In the quarters, three out of four went pretty much as expected: Roddick frustrated Djokovic, Murray frustrated Davydenko, and Nadal showed he wasn't totally match-fit yet against Del Potro. The surprise - shocker, really - was the way that Federer gave away his match against Tsonga. Up 5-1 in the third set, after winning the second 6-1 and losing the first in a tight tiebreak, Federer went on to lose in a third set tiebreak. Credit to Tsonga, but this will certainly add fuel to the fire of the questions about Federer's dedication.
In the semis, we have Tsonga-Murray. They haven't played since the 1st round of the 2008 Australian Open, when Tsonga surprisingly dumped Andy M and went on to make the final. It goes without saying that a lot has happened since then. Their head-to-head is tied at one apiece, but Murray has been vastly more consistent over the past two years (and less plagued by injuries, so here's hoping Tsonga's wrist is alright). Murray is the odds-on favorite 1.24:5, but Federer was a bigger favorite before that match. Tsonga is a streaky player who can take down the best players in the world when he's playing at his best, but he can also stumble when he should be winning the match. I think this will be closer than some might expect, but it's tough to bet against Murray.
The other match, between Andy Roddick and Juan Martin Del Potro) is much closer (nearly even money on betfair, with a slight advantage to JMDP). Juan Martin is up 2-0 against Roddick lifetime, including a win just last week in the Washington final. However, I think Del Potro may be starting to get a little jaded, and even though the second set against Nadal was a quick one yesterday, the match still didn't end until late. I also think that Roddick and coach Stefanki will have had time to examine last week's final to see what strategies didn't work (don't give him a running forehand!) and will come into this match with a revised gameplan. But Juan Martin could definitely continue his great run and make it to his first Masters Series final.
Whatever happens today, the odds are the final is going to be part of a great narrative. If it's Andy-Andy, the Brit will be looking for revenge after the Wimbledon semifinal defeat. If it's Roddick-Tsonga, Roddick will be looking to avenge a tough loss at Paris last year (which Tsonga went on to win) in which Roddick ended up with nine more points total (126-117) but was 3 for 17 on break points. If it's Del Potro-Murray, they've got some great history. Del Potro won their last meeting, but Murray broke Del Potro's 4-tournament winning streak at the U.S. Open last year. And, of course, at their first meeting in Rome in 2008, Del Po uttered the immortal line "You and your mother. You are the same always." And Tsonga has never beaten Del Po, most recently losing to him on his home soil at the French Open.
Some tennis fans may be disappointed that the top two guys are out of the tournament, because they prefer the game when one or two people is dominating the field. I would much rather have an eight-way race for every tournament, so I hope that these top players can continue to make the rest of the year look this exciting.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Friday, August 14, 2009
Rogers Cup Montreal - Historic QF Lineup
For the first time in ATP history, the top eight players in the world rankings are the eight players left in the quarterfinals of a tournament. This is exciting, by itself, because it has never happened before on the tour, but it is much more exciting because it guarantees that the remaining seven matches are going to be marquee caliber.
To start the day off, world numbers 3 and 8 meet in the first quarterfinal, Andy Murray against Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko is probably under-ranked, having missed so much of the year with his heel injury. But since he's been back he's won two tournaments in a row and is riding the second longest-winning streak on the tour (after Federer). But Andy Murray loves the U.S. Hard Court swing, and made his first serious impression around this time last year. They're 4-4, so even though Murray seems like he ought to be the clear favorite (he's 1.34:1 on Betfair), this could be a tight match. I think Murray's dink-dink tennis could frustrate the Russian, or Nikolay could just hit through him.
The following match has the potential to be the most one-sided (1.19:6.2 on Betfair) between world numbers 1 and 7, Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. As noted above, Federer is on the longest winning streak in the ATP, going back to his loss to Djokovic in Rome, which was in April. Tsonga has not been having the best middle of the season, after getting off to a spectacular start. After winning the Paris Masters last year, he hasn't really posted any comparable wins - his only top ten victories since then have been against a slumping Djokovic and Gilles Simon, the accidental top-tenner. A win over the world number 1 would certainly turn his season in the right direction. And for Federer, the question remains - after achieving so much in the past few months, completing the grand slam, breaking Pete's record, and becoming a father - will he be able to maintain his desire? Only time will tell.
