John Isner made his second final yesterday at the Heineken Open in Auckland. He made his first back in 2007 in the Washington, DC Legg Mason Classic. In that tournament, he had won five consecutive third-set tiebreaks before he lost to Andy Roddick in straight sets in the final. This week, he didn't have to play a single third-set tiebreak until the final against Arnaud Clement. But he almost didn't get there.
Isner was cruising on serve, having taken the first set and serving to get into a second-set tiebreak. That was how he had beaten Albert Montanes in the semis. But Clement is a more accomplished hardcourt player than Montanes was, and his experience started to show. Leading 6-5, Clement did the impossible and broke Isner to take the match to a decisive third set.
In the third, Isner was serving again at 5-6, and he got down a break point, which happened to be a match point. It seemed like the pressure of winning his first title had gotten to him, and Clement might take his first title since 2006. (Oddly enough, Clement's last win came at the DC tournament where Isner made the final a year later) But Isner showed that he is developing and maturing as a player, and he saved the break point with a clutch serve-and-volley play followed by a decisive smash. The way he saved the break point was key, since it wasn't a Clement error or an easy ace. It gave him the confidence to run away with the tiebreak, 7-2. Congrats to the big man.
I was surprised to see that the final in Sydney was nowhere near as exciting. Gasquet could not find his form again, after he had looked flat against Benneteau in the semis. Richard had been playing amazing tennis for the first three rounds, but then he lost his edge. He still managed to beat his countryman, but it wasn't anywhere near enough to beat a fired-up Baghdatis in the final. Gasquet started the match by giving his serve away, and never managed to break Baggy in that set. The match was tighter in the second, after a rain delay, but Gasquet couldn't bring his best in the tiebreak.
This isn't a bad loss for Gasquet, since Baghdatis is a former top-ten player who looks like he's on his way back. This is Gasquet's first final since 2008, but he hasn't won a title since 2007. He needs to be able to get back to that next level, which we know he's capable of doing, in order to be back among the game's elite.
But kudos to Baghdatis, who was able to come back from his exhausting semifinal with Mardy Fish in excellent form. After quite a few years of playing sub-standard tennis, he looks like he's the real deal. I would say that the other players in his section of the draw at the Australian Open should watch out.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Friday, January 15, 2010
Finals Week 2 - Best Match of the Year So Far!
I'm not talking about the Serena Williams - Elena Dementieva final in Sydney, which actually turned out to be a bit of a dud, but the men's semifinal which preceded it. Marcos Baghdatis and Mardy Fish went on for nearly three hours and two tiebreak sets. In the end, it was decided on an error from Fish - but not a shotmaking error. In fact, he had hit a spectacular cross-court pass that probably would have forced Baghdatis to miss his shot, but Fish challenged the call on the baseline. In the end, the "in" call had been correct, and Fish lost the point.
This was at 3-all in the third set tiebreak, and Baghdatis won both of his points on serve, giving him three match points. Fish gamely defended the first two on his own deal, but lost the third. It was the 243rd point of the match, and it was a fitting end. Despite how well Fish fought, Baghdatis had been slightly better the entire day. Both players were on their games for nearly the entire match, and there was some spectacular shot-making. Baggy's backhand half-volley winner from the baseline springs to mind, as does Fish's sacrificial diving volley on break point. Great match, all around. Bother players should be encouraged going into the AO with that kind of performance.
However, I don't give Baghdatis too much of a shot against Gasquet, who had a much easier time against Julien Benneateau even though he wasn't playing very well. But Baghdatis has to be tired, and Gasquet should be relatively fresh. It could be a good final, though.
But there's a chance it will be as much of a letdown as the highly-touted women's final. Serena seemed hobbled, and Dementieva was solid, winning 6-3, 6-2. Serena still has not won a regular tour event since April 2008, and Dementieva should have some confidence going into next week's major, having beaten the world's top two players. If it were anyone but Serena, I would say this hurts her chances of defending her title in Melbourne, but I've learned that her performance outside the slams really has no impact on her performance in them.
In Auckland, the last two seeds fell, with John Isner beating Albert Montanes and Arnaud Clement beating Philipp Kohlschreiber. Isner and Clement have now each beaten three seeds and will meet in the final for the first time. Isner is more than a foot taller than Clement, but this will be tight. Clement hasn't won a title since 2006, and Isner hasn't won a title ever. This is only his second final, after he made a dream run to the Washington final in 2007 in one of his first pro tournaments. I'm picking the big man to win his first title, but Clement is such a smart player, anything could happen.
This was at 3-all in the third set tiebreak, and Baghdatis won both of his points on serve, giving him three match points. Fish gamely defended the first two on his own deal, but lost the third. It was the 243rd point of the match, and it was a fitting end. Despite how well Fish fought, Baghdatis had been slightly better the entire day. Both players were on their games for nearly the entire match, and there was some spectacular shot-making. Baggy's backhand half-volley winner from the baseline springs to mind, as does Fish's sacrificial diving volley on break point. Great match, all around. Bother players should be encouraged going into the AO with that kind of performance.
However, I don't give Baghdatis too much of a shot against Gasquet, who had a much easier time against Julien Benneateau even though he wasn't playing very well. But Baghdatis has to be tired, and Gasquet should be relatively fresh. It could be a good final, though.
But there's a chance it will be as much of a letdown as the highly-touted women's final. Serena seemed hobbled, and Dementieva was solid, winning 6-3, 6-2. Serena still has not won a regular tour event since April 2008, and Dementieva should have some confidence going into next week's major, having beaten the world's top two players. If it were anyone but Serena, I would say this hurts her chances of defending her title in Melbourne, but I've learned that her performance outside the slams really has no impact on her performance in them.
