Even though we're through with play on Sunday, the action from week 40 is not quite finished. The final in Tokyo has concluded as one might have expected, with Nadal just too strong for Monfils, but in Beijing, rain has kept Djokovic and Ferrer from playing out their match. Djokovic is already up a break by the fourth game, though, so when play resumes on Monday, it seems like he'll have the advantage.
It wasn't the most exciting week for this pair of Asian ATP 500 events, but there were some absolutely amazing matches. Roddick-Monfils and Nadal-Troicki were two of the best, most exciting matches that I've seen for the last few months. This was a good week for Troicki, who has a fair amount of talent but hasn't really broken through with any big wins. He almost had a career-changing victory over Nadal, but he couldn't quite pull it off. He had already beaten Melzer in a third-set tiebreak in the previous round, so here's hoping he can continue playing that way and build off a very strong week, even if he did completely choke when he had the match on his racket.
The week in Beijing wasn't quite as exciting, but it was surprising to see the second, third, and fourth seeds put up weak efforts in their quarterfinal losses. Murray, Soderling, and Davydenko all failed to win a set in that round. Good show from Djokovic and Ferrer, but all of those other guys are still trying to qualify for the end-of-year championships, and the opportunities to wrap up those points are getting scarcer.
Next week in Shanghai, trying to rack up points in order to qualify for London will be the focus, for a lot of these players. It's really late in the season for only three of the eight spots to be wrapped up - Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer are all in, which isn't a shock. Murray and Soderling are in very good shape, with Berdych in a moderately safe position, while Roddick and Verdasco are currently in the 7th and 8th spots, but are in no way secure in their spots. One or both of them will probably even drop this week, as Ferrer was sitting in 9th, but getting to the final in Beijing (at least, maybe even winning) will help his chances immensely.
One of the players with a chance of qualifying for the year-end championships is already out of Shanghai, as Nicolas Almagro fell in a Sunday first-round match to Alexandr Dolgopolov - it was another third set tiebreak, which is a fine way to start off the week. I'll take a look at what other action you can expect as I usually do, going quarter by quarter.
Nadal, as the top seed and recent champion in Tokyo, isn't going to have it easy this week. He gets a bye in the first round, but then he'll have to face either Gilles Simon or Stan Wawrinka, who is playing his first ATP tournament since the U.S. Open, where he played some incredible tennis but wore himself out in the process. We'll see if he can continue his great under new coach Peter Lundgren. And after that, he'll have either Jurgen Melzer, Mardy Fish, or Denis Istomin. The other half of Nadal's quarter is not quite so loaded - Davydenko could potentiall be challenged by Sergiy Stakhovsky, but I'll be shocked if Verdasco doesn't get through de Bakker and Monaco, which will help his London push. Verdasco-Davydenko should be a good match, if both get that far, and then the winner will get Nadal (or his conqueror) in the quarters.
The second quarter belongs to Andy Murray, who has not been on a great run since he won one of the Summer hardcourt Masters titles. He'll probably open against Radek Stepanek in the second round, and then he gets either Chardy, Baghdatis, or Dolgopolov. He doesn't need to win the tournament to secure his place in London - he just needs to win a couple rounds here, and I'll be shocked if he doesn't. The bottom half of his quarter has Mikhail Youzhny, as well as Sam Querrey and Michael Berrer (which isn't a bad first-round match) but the real wildcard is JW Tsonga, back from an injury layoff, who opens against Feliciano Lopez. Murray's going to have to really slump to not come through this section, though.
The third quarter is third-seed Roger Federer's (I know, can you believe it?) and his half is pretty easy, with one potential exception. It's likely that Fed's first round match will be against John Isner, and without any match play to get used to the conditions, that could be a tough one. Isner would have to play (and serve) at his absolute max to make it a match, but it's an outside possibility. Beyond that, I don't see Seppi, Yen-Hsun Lu, or a slumping Marin Cilic giving him any trouble. The other half of his section is a a bit tougher, though. Robin Soderling is there, and he'll open against either Tipsarevic or Golubev. Ferrer beat Soderling last week, and he's in this section, but with almost no rest between tournaments, it's going to be a tough ask to play Djokovic in a final today and (in all likelihood) Llodra in a first round tomorrow, in an entirely different city.
The last quarter is Djokovic's, but he's going to be in a similar situation to Ferrer, if not quite as bad, since he has a first-round bye. He'll probably open against Ljubicic, and that could be a tricky match, but it probably won't be if you were looking at the Croat's recent form. Djoker's section has one of the best first-rounders, between Richard Gasquet and Ernests Gulbis - call it "the battle of wasted talent." The winner of that one will most likely get Monfils, and then that winner gets Djokovic. That's pretty exciting, but I think the other half of this section is even better. Roddick and Berdych are the seeds, and both are vying for places in the year-end championships. Roddick opens against Kohlschreiber, then gets a relatively easy match against either Schwank or Garcia-Lopez, and neither of them are at their best on hard-courts, but then Roddick and Berdych will face off, assuming Berdych can beat Robredo (he probably can). That will be an essential match for both of these players' end-of-year fortunes.
There was a lull after the U.S. Open, but things are starting to heat up again, and this is the most exciting end-of-year championship qualifying season that I can recall. Usually, there are only two or at most three spots left to determine at this point in the season, not five. Plenty of players with a lot to gain (and lose) in this week's action.
Showing posts with label nadal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nadal. Show all posts
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Thursday, September 16, 2010
US Open Wrap-Up
This is a bit belated, but now that the U.S. Open is over, we can look back on things with some more perspective. Obviously, the tournament was an unqualified success for Rafael Nadal, who completed his career grand slam, won his third consecutive major tournament, and put himself in the conversation among the greatest players of all time. Really, a stunning fortnight for him - and while he may not have had to face his toughest opponents on the way, but neither did Federer when he won his French Open. You can't blame Nadal for not being able to beat Federer this year - he beat everyone who he was supposed to, and that's all he needed to do.
Novak Djokovic had an amazing week as well, after nearly buckling in the first round to compatriot Viktor Troicki, he was fading in the heat and looked down for the count. But the sun started setting, he got a second wind, and rode it all the way through to the final. He thoroughly outplayed Federer in the semifinal match, but he still just barely won it. It's the best he's played since he lost to Nadal during the clay-court season in 2009, in the greatest three-set match ever played. But even with the aid of the weather, it wasn't enough to challenge Nadal in the final. But then again, we can only ask so much of one player.
Which may be part of the explanation for Federer's fall in the semis. Even though he almost won the match, he was the second-best player for the whole encounter. He was hitting way too many errors and not serving well enough to have expected any other result. But really, how could anyone have expected him to make another U.S. Open final? I guess we might have, since that's one record he didn't own - Lendl still (and probably always will) have the record for consecutive U.S. Open finals. Federer was probably spoiled by having relatively easy competition straight through to his semifinal - his only potentially tricky opponent, Soderling, he was able to take on in absolutely ideal conditions. That's not to say that he didn't play brilliantly in that match, but he may have gotten to Djokovic and started thinking about the final before he had dispatched the Serb. And though I wouldn't have expected it, the Djoker rose to the occasion and played spoiler. Still, a fine summer for Federer, despite not making the final here.
Everybody else, on the other hand, has some work to do in the last part of the season to make up for their disappointing Summers' ends. Well, Youzhny probably can take a break - and maybe Wawrinka, who played amazing tennis but wore himself out. But Andy Murray was passive and petulant in his loss to the other Swiss player, and he's gone another year without his maiden grand slam title. His game is brilliant, his talent is unquestionable - but his tactics are sometimes less than ideal, and his attitude is often the thing that brings him down.
Andy Roddick's showing was even worse - I'm honestly getting tired of hearing him say that his plan, going into the match, was to let his opponent miss. "There's no way he can keep this up," is his mantra after so many grand slam losses. I'm thinking back to Kohlschreiber at the Australian Open, Gasquet at Wimbledon, Lu at Wimbledon this year, or the other time that Tipsarevic beat Roddick, also at Wimbledon. But it's terrible to come out after the match and say that he successfully executed his strategy in that match, because if that's his strategy, then any player can play an hour and a half of brilliant tennis and beat him. Sometimes, he needs to be able to win matches, not just allow other players to lose them. Tipsarevic himself said as much, talking about how nobody fears Roddick from the baseline anymore. Andy's out of the top ten once again, though he's still in the top eight in the year-to-date race, so he has a chance of making the year-end championships in London, with a couple good showings at the last two Masters events. But he needs to tweak his gameplan for the big matches, or else he's going to keep getting blown off the court.
Fortunately for Andy, the other Americans did well enough at the tournament to draw attention away from his poor performance on court and worse, his fairly childish reaction to a line judge. Of course, she was stupid too, (we should all be able to tell our right from our left) but her foot fault call was correct. Anyway, Mardy Fish and Sam Querrey both had good runs - one young player and one vet, and another pair had promising showings despite trouble with an injury or an unlucky draw. I'm looking at you, Isner and Blake. Despite not having any Americans in the top ten, we still have players who can win tournaments and be in the conversation - and we'll have one back in the top ten soon enough. There were a handful of performances from really young players that were just amazing - teen Ryan Harrison played great tennis, but choked on the verge of a famous victory. And the 17-year old Jack Sock may have lost in the first round of the main draw, but he won the junior title to become the first U.S. Champ in the boys' event since Andy Roddick. This is not all bad news.
There's still a lot to play for this year - two more Masters events and a handful of 250s and 500s. The Asian swing and the European indoor swing, two oft-overlooked but still great parts of the season. In the coming years, watch for the Asian swing to become more important, not less. I'd keep an eye on the young Japanese player, Kei Nishikori, this year - he played great at the U.S. Open, upsetting Marin Cilic, and he should be back in the top hundred by the time this year is over.
Novak Djokovic had an amazing week as well, after nearly buckling in the first round to compatriot Viktor Troicki, he was fading in the heat and looked down for the count. But the sun started setting, he got a second wind, and rode it all the way through to the final. He thoroughly outplayed Federer in the semifinal match, but he still just barely won it. It's the best he's played since he lost to Nadal during the clay-court season in 2009, in the greatest three-set match ever played. But even with the aid of the weather, it wasn't enough to challenge Nadal in the final. But then again, we can only ask so much of one player.
Which may be part of the explanation for Federer's fall in the semis. Even though he almost won the match, he was the second-best player for the whole encounter. He was hitting way too many errors and not serving well enough to have expected any other result. But really, how could anyone have expected him to make another U.S. Open final? I guess we might have, since that's one record he didn't own - Lendl still (and probably always will) have the record for consecutive U.S. Open finals. Federer was probably spoiled by having relatively easy competition straight through to his semifinal - his only potentially tricky opponent, Soderling, he was able to take on in absolutely ideal conditions. That's not to say that he didn't play brilliantly in that match, but he may have gotten to Djokovic and started thinking about the final before he had dispatched the Serb. And though I wouldn't have expected it, the Djoker rose to the occasion and played spoiler. Still, a fine summer for Federer, despite not making the final here.
Everybody else, on the other hand, has some work to do in the last part of the season to make up for their disappointing Summers' ends. Well, Youzhny probably can take a break - and maybe Wawrinka, who played amazing tennis but wore himself out. But Andy Murray was passive and petulant in his loss to the other Swiss player, and he's gone another year without his maiden grand slam title. His game is brilliant, his talent is unquestionable - but his tactics are sometimes less than ideal, and his attitude is often the thing that brings him down.
Andy Roddick's showing was even worse - I'm honestly getting tired of hearing him say that his plan, going into the match, was to let his opponent miss. "There's no way he can keep this up," is his mantra after so many grand slam losses. I'm thinking back to Kohlschreiber at the Australian Open, Gasquet at Wimbledon, Lu at Wimbledon this year, or the other time that Tipsarevic beat Roddick, also at Wimbledon. But it's terrible to come out after the match and say that he successfully executed his strategy in that match, because if that's his strategy, then any player can play an hour and a half of brilliant tennis and beat him. Sometimes, he needs to be able to win matches, not just allow other players to lose them. Tipsarevic himself said as much, talking about how nobody fears Roddick from the baseline anymore. Andy's out of the top ten once again, though he's still in the top eight in the year-to-date race, so he has a chance of making the year-end championships in London, with a couple good showings at the last two Masters events. But he needs to tweak his gameplan for the big matches, or else he's going to keep getting blown off the court.