The night matches are even more exciting. We start off with the closest match-up, ranking-wise, between Roddick and Djokovic, the 5 and 4 seeds. Roddick has won their last two meetings, but Djokovic clipped Roddick at the U.S. Open last year. Djoker also beat Roddick two years ago at this very event, at this very stage. Djokovic is looking to turn around a modest (for him) season, with two wins at minor tournaments, while he's stumbled in the finals at several Master's events. Roddick is having a much better year than he has had in a while, but he still hasn't made an impression at these Master's events. His last final was in 2006. Before he won the U.S. Open in 2003, Roddick won the Canada-Cincinnati double, which I'm sure he'd love to pull off again. In order to do that, he'll have to get through the toughest quarterfinal field ever. Interestingly, even though he is ranked lower, Roddick is a slight favorite over Djokovic, 1.89:2.12.
Finally, the evening will close with Nadal-Del Potro, perhaps the most anticipated match. Even though we're into the quarters, we don't really know how Nadal is feeling. His first match was basically a walkover from Ferrer, and all credit to Petzschner for making it as far as he did, but that's not the toughest test for the world #2. Del Potro, on the other hand, is one of the most in-form players on tour. He also won his last match against Nadal, back in Miami. If Nadal is really recovered, then he should be able to fend off the big Argentine. But if he isn't at 100%, and Del Potro isn't over-tennised, then Del Po should come through. Still, Nadal is the odds-on favorite, 1.69:2.42.
Lots of great stories in play today, with a lot of questions to be answered. But it's time to just sit back and enjoy a day of great match-ups. It's going to be tough for the tennis to live up to the billing, but no matter what happens, it will be exciting.
To start the day off, world numbers 3 and 8 meet in the first quarterfinal, Andy Murray against Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko is probably under-ranked, having missed so much of the year with his heel injury. But since he's been back he's won two tournaments in a row and is riding the second longest-winning streak on the tour (after Federer). But Andy Murray loves the U.S. Hard Court swing, and made his first serious impression around this time last year. They're 4-4, so even though Murray seems like he ought to be the clear favorite (he's 1.34:1 on Betfair), this could be a tight match. I think Murray's dink-dink tennis could frustrate the Russian, or Nikolay could just hit through him.
The following match has the potential to be the most one-sided (1.19:6.2 on Betfair) between world numbers 1 and 7, Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. As noted above, Federer is on the longest winning streak in the ATP, going back to his loss to Djokovic in Rome, which was in April. Tsonga has not been having the best middle of the season, after getting off to a spectacular start. After winning the Paris Masters last year, he hasn't really posted any comparable wins - his only top ten victories since then have been against a slumping Djokovic and Gilles Simon, the accidental top-tenner. A win over the world number 1 would certainly turn his season in the right direction. And for Federer, the question remains - after achieving so much in the past few months, completing the grand slam, breaking Pete's record, and becoming a father - will he be able to maintain his desire? Only time will tell.
The night matches are even more exciting. We start off with the closest match-up, ranking-wise, between Roddick and Djokovic, the 5 and 4 seeds. Roddick has won their last two meetings, but Djokovic clipped Roddick at the U.S. Open last year. Djoker also beat Roddick two years ago at this very event, at this very stage. Djokovic is looking to turn around a modest (for him) season, with two wins at minor tournaments, while he's stumbled in the finals at several Master's events. Roddick is having a much better year than he has had in a while, but he still hasn't made an impression at these Master's events. His last final was in 2006. Before he won the U.S. Open in 2003, Roddick won the Canada-Cincinnati double, which I'm sure he'd love to pull off again. In order to do that, he'll have to get through the toughest quarterfinal field ever. Interestingly, even though he is ranked lower, Roddick is a slight favorite over Djokovic, 1.89:2.12.
Finally, the evening will close with Nadal-Del Potro, perhaps the most anticipated match. Even though we're into the quarters, we don't really know how Nadal is feeling. His first match was basically a walkover from Ferrer, and all credit to Petzschner for making it as far as he did, but that's not the toughest test for the world #2. Del Potro, on the other hand, is one of the most in-form players on tour. He also won his last match against Nadal, back in Miami. If Nadal is really recovered, then he should be able to fend off the big Argentine. But if he isn't at 100%, and Del Potro isn't over-tennised, then Del Po should come through. Still, Nadal is the odds-on favorite, 1.69:2.42.
Lots of great stories in play today, with a lot of questions to be answered. But it's time to just sit back and enjoy a day of great match-ups. It's going to be tough for the tennis to live up to the billing, but no matter what happens, it will be exciting.
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