in that section, but he hasn't played in so long, who knows how his form will be this week.
Except for Nadal, it's tough for me to see any of the other top four seeds making it to the semifinals. So this tournament is pretty wide open, in terms of getting to face Nadal. I don't know who's going to be able to beat him. It's always a possibility, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point, unless you just like really long odds.
The all-American showdown in Belgrade was probably the most exciting, because Isner was actually up a set and a break, serving at 5-3 in the second set, and even had a match point on serve. You've got to give that to someone who serves as big as Isner, almost every time. But Isner cracked under the pressure, lost the second set in a tiebreak, and then lost the third set by a single break. Querrey was just a bit more solid, in the final summation.
The same could be said for the other two winners. Frederico Gil looked to be down and out, when Albert Montanes ran away with the first set and looked ready to win the second. But he snuck out a victory in the tiebreak and then broke to start the third. Gil was unable to become the first Portuguese player to win an ATP tournament, as Montanes won the third set 7-5. Shame for the hometown boy. Cilic-Youzhny was not quite as topsy-turvy. The Russian seemed to be the stronger throughout most of the match, and he came out on top in the end. Really good day of tennis.
Looking ahead to Madrid, you've got nine of the top twelve players appearing. Del Potro and Davydenko are still out with injury, while Djokovic is suffering from an illness and/or allergies. Still, it's a pretty stacked field.
Roger Federer has had an abysmal season, after his win at the Australian Open. His inability to even take the title in Estoril of all places, losing to the 31st-ranked Montanes in the semifinals. With that in mind, he has to be both anxious for a win here in Madrid, but also something of a long shot, considering his current form.
And the draw he got is not doing him any favors. After a first-round bye, he'll face either Benjamin Becker or wildcard and former French Open champion Carlos Moya. After that, it's likely that he'll get Swiss compatriot Stan Wawrinka, who beat him on clay last year. And no matter who his quarterfinal opponent might be, it's going to be a bear of a match. He could face Youzhny, Gulbis, Montanes, or Andy Roddick. Gulbis-Montanes is one of the great opening round matches, but to have three players in this section of the draw coming in with winning streaks, and then the hottest young player on the tour, all in the same group, could spell trouble for Roger.
The second quarter of the draw has Andy Murray as the top seed, who hasn't had a much better season, post-Aussie Open. His section of the draw is mildly less brutal, but it's still no cakewalk. He may open against Cuevas or Chela, two clay-court stalwarts, and then potentially Sam Querrey, who just bagged his first title on clay. He could also get either Igor Andreev or Victor Hanescu in the third round. And then, in the quarterfinals, he may get either Cilic or Ferrer. The outside possibilities for his quarterfinal opponent include the third Swiss player in the draw, Marco Chiudinelli, or his first-round opponent Marcos Baghdatis. That's another cracker of a match tomorrow.
Because the second, fifth, and sixth-ranked players are out of the tournament, the fourth seed here this week is Robin Soderling, who has a quarter all to himself. So far, he hasn't shown the kind of form he would need to get back to the French Open final again. His nemesis so far this year, Fernando Verdasco, is also slated to be his quarterfinal opponent. But before he even gets there, he'll have to win against either Nicolas Almagro or Viktor Troicki, and then Juan Monaco or Tomaz Bellucci. That's almost as close to a group of clay-court ringers as you could get. And the wildcard in this section of the draw is David Nalbandian, who opens against the tall Czech Tomas Berdych. That is my pick for the best first-round match, by the way. And Verdasco has to face Ivo Karlovic in his first match. Almost anyone could find their way out of his quarter.
Because of Djokovic's absence, Nadal is back to his usual place as the second seed. And not only is he the favorite to win the tournament, he's also been gifted the best draw. He'll probably open against perennial underachiever Andreas Seppi, after which he may get John Isner or Phillip Kohlschreiber. No threats so far. His quartefinal opponent is likely to be Tsonga, who he beat without too much trouble early in the year. Gael Monfils is also in that section, but he hasn't played in so long, who knows how his form will be this week.
Except for Nadal, it's tough for me to see any of the other top four seeds making it to the semifinals. So this tournament is pretty wide open, in terms of getting to face Nadal. I don't know who's going to be able to beat him. It's always a possibility, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point, unless you just like really long odds.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Week 18 Finals
In terms of semifinal surprises, there was one minor one and one major one. The shocking result from yesterday's tennis was Federer's loss to Albert Montanes, the defending champion in Estoril, but also a player ranked 30 spots below Federer. This is probably Federer's most surprising loss, and while he credited Montanes with being a clay-court specialist after the match, Federer is the defending Roland Garros champion, so he should be able to figure out a match against a player ranked outside the top 30.
Montanes, who beat James Blake in the final last year in an epic match, will face Portuguese player Frederico Gil, who is the player from his nation to make the finals of an ATP tournament. Kudos to him, and if Montanes is at all hungover after his win against Federer, Gil could make a little more history.
There's more history being made in Belgrade, where John Isner upset Stan Wawrinka in the relatively minor upset of the day, to face American compatriot Sam Querrey in the finals. It's been 19 years since a clay-court final featured two American players, if you can believe that. Maybe the long, cold winter of American clay futility is beginning to end? That should be an interesting match, because I think Sam has the better game for the surface, but Isner is stronger mentally. And these two players know each other very well.
In Munich, there weren't any surprises. Top seed faces second seed, as Cilic takes on Mikhail Youzhny. Nothing particularly interesting to note, as these two players have both had good years - this is, if I'm not mistaken, Youzhny's fourth final since the beginning of the season, and he's yet to bag a title. Maybe he can finally make it across the finish line?
Tomorrow, we'll look at the draw in Madrid, the last big clay-court warm-up before the French Open. For his sake, I hope Federer can get some traction there.
Montanes, who beat James Blake in the final last year in an epic match, will face Portuguese player Frederico Gil, who is the player from his nation to make the finals of an ATP tournament. Kudos to him, and if Montanes is at all hungover after his win against Federer, Gil could make a little more history.
There's more history being made in Belgrade, where John Isner upset Stan Wawrinka in the relatively minor upset of the day, to face American compatriot Sam Querrey in the finals. It's been 19 years since a clay-court final featured two American players, if you can believe that. Maybe the long, cold winter of American clay futility is beginning to end? That should be an interesting match, because I think Sam has the better game for the surface, but Isner is stronger mentally. And these two players know each other very well.
In Munich, there weren't any surprises. Top seed faces second seed, as Cilic takes on Mikhail Youzhny. Nothing particularly interesting to note, as these two players have both had good years - this is, if I'm not mistaken, Youzhny's fourth final since the beginning of the season, and he's yet to bag a title. Maybe he can finally make it across the finish line?
Tomorrow, we'll look at the draw in Madrid, the last big clay-court warm-up before the French Open. For his sake, I hope Federer can get some traction there.
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