Fortunately for Andy, the other Americans did well enough at the tournament to draw attention away from his poor performance on court and worse, his fairly childish reaction to a line judge. Of course, she was stupid too, (we should all be able to tell our right from our left) but her foot fault call was correct. Anyway, Mardy Fish and Sam Querrey both had good runs - one young player and one vet, and another pair had promising showings despite trouble with an injury or an unlucky draw. I'm looking at you, Isner and Blake. Despite not having any Americans in the top ten, we still have players who can win tournaments and be in the conversation - and we'll have one back in the top ten soon enough. There were a handful of performances from really young players that were just amazing - teen Ryan Harrison played great tennis, but choked on the verge of a famous victory. And the 17-year old Jack Sock may have lost in the first round of the main draw, but he won the junior title to become the first U.S. Champ in the boys' event since Andy Roddick. This is not all bad news.
There's still a lot to play for this year - two more Masters events and a handful of 250s and 500s. The Asian swing and the European indoor swing, two oft-overlooked but still great parts of the season. In the coming years, watch for the Asian swing to become more important, not less. I'd keep an eye on the young Japanese player, Kei Nishikori, this year - he played great at the U.S. Open, upsetting Marin Cilic, and he should be back in the top hundred by the time this year is over.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
US Open - Super Saturday
In just the three matches we had today, the full gamut of tennis competitiveness was on display. We had one match which was a complete fiasco, in which one of the players didn't even show up mentally and was never even on the same court as the eventual winner. We had one match where it was a tightly-contested affair, with both players achieving a good level of tennis, but one was simply the better player today, and despite some moments of brief tension, the outcome was never really in doubt. And we had one match that was utterly topsy-turvy, but when it all came together near the end, both players reached an astonishing level of play, and it wasn't clear until the last point was played just who was going to come away with the victory. It was without question a classic match, one of the best of this year's Open, if not the entire year.
Of course, the first refers to the women's final, where Vera Zvonareva managed to be as much of a headcase as she'd been in the past. Credit to her for getting this far, but she really couldn't hold herself together in the pressure of the final, unfortunately. Kim Clijsters played good tennis, with a 17-15 winner to unforced error ratio, but her opponent was at a mere 6-24. It's a shame for Vera, who played unbelievably well to get her, to stumble at this stage once again. There must be something wrong with the Russian tennis development system to produce players with so much skill who have so many problems in situations like these. Dinara Safina, anyone?
The second was the contest between Mikhail Youzhny and Rafael Nadal. The Russian didn't play bad tennis by any means. He played a strong match, considering how much he had to play recently, compared to how fresh Nadal must have been. But Youzhny just didn't have the game to handle Nadal today. He managed one short-lived, last-minute surge of great play to break Nadal in the third set, but was quickly broken back and lost the match. No shame in that, he was just beaten by the better player - short of breaking Rafa's knee with his racket, I don't know what Youzhny could have done out there today.
The third match was a great one. I don't think it was a match for the ages - any match where one of the players loses sets 6-1 and 6-2 could have been a lot closer and more even throughout, but the fifth set was one of the best moments of the Open this year. Federer made a big push at just the moment that you thought he would, having essentially given away the fourth set - while Novak was serving to stay in the match. He got up 15-40, giving himself a pair of match points. Despite having some rough patches of play, it looked like Federer was going to close it out and face Nadal in the final. Everything was going according to the script.
But apparently, Djokovic hadn't read it. Down two match points, he blasted three straight winners - and not just winners, but stone-cold winners, blasted at ridiculous velocity passed a stunned Federer. To make those shots under any circumstances would have been impressive, but to make them down match point in the semifinal of a grand slam against Roger Federer - that's just sick. And Djokovic was apparently so pumped up by it that he was able to break Federer in the next game and serve out the match. Really stunning display by Novak, who hasn't had a performance even close to this one since winning the Aussie Open back in 2008.
That said, I would be shocked if Djokovic can beat Nadal in tomorrow's final. After the monumental effort he had to put forth in the semis, he still gets to play the world's top player with essentially no rest. Nadal still hasn't lost a set and has had a pretty clear path to the final. He'll be fresh and eager to put his stamp on history, and a physically and mentally exhausted Djokovic is exactly who he'll hope to see on the other side of the net. Nadal won't go on walkabout for a set or two at a time the way Federer did. He won't spray his forehand all over the place deep in the fifth set - or any set, for that matter.
It would be one of the greatest performances in tennis history if Djokovic could come back from this and beat Federer tomorrow. I don't see it happening.
Of course, the first refers to the women's final, where Vera Zvonareva managed to be as much of a headcase as she'd been in the past. Credit to her for getting this far, but she really couldn't hold herself together in the pressure of the final, unfortunately. Kim Clijsters played good tennis, with a 17-15 winner to unforced error ratio, but her opponent was at a mere 6-24. It's a shame for Vera, who played unbelievably well to get her, to stumble at this stage once again. There must be something wrong with the Russian tennis development system to produce players with so much skill who have so many problems in situations like these. Dinara Safina, anyone?
The second was the contest between Mikhail Youzhny and Rafael Nadal. The Russian didn't play bad tennis by any means. He played a strong match, considering how much he had to play recently, compared to how fresh Nadal must have been. But Youzhny just didn't have the game to handle Nadal today. He managed one short-lived, last-minute surge of great play to break Nadal in the third set, but was quickly broken back and lost the match. No shame in that, he was just beaten by the better player - short of breaking Rafa's knee with his racket, I don't know what Youzhny could have done out there today.
The third match was a great one. I don't think it was a match for the ages - any match where one of the players loses sets 6-1 and 6-2 could have been a lot closer and more even throughout, but the fifth set was one of the best moments of the Open this year. Federer made a big push at just the moment that you thought he would, having essentially given away the fourth set - while Novak was serving to stay in the match. He got up 15-40, giving himself a pair of match points. Despite having some rough patches of play, it looked like Federer was going to close it out and face Nadal in the final. Everything was going according to the script.
But apparently, Djokovic hadn't read it. Down two match points, he blasted three straight winners - and not just winners, but stone-cold winners, blasted at ridiculous velocity passed a stunned Federer. To make those shots under any circumstances would have been impressive, but to make them down match point in the semifinal of a grand slam against Roger Federer - that's just sick. And Djokovic was apparently so pumped up by it that he was able to break Federer in the next game and serve out the match. Really stunning display by Novak, who hasn't had a performance even close to this one since winning the Aussie Open back in 2008.
That said, I would be shocked if Djokovic can beat Nadal in tomorrow's final. After the monumental effort he had to put forth in the semis, he still gets to play the world's top player with essentially no rest. Nadal still hasn't lost a set and has had a pretty clear path to the final. He'll be fresh and eager to put his stamp on history, and a physically and mentally exhausted Djokovic is exactly who he'll hope to see on the other side of the net. Nadal won't go on walkabout for a set or two at a time the way Federer did. He won't spray his forehand all over the place deep in the fifth set - or any set, for that matter.
It would be one of the greatest performances in tennis history if Djokovic could come back from this and beat Federer tomorrow. I don't see it happening.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
US Open Day 12
The women's semifinals took place today, and they were pretty surprising. Three of the four players were shaky and off their game today - and the one who wasn't was Vera Zvonareva. Top seed Caroline Wozniacki played her first shaky match of the tournament, and the Russian was there to capitalize. Credit to Vera, who played a very strong, solid match from a player who hasn't been known for her consistency in the past, but Wozniacki was strangely not present today. For somebody who has played so solid from day one against some very tough opponents in an array of conditions, I'm not sure what it was that got to her today. But Zvonareva has emerged as one of the best stories of the tournament, since she's made consecutive grand slam finals and has emerged as the Russian. No small feat for a player who was bawling on the court last year, tearing off her own leg strappings after missing six match points against Flavia Pennetta.
And she'll get Kim Clijsters in the final, but after their performances today, I'd like Zvonareva's chances against the two-time champion here. Because Kim and Venus were both shaky today - lots of double faults in key situations from both players. In the second-set tiebreak, Venus's play suddenly became riddled with unforced errors, and she basically gave the set away. Then in the third, Clijsters did the same thing while serving for the match! Very strange performance by both players, on such a big stage.
Honestly, given the way that Kim played yesterday, and the way that Vera did, I have to like the Russian's chances to win her first major tomorrow, and become the first Russian to take home a major title since Kuznetsova last year. Normally, Clijsters would be far and away the favorite, but based on their respective semifinal performances, it's hard to favor the Belgian.
As for the men's semifinals, they appear to be a bit more straightforward. Youzhny faces Nadal, and even though the Russian beat Nadal here, Rafa has since become a different player on this surface. He's managed his schedule better this year, so he comes into the US Open much fitter and on sturdier knees. Rafa is rolling, having won the last 19 matches at majors, and I don't expect this veteran Russian to be able to trouble him tomorrow.
The other semifinal is less straightforward, as Djokovic holds a 5-10 record against Roger. But he's only beaten him once at a Grand Slam, and that was at the Australian Open when Fed was suffering from mono. Djoker has played solid tennis against lower-ranked players this whole year, but he hasn't been able to step up against top players. He's only made a single final, and he won that - but it was in Dubai, where the competition wasn't quite what he can expect tomorrow.
Really, all signs point to a Rafa-Raja final, which is really what everyone (except Djokovic and Youzhny) wants, so let's go ahead with the tennis!
And she'll get Kim Clijsters in the final, but after their performances today, I'd like Zvonareva's chances against the two-time champion here. Because Kim and Venus were both shaky today - lots of double faults in key situations from both players. In the second-set tiebreak, Venus's play suddenly became riddled with unforced errors, and she basically gave the set away. Then in the third, Clijsters did the same thing while serving for the match! Very strange performance by both players, on such a big stage.
Honestly, given the way that Kim played yesterday, and the way that Vera did, I have to like the Russian's chances to win her first major tomorrow, and become the first Russian to take home a major title since Kuznetsova last year. Normally, Clijsters would be far and away the favorite, but based on their respective semifinal performances, it's hard to favor the Belgian.
As for the men's semifinals, they appear to be a bit more straightforward. Youzhny faces Nadal, and even though the Russian beat Nadal here, Rafa has since become a different player on this surface. He's managed his schedule better this year, so he comes into the US Open much fitter and on sturdier knees. Rafa is rolling, having won the last 19 matches at majors, and I don't expect this veteran Russian to be able to trouble him tomorrow.
The other semifinal is less straightforward, as Djokovic holds a 5-10 record against Roger. But he's only beaten him once at a Grand Slam, and that was at the Australian Open when Fed was suffering from mono. Djoker has played solid tennis against lower-ranked players this whole year, but he hasn't been able to step up against top players. He's only made a single final, and he won that - but it was in Dubai, where the competition wasn't quite what he can expect tomorrow.
Really, all signs point to a Rafa-Raja final, which is really what everyone (except Djokovic and Youzhny) wants, so let's go ahead with the tennis!
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Rogers Cup Semifinals
Well, you can't really ask for a better semifinal line-up than this one. While last year's quarterfinals were star-studded, with the world's top eight players making it to that stage, last year there were three out of four upsets - only Andy Murray made it to the semifinals out of the top four, and he went on to win the tournament. This year, the semifinal round is stacked with the big four, the four players who have dominated tennis for the last two years, and it should be fun.
Murray and Djokovic both had relatively easy times with their quarterfinal matches - the Scot's performance was probably the more impressive, because he was facing a tougher opponent in David Nalbandian, but he was effective from the very first ball, and Nalbandian was never really in the match. Djokovic had a relatively low-tier foe in Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, but he was up to the challenge.
On the other hand, Nadal strugged early on against an inspired Phillipp Kohlschreiber, but was able to gut out a win in three. Federer started better against Tomas Berdych, then seemed to slow down and very nearly lost the match. Berdych was up 5-2 in the third set, but his one-break lead evaporated and Federer pulled out the win in the tiebreak. This would have been a devastating loss for Fed, so you know he'll be inspired by this win.
Nadal meets Murray for the third time this year, and they split their previous two meetings. Murray won in Australia but Nadal won at Wimbledon. This match will hinge entirely on how Murray plays - if he's aggressive enough, he can beat Nadal, but if he sits back and lets Nadal dictate, then he's going to be out. Nadal will beat him every time if he tries to counterpunch. It should be an interesting match, though - Nadal is on an unbelievable tear this season, with only a single loss since April, at Queen's Club. On the other hand, Murray hasn't won a tournament yet this year. Two players with very divergent years, thus far. There's a lot on the line for both of them.
The other match is no less interesting, as Federer and Djokovic have meet more than a dozen times. Federer has the lead in the head to head, but Djokovic won their most recent match, which took place at the end of 2009. Neither player is having a great season recently, so whoever comes out on top is going to take a lot of confidence from their win. I think Federer has better form coming in, and he has to be energized by that win over Berdych. But Djokovic is the number two player in the world, stunningly, and he's - by the numbers - been the better player over the past year.
I still think a Federer-Nadal final is fairly likely, but none of the possible permutations that we could see come Sunday would be a complete shock, with four players of this caliber remaining in the tournament. Like I said before, it would be tough to ask for a more exciting line-up at this point.