In Auckland, the last two seeds fell, with John Isner beating Albert Montanes and Arnaud Clement beating Philipp Kohlschreiber. Isner and Clement have now each beaten three seeds and will meet in the final for the first time. Isner is more than a foot taller than Clement, but this will be tight. Clement hasn't won a title since 2006, and Isner hasn't won a title ever. This is only his second final, after he made a dream run to the Washington final in 2007 in one of his first pro tournaments. I'm picking the big man to win his first title, but Clement is such a smart player, anything could happen.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Australian Open Draw Analysis
The draw is out; let the predictions begin!
There are so many ways to look at a tennis tournament's drawsheet, but what I like to do first is see what the quarterfinals would look like if the top eight seeds hold up, which has never happened in a grand slam, but is still a good way to get a sense of the where the top players are in the tournament. In-depth analysis will follow.
Top quarter:
Federer (1) vs. Davydenko (6) - There was a time when this would have been a dream for Roger Federer, as the Swiss had owned the Russian in 12 meetings. However, Davydenko has beaten Federer twice in a row in the last few months, and while he's yet to do it at a grand slam, I don't think Fed wanted to see this man waiting for him.
Second quarter:
Djokovic (3) vs. Soderling (8) - A pretty good draw for the Djoker, particularly since Soderling just retired from his match at the Kooyong exhibition with an injury. This would be better if Soderling hadn't just notched his first win against Novak at the year-end championships in London, but with a 5-1 record, he has to be fairly happy with this opponent.
Third quarter:
Roddick (7) vs. Del Potro (4) - Not ideal for Andy, because he has lost to Del Potro on all three times that they've met. However, DelPo has also been struggling with injury and pulled out of a match at Kooyong, so that may work in Roddick's favor. They both fell to Roger Federer last year (Del Po in the quarters, Roddick in the semis) and I'm sure Roddick is particularly happy to be in the other half of the draw, this year.
Fourth quarter:
Murray (5) vs. Nadal (2) - The defending champion ends up with Murray as his quarterfinal opponent, since the Scot let his ranking slip out of the top four last week. Murray is 2-7 against Nadal, but both of those wins did come on hard courts, one at the U.S. Open in 2008. The Spaniard will have to work hard and reverse several months of less-than-stellar form to defend his title.
Of course, to get this point, the top eight have to get through 120 other players first. As I said, the top eight seeds have never all made it to the quarterfinal at a grand slam in the open era, so the odds of at least one of the aforementioned players losing before this stage is almost a hundred percent. But who's going to topple early?
Federer has a favorable draw, as is usually the case with the top-seeded player. His opening round match should actually be the toughest of his first three, no matter who he faces. Fed plays Igor Andreev, who took the Swiss to five sets at the US Open's round of 16 in 2008. Once Roger gets past him, his next two rounds will almost inevitably feature clay court specialists. The fourth round for Federer could be interesting, as he'll likely face either Lleyton Hewitt, Marcos Baghdatis, or Giles Simon. Two of them are former finalists here, and all three want to get back to the top ten.
Davydenko arguably has an even easier road than Federer, as the Russian opens against a qualifier, then players either another qualifier or Carlos Moya, who is also an Aussie Open runner-up, but that was 12 years ago. Davydenko's section has more qualifiers than other eighth of the drew (five) and two of the other three seeds are clay-corut specialists, Juan Monaco and Juan Carlos Ferrero, who isn't quite as far past his prime as Moya, but a deep run from him is not especially likely. Davydenko's likely fourth-round would be against last year's semifinalist Fernando Verdasco, and that could be a tough match. But Verdasco as only one once against Davydenko in seven tries. It's unlikely that Aussie wildcard Carsten Ball opens against Verdasco, because that's a tough ask, but he's got an outside chance of pulling the upset. The other potential spoiler in Davydenko's section is Ernests Gulbis, if he decides to play as well as he's capable.
Djokovic's eighth of the draw is quite favorable. The first seed he might meet is erratic young Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, who hasn't made it past the second round at any grand slam event not held on his home soil. He might meet Mikhail Youzhny or Tommy Robredo next, and while both are excellent players who have at least one win over Djoker, I think that Novak can handle both. The dangerous floaters in this section of the draw are unseeded former slam semifinalists Richard Gasquet and Robby Ginepri.
The last section in the top half of the draw has the least amount of distance between the top two seeds. Particularly if Soderling turns up injured, this may turn out to be Tsonga's section, instead. I know Djokovic would rather face the Swede than Tsonga, since JW has owned Novak in four out of five matches since they first met in the final here two years ago. In any case, Soderling would have to get by tough Spanish lefty Nicolas Almagro to face Tsonga, but Tsonga would have to beat either Taylor Dent, Taylor Haas, Janko Tipsarevic, or young American phenom Ryan Harrison. As a matter of fact, the Tipsarevic-Harrison matchup is the second-most interesting match I can identify out of the 64 in the first round of the draw.
Okay, half way there!
Moving on to the bottom half of the draw, Andy Roddick has been given a minefield of tricky players to work his way through. He opens against the very young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker. De Bakker has not yet won a grand slam match, so it's unlucky for him that his second is against last year's semifinalist. After that, things only get trickier. His second-round opponent is likely going to be Tomaz Bellucci, who is also gaining confidence, even though he has yet to post that big win that will put him on the map. He could face former finalist Rainer Schuettler next, or fellow American Sam Querrey. Sam doesn't seem to have to gotten over his injury quite yet, but he can get his kick-started here. And even once Roddick gets through that group, he'll have to face either Tomas Berdych, Fernando Gonzalez, or Evgeny Korolev. By no means an easy task.
