Of the three ATP tournaments going on this week, two of them are going according to plan, more or less. Not much of particular excitement is taking place in either Estoril or Munich, but we'll address their semifinal lineups momentarily, anyway. First of all, I want to talk about one of the most exciting quarterfinal days we've had all year, at the Serbia Open in Belgrade.
The day opened with John Isner against Richard Gasquet. Despite Gasquet's lower ranking, there was little doubt that he was the favorite. He was the much more accomplished clay court player, and his game should have been suited to the surface. The first set was something of a rout, with Isner losing his serve twice and not even getting a break point against the Frenchman. The second set was tight, and got all the way to 5-all in the tiebreak. At this point, the story was that Isner should have folded under the pressure, but he held tough, took the set, and then won the third 6-3. It's a big win for the American, who has decided he doesn't want to believe the talk about U.S. players or big servers not being able to play on the clay.
The other American in action, Sam Querrey, had a match that I would have bet on him to lose. He took the first set and lost the second, then got up two breaks in the third set. At that point, he completely choked while serving for the match, and let the Russian Igor Andreev get back into the match. It looked similar to his loss in Rome, where he served for the match and was broken. However, here, Sam recovered and managed to serve it out in the second time of asking. Kudos to Querrey for getting out of his own way and winning.
The middle match was supposed to be the highlight, and it was probably the tightest match of the day. Stanislas Wawrinka, a very good clay-court player, was taking on a local favorite, so Viktor Troicki knew he had the crowd behind him. The match went 7-5, 6-7(3), 7-6(6). Wawrinka saved three match points in the third set. It was really a deflating loss for the Serbian fans, but it was nothing compared to what happened in the night match.
Novak Djokovic was slated to play Serbian teenager and wildcard Filip Krajinovic, and he sort of did - for a set. I don't think Djokovic was in any shape to play any kidn of tennis, but he showed up and did his best for a set, because he's the owner of the tournament. This is such a weird situation, but kudos to Djokovic for giving the fans something to see, even if it wasn't what they were hoping for. And it's a lucky break for Krajinovic, who had never won an ATP match before this week and whose previous loss came to a player ranked outside the top 450 in the world. Unless Sam Querrey loses his mind, then Krajinovic is going to get smoked in the semis. The match between Isner and Wawrinka is much more exciting. That one could go either way.
In any case, looking over to Estoril, things have gotten exceptionally boring. I mentioned at the beginning of the week that the only two players who could challenge Federer are Monfils and Ljubicic, who both withdrew before play began. That means that the second-highest ranked player in this tournament is Albert Montanes, ranked 30 places below Federer. That will be Fed's opponent tomorrow, but really, there isn't anyone left who should trouble Roger. A win is a win, but it's almost like he's winning a minor-league event at this point. I don't know how much momentum he can expect to get from notching wins over these guys, who - all respect to their capabilities - are relative scrubs.
There's some potential drama in Munich, at least, as Marcos Baghdatis, who had never been much of a clay court player before, won his match against the top German player, Philipp Kohlschreiber. But the German fans in the audience did get to see one of their own make it through, as Philipp Petzschner upset Tomas Berdych. These players will face the two men are now the favorites to meet in the final, Marin Cilic and Mikhail Youzhny. That could be an exciting match-up. We'll see how things shake out. Cilic has still been a bit shaky, but seems to be more confident than he has been in quite a few weeks.
On the women's tour, Serena Williams was doing her best Roger Federer impersonation in Rome. She lost to Jelena Jankovic, after being up a break in the third set, having a match point on serve, and then being up a mini-break in the third set tiebreak. It's an impressive fightback from Jankovic, who has now beaten both William Sisters back to back, but really a disappointing performance from Serena. Still, does she really need to win Rome again? We'll see how she bounces back in the coming weeks. Jankovic could have faced a resurgent Ana Ivanovic in the final, but her run was upset by another player having a dream week, 26th ranked Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez. Not quite the blockbuster final that the organizers were hoping for, but it's good to see Jankovic playing well again.
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Mid-Week 18
Looking ahead to Wednesday's action, there are some surprisingly tantalizing match-ups, considering that it's the second round of an off week on the ATP tour. But not everywhere.
For example Roger Federer, who has not had the best run since winning the Australian Open, should have a chance to find his form this week, starting tomorrow. He'll face off against Bjorn Phau, ranked 138th in the world. Why Phau is playing in Portugal rather than his home tournament in Munich is beyond me. He certainly couldn't have gotten a tougher second round there. Gael Monfils and Ivan Ljubicic are also in action in tomorrow, and if both are healthy, should not be troubled. Honestly, there's not a lot going on in Estoril. Things may get a bit more exciting in the latter stages of the tournament, but the field just doesn't appear to be that deep.