Murray and Djokovic both had relatively easy times with their quarterfinal matches - the Scot's performance was probably the more impressive, because he was facing a tougher opponent in David Nalbandian, but he was effective from the very first ball, and Nalbandian was never really in the match. Djokovic had a relatively low-tier foe in Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, but he was up to the challenge.
On the other hand, Nadal strugged early on against an inspired Phillipp Kohlschreiber, but was able to gut out a win in three. Federer started better against Tomas Berdych, then seemed to slow down and very nearly lost the match. Berdych was up 5-2 in the third set, but his one-break lead evaporated and Federer pulled out the win in the tiebreak. This would have been a devastating loss for Fed, so you know he'll be inspired by this win.
Nadal meets Murray for the third time this year, and they split their previous two meetings. Murray won in Australia but Nadal won at Wimbledon. This match will hinge entirely on how Murray plays - if he's aggressive enough, he can beat Nadal, but if he sits back and lets Nadal dictate, then he's going to be out. Nadal will beat him every time if he tries to counterpunch. It should be an interesting match, though - Nadal is on an unbelievable tear this season, with only a single loss since April, at Queen's Club. On the other hand, Murray hasn't won a tournament yet this year. Two players with very divergent years, thus far. There's a lot on the line for both of them.
The other match is no less interesting, as Federer and Djokovic have meet more than a dozen times. Federer has the lead in the head to head, but Djokovic won their most recent match, which took place at the end of 2009. Neither player is having a great season recently, so whoever comes out on top is going to take a lot of confidence from their win. I think Federer has better form coming in, and he has to be energized by that win over Berdych. But Djokovic is the number two player in the world, stunningly, and he's - by the numbers - been the better player over the past year.
I still think a Federer-Nadal final is fairly likely, but none of the possible permutations that we could see come Sunday would be a complete shock, with four players of this caliber remaining in the tournament. Like I said before, it would be tough to ask for a more exciting line-up at this point.
Monday, July 5, 2010
Wimbledon Wrap-Up
After three years of magnificent, five-set finals at Wimbledon, we've finally had our first dud in a while. Despite the scorelines for the three sets being close, Berdych was never really in the match. Nadal actually did not play that well - he made a lot of unforced errors and only made a few of the trademark spectacular shots that he was making left and right against Andy Murray. His forehand, while heavy and spinny as ever, was not quite as easily placed as he would have liked - an unusual number of the Spaniard's usually reliable down-the-line shots drifted wide or long.
Despite the fact that Nadal's level of play was not as high as it's been during recent rounds, Berdych was unable to find his top gear as well. It would be one thing to come on court at the Wimbledon final and just get beaten by one of the best players the game's ever known. On the other hand, it's quite another to come out and not be able to muster your best tennis, because what other occasion is going to come along where it would be needed more?
Berdych was unable to play as well as he did against Federer or even Djokovic, and as a result, his defeat was all but assured. His other failure was an apparent unwillingness or inability to adopt another strategy when his initial gameplan was clearly unable to do the job against Nadal. Berdych tried to slug it out from the baseline, and when that didn't seem to work, he just kept on doing it. Credit to Berdych for playing so well that he made it this far, but it is disappointing that he couldn't do a bit better today.
It may have been that injury was troubling him, as he's pulled out of the Czech Republic's appearance in the Davis Cup this week. Nadal's done the same, but the loss for Spain - who has a very deep field and people of capable players to include - is not nearly so dear as the loss for the Czechs, who are already missing Radek Stepanek due to injury.
All in all, this Wimbledon fortnight had such an exciting and historic first week, that it was almost a guarantee that the second would be a letdown. There was some good tennis and a satisfying victor in the end, but aside from Roger Federer's defeat, there was nothing that really compared with the stunning action that absolutely littered the first six days of the tournament.
Almost everyone except Nadal and Serena are going to go away from this tournament disappointed - Yun-Hsun Lu is probably going to be happy for his run to the quarterfinals and his subsequent skyrocketing 40 places up in the ATP rankings, but everybody else has got to be thinking about missed opportunities. Falla and Bozoljiac could have beaten Federer, and Petszchner and Haase could have beaten Nadal. Surely, they will be encouraged by taking the game's best so close, but any excitement is leavened by the disappointment of not being able to seal the deal.
Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic fell short at the semifinal stage, once again. For players of their caliber, they won't be satisfied. They want to be in the finals, they want to win grand slams. And they certainly don't want to lose in straight sets on their way. For Andy Roddick, this is another chapter in the strange and mystifying history of the American losing heartbreaking fifth sets. I don't think it's indicative of anything new or worrisome for his progress, except that it's another chance he let get away. If he had beaten Lu in that fifth set, he really could have made a run at this title. Who knows if his draws will break so well in the coming years?
And Roger Federer drops to number three in the world this week, for the first time in seven years. With Nadal now the owner of two grand slams and three masters series shields this year, he has all but sealed up the year end number one ranking. It will be interesting to see if this loss, probably the most shocking in a year of shocking losses since the Australian Open, pumps up Fed or signals his waning interest in competing, day in and day out, in a sport that he so effortlessly dominated for more than half a decade.
While most players are taking the week (or month) off, or at least getting ready for the next round of Davis Cup, the tennis calendar marches on, and this week features the Hall of Fame championships in Newport, Rhode Island, the last grass court tournament of the year. They were kind enough to give Nicolas Mahut a wildcard (I expect he'll be getting a lot of these in the near future). It's actually an interesting field, but even though play begins tomorrow, I won't take an in-depth look until then. After spending two weeks getting up early to catch the tennis live, I need to catch up on my sleep.
Despite the fact that Nadal's level of play was not as high as it's been during recent rounds, Berdych was unable to find his top gear as well. It would be one thing to come on court at the Wimbledon final and just get beaten by one of the best players the game's ever known. On the other hand, it's quite another to come out and not be able to muster your best tennis, because what other occasion is going to come along where it would be needed more?
Berdych was unable to play as well as he did against Federer or even Djokovic, and as a result, his defeat was all but assured. His other failure was an apparent unwillingness or inability to adopt another strategy when his initial gameplan was clearly unable to do the job against Nadal. Berdych tried to slug it out from the baseline, and when that didn't seem to work, he just kept on doing it. Credit to Berdych for playing so well that he made it this far, but it is disappointing that he couldn't do a bit better today.
It may have been that injury was troubling him, as he's pulled out of the Czech Republic's appearance in the Davis Cup this week. Nadal's done the same, but the loss for Spain - who has a very deep field and people of capable players to include - is not nearly so dear as the loss for the Czechs, who are already missing Radek Stepanek due to injury.
All in all, this Wimbledon fortnight had such an exciting and historic first week, that it was almost a guarantee that the second would be a letdown. There was some good tennis and a satisfying victor in the end, but aside from Roger Federer's defeat, there was nothing that really compared with the stunning action that absolutely littered the first six days of the tournament.
Almost everyone except Nadal and Serena are going to go away from this tournament disappointed - Yun-Hsun Lu is probably going to be happy for his run to the quarterfinals and his subsequent skyrocketing 40 places up in the ATP rankings, but everybody else has got to be thinking about missed opportunities. Falla and Bozoljiac could have beaten Federer, and Petszchner and Haase could have beaten Nadal. Surely, they will be encouraged by taking the game's best so close, but any excitement is leavened by the disappointment of not being able to seal the deal.
Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic fell short at the semifinal stage, once again. For players of their caliber, they won't be satisfied. They want to be in the finals, they want to win grand slams. And they certainly don't want to lose in straight sets on their way. For Andy Roddick, this is another chapter in the strange and mystifying history of the American losing heartbreaking fifth sets. I don't think it's indicative of anything new or worrisome for his progress, except that it's another chance he let get away. If he had beaten Lu in that fifth set, he really could have made a run at this title. Who knows if his draws will break so well in the coming years?
And Roger Federer drops to number three in the world this week, for the first time in seven years. With Nadal now the owner of two grand slams and three masters series shields this year, he has all but sealed up the year end number one ranking. It will be interesting to see if this loss, probably the most shocking in a year of shocking losses since the Australian Open, pumps up Fed or signals his waning interest in competing, day in and day out, in a sport that he so effortlessly dominated for more than half a decade.
While most players are taking the week (or month) off, or at least getting ready for the next round of Davis Cup, the tennis calendar marches on, and this week features the Hall of Fame championships in Newport, Rhode Island, the last grass court tournament of the year. They were kind enough to give Nicolas Mahut a wildcard (I expect he'll be getting a lot of these in the near future). It's actually an interesting field, but even though play begins tomorrow, I won't take an in-depth look until then. After spending two weeks getting up early to catch the tennis live, I need to catch up on my sleep.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Wimbledon Final
The women's final this morning was - I'm sorry to say - a bit of a dud. Serena won, rather handily, as one might expect. I was glad to see Zvonareva free from meltdowns or crying fits, and she was respectful in her post-match comments. I think she was just happy to have made it that far - it's been the best two weeks of her career, for sure - and she wasn't going to let a little thing like losing to the best player in the women's game today. Unfortunately for Vera, the hits just kept on coming as she also lost in the doubles final to the unseeded duo King/Shvedova, and apparently she was unable to keep from breaking down in tears on court there. That's a shame.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's match between the men's finalists, there is a chance that we'll have a repeat performance. Nadal is 7-3 against Tomas Berdych, including winning the last six. The last time Berdych even took a set off Nadal was back in 2006. Now Berdych is playing the best two weeks of tennis he's ever put together - until last month's French Open, the Czech had only been past the fourth round of a grand slam once. And now he's in the Wimbledon final. Will he be able to rise to the occasion?
I hate to say it, but I'm afraid that he won't be able to meet the test of beating Rafael Nadal on this court, in a grand slam final. It's nothing like anything that Berdych has ever been a part of before. Berdych has five titles to his name, but the people he's beaten to win those titles are of a different sort of caliber of player than someone like Rafael Nadal, who is - without question - going down as one of the game's all-time greats.
Berdych was lucky to face Djokovic in the semis, because the Djoker had not been in particularly good form, while Nadal got a real test against Andy Murray. Considering that both matches were about equally difficult for the winners, Nadal's performance was significantly more impressive. If Nadal can manage that kind of form for three sets tomorrow, it's unlikely that Berdych will have any say in the outcome of the match.
This is not to say that Berdych doesn't have a shot. He'll need to play as well as he did against Roger Federer, if not even better, and he'll need to be able to keep it up for an entire match. He'll need to keep from being overcome by the situation, and mental toughness has not been a hallmark of his game. He's going to need to capitalize on every chance that he gets, because he's not going to get very many. It's a big ask for the big man, and I'll be honest - it's tough for me to see him pulling it off, all things considered. But that's why we play the game, after all. I didn't expect him to beat Federer, either, and he did that convincingly. We'll see what happens.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's match between the men's finalists, there is a chance that we'll have a repeat performance. Nadal is 7-3 against Tomas Berdych, including winning the last six. The last time Berdych even took a set off Nadal was back in 2006. Now Berdych is playing the best two weeks of tennis he's ever put together - until last month's French Open, the Czech had only been past the fourth round of a grand slam once. And now he's in the Wimbledon final. Will he be able to rise to the occasion?
I hate to say it, but I'm afraid that he won't be able to meet the test of beating Rafael Nadal on this court, in a grand slam final. It's nothing like anything that Berdych has ever been a part of before. Berdych has five titles to his name, but the people he's beaten to win those titles are of a different sort of caliber of player than someone like Rafael Nadal, who is - without question - going down as one of the game's all-time greats.
Berdych was lucky to face Djokovic in the semis, because the Djoker had not been in particularly good form, while Nadal got a real test against Andy Murray. Considering that both matches were about equally difficult for the winners, Nadal's performance was significantly more impressive. If Nadal can manage that kind of form for three sets tomorrow, it's unlikely that Berdych will have any say in the outcome of the match.
This is not to say that Berdych doesn't have a shot. He'll need to play as well as he did against Roger Federer, if not even better, and he'll need to be able to keep it up for an entire match. He'll need to keep from being overcome by the situation, and mental toughness has not been a hallmark of his game. He's going to need to capitalize on every chance that he gets, because he's not going to get very many. It's a big ask for the big man, and I'll be honest - it's tough for me to see him pulling it off, all things considered. But that's why we play the game, after all. I didn't expect him to beat Federer, either, and he did that convincingly. We'll see what happens.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Wimbledon Day 11
The men's semifinals are complete. Despite being two straight sets victories for the apparent favorites, they were fairly compelling matches, I have to say. Both featured one-break differences in the first and third sets, and very tight tiebreaks in the second. In general, the level of play from all four players was high, but ultimately, the two winners were able to perform more consistently and raise their games at the necessary moments.