Roddick is aiming to play the winner of the sixth section of the draw, which features Del Potro and Cilic as the top two seeds. While a clash between them is likely (during last year's AO, I predicted they would play plenty of times) it all depends on whether Del Potro is healthy. If not, there's a possible opening, and the player who would be most desperate to take it is James Blake. Cilic's little bit of the draw is very interesting, as he opens against Fabrice Santoro is what is basically a consolation match, just so Fabrice can play in a grand slam event in four different decades - 80's, 90's, 00's, and 10's. He is seeded to meet Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who he just faced down in two tiebreaks in the Chennai final a week ago. The other player in this section of the draw is Aussie wildcard Bernard Tomic, who opens against a qualifier, which is as much as he could have hoped for.
Since Murray dropped out of the top four, he may surprised to find himself in Nadal's quarter, rather than his own. But even so, he has to be happy with his draw. His section is conspicuously missing the heavy hitters who blew him off the court at all four majors last year. His first real test will be against either Jurgen Melzer or Jarkko Nieminen, but neither player should trouble him too much. But the player he'll face in the fourth round will be interesting. There's a likely second-round matchup between Daniel Koellerer and Gael Monfils, the two best showmen on the ATP tour. After that, Monfils could face Ferrer, which would be a fascinating contrast of styles. It's going to be tough for either to beat Murray, though.
Finally, to the last section of the draw, we find the most exciting first-round match of the tournament in Nadal's eighth, but it isn't anywhere near him. No, the best first-round matchup is between Radek Stepanek and Ivo Karlovic. You may recall, last year Karlovic lost to Stepanek in a Davis Cup rubber 16-14 in the fifth after playing four tiebreak sets! There is absolutely no way this match can live up to that, but it has potential to be excellent, nonetheless. Nadal actually has a tough draw, himself. He opens against a 30-year old Australian playing the tennis of his life, Peter Luczak. His third round match could be against one of two tough opponents, Phillip Kohlschreiber (who ousted Roddick at that stage in 2008) or John Isner (who just reached his second career tour final). And even after that, he'll have to get through either Stepanek, Karlovic, Mardy Fish, or Ivan Ljubicic.
I'll have more analysis in the coming days, particularly once the qualifiers are placed. Along with my picks, of course!
There are so many ways to look at a tennis tournament's drawsheet, but what I like to do first is see what the quarterfinals would look like if the top eight seeds hold up, which has never happened in a grand slam, but is still a good way to get a sense of the where the top players are in the tournament. In-depth analysis will follow.
Top quarter:
Federer (1) vs. Davydenko (6) - There was a time when this would have been a dream for Roger Federer, as the Swiss had owned the Russian in 12 meetings. However, Davydenko has beaten Federer twice in a row in the last few months, and while he's yet to do it at a grand slam, I don't think Fed wanted to see this man waiting for him.
Second quarter:
Djokovic (3) vs. Soderling (8) - A pretty good draw for the Djoker, particularly since Soderling just retired from his match at the Kooyong exhibition with an injury. This would be better if Soderling hadn't just notched his first win against Novak at the year-end championships in London, but with a 5-1 record, he has to be fairly happy with this opponent.
Third quarter:
Roddick (7) vs. Del Potro (4) - Not ideal for Andy, because he has lost to Del Potro on all three times that they've met. However, DelPo has also been struggling with injury and pulled out of a match at Kooyong, so that may work in Roddick's favor. They both fell to Roger Federer last year (Del Po in the quarters, Roddick in the semis) and I'm sure Roddick is particularly happy to be in the other half of the draw, this year.
Fourth quarter:
Murray (5) vs. Nadal (2) - The defending champion ends up with Murray as his quarterfinal opponent, since the Scot let his ranking slip out of the top four last week. Murray is 2-7 against Nadal, but both of those wins did come on hard courts, one at the U.S. Open in 2008. The Spaniard will have to work hard and reverse several months of less-than-stellar form to defend his title.
Of course, to get this point, the top eight have to get through 120 other players first. As I said, the top eight seeds have never all made it to the quarterfinal at a grand slam in the open era, so the odds of at least one of the aforementioned players losing before this stage is almost a hundred percent. But who's going to topple early?
Federer has a favorable draw, as is usually the case with the top-seeded player. His opening round match should actually be the toughest of his first three, no matter who he faces. Fed plays Igor Andreev, who took the Swiss to five sets at the US Open's round of 16 in 2008. Once Roger gets past him, his next two rounds will almost inevitably feature clay court specialists. The fourth round for Federer could be interesting, as he'll likely face either Lleyton Hewitt, Marcos Baghdatis, or Giles Simon. Two of them are former finalists here, and all three want to get back to the top ten.
Davydenko arguably has an even easier road than Federer, as the Russian opens against a qualifier, then players either another qualifier or Carlos Moya, who is also an Aussie Open runner-up, but that was 12 years ago. Davydenko's section has more qualifiers than other eighth of the drew (five) and two of the other three seeds are clay-corut specialists, Juan Monaco and Juan Carlos Ferrero, who isn't quite as far past his prime as Moya, but a deep run from him is not especially likely. Davydenko's likely fourth-round would be against last year's semifinalist Fernando Verdasco, and that could be a tough match. But Verdasco as only one once against Davydenko in seven tries. It's unlikely that Aussie wildcard Carsten Ball opens against Verdasco, because that's a tough ask, but he's got an outside chance of pulling the upset. The other potential spoiler in Davydenko's section is Ernests Gulbis, if he decides to play as well as he's capable.
Djokovic's eighth of the draw is quite favorable. The first seed he might meet is erratic young Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, who hasn't made it past the second round at any grand slam event not held on his home soil. He might meet Mikhail Youzhny or Tommy Robredo next, and while both are excellent players who have at least one win over Djoker, I think that Novak can handle both. The dangerous floaters in this section of the draw are unseeded former slam semifinalists Richard Gasquet and Robby Ginepri.