In Belgrade, on the other hand, there are some really appetizing matches to be played. Andreas Seppi plays Richard Gasquet, who quite nearly double-bageled Olivier Rochus in the first round. John Isner faces off against Josselin Ouanna, a French player who I really like, and who is hoping to find his form before the French Open in a few weeks. The other big server in the field, Ivo Karlovic, plays Igor Andreev. Both of those matches should be interesting - the clay should blunt the effectiveness of the tall men's serves, but both Ouanna and Andreev like to win off big groundstrokes. I'd actually enjoy watching both of those matches. Sam Querrey, another big server, faces off against Evgeny Korolev, and that one could be fun to watch, too. If you happen to be up and available from 6 AM Eastern Time tomorrow, try to catch some on streaming, if you can.
Finally, in Munich, we have a match-up sort of like Roger Federer's, above. Marin Cilic, who had a great run at the Australian open and then won his following tournament, but since then has had less than stellar results. He's hoping to get some traction as well, and a match-up against Michael Berrer should help. Clay is not the German's best surface, and even though it isn't Cilic's either, he should be able to handle himself. Mikhail Youzhny is also in action, against another overmatched German, Andreas Beck. Germany's current number one player, Philipp Kohlschreiber, opens against Daniel Brands, which means that a German is guaranteed to get a win tomorrow! With no Tommy Haas around, that's a good thing.
But the most excitement taking place tomorrow is on the women's tour, in Rome. Serena Williams returned triumphantly in her first match since the Aussie Open. And in what must be helpful in her quest to get some good matches under her belt before the next grand slam, her section of the draw is opening up nicely. Zvonareva lost, Stosur withdrew, and Kuznetsova lost, leaving her the only seed remaining in her quarter. She should make it straight to the semifinals.
Her sister, on the other hand, is facing much sterner competition. Venus plays Shahar Peer tomorrow, followed by the winner of Jankovic and Wickmayer. And then the winner between those four should get to face Serena in the semis. On the other side of the draw, Ana Ivanovic is desperately trying to stage a comeback, but she'll be very strongly tested in her match against Elena Dementieva. I think that Ivanovic got through Azarenka more easily than she should have, so she'll really have to get some of the old magic to get a win against Elena. But she has played that well before - just not recently.
Caroline Wozniacki, in the bottom quarter of the draw, should have a path to the semis that's almost as easy as Serena's. Pennetta and Schiavone unfortunately put up very little resistance in their home tournament. Maybe the pressure of the situation got to them, but they won a combined total of seven games. The only other seed left in Caroline's quarter of the draw is Aggie Radwanska. That would be a good quartefinal, but I give the Dane the edge.
The last few weeks before a grand slam are always interesting. Players want to have good momentum going into a major tournament, but they won't to be exhausted, either. Federer needs a tournament win here, and it wouldn't hurt for Serena to bag the title, either. But these are not the titles that they really want to win. So they play to win, but they aren't playing with the same focus or intensity we'll see in a couple of weeks from them.
For example Roger Federer, who has not had the best run since winning the Australian Open, should have a chance to find his form this week, starting tomorrow. He'll face off against Bjorn Phau, ranked 138th in the world. Why Phau is playing in Portugal rather than his home tournament in Munich is beyond me. He certainly couldn't have gotten a tougher second round there. Gael Monfils and Ivan Ljubicic are also in action in tomorrow, and if both are healthy, should not be troubled. Honestly, there's not a lot going on in Estoril. Things may get a bit more exciting in the latter stages of the tournament, but the field just doesn't appear to be that deep.
In Belgrade, on the other hand, there are some really appetizing matches to be played. Andreas Seppi plays Richard Gasquet, who quite nearly double-bageled Olivier Rochus in the first round. John Isner faces off against Josselin Ouanna, a French player who I really like, and who is hoping to find his form before the French Open in a few weeks. The other big server in the field, Ivo Karlovic, plays Igor Andreev. Both of those matches should be interesting - the clay should blunt the effectiveness of the tall men's serves, but both Ouanna and Andreev like to win off big groundstrokes. I'd actually enjoy watching both of those matches. Sam Querrey, another big server, faces off against Evgeny Korolev, and that one could be fun to watch, too. If you happen to be up and available from 6 AM Eastern Time tomorrow, try to catch some on streaming, if you can.