Djokovic and Berdych both played some excellent points, but ultimately the biggest difference came down to serving acumen, and the tall Czech player was significantly stronger in this aspect of the game. Djokovic served too many double-faults, and he served them at crucial points in the match - on set point in the second set tiebreak and then at break point to allow Berdych to serve for the match in the third. This was despite some scintillating play to save (or allow Berdych to lose) four set points during that tiebreak. Ultimately, Djokovic has not played enough big matches of late, and this was the biggest one he had played in a very long time, while Berdych has become the surprise big-match player of the year.
The other semi was more hotly contested, though the scoreline is nearly identical. Murray had tens of thousands of his countrymen cheering him on, but that was not enough to get him past the lightning quick movement and bludgeoning forehand of Rafael Nadal. There were several moments in the match where Murray almost made that kind of stunning, game-changing shot that turned the tides of his matches against John Isner and Marin Cilic at the U.S. Open - highlight reel stuff that pumps him up and demoralizes his opponent. But at every instance, Nadal was ready and waiting to return one amazing near-winner with a slightly better reply.
Nadal looked the best he's looked all tournament, skipping around the court so quickly and lightly that it's easy to forget he was slogging his way through the French Open just a month ago, knee-deep in red clay. His forehand was unbelievable - he unleashed on a few shots that, to borrow a phrase from another sport, nearly "tore the cover off the ball." Despite the fact that he's going up against one of the bigger hitters on tour in the final, I find it unlikely that Berdych is going to be able to out-hit Nadal, if he plays this way.
As for tomorrow's women's final, Serena Williams is the clear favorite. No matter how different Zvonareva has looked this week, no matter how stunning her performance in her run to the final, it's nearly impossible to beat Serena in a grand slam final. Maria Sharapova has done it once and her own sister has done it twice, but that's it. Zvonareva's run to the final has been a combination of some mysterious force or event settling her brain, along with a draw that opened up for her at the right points, and some really excellent play when it was required. But I don't know if that will be enough to get her past Serena Williams.
The most dangerous thing for Serena is to assume that is already true, though. Zvonareva's best chance is to surprise the defending champion, catch her off-guard, and hopefully send her reeling long enough to land the knock-out blow. Zvonareva will have to play the match of her life, and Serena will have to be a little bit off her game, for the Russian to manage the upset. It's definitely unlikely, but I wouldn't say it's beyond the realm of possibility. We'll see what happens.
Djokovic and Berdych both played some excellent points, but ultimately the biggest difference came down to serving acumen, and the tall Czech player was significantly stronger in this aspect of the game. Djokovic served too many double-faults, and he served them at crucial points in the match - on set point in the second set tiebreak and then at break point to allow Berdych to serve for the match in the third. This was despite some scintillating play to save (or allow Berdych to lose) four set points during that tiebreak. Ultimately, Djokovic has not played enough big matches of late, and this was the biggest one he had played in a very long time, while Berdych has become the surprise big-match player of the year.
The other semi was more hotly contested, though the scoreline is nearly identical. Murray had tens of thousands of his countrymen cheering him on, but that was not enough to get him past the lightning quick movement and bludgeoning forehand of Rafael Nadal. There were several moments in the match where Murray almost made that kind of stunning, game-changing shot that turned the tides of his matches against John Isner and Marin Cilic at the U.S. Open - highlight reel stuff that pumps him up and demoralizes his opponent. But at every instance, Nadal was ready and waiting to return one amazing near-winner with a slightly better reply.
Nadal looked the best he's looked all tournament, skipping around the court so quickly and lightly that it's easy to forget he was slogging his way through the French Open just a month ago, knee-deep in red clay. His forehand was unbelievable - he unleashed on a few shots that, to borrow a phrase from another sport, nearly "tore the cover off the ball." Despite the fact that he's going up against one of the bigger hitters on tour in the final, I find it unlikely that Berdych is going to be able to out-hit Nadal, if he plays this way.
As for tomorrow's women's final, Serena Williams is the clear favorite. No matter how different Zvonareva has looked this week, no matter how stunning her performance in her run to the final, it's nearly impossible to beat Serena in a grand slam final. Maria Sharapova has done it once and her own sister has done it twice, but that's it. Zvonareva's run to the final has been a combination of some mysterious force or event settling her brain, along with a draw that opened up for her at the right points, and some really excellent play when it was required. But I don't know if that will be enough to get her past Serena Williams.
The most dangerous thing for Serena is to assume that is already true, though. Zvonareva's best chance is to surprise the defending champion, catch her off-guard, and hopefully send her reeling long enough to land the knock-out blow. Zvonareva will have to play the match of her life, and Serena will have to be a little bit off her game, for the Russian to manage the upset. It's definitely unlikely, but I wouldn't say it's beyond the realm of possibility. We'll see what happens.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Wimbledon Days 9 and 10
We're all set for the women's final. I think if you had been told a few weeks ago that a Russian was going to make it to the final at Wimbledon, your list would probably have included Dementieva, Safina, Kuznetsova, maybe Petrova or Kleybanova, maybe even Kirilenko. But Zvonareva looked like she was on the road to total mental breakdown - I was on-site when I saw her play her match at the U.S. Open last year against Flavia Pennetta, where she completely broke down, started bawling on court, and tried to remove her knee wrappings. After that, it was hard to imagine her keeping herself together for a run like this one.
But she's played very well, in upsetting Kim Clijsters and then facing an in-form Bulgarian Pironkova. I was very impressed with her performance, I have to say. She served well and kept her errors to a minimum. Her play was pretty much unrecognizable from the time I watched her on center court nine months ago. She even upset the Williams sisters in doubles this week, as part of the first team to beat the Williams sisters in more than a year. This could be her week - but having to face Serena in the final is no easy task. I'll have more to say about that tomorrow.
The men's semifinals will take place tomorrow, and just like in the quarterfinals, there is one name missing. One side features Nadal and Murray, who both overcome less than ideal starts (though Nadal's was much slower) to beat their quarterfinal opponents in four sets. That's what everyone expected heading into the tournament. And on the other side, Djokovic is in the quarterfinals, which was essentially a guarantee as soon as he beat Hewitt and Roddick flamed out. But facing him, rather than defending champion and seven-time defending finalist Roger Federer, we have the big Czech phenom, Tomas Berdych!
That was an amazing match, honestly. The quarterfinals were generally good (none were classics, but all were interesting in their own way) but Berdych's display was unlike anything I'd ever seen from the big man. At least, it was unlike anything I'd seen from him before in that he maintained his amazing level of play until he had sealed the deal. Before, I've seen him play that well, only to collapse and give it away (see Australian Open 2008). This time Berdych managed to keep up his stellar level of play even when it looked like he might fade away. It wasn't like the match he played against Federer earlier in the year, which Federer essentially gave away with errors and shanked forehands. Berdych played well enough to take this match from the former world number one, who will - shockingly - drop to number three next week.
As for tomorrow's match-ups, Djokovic has not played especially well this fortnight, and has found himself in the semifinals thanks to some intermittent good point and an undeniably favorable draw. He took full advantage of meeting Yen-Hsun Lu in the quarterfinals, dispatching of him easily, but is that the best preparation for a player who just upset Roger Federer? Djokovic is 2-0 against Berdych, but it's hard to say that's enough to really predict the winner of tomorrow's match. Berdych is almost the favorite to win it, at this point. It should be interesting to see if Berdych can keep rolling, or if Djokovic will find his game and make his first Grand Slam final since winning the Australian Open in 2008.
But Nadal-Murray, now that's a tough one to pick. Andy Murray's progress at Wimbledon has been interesting. He's played four times, and each time, he made it a round further. In 2008, he made the quarterfinals after winning a stunning comeback against Richard Gasquet in the 4th round. At that point, he was clearly exhausted and lost to Nadal. They also played at the Australian Open the year before, where Nadal won a long, grinding match, which Murray only lost on fitness, not talent. This year, at the Australian Open, it went the other way, as Nadal's knees gave out on him and Murray made it through.
These two have quite a history, as you can tell, and whichever one of them wins in the semifinals will be the favorite to win the tournament. Nadal, though he may not be 100% fit, just dominated the French Open and still hasn't lost a match here since 2007. In fact, he hasn't lost to anyone not named Federer at Wimbledon since 2005. I'm really excited about this match - can Nadal make the final again, all but sealing his place as World Number One at the end of the year, or will Murray fulfill the British hopes and make it to the final, something that Tim Henman could never do?
There are so many storylines converging in this one match, so many angles - and it's worth noting that these are two stellar tennis players, both at or very near the height of their power. It should be a lot of fun to watch. Here's hoping for a pair of good matches and that no one gets hurt.
But she's played very well, in upsetting Kim Clijsters and then facing an in-form Bulgarian Pironkova. I was very impressed with her performance, I have to say. She served well and kept her errors to a minimum. Her play was pretty much unrecognizable from the time I watched her on center court nine months ago. She even upset the Williams sisters in doubles this week, as part of the first team to beat the Williams sisters in more than a year. This could be her week - but having to face Serena in the final is no easy task. I'll have more to say about that tomorrow.
The men's semifinals will take place tomorrow, and just like in the quarterfinals, there is one name missing. One side features Nadal and Murray, who both overcome less than ideal starts (though Nadal's was much slower) to beat their quarterfinal opponents in four sets. That's what everyone expected heading into the tournament. And on the other side, Djokovic is in the quarterfinals, which was essentially a guarantee as soon as he beat Hewitt and Roddick flamed out. But facing him, rather than defending champion and seven-time defending finalist Roger Federer, we have the big Czech phenom, Tomas Berdych!
That was an amazing match, honestly. The quarterfinals were generally good (none were classics, but all were interesting in their own way) but Berdych's display was unlike anything I'd ever seen from the big man. At least, it was unlike anything I'd seen from him before in that he maintained his amazing level of play until he had sealed the deal. Before, I've seen him play that well, only to collapse and give it away (see Australian Open 2008). This time Berdych managed to keep up his stellar level of play even when it looked like he might fade away. It wasn't like the match he played against Federer earlier in the year, which Federer essentially gave away with errors and shanked forehands. Berdych played well enough to take this match from the former world number one, who will - shockingly - drop to number three next week.
As for tomorrow's match-ups, Djokovic has not played especially well this fortnight, and has found himself in the semifinals thanks to some intermittent good point and an undeniably favorable draw. He took full advantage of meeting Yen-Hsun Lu in the quarterfinals, dispatching of him easily, but is that the best preparation for a player who just upset Roger Federer? Djokovic is 2-0 against Berdych, but it's hard to say that's enough to really predict the winner of tomorrow's match. Berdych is almost the favorite to win it, at this point. It should be interesting to see if Berdych can keep rolling, or if Djokovic will find his game and make his first Grand Slam final since winning the Australian Open in 2008.
But Nadal-Murray, now that's a tough one to pick. Andy Murray's progress at Wimbledon has been interesting. He's played four times, and each time, he made it a round further. In 2008, he made the quarterfinals after winning a stunning comeback against Richard Gasquet in the 4th round. At that point, he was clearly exhausted and lost to Nadal. They also played at the Australian Open the year before, where Nadal won a long, grinding match, which Murray only lost on fitness, not talent. This year, at the Australian Open, it went the other way, as Nadal's knees gave out on him and Murray made it through.
These two have quite a history, as you can tell, and whichever one of them wins in the semifinals will be the favorite to win the tournament. Nadal, though he may not be 100% fit, just dominated the French Open and still hasn't lost a match here since 2007. In fact, he hasn't lost to anyone not named Federer at Wimbledon since 2005. I'm really excited about this match - can Nadal make the final again, all but sealing his place as World Number One at the end of the year, or will Murray fulfill the British hopes and make it to the final, something that Tim Henman could never do?
There are so many storylines converging in this one match, so many angles - and it's worth noting that these are two stellar tennis players, both at or very near the height of their power. It should be a lot of fun to watch. Here's hoping for a pair of good matches and that no one gets hurt.
Monday, June 7, 2010
French Open Wrap-up and Week 23 Preview
So the French Open is now done and dusted. Now that it's over, it almost seems like the outcome was never in doubt. Nadal won the tournament for the fifth time - and for the second time without losing a set in 7 matches. Soderling could not maintain the level of play he had last year when he beat Nadal or this year when he beat Federer. It may have been the pressure of the moment, but Nadal never had to find his top gear to win comfortably. If Soderling could play at that level more consistently, there's no reason he couldn't be in the very top tier of players on tour, but he can't. He hasn't shown the ability to in the past, and I don't expect he ever will.
But he's still an amazing player and should be in the top ten for several more years, assuming he avoids injury. I just don't see him winning a grand slam any time soon until he can work on his consistency.