The last section in the top half of the draw has the least amount of distance between the top two seeds. Particularly if Soderling turns up injured, this may turn out to be Tsonga's section, instead. I know Djokovic would rather face the Swede than Tsonga, since JW has owned Novak in four out of five matches since they first met in the final here two years ago. In any case, Soderling would have to get by tough Spanish lefty Nicolas Almagro to face Tsonga, but Tsonga would have to beat either Taylor Dent, Taylor Haas, Janko Tipsarevic, or young American phenom Ryan Harrison. As a matter of fact, the Tipsarevic-Harrison matchup is the second-most interesting match I can identify out of the 64 in the first round of the draw.
Okay, half way there!
Moving on to the bottom half of the draw, Andy Roddick has been given a minefield of tricky players to work his way through. He opens against the very young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker. De Bakker has not yet won a grand slam match, so it's unlucky for him that his second is against last year's semifinalist. After that, things only get trickier. His second-round opponent is likely going to be Tomaz Bellucci, who is also gaining confidence, even though he has yet to post that big win that will put him on the map. He could face former finalist Rainer Schuettler next, or fellow American Sam Querrey. Sam doesn't seem to have to gotten over his injury quite yet, but he can get his kick-started here. And even once Roddick gets through that group, he'll have to face either Tomas Berdych, Fernando Gonzalez, or Evgeny Korolev. By no means an easy task.
Roddick is aiming to play the winner of the sixth section of the draw, which features Del Potro and Cilic as the top two seeds. While a clash between them is likely (during last year's AO, I predicted they would play plenty of times) it all depends on whether Del Potro is healthy. If not, there's a possible opening, and the player who would be most desperate to take it is James Blake. Cilic's little bit of the draw is very interesting, as he opens against Fabrice Santoro is what is basically a consolation match, just so Fabrice can play in a grand slam event in four different decades - 80's, 90's, 00's, and 10's. He is seeded to meet Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who he just faced down in two tiebreaks in the Chennai final a week ago. The other player in this section of the draw is Aussie wildcard Bernard Tomic, who opens against a qualifier, which is as much as he could have hoped for.
Since Murray dropped out of the top four, he may surprised to find himself in Nadal's quarter, rather than his own. But even so, he has to be happy with his draw. His section is conspicuously missing the heavy hitters who blew him off the court at all four majors last year. His first real test will be against either Jurgen Melzer or Jarkko Nieminen, but neither player should trouble him too much. But the player he'll face in the fourth round will be interesting. There's a likely second-round matchup between Daniel Koellerer and Gael Monfils, the two best showmen on the ATP tour. After that, Monfils could face Ferrer, which would be a fascinating contrast of styles. It's going to be tough for either to beat Murray, though.
Finally, to the last section of the draw, we find the most exciting first-round match of the tournament in Nadal's eighth, but it isn't anywhere near him. No, the best first-round matchup is between Radek Stepanek and Ivo Karlovic. You may recall, last year Karlovic lost to Stepanek in a Davis Cup rubber 16-14 in the fifth after playing four tiebreak sets! There is absolutely no way this match can live up to that, but it has potential to be excellent, nonetheless. Nadal actually has a tough draw, himself. He opens against a 30-year old Australian playing the tennis of his life, Peter Luczak. His third round match could be against one of two tough opponents, Phillip Kohlschreiber (who ousted Roddick at that stage in 2008) or John Isner (who just reached his second career tour final). And even after that, he'll have to get through either Stepanek, Karlovic, Mardy Fish, or Ivan Ljubicic.
I'll have more analysis in the coming days, particularly once the qualifiers are placed. Along with my picks, of course!
Semifinals Week 2
There was one big upset yesterday, and one almost-upset. In Auckland, John Isner avenged his defeat at the Hopman Cup by Tommy Robredo, beating the Spaniard in three tight sets. Isner hit twenty aces, but even more surprisingly, broke Robredo three times! I'd consider this a very impressive win for the big American, and while I don't put him in contention for winning the Aussie Open (that field is big enough already) I do think he can build on his win over Andy Roddick last September by upsetting another big seed.
The near-upset came at Sydney, when Serena Williams was nearly defeated by Aravane Rezai. Down a set and 5-3, Rezai served for the match, but couldn't close the door. Afterward, she said she wasn't impressed by Serena, and that she could have won. If Serena had been the one to break her while she was serving, or if she had gotten the break on a net cord winner or something, I could see her saying this. As it stands, she gave it away when she had the match in hand, so it seemed pretty classless to denigrate her opponent after choking. Still, it was an impressive performance when I had considered the match to be a mere formality.
The other semifinal was supposed to be more competitive, but turned out to be boring. Dementieva plowed through Azarenka, setting up the best final that we could have asked for. Serena and Dementieva played one of the best matches on the women's tour last year, so they could rival the Clijsters-Henin final of last week. Serena's looking to break her streak of not winning a regular tour event, while Dementieva wants everyone to know that she's in the hunt at the Aussie Open, this year. It's a big match.
Also in Sydney, the last seed on the men's side fell, when Baghditis beat Lleyton Hewitt in three tight sets. It wasn't quite as epic as their clash at last year's Aussie Open, but it was an impressive performance from both. Hewitt looked like the Hewitt of old during the first set, but then Baggy played like the guy who made the 2006 final in the next two.
Hewitt was the second-last Australian in the draw, but the last one didn't hang around much longer. Thirty-year old Peter Luczak fell to Mardy Fish in the night match, in another tight contest. In the end, Fish made a few too many shots, Luczak made a few too many errors, and he went to the drop shot well a few too many times. Still, an impressive show from the Aussie who is experiencing his greatest ever run after most players are considering retirement.
