Saturday, January 2, 2010

Tennis 2010 Week 1 - Looking at the Draws

In my last post, I forgot to look at the two women's tournaments that kick the first week of the season off, as well. This was a mistake for a number of reasons, the most exciting of which is that the women's tournament in Brisbane features the return of former number one and seven-time grand slam winner Justine Henin. She opens her comeback with a tough match, facing second seed and twentieth-ranked Nadia Petrova in the first round. I'm sure the Belgian would have preferred somebody a little lower in the rankings, since she may well be rusty after nearly two years off.

However, if she can get past Petrova (Justine does lead their head-to-head 11-2), then she should find herself with relatively smoother sailing. If she makes it all the way to the final, she has a chance of facing Kim Clijsters, who is the top seed for the event! If they play in the final, I expect they'll play a few more times over the course of the year. The other first-round match to keep an eye on is Ana Ivanovic against Jelena Dokic. I'd expect the winner of that match to make the semis.

The other women's tournament of week 1, in Auckland, does not feature as much star power, but it still has some fascinating storylines to watch. My favorite is the continued resurgence of Japanese player Kimiko Date Krumm, whose return from retirement is really much more impressive than Henin's. She opens against Chakvetadze. The other interesting storyline here features the top two Italian players, Schiavone and Pennetta (the number one seed), who are hoping they can build on their Fed Cup win last year by starting 2010 off strong.

Moving on to the men's tourneys, the field in Chennai is arguably the weakest. When world #79 Rajeev Ram is your eighth seed, you know that you don't have the toughest draw in the world. Top seed Soderling shouldn't have too much trouble marching through, despite the presence of some tough players. Former world number 1 Carlos Moya was given a wildcard to the event, and he faces Tipsarevic in the first round. Number eight seed Ram faces the Dutch young player Thiemo De Bakker, who is playing his tenth tour-level match. Last year's finalist and local hope Somdev Devvarman opens with the semifinal that he would have played last year, if Rainer Schuettler hadn't withdrawn with an injury. And defending champion Marin Cilic is the number two seed. All signs point to a Cilic-Soderling final, but of course, anything can happen.

By the way, Soderling ended up losing to Nadal in the final of the Abu Dhabi exhibition event, in two tough sets. That's impressive, since the Swede won their last match comfortably at the year-end championships. Nadal may have been able to use the time off (brief though it was) to get back to fighting fit form. Meanwhile, Federer had to play a consolation match for third place against Ferrer, which he easily won. Guess that invalidates my theory about Federer not giving it his all against Soderling so he could get ready for Doha, doesn't it?

The draw at Doha has three real contenders and a handful of dangerous, slightly crazy, but very entertaining mid-level players. Federer, Nadal, and Davydenko are the one, two, and three seeds. Gulbis, Karlovic, and Koellerer are all scattered throughout the draw, along with 38-year old Younes El Aynaoui, who was given a wildcard. He was playing on the Champions tour last year! He opens against a qualifier, which is about as much as he could hope for. It seems unreasonable to bet against a Federer-Nadal final here, though. Particularly since defending champ Andy Murray opted not to return and instead played in the Hopman Cup.

In Brisbane, on the men's side, Roddick seems to be the number one seed mostlikely to lose before the final. The health of his knee is still a question mark, and there are a ton of lurkers in the draw. Big-serving Aussie lefty Carsten Ball could be Roddick's second round opponent, and he could be followed by Jarkko Nieminen or Richard Gasquet, who are playing one of the most enticing opening round matches.

Other opening rounds to watch are Sam Querrey-James Blake, Marcos Baghdatis-Mardy Fish, and Gael Monfils-Taylor Dent. As if that weren't enough, the draw also features defending champ Radek Stepanek, the other great Aussie hope Bernard Tomic, Thomaz Bellucci from Brazil and Jeremy Chardy from France. This tournament could unfold any number of ways, and it's much harder to get a sense of who will come out on top than at the other two tournaments this week.

2010 Tennis Season Underway!

After a long and lonely off-season, the 2010 tennis season officially begins this week. There are three official tournaments during week one: Brisbane, Chennai, and Doha. Meanwhile, there's the Hopman Cup mixed-doubles event in Perth as well. Not to mention last week, the Capitala World Tennis Championship exhibition took place in Abu Dhabi. The season really starts with a bang, doesn't it? Beginning next week, the entire tour becomes focused in Australia as things build up towards the first major of the year, but for one week, the players remain scattered across the globe.