As for Nadal, order is restored. He demolished the field and showed that he is healthy. He played a smarter clay court season, and maintained his health through it all as a result. Nobody had won all three clay masters tournaments and the French Open before, so that's another record Nadal owns. His prowess on the surface is almost difficult to believe. Tomorrow, when the rankings are out, I should have more to say on that. But for now, let's see how well he adjusts to the grass season, which starts this week and ends in a month.
The two tournaments taking place this week are in London (which I will refer to as Queens Club in the tags for this post, to distinguish it from London's year end championships) and in Halle, Germany. Both tournaments are fairly well stacked, since this is the only lead-up to Wimbledon, except for the (relatively few) players who don't want to take next week off. Soderling is - understandably - sitting the week our, and Del Potro is still injured. Tsonga and Verdasco are also sitting out, but everyone else in the top ten is in action.
The tournaments are actually very lopsided. Federer and Davydenko are in Halle, while Nadal, Murray, Djokovic, and Roddick are all at Queens Club. I'll take a look at Halle first, since it should go quicker.
In Halle, Federer is the top seed and massive favorite. The player who beat him here last year, Tommy Haas, is not in the draw, and only two other people have ever beaten Federer in his eight appearances here. Pat Rafter obviously won't be showing, and even though Nicolas Kiefer got a wildcard, he isn't playing at the level he had reached back in 2003. Federer does have a moderately difficult opener, against the Finn Jarkko Nieminen, but he has been struggling with getting his game back together after missing most of last year with injury. After that, Federer could get Kohlschreiber, Stepanek, Rochus, or Chiudinelli in the third round, which is a pretty tough part of the draw. His opponent in the semifinals will likely be Marcos Baghdatis or Juan Carlos Ferrero, but Jeremy Chardy and Viktor Troicki are potential darkhorses in that section.
The other half of the draw also has tough customers. In addition to second seed Davydenko, Jurgen Melzer is here, whose net-rushing strategy should serve him well on grass. And despite the fact that he's a four-time champion at Queens, Lleyton Hewitt is here. He has a tough opener against fellow Aussie Peter Luczak. The other players to watch in that half of the draw are Mikhail Youzhny, the afore-mentioned Nicolas Kiefer, and Thiemo De Bakker, who prefers clay, but should be able to adapt his game for grass, eventually. Look for some more exciting matches starting in the third round.
Queens is a bigger tournament, so the top eight seeds get first-round byes. Nadal is - of course - the top seed here, and he was the champion back in 2008. Murray won here last year, and he ended up in Nadal's half of the draw. The other two top seeds are Djokovic and Roddick, who get the other half.
Nadal really got a cupcake of a draw, which he deserves after winning in Paris, and I would be shocked if anyone beat him before the semifinals. The other seeds in his section are Denis Istomin, Julien Benneteau, and Feliciano Lopez, who is actually the best grass-courter of the bunch. Other than that, he has the Canadian number one and the Jamaican number one in his quarter, and they play each other in the first round! I like both of those players (Dancevic and Brown) but I don't think they're ever going to be top-level guys. Taylor Dent is there, and I'm sure he's thrilled that the grass-court season is finally underway. And in one of the first-round matches I'm most excited about, Grigor Dimitrov (one of the excellent wildcards the tournament gave out) plays British qualifier Bogdanovic. Still, I don't see anyone getting to Nadal out of that group.
Murray's quarter is not a lot tougher, at least until the quarterfinal. The only other contender in this section is Marin Cilic, as the other seeded players are Giraldo and Llodra. Murray-Cilic would be a good match in the quarters, but the other players in the way are less likely to pose as threats. Mardy Fish is there, as well as one of the other great wildcards, Ryan Harrison, who opens against another American, Jesse Levine. Frenchman Nicolas Mahut also really likes grass, and Mardy Fish could do well here. It's no guarantee that Murray will come through, but he's definitely the favorite.
Andy Roddick, in the third quarter, has won this tournament four times. He'll have his hands full trying to get a fifth win, though. His quarter has some tricky customers, as well as the best opening round match: Kei Nishikori against Richard Gasquet. That should be fun to see. That section also has Dudi Sela and Gael Monfils, who I hope is injury-free. I see Roddick making it through to the quarters for sure, though. He may not be exactly match-tough, considering how little he's played in the last few months, but he's one of the best grass-court players of this generation, so he's going to be happy to be back on the surface.
I'm not sure what to expect from Novak Djokovic, the second seed and top player in his quarter of the draw. The way he bowed at the French Open was really discouraging. He just hasn't been the same this year since the first round of the Davis Cup. His section of the draw has some potentially tricky players, but he should be able to make it through to the quarters. Sam Querrey would be his opponent there, and I'm hoping that Sam has gotten his focus back after some time at home. Djokovic could also have to go through Janko Tipsarevic and Andreas Seppi, the other seeds. That section also has Robbie Ginepri, Michael Russell, Dmitry Tursunov, and the third excellent wildcard recipient, Bernard Tomic. It should be Querrey-Djokovic in the quarters, all the same.
It's always fun to see the transition from clay to grass. It's so sudden, and the reactions are so varied. Some players are absolutely thrilled, while others wish the clay season lasted all year. The contrast in playing styles and effective strategies gets drawn into sharp relief, and it's another of my favorite moments in the tennis calendar.
But he's still an amazing player and should be in the top ten for several more years, assuming he avoids injury. I just don't see him winning a grand slam any time soon until he can work on his consistency.
As for Nadal, order is restored. He demolished the field and showed that he is healthy. He played a smarter clay court season, and maintained his health through it all as a result. Nobody had won all three clay masters tournaments and the French Open before, so that's another record Nadal owns. His prowess on the surface is almost difficult to believe. Tomorrow, when the rankings are out, I should have more to say on that. But for now, let's see how well he adjusts to the grass season, which starts this week and ends in a month.
The two tournaments taking place this week are in London (which I will refer to as Queens Club in the tags for this post, to distinguish it from London's year end championships) and in Halle, Germany. Both tournaments are fairly well stacked, since this is the only lead-up to Wimbledon, except for the (relatively few) players who don't want to take next week off. Soderling is - understandably - sitting the week our, and Del Potro is still injured. Tsonga and Verdasco are also sitting out, but everyone else in the top ten is in action.
The tournaments are actually very lopsided. Federer and Davydenko are in Halle, while Nadal, Murray, Djokovic, and Roddick are all at Queens Club. I'll take a look at Halle first, since it should go quicker.
In Halle, Federer is the top seed and massive favorite. The player who beat him here last year, Tommy Haas, is not in the draw, and only two other people have ever beaten Federer in his eight appearances here. Pat Rafter obviously won't be showing, and even though Nicolas Kiefer got a wildcard, he isn't playing at the level he had reached back in 2003. Federer does have a moderately difficult opener, against the Finn Jarkko Nieminen, but he has been struggling with getting his game back together after missing most of last year with injury. After that, Federer could get Kohlschreiber, Stepanek, Rochus, or Chiudinelli in the third round, which is a pretty tough part of the draw. His opponent in the semifinals will likely be Marcos Baghdatis or Juan Carlos Ferrero, but Jeremy Chardy and Viktor Troicki are potential darkhorses in that section.
The other half of the draw also has tough customers. In addition to second seed Davydenko, Jurgen Melzer is here, whose net-rushing strategy should serve him well on grass. And despite the fact that he's a four-time champion at Queens, Lleyton Hewitt is here. He has a tough opener against fellow Aussie Peter Luczak. The other players to watch in that half of the draw are Mikhail Youzhny, the afore-mentioned Nicolas Kiefer, and Thiemo De Bakker, who prefers clay, but should be able to adapt his game for grass, eventually. Look for some more exciting matches starting in the third round.
Queens is a bigger tournament, so the top eight seeds get first-round byes. Nadal is - of course - the top seed here, and he was the champion back in 2008. Murray won here last year, and he ended up in Nadal's half of the draw. The other two top seeds are Djokovic and Roddick, who get the other half.
Nadal really got a cupcake of a draw, which he deserves after winning in Paris, and I would be shocked if anyone beat him before the semifinals. The other seeds in his section are Denis Istomin, Julien Benneteau, and Feliciano Lopez, who is actually the best grass-courter of the bunch. Other than that, he has the Canadian number one and the Jamaican number one in his quarter, and they play each other in the first round! I like both of those players (Dancevic and Brown) but I don't think they're ever going to be top-level guys. Taylor Dent is there, and I'm sure he's thrilled that the grass-court season is finally underway. And in one of the first-round matches I'm most excited about, Grigor Dimitrov (one of the excellent wildcards the tournament gave out) plays British qualifier Bogdanovic. Still, I don't see anyone getting to Nadal out of that group.
Murray's quarter is not a lot tougher, at least until the quarterfinal. The only other contender in this section is Marin Cilic, as the other seeded players are Giraldo and Llodra. Murray-Cilic would be a good match in the quarters, but the other players in the way are less likely to pose as threats. Mardy Fish is there, as well as one of the other great wildcards, Ryan Harrison, who opens against another American, Jesse Levine. Frenchman Nicolas Mahut also really likes grass, and Mardy Fish could do well here. It's no guarantee that Murray will come through, but he's definitely the favorite.
Andy Roddick, in the third quarter, has won this tournament four times. He'll have his hands full trying to get a fifth win, though. His quarter has some tricky customers, as well as the best opening round match: Kei Nishikori against Richard Gasquet. That should be fun to see. That section also has Dudi Sela and Gael Monfils, who I hope is injury-free. I see Roddick making it through to the quarters for sure, though. He may not be exactly match-tough, considering how little he's played in the last few months, but he's one of the best grass-court players of this generation, so he's going to be happy to be back on the surface.
I'm not sure what to expect from Novak Djokovic, the second seed and top player in his quarter of the draw. The way he bowed at the French Open was really discouraging. He just hasn't been the same this year since the first round of the Davis Cup. His section of the draw has some potentially tricky players, but he should be able to make it through to the quarters. Sam Querrey would be his opponent there, and I'm hoping that Sam has gotten his focus back after some time at home. Djokovic could also have to go through Janko Tipsarevic and Andreas Seppi, the other seeds. That section also has Robbie Ginepri, Michael Russell, Dmitry Tursunov, and the third excellent wildcard recipient, Bernard Tomic. It should be Querrey-Djokovic in the quarters, all the same.
It's always fun to see the transition from clay to grass. It's so sudden, and the reactions are so varied. Some players are absolutely thrilled, while others wish the clay season lasted all year. The contrast in playing styles and effective strategies gets drawn into sharp relief, and it's another of my favorite moments in the tennis calendar.
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Women's Final Wrap-up and Men's Final Preview
The women's final was something of a letdown. I think it's fair to say that Sam Stosur was overwhelmed by the occasion. Her forehand was not on at all. That shot was hitting winner after winner in her matches against Henin, Williams, and Jankovic, and when she tried to hit through it today, she couldn't keep it in the court. She wasn't serving as well as she had been, either. And the real killer was that she couldn't volley to save her life. Stosur, who used to be a doubles specialist, was incredibly heavy-handed at net.
On the other hand, Schiavone absolute rose to the occasion. She played as well as she had all week, and it was more than enough to handle a very tight Sam Stosur. Kudos to the Italian, who pulled off an amazing run this week. This is probably the most surprising Grand Slam winner on either the men's or women's side in many years. Schiavone played amazingly in Fed Cup last year, but her performance in the Grand Slams had been mostly unremarkable. Prior to this, she'd made only three quarterfinals since 2000. Really great win for the veteran player, and she no doubt deserved it.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's final between Robin Soderling and Rafael Nadal - it's probably the most exciting final which wasn't between Federer and Nadal in the better part of a decade. Nadal leads the head to head 3-2, including a fairly one-sided match at Roland Garros in 2006, an animosity-fueled Wimbledon match in 2007, and a brutal drubbing at a Masters event on clay in 2009. But Soderling has won the last two, including last year's stunning upset at the French Open, which Soderling followed up with a very one-sided victory at the year-end championships.
Nadal says that this isn't about revenge, and that may be true. But if there's any player that a guy as mellow and friendly as Nadal might bear some ill-will against, it would be Soderling. Here's my impression of how the match will play out. If Soderling plays as well as he did against Federer, Nadal will have to play his best tennis - a level of tennis he hasn't really shown so far this fortnight - in order to win. But if both players play as well as they did in their semifinal matches, Nadal will win. If both players are firing on all cylinders, Nadal's going to win. Soderling has shown some amazing skill here at Roland Garros, but when he beat Nadal, the Spaniard wasn't at his best.
