Friday, August 14, 2009

Rogers Cup Montreal - Historic QF Lineup

For the first time in ATP history, the top eight players in the world rankings are the eight players left in the quarterfinals of a tournament. This is exciting, by itself, because it has never happened before on the tour, but it is much more exciting because it guarantees that the remaining seven matches are going to be marquee caliber.

To start the day off, world numbers 3 and 8 meet in the first quarterfinal, Andy Murray against Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko is probably under-ranked, having missed so much of the year with his heel injury. But since he's been back he's won two tournaments in a row and is riding the second longest-winning streak on the tour (after Federer). But Andy Murray loves the U.S. Hard Court swing, and made his first serious impression around this time last year. They're 4-4, so even though Murray seems like he ought to be the clear favorite (he's 1.34:1 on Betfair), this could be a tight match. I think Murray's dink-dink tennis could frustrate the Russian, or Nikolay could just hit through him.

The following match has the potential to be the most one-sided (1.19:6.2 on Betfair) between world numbers 1 and 7, Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. As noted above, Federer is on the longest winning streak in the ATP, going back to his loss to Djokovic in Rome, which was in April. Tsonga has not been having the best middle of the season, after getting off to a spectacular start. After winning the Paris Masters last year, he hasn't really posted any comparable wins - his only top ten victories since then have been against a slumping Djokovic and Gilles Simon, the accidental top-tenner. A win over the world number 1 would certainly turn his season in the right direction. And for Federer, the question remains - after achieving so much in the past few months, completing the grand slam, breaking Pete's record, and becoming a father - will he be able to maintain his desire? Only time will tell.

The night matches are even more exciting. We start off with the closest match-up, ranking-wise, between Roddick and Djokovic, the 5 and 4 seeds. Roddick has won their last two meetings, but Djokovic clipped Roddick at the U.S. Open last year. Djoker also beat Roddick two years ago at this very event, at this very stage. Djokovic is looking to turn around a modest (for him) season, with two wins at minor tournaments, while he's stumbled in the finals at several Master's events. Roddick is having a much better year than he has had in a while, but he still hasn't made an impression at these Master's events. His last final was in 2006. Before he won the U.S. Open in 2003, Roddick won the Canada-Cincinnati double, which I'm sure he'd love to pull off again. In order to do that, he'll have to get through the toughest quarterfinal field ever. Interestingly, even though he is ranked lower, Roddick is a slight favorite over Djokovic, 1.89:2.12.

Finally, the evening will close with Nadal-Del Potro, perhaps the most anticipated match. Even though we're into the quarters, we don't really know how Nadal is feeling. His first match was basically a walkover from Ferrer, and all credit to Petzschner for making it as far as he did, but that's not the toughest test for the world #2. Del Potro, on the other hand, is one of the most in-form players on tour. He also won his last match against Nadal, back in Miami. If Nadal is really recovered, then he should be able to fend off the big Argentine. But if he isn't at 100%, and Del Potro isn't over-tennised, then Del Po should come through. Still, Nadal is the odds-on favorite, 1.69:2.42.

Lots of great stories in play today, with a lot of questions to be answered. But it's time to just sit back and enjoy a day of great match-ups. It's going to be tough for the tennis to live up to the billing, but no matter what happens, it will be exciting.