As a result, Fish plays Baghdatis in a rematch of last week's Brisbane first round. That was a tough one, with Baggy winning 7-5, 7-5, and as John Isner has just demonstrated, a player can lose one week and win the next. That should be an exciting semifinal.
The other semi could be the match that Serena-Rezia should have been, as Richard Gasquet faces Julien Benneteau. They played at this tournament, two years, and Gasquet won easily. He should do so, again. If "Baby Fed" doesn't win this match, he's going to be very disappointed with his showing.
The other most important thing to note is that Juan Martin Del Potro pulled out of his match against JW Tsonga at the AAMI Kooyong exhibition tournament, citing a wrist injury. He's been troubled by tendinitis before, so maybe he's just being careful. Then again, this could affect his chances at next week's Open. So the final at Kooyong will be Verdasco, who breezed past Djokovic (pun intended, they were playing in ridiculous winds) and Tsonga. Both players have done well at the Australian Open, but both also have a lot to prove.
The near-upset came at Sydney, when Serena Williams was nearly defeated by Aravane Rezai. Down a set and 5-3, Rezai served for the match, but couldn't close the door. Afterward, she said she wasn't impressed by Serena, and that she could have won. If Serena had been the one to break her while she was serving, or if she had gotten the break on a net cord winner or something, I could see her saying this. As it stands, she gave it away when she had the match in hand, so it seemed pretty classless to denigrate her opponent after choking. Still, it was an impressive performance when I had considered the match to be a mere formality.
The other semifinal was supposed to be more competitive, but turned out to be boring. Dementieva plowed through Azarenka, setting up the best final that we could have asked for. Serena and Dementieva played one of the best matches on the women's tour last year, so they could rival the Clijsters-Henin final of last week. Serena's looking to break her streak of not winning a regular tour event, while Dementieva wants everyone to know that she's in the hunt at the Aussie Open, this year. It's a big match.
Also in Sydney, the last seed on the men's side fell, when Baghditis beat Lleyton Hewitt in three tight sets. It wasn't quite as epic as their clash at last year's Aussie Open, but it was an impressive performance from both. Hewitt looked like the Hewitt of old during the first set, but then Baggy played like the guy who made the 2006 final in the next two.
Hewitt was the second-last Australian in the draw, but the last one didn't hang around much longer. Thirty-year old Peter Luczak fell to Mardy Fish in the night match, in another tight contest. In the end, Fish made a few too many shots, Luczak made a few too many errors, and he went to the drop shot well a few too many times. Still, an impressive show from the Aussie who is experiencing his greatest ever run after most players are considering retirement.
As a result, Fish plays Baghdatis in a rematch of last week's Brisbane first round. That was a tough one, with Baggy winning 7-5, 7-5, and as John Isner has just demonstrated, a player can lose one week and win the next. That should be an exciting semifinal.
The other semi could be the match that Serena-Rezia should have been, as Richard Gasquet faces Julien Benneteau. They played at this tournament, two years, and Gasquet won easily. He should do so, again. If "Baby Fed" doesn't win this match, he's going to be very disappointed with his showing.
The other most important thing to note is that Juan Martin Del Potro pulled out of his match against JW Tsonga at the AAMI Kooyong exhibition tournament, citing a wrist injury. He's been troubled by tendinitis before, so maybe he's just being careful. Then again, this could affect his chances at next week's Open. So the final at Kooyong will be Verdasco, who breezed past Djokovic (pun intended, they were playing in ridiculous winds) and Tsonga. Both players have done well at the Australian Open, but both also have a lot to prove.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Week 2 Quarterfinals
It seems like most of the tour has shut down in anticipation of the Australian Open starting next week.
In Sydney, the men's draw has just fallen apart. Two seeds withdrew, and five of the remaining lost by the third round. The only seed remaining is Lleyton Hewitt, who unfortunately has to play one of the other contenders in the quarterfinals, Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis. You may remember that Hewitt and Baghdatis played a match at the Australian Open last year that went until 4:30 in the morning. It seems unlikely that this meeting will be quite as epic, but the winner will have a good chance of winning the tournament.
The other two players who have a realistic shot at the win are Mardy Fish, who would play the winner of Hewitt-Baggy in the semis, and Richard Gasquet, who is all alone in his half of the draw. If he doesn't make the final at least, this week will be a disappointment. The other three players left in his half are Starace, Benneateau, and Mayer, fine players all but Gasquet needs to be able to beat them without too much trouble if he wants to get back to the top tier of the game.
The women's side of the draw remains a bit more competitive, with three seeds making it to the semifinals. Serena Williams blew through her opponent Vera Dushevina 2 and 2, which is not a surprise. What is a surprise is that Elena Dementieva beat Dinara Safina by almost that same margin. Now Williams plays Rezai in a formality of a match, while Dementieva plays Azarenka for the chance to face Serena in the final. It seems like Serena's victory should be a foregone conclusion, but she hasn't won a regular tour title (discounting grand slams or end-of-year championships) since April of 2008. She sure looks poised to break that streak, though.
In Auckland, there's an interesting quarterfinal match between John Isner and Tommy Robredo, which is a rematch of their tough three-setter last week in the Hopman Cup. Robredo came out on top in that contest, but he's played a lot more tennis in the interim. It could be a good match.
Finally, I've just set up a twitter account, from which I'll be posting updates to this blog as well as live commentary on some matches, in the future. Check me out at http://twitter.com/matchpointace !