And it's worth repeating how much is riding on this match. If Nadal wins, he gets back to number one in the world, bumping Federer to number two while the Swiss is just one week shy of matching Pete Sampras's record for weeks at the number one ranking. And since Nadal has almost no points to defend over the course of the summer - it would be difficult for Federer to get that ranking back for the foreseeable future. It also would mark the end of Federer's streak of either winning a tournament or losing to the eventual winner. So there is a great deal at stake tomorrow involving players who aren't even setting foot on court.
I think that Soderling will come to play tomorrow. He wasn't really in the final last year at any point, and I think that was all due to his attitude. But I expect that - since he's been to a final before, he'll be more able to adapt to the situation. He'll be fired up, but not nervous. I like to think that the Swede has ice in his veins. On the other hand, Nadal is going to incredibly eager. He knows that Soderling is a threat, unlike Melzer was in the semifinals. And I think Nadal benefited from a relatively easy semifinal match, where Soderling had to toil on court for five sets.
I think that this match could go either way, but Soderling will have to play at an incredibly high level for a very long time in order to beat Nadal. He won't have as easy a time of it as he did last year, even if he plays that well. I'm really looking forward it, to see how the players handle the pressure.
On the other hand, Schiavone absolute rose to the occasion. She played as well as she had all week, and it was more than enough to handle a very tight Sam Stosur. Kudos to the Italian, who pulled off an amazing run this week. This is probably the most surprising Grand Slam winner on either the men's or women's side in many years. Schiavone played amazingly in Fed Cup last year, but her performance in the Grand Slams had been mostly unremarkable. Prior to this, she'd made only three quarterfinals since 2000. Really great win for the veteran player, and she no doubt deserved it.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's final between Robin Soderling and Rafael Nadal - it's probably the most exciting final which wasn't between Federer and Nadal in the better part of a decade. Nadal leads the head to head 3-2, including a fairly one-sided match at Roland Garros in 2006, an animosity-fueled Wimbledon match in 2007, and a brutal drubbing at a Masters event on clay in 2009. But Soderling has won the last two, including last year's stunning upset at the French Open, which Soderling followed up with a very one-sided victory at the year-end championships.
Nadal says that this isn't about revenge, and that may be true. But if there's any player that a guy as mellow and friendly as Nadal might bear some ill-will against, it would be Soderling. Here's my impression of how the match will play out. If Soderling plays as well as he did against Federer, Nadal will have to play his best tennis - a level of tennis he hasn't really shown so far this fortnight - in order to win. But if both players play as well as they did in their semifinal matches, Nadal will win. If both players are firing on all cylinders, Nadal's going to win. Soderling has shown some amazing skill here at Roland Garros, but when he beat Nadal, the Spaniard wasn't at his best.
And it's worth repeating how much is riding on this match. If Nadal wins, he gets back to number one in the world, bumping Federer to number two while the Swiss is just one week shy of matching Pete Sampras's record for weeks at the number one ranking. And since Nadal has almost no points to defend over the course of the summer - it would be difficult for Federer to get that ranking back for the foreseeable future. It also would mark the end of Federer's streak of either winning a tournament or losing to the eventual winner. So there is a great deal at stake tomorrow involving players who aren't even setting foot on court.
I think that Soderling will come to play tomorrow. He wasn't really in the final last year at any point, and I think that was all due to his attitude. But I expect that - since he's been to a final before, he'll be more able to adapt to the situation. He'll be fired up, but not nervous. I like to think that the Swede has ice in his veins. On the other hand, Nadal is going to incredibly eager. He knows that Soderling is a threat, unlike Melzer was in the semifinals. And I think Nadal benefited from a relatively easy semifinal match, where Soderling had to toil on court for five sets.
I think that this match could go either way, but Soderling will have to play at an incredibly high level for a very long time in order to beat Nadal. He won't have as easy a time of it as he did last year, even if he plays that well. I'm really looking forward it, to see how the players handle the pressure.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Semifinals Complete
The lineup for both the men's and women's finals has been determined. The men's semifinals, which both took place today, went about as expected. It was a great pair of matches, even though the results were just about what one might have expected, going in.
The closer of the two matches was definitely Berdych-Soderling. It was five sets of big-hitting tennis, with some really strong shot-making by both players. Soderling started out on fire, playing at a similar level to the one he maintained against Roger Federer. Berdych couldn't quite hang with him, and he managed to break him once and win the set. But after that, it was Soderling's level that dipped in the next two sets, and Berdych was able to go up by two sets to one. At that point, the old Berdych we were so familiar with showed his face. On the verge of making his first grand slam final, he got tight. Meanwhile, Soderling found his game again - he never quite got back to the level he played against Federer again, but it was more than enough to handle the somewhat shaky Czech. When all was said and done, he got through to his second consecutive French Open final in five sets.
Nadal's match had significantly fewer twists and turns. He was in command from the word go, and it looked like he was going to have an exceptionally straightforward win until he seemed to start hot-dogging just a little bit at the end of the third set. He was going for unreasonably tough shots, possibly trying to give the French fans more of a show. He ended up getting broken while serving for a spot in the finals, when Melzer started playing his best tennis of the entire match. He broke, and got up an early mini-break in the tiebreak. But in the end, Rafa restored order and ended up winning in three, as expected.
So really, a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final is almost as exciting as Federer-Nadal. While Roger and Rafa have immense respect for each other on and off the court, I believe it to the case that Rafa and Robin actively dislike each other. Nadal will be looking for some revenge, no doubt. More on that match-up tomorrow.
The women's final is tomorrow as well, and that features an extremely surprising pair of finalists. Sam Stosur and Francesca Schiavone should be an interesting match, even if it doesn't have the star power of some recent finals. I expect that Stosur will overpower the crafty and versatile Italian, but Schiavone also could be a better big-match player than the Aussie. Schiavone seems to thrive on playing to the crowd, as she demonstrated earlier in the week by dropping to her feet and kissing the clay after one of her wins. She may have the crowd behind her, but it probably won't be enough to blunt the power of Sam Stosur. It would be one of the greatest surprise wins and culminations of a crazy two weeks of tennis that we've seen in years on either the men's or women's side.
The closer of the two matches was definitely Berdych-Soderling. It was five sets of big-hitting tennis, with some really strong shot-making by both players. Soderling started out on fire, playing at a similar level to the one he maintained against Roger Federer. Berdych couldn't quite hang with him, and he managed to break him once and win the set. But after that, it was Soderling's level that dipped in the next two sets, and Berdych was able to go up by two sets to one. At that point, the old Berdych we were so familiar with showed his face. On the verge of making his first grand slam final, he got tight. Meanwhile, Soderling found his game again - he never quite got back to the level he played against Federer again, but it was more than enough to handle the somewhat shaky Czech. When all was said and done, he got through to his second consecutive French Open final in five sets.
Nadal's match had significantly fewer twists and turns. He was in command from the word go, and it looked like he was going to have an exceptionally straightforward win until he seemed to start hot-dogging just a little bit at the end of the third set. He was going for unreasonably tough shots, possibly trying to give the French fans more of a show. He ended up getting broken while serving for a spot in the finals, when Melzer started playing his best tennis of the entire match. He broke, and got up an early mini-break in the tiebreak. But in the end, Rafa restored order and ended up winning in three, as expected.
So really, a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final is almost as exciting as Federer-Nadal. While Roger and Rafa have immense respect for each other on and off the court, I believe it to the case that Rafa and Robin actively dislike each other. Nadal will be looking for some revenge, no doubt. More on that match-up tomorrow.
The women's final is tomorrow as well, and that features an extremely surprising pair of finalists. Sam Stosur and Francesca Schiavone should be an interesting match, even if it doesn't have the star power of some recent finals. I expect that Stosur will overpower the crafty and versatile Italian, but Schiavone also could be a better big-match player than the Aussie. Schiavone seems to thrive on playing to the crowd, as she demonstrated earlier in the week by dropping to her feet and kissing the clay after one of her wins. She may have the crowd behind her, but it probably won't be enough to blunt the power of Sam Stosur. It would be one of the greatest surprise wins and culminations of a crazy two weeks of tennis that we've seen in years on either the men's or women's side.
Friday, June 4, 2010
French Open Semifnals
Well, the women's semifinals are complete, and they were a bit anti-climactic. Dementieva was troubled with some sort of injury, and despite holding tough for a whole set, which she lost in a tiebreak, she was forced to retire without playing through the rest of the match. It's always a shame to be struggling with an injury at such an important stage. And apparently the shortened match had some effect on Jelena Jankovic's preparation, because she was not able to get up for her match against Sam Stosur. Both of the favorites lost in the semis, so it's a very surprising final pairing: two first-time finalists in Australian Sam Stosur and Italian Francesca Schiavone. Anybody who had those two in their bracket gets kudos from me.
Here's hoping that the men's semifinals, taking place tomorrow, are a bit more exciting. I'll put my money on the fact that they will be.
The first match features Tomas Berdych and Robin Soderling, two really big-hitting guys. Soderling leads the head to head 5-3, and they're 1-1 on clay. It's also worth noting that Berdych won their last meeting, earlier this year, by the score of 6-2, 6-2. Both players have been blowing their opponents off the court up to this point in the tournament. Soderling has dropped two sets to Berdych's zero, but Soderling has faced the stiffer competition, not least of which was his win over Federer in the quarterfinals. I think the way Soderling reacts to that win will determine the outcome of this match, in large part: if Soderling is satisfied with getting that win, Berdych will probably be able to beat him tomorrow. But if he's inspired by it, then I give him the edge. It's an exciting pairing - look for plenty of big hitting, but not a lot of long rallies. Soderling really should have the advantage, as he can move and defend better, while he can hit just as big.
I'll be surprised if the second semifinal is as competitive. Credit to Jurgen Melzer for making it this far, but his Cindarella story ends here. Melzer has only played Nadal twice, and in those four sets he's won a total of eight games. Nadal is now the only slam winner left in the field, and he's the sort of player who will take that as a chance to get more focused, rather than letting his focus drop. He wants his French Open title back, and he has a really good chance to get it back. It would be fascinating to see a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final.
But first, both of them have to win. I think there's a chance that Nadal will find Tomas Berdych on the other side of the net, but I'd be shocked if either Soderling or Berdych gets Melzer. I think it would take a pretty major injury to Nadal for him to lose to Jurgen. Fingers crossed that won't happen.
Here's hoping that the men's semifinals, taking place tomorrow, are a bit more exciting. I'll put my money on the fact that they will be.
The first match features Tomas Berdych and Robin Soderling, two really big-hitting guys. Soderling leads the head to head 5-3, and they're 1-1 on clay. It's also worth noting that Berdych won their last meeting, earlier this year, by the score of 6-2, 6-2. Both players have been blowing their opponents off the court up to this point in the tournament. Soderling has dropped two sets to Berdych's zero, but Soderling has faced the stiffer competition, not least of which was his win over Federer in the quarterfinals. I think the way Soderling reacts to that win will determine the outcome of this match, in large part: if Soderling is satisfied with getting that win, Berdych will probably be able to beat him tomorrow. But if he's inspired by it, then I give him the edge. It's an exciting pairing - look for plenty of big hitting, but not a lot of long rallies. Soderling really should have the advantage, as he can move and defend better, while he can hit just as big.
I'll be surprised if the second semifinal is as competitive. Credit to Jurgen Melzer for making it this far, but his Cindarella story ends here. Melzer has only played Nadal twice, and in those four sets he's won a total of eight games. Nadal is now the only slam winner left in the field, and he's the sort of player who will take that as a chance to get more focused, rather than letting his focus drop. He wants his French Open title back, and he has a really good chance to get it back. It would be fascinating to see a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final.
But first, both of them have to win. I think there's a chance that Nadal will find Tomas Berdych on the other side of the net, but I'd be shocked if either Soderling or Berdych gets Melzer. I think it would take a pretty major injury to Nadal for him to lose to Jurgen. Fingers crossed that won't happen.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Madrid Wrap-Up and Week 20 Preview
There was a lot riding on that Madrid final. Both Raja and Rafa were very close to breaking Andre Agassi's record for Master's Series shields. Federer would have tied it with a win in Madrid, but Nadal broke it. That puts Nadal two up on Fed in the second-highest tier of tournament. But even though that was an important match for that reason, the consequences of this win won't be settled until after the French Open.
With this win, Nadal moves up to number two in the world again. Even though he is currently 3,150 points behind Federer in the rankings, Nadal has a serious chance to reclaim that spot after the French. Here's how it could go: Federer is at 10,030 points, with 2,000 that will drop off during the French. That puts him at 8,030. Nadal is at 6,880 with only 180 that will drop (that's what you get for losing in the round of 16), putting him at 6,700.