Finally, in Munich, we have a match-up sort of like Roger Federer's, above. Marin Cilic, who had a great run at the Australian open and then won his following tournament, but since then has had less than stellar results. He's hoping to get some traction as well, and a match-up against Michael Berrer should help. Clay is not the German's best surface, and even though it isn't Cilic's either, he should be able to handle himself. Mikhail Youzhny is also in action, against another overmatched German, Andreas Beck. Germany's current number one player, Philipp Kohlschreiber, opens against Daniel Brands, which means that a German is guaranteed to get a win tomorrow! With no Tommy Haas around, that's a good thing.
But the most excitement taking place tomorrow is on the women's tour, in Rome. Serena Williams returned triumphantly in her first match since the Aussie Open. And in what must be helpful in her quest to get some good matches under her belt before the next grand slam, her section of the draw is opening up nicely. Zvonareva lost, Stosur withdrew, and Kuznetsova lost, leaving her the only seed remaining in her quarter. She should make it straight to the semifinals.
Her sister, on the other hand, is facing much sterner competition. Venus plays Shahar Peer tomorrow, followed by the winner of Jankovic and Wickmayer. And then the winner between those four should get to face Serena in the semis. On the other side of the draw, Ana Ivanovic is desperately trying to stage a comeback, but she'll be very strongly tested in her match against Elena Dementieva. I think that Ivanovic got through Azarenka more easily than she should have, so she'll really have to get some of the old magic to get a win against Elena. But she has played that well before - just not recently.
Caroline Wozniacki, in the bottom quarter of the draw, should have a path to the semis that's almost as easy as Serena's. Pennetta and Schiavone unfortunately put up very little resistance in their home tournament. Maybe the pressure of the situation got to them, but they won a combined total of seven games. The only other seed left in Caroline's quarter of the draw is Aggie Radwanska. That would be a good quartefinal, but I give the Dane the edge.
The last few weeks before a grand slam are always interesting. Players want to have good momentum going into a major tournament, but they won't to be exhausted, either. Federer needs a tournament win here, and it wouldn't hurt for Serena to bag the title, either. But these are not the titles that they really want to win. So they play to win, but they aren't playing with the same focus or intensity we'll see in a couple of weeks from them.
Monday, May 3, 2010
Rome Wrap-up and Week 18 Preview
The result of the Rome final went as predicted, so I'm afraid it doesn't merit a lot of attention. Nadal was running even with Ferrer before the first rain delay, and after that he broke and won the first set. The second, despite another rain delay, wasn't much of a contest. And Nadal is now tied for the most Masters shields of any player since their creation in 1990. He is now ahead of Roger Federer in this department, if you can believe that. He'll be sitting out this week, but back for Madrid. He could take the all-time lead in a few weeks with a win there. We'll see what happens.
In the meantime, there are three lower-tier clay-court tournaments this week. I'll take a quick look at each one in turn. Estoril in Portugal is Roger Federer's tournament, and is his to lose. The Serbia Open, in its second year, should be won by Novak Djokovic because he's the highest seed by far, but also because he owns the damn thing. In Munich, the BMW Open is the most up for grabs of any of this week's tournaments. No obvious favorite, there.
Looking with a little bit more depth, I really don't see who can trouble Roger Federer in his draw. The only players who have the ability to hurt him are the second and third seeds, Gael Monfils and Ivan Ljubicic. But they're both in the bottom half of the draw, so Federer won't face them until the final, at the earliest. They are also both coming off injury, so they might not be at 100%. If Federer doesn't win this tournament, then we'll know that he is really struggling.
In Belgrade, Djokovic is similarly favored, but he has more legitimate competition. All of the Americans who are in action at the top level of the game are in Belgrade, so he may have to get through Sam Querrey or John Isner, in a rematch of the first round of Davis Cup. San Wawrinka, Igor Andreev, and Richard Gasquet are also in the tournament. It's also worth noting that Djokovic's little brother Marko got a wildcard into the tournament and faces off against Italian qualifier Alessio Di Maurio in the first round. Could be interesting to see what he's capable of. There are a few other players in the draw that I like, such as Josselin Ouanna, Michael Russel, Horacio Zeballos, Evgeny Korolev, and Janko "Tipsy" Tipsarevic, but it's a bit early to see if any of them will make any noise.