In Sydney, the men's draw has just fallen apart. Two seeds withdrew, and five of the remaining lost by the third round. The only seed remaining is Lleyton Hewitt, who unfortunately has to play one of the other contenders in the quarterfinals, Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis. You may remember that Hewitt and Baghdatis played a match at the Australian Open last year that went until 4:30 in the morning. It seems unlikely that this meeting will be quite as epic, but the winner will have a good chance of winning the tournament.
The other two players who have a realistic shot at the win are Mardy Fish, who would play the winner of Hewitt-Baggy in the semis, and Richard Gasquet, who is all alone in his half of the draw. If he doesn't make the final at least, this week will be a disappointment. The other three players left in his half are Starace, Benneateau, and Mayer, fine players all but Gasquet needs to be able to beat them without too much trouble if he wants to get back to the top tier of the game.
The women's side of the draw remains a bit more competitive, with three seeds making it to the semifinals. Serena Williams blew through her opponent Vera Dushevina 2 and 2, which is not a surprise. What is a surprise is that Elena Dementieva beat Dinara Safina by almost that same margin. Now Williams plays Rezai in a formality of a match, while Dementieva plays Azarenka for the chance to face Serena in the final. It seems like Serena's victory should be a foregone conclusion, but she hasn't won a regular tour title (discounting grand slams or end-of-year championships) since April of 2008. She sure looks poised to break that streak, though.
In Auckland, there's an interesting quarterfinal match between John Isner and Tommy Robredo, which is a rematch of their tough three-setter last week in the Hopman Cup. Robredo came out on top in that contest, but he's played a lot more tennis in the interim. It could be a good match.
Finally, I've just set up a twitter account, from which I'll be posting updates to this blog as well as live commentary on some matches, in the future. Check me out at http://twitter.com/matchpointace !
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Quickie: Brisbane and Hawkeye
I had heard that the Brisbane joint ATP/WTA tournament had the equipment for electronic line calling in place this year, but chose not to operate it due to the costs involved. After Andy Roddick's rather verbal complaints about not being able to review calls and especially after the two very important questionable calls during the women's final, I predict that they will pay for the operation in 2011.
The two calls in the Clijsters-Henin match were Henin's ace while serving for the match, which was called out incorrectly, after which Justine double-faulted and eventually was broken. And then, up 6-5 in the tiebreak, Clijsters hit a backhand down the line that was initially called in, then corrected to be out. Unless Brisbane has line-calling in effect in 2011, I bet that the line-up will include significantly fewer stars. There's just no reason for these guys to play somewhere that the technology isn't being used, if they don't have to. And they don't!
The two calls in the Clijsters-Henin match were Henin's ace while serving for the match, which was called out incorrectly, after which Justine double-faulted and eventually was broken. And then, up 6-5 in the tiebreak, Clijsters hit a backhand down the line that was initially called in, then corrected to be out. Unless Brisbane has line-calling in effect in 2011, I bet that the line-up will include significantly fewer stars. There's just no reason for these guys to play somewhere that the technology isn't being used, if they don't have to. And they don't!
Noteworthy upsets and withdrawals plus Aussie Open quallies!
The second week of the season has featured a few surprising upsets and not-so-surprising withdrawals, but I'd imagine the tournament organizers were none too happy to see these players out of their tournaments before Wednesday.
Nalbandian withdrew from Auckland before playing his match against Kohlschreiber, which I think puts the Argentine in doubt for the Australian Open, since this would have been his only tune-up event. Gael Monfils also withdrew from Sydney, which is not so much of a surprise, considering how heavily he was taped last week in Brisbane. Vera Zvonerava also stopped her match against Elena Vesnina after only six games with an ankle injury. This is on top of Justine Henin and Roger Federer withdrawing from their events, earlier in the week.
In Sydney, Evgeny Korolev beat Sam Querrey in the first round, which will mean that the recently-injured American will be 0-2 going into the first grand slam of the year, which is certainly not the way he would have wanted to start out his year, I'm sure. The Bryan Brothers also lost to first time doubles pairing Wassen and Zeballos, which was definitely a shock. On the women's side, Dominika Cibulkova beat third-seeded (and ranked) Svetlana Kuznetsova, Aggi Szavay beat Jelena Jankovic, and Na Li beat fourth-seed Caroline Wozniacki, so the upset bug is all over.
It just goes to show that some of the top players have trouble finding their form at the very start of the season, which is why the Australian Open often has the most surprising winners and finalists of any of the grand slams.
With all these upsets and withdrawals, some players are getting an easy route through their tournaments. Serena Williams can't face another seed until the final, for example. Others are not so lucky. The bottom quarterfinal of the women's draw in Sydney will feature Elena Dementieva against Dinara Safina, which has the potential to be an exciting match, or at least a good bellwether of how these two players' years are starting.
In Kooyong, the organizers were apparently unable to woo either of the Andys into playing the full three days, so they ended up replacing Roger Federer with Ivan Ljubicic, who is a fine player, but probably not what they had hoped for this year. So the Kooyong matchups are Djokovic-Haas, Fernando-Fernando, Soderling-Tsonga, and Ljubicic-Del Potro. It will be interesting to see who out of that group of top players has started the year on form.
Looking to the Aussie Open qualifying draw, there are some very interesting first-round matches. The quallies are incredibly important to the players in them, because getting a few rounds in a grand slam is the best way to rack up a chunk of points for the following year, but you have to win these mini-tournaments to have a chance. Here's my list of significant match-ups:
Xavier Malisse-Alex Kuznetsov, Marc Lopez-Donald Young, Josselin Ouanna-Joseph Sirianni, Yuki Bhambri-Jan Minar, Ryler DeHeart-Stefan Koubek, Grigor Dimitrov-Robert Kendrick, and Peter Polansky-Marcel Ilhan. Sixteen out of these 128 players will get into the main draw, which is a tough cut. There are a ton of up-and-coming players here, as well as more establish challenger pros who are knocking at the door of the top 100. It should be fun to see who makes it through.