With a win, Nadal could go up to 8,700 points. If he does that, and Federer loses in the quarterfinals or earlier, he would only get a maximum of 360 points. That would put Fed at 8,390 - and squarely in second place. The reason that *this* is significant is because Federer is just a few weeks away from beating Pete Sampras's record of most weeks at number one in the world. If he doesn't drop to number after the French, he beats that record. If he does, then he'll need to regain the ranking - again - in order to do it. It seems almost a sure thing that he will, but it just got a lot more interesting.
Unfortunately, the week before the French Open in the tennis world is not quite as thrilling. The tournament in Nice has two of the current top ten players, Verdasco and Soderling, as well as some other interesting guys. Bellucci, Baghdatis, Monfils, as well as Gasquet and Chiudinelli. But there are also a lot of relative no-names at the tournament, so it's worthwhile to wait and take a serious look once we're in the quarterfinals.
The other tournament going on this week is the ARAG World Team Cup in Dusseldorf, which is a strange format, featuring teams from different countries squaring off. Isner and Querrey are there, but the U.S. actually seems to be fielding the strongest pairing, which is a bit shocking. Hewitt is there for Australia, and Berdych for the Czechs. Monaco and Zeballos for Argentina and Almagro is there for Spain. But this format is more of a mystery to me than the mixed doubles team tournament in Australia earlier this year, because it seems like Carsten Ball is playing doubles for the Aussies? I'm not sure. I'll take another look at it later this week.
One other interesting result from the last few weeks is the resurgence of Japanese player Kei Nishikori. Nishikori, who missed almost all of last year with injury, had fallen off the rankings completely at the beginning of April. He has now won two challenger tournaments in a row, beating four players in the top 200, and getting his own ranking up to 244. Expect him to get some wildcards in the American summer hardcourt swing, and if he gets a favorable draw or two, then he could make some noise. I'm excited to have him back, and I bet his legions of Japanese fans are, too.
With this win, Nadal moves up to number two in the world again. Even though he is currently 3,150 points behind Federer in the rankings, Nadal has a serious chance to reclaim that spot after the French. Here's how it could go: Federer is at 10,030 points, with 2,000 that will drop off during the French. That puts him at 8,030. Nadal is at 6,880 with only 180 that will drop (that's what you get for losing in the round of 16), putting him at 6,700.
With a win, Nadal could go up to 8,700 points. If he does that, and Federer loses in the quarterfinals or earlier, he would only get a maximum of 360 points. That would put Fed at 8,390 - and squarely in second place. The reason that *this* is significant is because Federer is just a few weeks away from beating Pete Sampras's record of most weeks at number one in the world. If he doesn't drop to number after the French, he beats that record. If he does, then he'll need to regain the ranking - again - in order to do it. It seems almost a sure thing that he will, but it just got a lot more interesting.
Unfortunately, the week before the French Open in the tennis world is not quite as thrilling. The tournament in Nice has two of the current top ten players, Verdasco and Soderling, as well as some other interesting guys. Bellucci, Baghdatis, Monfils, as well as Gasquet and Chiudinelli. But there are also a lot of relative no-names at the tournament, so it's worthwhile to wait and take a serious look once we're in the quarterfinals.
The other tournament going on this week is the ARAG World Team Cup in Dusseldorf, which is a strange format, featuring teams from different countries squaring off. Isner and Querrey are there, but the U.S. actually seems to be fielding the strongest pairing, which is a bit shocking. Hewitt is there for Australia, and Berdych for the Czechs. Monaco and Zeballos for Argentina and Almagro is there for Spain. But this format is more of a mystery to me than the mixed doubles team tournament in Australia earlier this year, because it seems like Carsten Ball is playing doubles for the Aussies? I'm not sure. I'll take another look at it later this week.
One other interesting result from the last few weeks is the resurgence of Japanese player Kei Nishikori. Nishikori, who missed almost all of last year with injury, had fallen off the rankings completely at the beginning of April. He has now won two challenger tournaments in a row, beating four players in the top 200, and getting his own ranking up to 244. Expect him to get some wildcards in the American summer hardcourt swing, and if he gets a favorable draw or two, then he could make some noise. I'm excited to have him back, and I bet his legions of Japanese fans are, too.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Madrid Final
Ah, here we are. Back to order as usual. At last, we have another Federer and Nadal match-up. Amazingly, in the past 365 days, we have not had another chapter in the epic Federer-Nadal rivalry. The last time we had a whole year between two meetings was between their very first and second matches. Their last meeting was on this court, at this stage, one year ago. At that time, Nadal was running ragged after playing too much during the clay court season, and he had just won the longest three-set match ever against Novak Djokovic the day before. He was wiped out, and he lost to Federer, then lost at Roland Garros, and then his year went on the skids.
Federer, on the other hand, hadn't won a title since October of the previous year, had just lost a devastating five-set final at the Australian Open to Nadal, and had broken down in tears. He had smashed a racket during a loss to Djokovic during the American hard court swing. This match-up last year changed the trajectories of the rest of 2009 for both players. Could we be looking at another watershed moment tomorrow?
Nadal's stock is rising again, but Federer's is back down. It was Federer's semifinal that was actually tougher, this year. It looked like he might lose it, at moments. Though Nadal started shakily against Almagro, he was thoroughly in command in the second two sets. Federer has had losses recently to absolutely shocking players, so will he really be able to beat Nadal, who has shown flashes of his classic clay-court brilliance of late, and even when he hasn't reached that level, has been playing better than anyone else right now?
It's hard for me to think that Federer is the favorite, tomorrow. He does need the win more, though. Nadal has dominated the clay court swing the way he always does, and he cut Barcelona from his schedule to spare his aching knees. Federer has looked listless and sometimes a bit petulant in his losses since the AO final. It's not a big surprise, considering that he knows he is capable of playing so much better. But we haven't seen vintage Federer for any consistent stretch since January. He will need to get some of that form back if he hopes to upset the king of clay tomorrow, the way he did a week ago. But if he manages to pull it off, then the French Open suddenly gets extremely interesting again. I'll be watching tomorrow's match-up with a great deal of anticipation.
Federer, on the other hand, hadn't won a title since October of the previous year, had just lost a devastating five-set final at the Australian Open to Nadal, and had broken down in tears. He had smashed a racket during a loss to Djokovic during the American hard court swing. This match-up last year changed the trajectories of the rest of 2009 for both players. Could we be looking at another watershed moment tomorrow?
Nadal's stock is rising again, but Federer's is back down. It was Federer's semifinal that was actually tougher, this year. It looked like he might lose it, at moments. Though Nadal started shakily against Almagro, he was thoroughly in command in the second two sets. Federer has had losses recently to absolutely shocking players, so will he really be able to beat Nadal, who has shown flashes of his classic clay-court brilliance of late, and even when he hasn't reached that level, has been playing better than anyone else right now?
It's hard for me to think that Federer is the favorite, tomorrow. He does need the win more, though. Nadal has dominated the clay court swing the way he always does, and he cut Barcelona from his schedule to spare his aching knees. Federer has looked listless and sometimes a bit petulant in his losses since the AO final. It's not a big surprise, considering that he knows he is capable of playing so much better. But we haven't seen vintage Federer for any consistent stretch since January. He will need to get some of that form back if he hopes to upset the king of clay tomorrow, the way he did a week ago. But if he manages to pull it off, then the French Open suddenly gets extremely interesting again. I'll be watching tomorrow's match-up with a great deal of anticipation.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Madrid Semifinals
We're up to the Madrid semifinals. It looks like order is pretty close to being restored. Both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are both in the semifinals of a tournament for the first time this year since Doha. We almost had another one of the top four in there as well, but Andy Murray fell to David Ferrer. In Spain's clay-court Masters event, there are three Spaniards and Roger Federer in the semifinals. So really, this is perhaps the least crazy Masters event we've had yet this year.
Honestly, it will be a surprise if we don't have a rematch of the Federer-Nadal final from last year on Sunday. Almagro came out of a weak quarter and hasn't had to face anyone close to the level of Nadal up to this point. And Federer seems to be trying very hard to find his form, and the Federer Express is 9-0 against Ferrer. He may have suffered a few first-time losses lately, but it's tough to see Ferrer coming through. He was pretty gritty against Gulbis, and had just enough of the right stuff to come away with the win. Ferrer was more solid against Murray, but the Scot wasn't hitting his shots. Ferrer will have to expect some tougher balls to handle tomorrow.
Nadal and Almagro each blew through their matches, so there isn't too much to say about them. That matchup looks a lot like the other semi, actually. Nadal is 5-0 against Almagro, and it's tough to see him losing that one. So we'll get our first Rafa-Fed face-off since exactly one year ago, on the eve of the French Open. It seems appropriate somehow, doesn't it?
Honestly, it will be a surprise if we don't have a rematch of the Federer-Nadal final from last year on Sunday. Almagro came out of a weak quarter and hasn't had to face anyone close to the level of Nadal up to this point. And Federer seems to be trying very hard to find his form, and the Federer Express is 9-0 against Ferrer. He may have suffered a few first-time losses lately, but it's tough to see Ferrer coming through. He was pretty gritty against Gulbis, and had just enough of the right stuff to come away with the win. Ferrer was more solid against Murray, but the Scot wasn't hitting his shots. Ferrer will have to expect some tougher balls to handle tomorrow.
Nadal and Almagro each blew through their matches, so there isn't too much to say about them. That matchup looks a lot like the other semi, actually. Nadal is 5-0 against Almagro, and it's tough to see him losing that one. So we'll get our first Rafa-Fed face-off since exactly one year ago, on the eve of the French Open. It seems appropriate somehow, doesn't it?
Friday, May 14, 2010
Madrid Quartefinals
Tomorrow we have the quarterfinals in the final clay-court Masters event of the year. It's a fairly strong lineup, but a few of the faces that one might have expected to find there are out, either due to injury or fatigue. But three of the four quarterfinal matches feature six players who have to be considered favorites to make the second week at Roland Garros.
Of those quarterfinal matches, the one that may be the most interesting is Roger Federer against Ernests Gulbis. While the rematch between Federer and Wawrinka today was a bit of a dud, that was in large part because Wawrinka failed to show up, and Federer managed to just stay solid. I don't think he can expect the same kind of performance from Gulbis tomorrow. The court in Madrid is harder and less clay-ish than the rest of the Masters events on the surface, which would normally help Federer. But it helps Gulbis, too. I expect Federer to be in a "refuse to lose" mode tomorrow, since one loss to the young Latvian was more than enough, I'm sure. But he will have to play well - better than he has in a while - to keep Ernests from hitting him off the court, assuming he can keep his head on straight.
The other particularly interesting quarterfinal is between Andy Murray and David Ferrer. Murray has actually performed the best out of any of the quarterfinalists thus far, dropping only nine games in his first two matches. On the other hand, Ferrer is one of only two of the remaining eight players who has dropped a set. So the Spaniard has not been at his best, while Murray seems to have been playing well. But the Scot also hasn't faced the toughest opposition, while Ferrer ran into an inspired Baghdatis in teh second round. This one is a toss-up. Ferrer is likely to be more tired, while one thing that Murray definitely hasn't done lately is play too many matches. I'm anxious to see how this one goes.
The other two matches are less exciting in terms of the outcome. Rafael Nadal plays Gael Monfils, who is playing just his sixth match since March. It seems extremely unlikely that the recently injured Frenchman could upset Nadal, but no matter what the outcome, there should be some stellar shotmaking. The other quarterfinal is two players playing for the honor of losing to Nadal in the semis. Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro took advantage of a fatigue-ravaged section to reach the quarters. It's really a toss-up about who could win, but on one hand, it's not going to matter once Sunday rolls around.
On the women's side, I'm glad to see that Venus Williams and Sam Stosur, which could be an awesome match, is on center court, despite not having any Spanish players in action. The Europeans seem to care less about the women on clay than the men, at this time of year, but it's good that the tournament organizers saw that this is a match that shouldn't be missed. I pick the winner of that match to make the final, though at that point, it's going to be a tough fight against either Petrova or Jankovic. This should be an exciting weekend. I wish I didn't have a wedding to attend, because I'd stay up all night and watch tennis!
Of those quarterfinal matches, the one that may be the most interesting is Roger Federer against Ernests Gulbis. While the rematch between Federer and Wawrinka today was a bit of a dud, that was in large part because Wawrinka failed to show up, and Federer managed to just stay solid. I don't think he can expect the same kind of performance from Gulbis tomorrow. The court in Madrid is harder and less clay-ish than the rest of the Masters events on the surface, which would normally help Federer. But it helps Gulbis, too. I expect Federer to be in a "refuse to lose" mode tomorrow, since one loss to the young Latvian was more than enough, I'm sure. But he will have to play well - better than he has in a while - to keep Ernests from hitting him off the court, assuming he can keep his head on straight.