As I said, the most open tournament is the one in Munich. The top seed, Marin Cilic, is 1-2 so far this year on clay, which is not exactly the kind of record that you hope to be taking into a tournament like this. He'll also be up against Mikhail Youzhny (last year's finalist) and defending champion Tomas Berdych, as well as former champ Philipp Kohlschreiber. Not to mention Marcos Baghdatis and Nicolas Almagro, and unseeded Mario Ancic and Nicolas Kiefer, who have both been in the top ten. This tournament is pretty much wide open, and could produce some of the best matches of the week.
I know I've been neglecting the women's tour recently, so I'm going to do a bit of catch-up today. First of all, huge congratulations to the US Fed Cup team for beating the Russians to get back to the final, even without the Williams sisters. Second, kudos to Justine Henin for winning the first title of her comeback, just in time to prep for the French Open, where she will now be seeded, if I am not mistaken. Could she win it? I don't really know who the other contenders might be, honestly.
The women's tournament in Rome takes place this week, and this is the first time that so many of the top players have all been in action since the Australian Open. Nine of the top ten players are here, with only Sam Stosur withdrawing after losing her final to Justine Henin. It's Serena's first tournament since her win at the Australian Open. We'll see how she's doing - Dinara Safina is back as well. Really, this is the chance to see how everyone is doing in the lead-up to the French. Except for Kim Clijsters, who is having some trouble with injury. It would be a shame if she misses the tournament this year.
Lots of action coming up this week, since in addition to everything I've mentioned already, there are some interesting challenger matches that I'm keeping my eyes on. We'll see how the week develops.
In the meantime, there are three lower-tier clay-court tournaments this week. I'll take a quick look at each one in turn. Estoril in Portugal is Roger Federer's tournament, and is his to lose. The Serbia Open, in its second year, should be won by Novak Djokovic because he's the highest seed by far, but also because he owns the damn thing. In Munich, the BMW Open is the most up for grabs of any of this week's tournaments. No obvious favorite, there.
Looking with a little bit more depth, I really don't see who can trouble Roger Federer in his draw. The only players who have the ability to hurt him are the second and third seeds, Gael Monfils and Ivan Ljubicic. But they're both in the bottom half of the draw, so Federer won't face them until the final, at the earliest. They are also both coming off injury, so they might not be at 100%. If Federer doesn't win this tournament, then we'll know that he is really struggling.
In Belgrade, Djokovic is similarly favored, but he has more legitimate competition. All of the Americans who are in action at the top level of the game are in Belgrade, so he may have to get through Sam Querrey or John Isner, in a rematch of the first round of Davis Cup. San Wawrinka, Igor Andreev, and Richard Gasquet are also in the tournament. It's also worth noting that Djokovic's little brother Marko got a wildcard into the tournament and faces off against Italian qualifier Alessio Di Maurio in the first round. Could be interesting to see what he's capable of. There are a few other players in the draw that I like, such as Josselin Ouanna, Michael Russel, Horacio Zeballos, Evgeny Korolev, and Janko "Tipsy" Tipsarevic, but it's a bit early to see if any of them will make any noise.
As I said, the most open tournament is the one in Munich. The top seed, Marin Cilic, is 1-2 so far this year on clay, which is not exactly the kind of record that you hope to be taking into a tournament like this. He'll also be up against Mikhail Youzhny (last year's finalist) and defending champion Tomas Berdych, as well as former champ Philipp Kohlschreiber. Not to mention Marcos Baghdatis and Nicolas Almagro, and unseeded Mario Ancic and Nicolas Kiefer, who have both been in the top ten. This tournament is pretty much wide open, and could produce some of the best matches of the week.
I know I've been neglecting the women's tour recently, so I'm going to do a bit of catch-up today. First of all, huge congratulations to the US Fed Cup team for beating the Russians to get back to the final, even without the Williams sisters. Second, kudos to Justine Henin for winning the first title of her comeback, just in time to prep for the French Open, where she will now be seeded, if I am not mistaken. Could she win it? I don't really know who the other contenders might be, honestly.
The women's tournament in Rome takes place this week, and this is the first time that so many of the top players have all been in action since the Australian Open. Nine of the top ten players are here, with only Sam Stosur withdrawing after losing her final to Justine Henin. It's Serena's first tournament since her win at the Australian Open. We'll see how she's doing - Dinara Safina is back as well. Really, this is the chance to see how everyone is doing in the lead-up to the French. Except for Kim Clijsters, who is having some trouble with injury. It would be a shame if she misses the tournament this year.