First of all, looking back at last week's pre-season exhibition in Abu Dhabi, there is one very interesting result. Robin Soderling managed to find a way to beat Roger Federer in the semifinals, after losing twelve consecutive times to the Swiss maestro. While this is undoubtedly a thrilling result for Robin, Roger may have already pocketed his appearance fee and decided to head off to his next tourney. The sad truth is that these exhibition wins often don't make that much difference. Roddick beat Fed at Kooyong in 2007, but then won only six games when they played just a few weeks later at the Aussie Open.

Speaking of Roddick, he's the top seed at the tournament in Brisbane, which features the majority of the American and Australian players, save for Aussie number one Hewitt, who's at the Hopman Cup. The first week of the season is always fascinating, because you get to see how players who were injured at the end of last season have recovered, or whether those who finished the year on a tear can maintain their momentum. Roddick is hoping to have fully recovered from the knee injury which cut his season short. Brisbane also features Mardy Fish, Sam Querrey, and Taylor Dent, all recently injured Americans who hope to start 2009 off well. There are quite a few dangerous floaters in the draw, as well. Look for a more in-depth draw analysis tomorrow.

Moving westward to India, the Chennai tournament will struggle to be as exciting this year as it was in 2009. That was the year that local wildcard Somdev Devvarman made it through the first three rounds, beating Carlos Moya and Ivo Karlovic in the process, only to get a walkover from Rainer Schuettler in the semis. He lost to Marin Cilic in the final, but what a dream run. Devvarman will be hoping to defend as many points as he can, and Cilic will be hoping to have his first successful title defense of his career.

Further west, in the Middle East, where the money still seems to be flowing despite the world's economic downturn, you will find most of the big dogs. Only three of the world's top six players will be in official action this week, but they will all be in Doha. Federer, Nadal, and Davydenko will all be there, and only Davydenko enters with a winning streak. Can the Russian continue his stupendous form from the end of last year? He was injured early last year, so he has no points to defend. If he plays like he did in the closing months of 2009, he could jump up to the top 3 or 4 in the world. Two of the other most interesting storylines of 2010 will get started here, too: will Nadal's body be able to hold up, what with all of his injuries, and will Federer be able to stay as motivated as he has been in the past, considering how he has accomplished everything he could have set out to do?

The other member of the top six who is playing this week is Britain's Andy Murray, who is playing the Hopman Cup with British teenage phenom Laura Robson. She could meet American sensation Melanie Oudin, if the U.S. And Britain make it to the final. Of course, to do that, they'll each have to win their groups. Or maybe they could meet in the semis. I'm the first to admit that I'm not 100% clear on the way that Hopman Cup works. Regardless, there should be some firecracker matches. Watch for Dementieva to start her season in style.

2010 Statement of Purpose

In 2009, my posting was infrequent. I will maintain a more rigorous schedule in 2010. I will post no fewer than three times each week. I recognize that my content is not sufficiently enthralling for a reader to return if they visit the site expecting new content and finding none on more than one or two occasions.

This blog will not simply state tournament results. Those can be found easily on any number of websites, including www.atpworldtour.com and sports.yahoo.com/ten. While I have done it in the past because it is easy for me to do, there is no point in my retyping the scores from other websites.

This blog will attempt to offer analysis, commentary, and predictions. One of my strengths is in tennis trivia, and I will present interesting and relevant tidbits whenever possible. My other is in numbers, and I will delve into match and player statistics when I think it will prove worthwhile.

This blog will not hate on anyone involved in the sport or treat them unfairly. While I do have my opinions about players, announcers, and commentators, I will strive to maintain an unbiased perspective whenever possible. I will not revel in a player's loss. I consider this akin to cheering unforced errors when at a live match. It is not a classy thing to do.

This blog will focus on bringing attention to the things that are good about the sport. Tennis is the most fascinating individual sport in the world. It has enormous depth and so many angles from which it can be appreciated. It is simply a beautiful game, full of wonderful physicality, strategy, and artistry. I've created this blog because I am enthralled by watching, thinking about, and talking about the game. I just want to share my obsession.