The other particularly interesting quarterfinal is between Andy Murray and David Ferrer. Murray has actually performed the best out of any of the quarterfinalists thus far, dropping only nine games in his first two matches. On the other hand, Ferrer is one of only two of the remaining eight players who has dropped a set. So the Spaniard has not been at his best, while Murray seems to have been playing well. But the Scot also hasn't faced the toughest opposition, while Ferrer ran into an inspired Baghdatis in teh second round. This one is a toss-up. Ferrer is likely to be more tired, while one thing that Murray definitely hasn't done lately is play too many matches. I'm anxious to see how this one goes.
The other two matches are less exciting in terms of the outcome. Rafael Nadal plays Gael Monfils, who is playing just his sixth match since March. It seems extremely unlikely that the recently injured Frenchman could upset Nadal, but no matter what the outcome, there should be some stellar shotmaking. The other quarterfinal is two players playing for the honor of losing to Nadal in the semis. Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro took advantage of a fatigue-ravaged section to reach the quarters. It's really a toss-up about who could win, but on one hand, it's not going to matter once Sunday rolls around.
On the women's side, I'm glad to see that Venus Williams and Sam Stosur, which could be an awesome match, is on center court, despite not having any Spanish players in action. The Europeans seem to care less about the women on clay than the men, at this time of year, but it's good that the tournament organizers saw that this is a match that shouldn't be missed. I pick the winner of that match to make the final, though at that point, it's going to be a tough fight against either Petrova or Jankovic. This should be an exciting weekend. I wish I didn't have a wedding to attend, because I'd stay up all night and watch tennis!
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Madrid Third Round
In second round action in Madrid, there was really only one upset to speak of, and it wasn't even on the men's side! Serena Williams lost to Nadia Petrova, way out on court three. This is not a tremendous surprise, because Petrova started the year red hot, and may just now be getting her game back. But I also can't imagine that Serena was terribly excited about the situation, playing on court three as WTA world number one. Maybe she just wanted to head off to France and enjoy some more time off. At least, it was something that was on her mind. Her sister won, though.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
Monday, May 3, 2010
Rome Wrap-up and Week 18 Preview
The result of the Rome final went as predicted, so I'm afraid it doesn't merit a lot of attention. Nadal was running even with Ferrer before the first rain delay, and after that he broke and won the first set. The second, despite another rain delay, wasn't much of a contest. And Nadal is now tied for the most Masters shields of any player since their creation in 1990. He is now ahead of Roger Federer in this department, if you can believe that. He'll be sitting out this week, but back for Madrid. He could take the all-time lead in a few weeks with a win there. We'll see what happens.
In the meantime, there are three lower-tier clay-court tournaments this week. I'll take a quick look at each one in turn. Estoril in Portugal is Roger Federer's tournament, and is his to lose. The Serbia Open, in its second year, should be won by Novak Djokovic because he's the highest seed by far, but also because he owns the damn thing. In Munich, the BMW Open is the most up for grabs of any of this week's tournaments. No obvious favorite, there.
Looking with a little bit more depth, I really don't see who can trouble Roger Federer in his draw. The only players who have the ability to hurt him are the second and third seeds, Gael Monfils and Ivan Ljubicic. But they're both in the bottom half of the draw, so Federer won't face them until the final, at the earliest. They are also both coming off injury, so they might not be at 100%. If Federer doesn't win this tournament, then we'll know that he is really struggling.
In Belgrade, Djokovic is similarly favored, but he has more legitimate competition. All of the Americans who are in action at the top level of the game are in Belgrade, so he may have to get through Sam Querrey or John Isner, in a rematch of the first round of Davis Cup. San Wawrinka, Igor Andreev, and Richard Gasquet are also in the tournament. It's also worth noting that Djokovic's little brother Marko got a wildcard into the tournament and faces off against Italian qualifier Alessio Di Maurio in the first round. Could be interesting to see what he's capable of. There are a few other players in the draw that I like, such as Josselin Ouanna, Michael Russel, Horacio Zeballos, Evgeny Korolev, and Janko "Tipsy" Tipsarevic, but it's a bit early to see if any of them will make any noise.
As I said, the most open tournament is the one in Munich. The top seed, Marin Cilic, is 1-2 so far this year on clay, which is not exactly the kind of record that you hope to be taking into a tournament like this. He'll also be up against Mikhail Youzhny (last year's finalist) and defending champion Tomas Berdych, as well as former champ Philipp Kohlschreiber. Not to mention Marcos Baghdatis and Nicolas Almagro, and unseeded Mario Ancic and Nicolas Kiefer, who have both been in the top ten. This tournament is pretty much wide open, and could produce some of the best matches of the week.
I know I've been neglecting the women's tour recently, so I'm going to do a bit of catch-up today. First of all, huge congratulations to the US Fed Cup team for beating the Russians to get back to the final, even without the Williams sisters. Second, kudos to Justine Henin for winning the first title of her comeback, just in time to prep for the French Open, where she will now be seeded, if I am not mistaken. Could she win it? I don't really know who the other contenders might be, honestly.
The women's tournament in Rome takes place this week, and this is the first time that so many of the top players have all been in action since the Australian Open. Nine of the top ten players are here, with only Sam Stosur withdrawing after losing her final to Justine Henin. It's Serena's first tournament since her win at the Australian Open. We'll see how she's doing - Dinara Safina is back as well. Really, this is the chance to see how everyone is doing in the lead-up to the French. Except for Kim Clijsters, who is having some trouble with injury. It would be a shame if she misses the tournament this year.
Lots of action coming up this week, since in addition to everything I've mentioned already, there are some interesting challenger matches that I'm keeping my eyes on. We'll see how the week develops.
In the meantime, there are three lower-tier clay-court tournaments this week. I'll take a quick look at each one in turn. Estoril in Portugal is Roger Federer's tournament, and is his to lose. The Serbia Open, in its second year, should be won by Novak Djokovic because he's the highest seed by far, but also because he owns the damn thing. In Munich, the BMW Open is the most up for grabs of any of this week's tournaments. No obvious favorite, there.
Looking with a little bit more depth, I really don't see who can trouble Roger Federer in his draw. The only players who have the ability to hurt him are the second and third seeds, Gael Monfils and Ivan Ljubicic. But they're both in the bottom half of the draw, so Federer won't face them until the final, at the earliest. They are also both coming off injury, so they might not be at 100%. If Federer doesn't win this tournament, then we'll know that he is really struggling.
In Belgrade, Djokovic is similarly favored, but he has more legitimate competition. All of the Americans who are in action at the top level of the game are in Belgrade, so he may have to get through Sam Querrey or John Isner, in a rematch of the first round of Davis Cup. San Wawrinka, Igor Andreev, and Richard Gasquet are also in the tournament. It's also worth noting that Djokovic's little brother Marko got a wildcard into the tournament and faces off against Italian qualifier Alessio Di Maurio in the first round. Could be interesting to see what he's capable of. There are a few other players in the draw that I like, such as Josselin Ouanna, Michael Russel, Horacio Zeballos, Evgeny Korolev, and Janko "Tipsy" Tipsarevic, but it's a bit early to see if any of them will make any noise.
As I said, the most open tournament is the one in Munich. The top seed, Marin Cilic, is 1-2 so far this year on clay, which is not exactly the kind of record that you hope to be taking into a tournament like this. He'll also be up against Mikhail Youzhny (last year's finalist) and defending champion Tomas Berdych, as well as former champ Philipp Kohlschreiber. Not to mention Marcos Baghdatis and Nicolas Almagro, and unseeded Mario Ancic and Nicolas Kiefer, who have both been in the top ten. This tournament is pretty much wide open, and could produce some of the best matches of the week.
I know I've been neglecting the women's tour recently, so I'm going to do a bit of catch-up today. First of all, huge congratulations to the US Fed Cup team for beating the Russians to get back to the final, even without the Williams sisters. Second, kudos to Justine Henin for winning the first title of her comeback, just in time to prep for the French Open, where she will now be seeded, if I am not mistaken. Could she win it? I don't really know who the other contenders might be, honestly.
The women's tournament in Rome takes place this week, and this is the first time that so many of the top players have all been in action since the Australian Open. Nine of the top ten players are here, with only Sam Stosur withdrawing after losing her final to Justine Henin. It's Serena's first tournament since her win at the Australian Open. We'll see how she's doing - Dinara Safina is back as well. Really, this is the chance to see how everyone is doing in the lead-up to the French. Except for Kim Clijsters, who is having some trouble with injury. It would be a shame if she misses the tournament this year.
Lots of action coming up this week, since in addition to everything I've mentioned already, there are some interesting challenger matches that I'm keeping my eyes on. We'll see how the week develops.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Rome Final
Well, I was almost right about the semifinals yesterday. Verdasco was just too tired to play against Ferrer, and that was the big difference in their contest. Ferrer was too solid, but that's not to surprising. It was a tight first set, but Verdasco fell away in the second. Verdasco started strong, getting out to a 5-1 lead in the first set, but he went on to lose the next six games, which is just about as dispiriting as it can get. I don't know if either player was at their best, with eight total breaks of serve. One of the strongest indicators of Verdasco's physical and mental exhaustion was the way he served. His first serve percentage was almost 75% but he won only 56% of his first serve points. That's the way he served before 2009, when he worked on his fitness and drastically improved the power behind his serve. That was what pushed him into the top ten, but when he gets exhausted, it's no shock that he goes back to his old style. A spectacular couple of weeks for "Hot Sauce" and I hope he recovers in time for the next Masters event and the French Open.
The other match, though, didn't go quite as I predicted. Even though the end result was the one that I expected, Ernests Gulbis played really strong tennis for the majority of the match, and Nadal's level was the lowest it had been since the beginning of the clay season. These two facts may have been related. In any case, this was a great match - one of the best ones on clay yet this year. Nadal broke twice, in the first game of the match and the last one. In both, Gulbis was a bit mentally unsteady. He came out shaky on serve, and in the last game he clearly felt the pressure of serving to stay in the match, and as a result he rushed himself.
Aside from those two games, Gulbis served brilliantly. He hit 14 aces, got 77% of his first serves in, and won 73% of those points. He was smacking his forehand from every part of the court, and he was keeping Nadal pinned back so far that it allowed to hit some great drop shot winners. Unfortunately, he misfired on three in the last two games, which ended up costing him the match. Up until 4-5 in the third set, Gulbis had won two more points than Nadal over the course of the match. Now, all credit to Gulbis for playing the kind of tennis that can trouble Nadal, but he wasn't at his best. Nadal knew he was not up to his usual level, but he's a perfectionist. Still, even Gulbis said that he was expecting a higher level from Nadal. Particularly after a loss, that's not something a player usually says about his opponent. We all know that Nadal could have played better, but a win is a win.
Even if he plays only as well as he did against Gulbis, Nadal should win against Ferrer in the final. But I don't think he'll be quite as subdued in his level of play tomorrow. First of all, Ferrer lacks the firepower that Gulbis does, and Nadal has much more trouble dealing with good attack than he does with good defense, which is mostly what Ferrer has to offer. The only chance that Ferrer has if that Nadal's performance today was not a minor dip, but rather an indication of some more serious problem. I don't think that's terribly likely.
The other match, though, didn't go quite as I predicted. Even though the end result was the one that I expected, Ernests Gulbis played really strong tennis for the majority of the match, and Nadal's level was the lowest it had been since the beginning of the clay season. These two facts may have been related. In any case, this was a great match - one of the best ones on clay yet this year. Nadal broke twice, in the first game of the match and the last one. In both, Gulbis was a bit mentally unsteady. He came out shaky on serve, and in the last game he clearly felt the pressure of serving to stay in the match, and as a result he rushed himself.
Aside from those two games, Gulbis served brilliantly. He hit 14 aces, got 77% of his first serves in, and won 73% of those points. He was smacking his forehand from every part of the court, and he was keeping Nadal pinned back so far that it allowed to hit some great drop shot winners. Unfortunately, he misfired on three in the last two games, which ended up costing him the match. Up until 4-5 in the third set, Gulbis had won two more points than Nadal over the course of the match. Now, all credit to Gulbis for playing the kind of tennis that can trouble Nadal, but he wasn't at his best. Nadal knew he was not up to his usual level, but he's a perfectionist. Still, even Gulbis said that he was expecting a higher level from Nadal. Particularly after a loss, that's not something a player usually says about his opponent. We all know that Nadal could have played better, but a win is a win.
Even if he plays only as well as he did against Gulbis, Nadal should win against Ferrer in the final. But I don't think he'll be quite as subdued in his level of play tomorrow. First of all, Ferrer lacks the firepower that Gulbis does, and Nadal has much more trouble dealing with good attack than he does with good defense, which is mostly what Ferrer has to offer. The only chance that Ferrer has if that Nadal's performance today was not a minor dip, but rather an indication of some more serious problem. I don't think that's terribly likely.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