Lots of action coming up this week, since in addition to everything I've mentioned already, there are some interesting challenger matches that I'm keeping my eyes on. We'll see how the week develops.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Rome Final
Well, I was almost right about the semifinals yesterday. Verdasco was just too tired to play against Ferrer, and that was the big difference in their contest. Ferrer was too solid, but that's not to surprising. It was a tight first set, but Verdasco fell away in the second. Verdasco started strong, getting out to a 5-1 lead in the first set, but he went on to lose the next six games, which is just about as dispiriting as it can get. I don't know if either player was at their best, with eight total breaks of serve. One of the strongest indicators of Verdasco's physical and mental exhaustion was the way he served. His first serve percentage was almost 75% but he won only 56% of his first serve points. That's the way he served before 2009, when he worked on his fitness and drastically improved the power behind his serve. That was what pushed him into the top ten, but when he gets exhausted, it's no shock that he goes back to his old style. A spectacular couple of weeks for "Hot Sauce" and I hope he recovers in time for the next Masters event and the French Open.
The other match, though, didn't go quite as I predicted. Even though the end result was the one that I expected, Ernests Gulbis played really strong tennis for the majority of the match, and Nadal's level was the lowest it had been since the beginning of the clay season. These two facts may have been related. In any case, this was a great match - one of the best ones on clay yet this year. Nadal broke twice, in the first game of the match and the last one. In both, Gulbis was a bit mentally unsteady. He came out shaky on serve, and in the last game he clearly felt the pressure of serving to stay in the match, and as a result he rushed himself.
Aside from those two games, Gulbis served brilliantly. He hit 14 aces, got 77% of his first serves in, and won 73% of those points. He was smacking his forehand from every part of the court, and he was keeping Nadal pinned back so far that it allowed to hit some great drop shot winners. Unfortunately, he misfired on three in the last two games, which ended up costing him the match. Up until 4-5 in the third set, Gulbis had won two more points than Nadal over the course of the match. Now, all credit to Gulbis for playing the kind of tennis that can trouble Nadal, but he wasn't at his best. Nadal knew he was not up to his usual level, but he's a perfectionist. Still, even Gulbis said that he was expecting a higher level from Nadal. Particularly after a loss, that's not something a player usually says about his opponent. We all know that Nadal could have played better, but a win is a win.
Even if he plays only as well as he did against Gulbis, Nadal should win against Ferrer in the final. But I don't think he'll be quite as subdued in his level of play tomorrow. First of all, Ferrer lacks the firepower that Gulbis does, and Nadal has much more trouble dealing with good attack than he does with good defense, which is mostly what Ferrer has to offer. The only chance that Ferrer has if that Nadal's performance today was not a minor dip, but rather an indication of some more serious problem. I don't think that's terribly likely.
The other match, though, didn't go quite as I predicted. Even though the end result was the one that I expected, Ernests Gulbis played really strong tennis for the majority of the match, and Nadal's level was the lowest it had been since the beginning of the clay season. These two facts may have been related. In any case, this was a great match - one of the best ones on clay yet this year. Nadal broke twice, in the first game of the match and the last one. In both, Gulbis was a bit mentally unsteady. He came out shaky on serve, and in the last game he clearly felt the pressure of serving to stay in the match, and as a result he rushed himself.
Aside from those two games, Gulbis served brilliantly. He hit 14 aces, got 77% of his first serves in, and won 73% of those points. He was smacking his forehand from every part of the court, and he was keeping Nadal pinned back so far that it allowed to hit some great drop shot winners. Unfortunately, he misfired on three in the last two games, which ended up costing him the match. Up until 4-5 in the third set, Gulbis had won two more points than Nadal over the course of the match. Now, all credit to Gulbis for playing the kind of tennis that can trouble Nadal, but he wasn't at his best. Nadal knew he was not up to his usual level, but he's a perfectionist. Still, even Gulbis said that he was expecting a higher level from Nadal. Particularly after a loss, that's not something a player usually says about his opponent. We all know that Nadal could have played better, but a win is a win.
Even if he plays only as well as he did against Gulbis, Nadal should win against Ferrer in the final. But I don't think he'll be quite as subdued in his level of play tomorrow. First of all, Ferrer lacks the firepower that Gulbis does, and Nadal has much more trouble dealing with good attack than he does with good defense, which is mostly what Ferrer has to offer. The only chance that Ferrer has if that Nadal's performance today was not a minor dip, but rather an indication of some more serious problem. I don't think that's terribly likely.
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