Nalbandian withdrew from Auckland before playing his match against Kohlschreiber, which I think puts the Argentine in doubt for the Australian Open, since this would have been his only tune-up event. Gael Monfils also withdrew from Sydney, which is not so much of a surprise, considering how heavily he was taped last week in Brisbane. Vera Zvonerava also stopped her match against Elena Vesnina after only six games with an ankle injury. This is on top of Justine Henin and Roger Federer withdrawing from their events, earlier in the week.
In Sydney, Evgeny Korolev beat Sam Querrey in the first round, which will mean that the recently-injured American will be 0-2 going into the first grand slam of the year, which is certainly not the way he would have wanted to start out his year, I'm sure. The Bryan Brothers also lost to first time doubles pairing Wassen and Zeballos, which was definitely a shock. On the women's side, Dominika Cibulkova beat third-seeded (and ranked) Svetlana Kuznetsova, Aggi Szavay beat Jelena Jankovic, and Na Li beat fourth-seed Caroline Wozniacki, so the upset bug is all over.
It just goes to show that some of the top players have trouble finding their form at the very start of the season, which is why the Australian Open often has the most surprising winners and finalists of any of the grand slams.
With all these upsets and withdrawals, some players are getting an easy route through their tournaments. Serena Williams can't face another seed until the final, for example. Others are not so lucky. The bottom quarterfinal of the women's draw in Sydney will feature Elena Dementieva against Dinara Safina, which has the potential to be an exciting match, or at least a good bellwether of how these two players' years are starting.
In Kooyong, the organizers were apparently unable to woo either of the Andys into playing the full three days, so they ended up replacing Roger Federer with Ivan Ljubicic, who is a fine player, but probably not what they had hoped for this year. So the Kooyong matchups are Djokovic-Haas, Fernando-Fernando, Soderling-Tsonga, and Ljubicic-Del Potro. It will be interesting to see who out of that group of top players has started the year on form.
Looking to the Aussie Open qualifying draw, there are some very interesting first-round matches. The quallies are incredibly important to the players in them, because getting a few rounds in a grand slam is the best way to rack up a chunk of points for the following year, but you have to win these mini-tournaments to have a chance. Here's my list of significant match-ups:
Xavier Malisse-Alex Kuznetsov, Marc Lopez-Donald Young, Josselin Ouanna-Joseph Sirianni, Yuki Bhambri-Jan Minar, Ryler DeHeart-Stefan Koubek, Grigor Dimitrov-Robert Kendrick, and Peter Polansky-Marcel Ilhan. Sixteen out of these 128 players will get into the main draw, which is a tough cut. There are a ton of up-and-coming players here, as well as more establish challenger pros who are knocking at the door of the top 100. It should be fun to see who makes it through.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Week 1 Champions and Week 2 Preview
The remaining two finals from the first week of the 2010 ATP season have been contested. In Chennai, defending champion Marin Cilic beat Stan Wawrinka in two tiebreak sets. It was a close match, and really In Brisbane, Andy Roddick beat defending champion Radek Stepanek in two tiebreaks. Really, there was very little to choose between these two players. Cilic served at 57%, Wawrinka at 59%. They both won 61% of their second-serve points. They both converted two break chances. The only difference, in the end, was that Cilic won 72% of points on first serve, while Wawrinka won only 62%. Still, a close match, and both players should be encouraged by their performance this week.
In Brisbane, the match between Roddick and Stepanek went to two tiebreaks as well, but the second-set was absolutely bizarre. Stepanek went away and Roddick went to a 5-1 lead thanks to a pair of double faults on break points by Radek, only to be broken twice while serving for the match. Roddick's play didn't drop a great deal (it did drop, though) but Stepanek raised his game and changed his strategy to frustrate and bamboozle Roddick.
In the tiebreak, Roddick made it to 6-2, and then lost five consecutive match points to get back to six-all. He had another match point at 8-7, when Stepanek put himself out of his misery and double-faulted again. This has to be disappointing for both players. Roddick has to be shaken that he couldn't close out after getting two huge leads, and Stepanek has to be upset that he couldn't take advantage of Roddick being off his game and clearly in a bad mental state. That said, a win is a win, and Roddick will be happy to lift his first trophy since early last year. Roddick now has the longest active streak of years with at least one tournament win.
Looking ahead to the second week of the season, it's a tale of two tiers. In Sydney and Auckland, which both hosted women's events last week, there are ATP tournaments which feature a good list of mid-range talents. But all of the top players are either taking the week off or playing in the Kooyong exhibition. No top ten player is in official action, this week.
Of course, that's not to say that there won't be some exciting tennis. In Sydney, Monfils, Wawrinka, Berdych, Hewitt and Querrey lead the field and are the favorites to make it deep into the tournament, but there are a handful of dangerous floaters in the draw. Mardy Fish opens against Carsten Ball, while Baghdatis starts against Nick Lindahl. Fish will have his hands full, but Baggy shouldn't have any trouble getting through his wildcard opponent. Chennai semifinalist Dudi Sela is also in the draw, as is Frenchman Richard Gasquet, who opens against Feliciano Lopez.
In Auckland, the top seed is Tommy Robredo, fresh off his Hopman Cup win, who is joined by three other Spaniards to make up the top four: Ferrer, Ferrero, and Almagro. The seeds also feature Monaco and Montanes, so you might be forgiven for thinking that this could be a claycourt tournament. It's a pretty wide open draw, and there's a chance for some lower-ranked players to make a deep run.
John Isner opens against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, which should be an interesting match-up. Isner will surely be hoping to start his year as well as he ended last year, and will be looking to forget his modest results at the Hopman Cup last week. Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli and Tomaz Bellucci face each other in the first round as well, for the privilege of facing the winner of the best first-round match-up of the week.
I'm speaking, of course, about David Nalbandian's return to competitive tennis, in which he faces German Phillip Kohlschreiber. It will be fascinating to see how Nalbandian is feeling. Has he recovered from his surgery? Has he worked on his fitness in the off-season? Will his unearthly timing and shotmaking have survived his long layoff? Only time will tell.
Kooyong is an interesting story this week. Federer opted not to play at the last minute, and it's still not clear who is going to take up that last spot. The other players in the field are Djokovic, Del Potro, Gonzalez, Tsonga, Soderling, Haas, and Verdasco. That's a strong field, no question. But it doesn't have Roddick, Murray, Nadal, Davydenko, or Federer. The draw won't be released until the 12th, so they'll have to fill in the last spot by then. I'm interested to see what the organizers do to deal with this unusual situation.
On the women's side, there's another sharp difference in the field between the two tournaments going on this week. Sydney features eight of the top nine players in the world, with only Venus Williams not present. In Hobart, on the other hand, the top seed is 27th-ranked Annabel Medina-Garrigues. Since the winner in Sydney takes home nearly $100K, while the Hobart champion gets only $37K, this may not be a surprise. But this also means that most people are going to be watching Sydney.
Play started earlier than I thought it would, and Russians Kuznetsova and Dementieva have already moved on to the second round. It's really tough to see anyone but the top seeds making it to the semis or final here, since the top of the field is just so tough. It will be interesting to watch Dinara Safina and see if she can recover from how dismally she finished up 2009, or if that was just the first step in a precipitous decline. I hope to see her bounce back and even break through to win a slam in 2010.
In Brisbane, the match between Roddick and Stepanek went to two tiebreaks as well, but the second-set was absolutely bizarre. Stepanek went away and Roddick went to a 5-1 lead thanks to a pair of double faults on break points by Radek, only to be broken twice while serving for the match. Roddick's play didn't drop a great deal (it did drop, though) but Stepanek raised his game and changed his strategy to frustrate and bamboozle Roddick.
In the tiebreak, Roddick made it to 6-2, and then lost five consecutive match points to get back to six-all. He had another match point at 8-7, when Stepanek put himself out of his misery and double-faulted again. This has to be disappointing for both players. Roddick has to be shaken that he couldn't close out after getting two huge leads, and Stepanek has to be upset that he couldn't take advantage of Roddick being off his game and clearly in a bad mental state. That said, a win is a win, and Roddick will be happy to lift his first trophy since early last year. Roddick now has the longest active streak of years with at least one tournament win.
Looking ahead to the second week of the season, it's a tale of two tiers. In Sydney and Auckland, which both hosted women's events last week, there are ATP tournaments which feature a good list of mid-range talents. But all of the top players are either taking the week off or playing in the Kooyong exhibition. No top ten player is in official action, this week.
Of course, that's not to say that there won't be some exciting tennis. In Sydney, Monfils, Wawrinka, Berdych, Hewitt and Querrey lead the field and are the favorites to make it deep into the tournament, but there are a handful of dangerous floaters in the draw. Mardy Fish opens against Carsten Ball, while Baghdatis starts against Nick Lindahl. Fish will have his hands full, but Baggy shouldn't have any trouble getting through his wildcard opponent. Chennai semifinalist Dudi Sela is also in the draw, as is Frenchman Richard Gasquet, who opens against Feliciano Lopez.
In Auckland, the top seed is Tommy Robredo, fresh off his Hopman Cup win, who is joined by three other Spaniards to make up the top four: Ferrer, Ferrero, and Almagro. The seeds also feature Monaco and Montanes, so you might be forgiven for thinking that this could be a claycourt tournament. It's a pretty wide open draw, and there's a chance for some lower-ranked players to make a deep run.
John Isner opens against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, which should be an interesting match-up. Isner will surely be hoping to start his year as well as he ended last year, and will be looking to forget his modest results at the Hopman Cup last week. Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli and Tomaz Bellucci face each other in the first round as well, for the privilege of facing the winner of the best first-round match-up of the week.
I'm speaking, of course, about David Nalbandian's return to competitive tennis, in which he faces German Phillip Kohlschreiber. It will be fascinating to see how Nalbandian is feeling. Has he recovered from his surgery? Has he worked on his fitness in the off-season? Will his unearthly timing and shotmaking have survived his long layoff? Only time will tell.
Kooyong is an interesting story this week. Federer opted not to play at the last minute, and it's still not clear who is going to take up that last spot. The other players in the field are Djokovic, Del Potro, Gonzalez, Tsonga, Soderling, Haas, and Verdasco. That's a strong field, no question. But it doesn't have Roddick, Murray, Nadal, Davydenko, or Federer. The draw won't be released until the 12th, so they'll have to fill in the last spot by then. I'm interested to see what the organizers do to deal with this unusual situation.
On the women's side, there's another sharp difference in the field between the two tournaments going on this week. Sydney features eight of the top nine players in the world, with only Venus Williams not present. In Hobart, on the other hand, the top seed is 27th-ranked Annabel Medina-Garrigues. Since the winner in Sydney takes home nearly $100K, while the Hobart champion gets only $37K, this may not be a surprise. But this also means that most people are going to be watching Sydney.
Play started earlier than I thought it would, and Russians Kuznetsova and Dementieva have already moved on to the second round. It's really tough to see anyone but the top seeds making it to the semis or final here, since the top of the field is just so tough. It will be interesting to watch Dinara Safina and see if she can recover from how dismally she finished up 2009, or if that was just the first step in a precipitous decline. I hope to see her bounce back and even break through to win a slam in 2010.
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