Saturday, June 19, 2010

Wimbledon Preview

I'll be quick to dispatch the finals from this week - I was right on two of them. Justine Henin and Michael Llodra each won, while Tipsarevic and Azarenka weren't so lucky. Still, props to every player who made the finals this week, which will hopefully help them build momentum on the way into the biggest tournament of the year.

Looking at the Wimbledon draw, I have to say - even though the players are mostly the same as were present at the French Open, this field seems to be packed with a lot more exciting match-ups. It could be because fewer players have as much trouble on grass as they do on clay, but it could just be that this is a more appetizing draw. I'll look at the draw in eight sections, rather than by quarter, because otherwise I'd be doing too much analysis in each batch.

Federer's section of the draw doesn't appear to be too problematic. He opens against Alejandro Falla, who is 0-4 against Federer, including two losses already this year and another loss at Wimbledon way back in 2004. That's a pretty safe first round. He'll probably get Nicolas Massu in the second, who has only beaten Federer once, and it was eight years ago. Things may get a bit more interesting in the third round, however. I expect that Tommy Robredo - the player that Federer is seeded to meet at that point - won't make it that far, because he has some tough opposition and has been struggling recently. In his place, Fed might find either Janko Tipsarevic or Arnaud Clement, two players who have played Federer tough in the past and who both love Wimbledon. I'd love to see a rematch of the Fed-Tipsy epic from the Australian Open in 2008, personally. In the round of 16, Federer's opponent will probably be either the grass-court-loving Spaniard Feliciano Lopez or French Open semifinalist Jurgen Melzer, but there's an outside chance that Carsten Ball could make a run. Also in this section, watch for Lithuanian teen Ricardas Bernankis, who won't make it far but should be fun to look for in the future. In the end, there's not a lot of people who could trouble Federer on his way to the quarters, and I see him getting through.

Luckily for Federer, the other top 8 seed in his quarter is Nikolay Davydenko, who both hates playing on grass at Wimbledon and has just come off an injury. It will be quite a feat for him to make it deep in this tournament. He opens against the big, 6'8" South African Kevin Anderson, and that may be all she wrote for Davydenko. Even if he gets past Anderson, he'll face big-hitting countryman Igor Andreev. The other seed that Davydenko would run into first is another player who doesn't love grass courts, Victor Hanescu. While neither of them may make it to the quarters or even the round of 16, the opponent they would find there will be a tough one. That section of the draw has Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka as the top seeds, which is a tough pairing. Their section also has Rainer Schuettler and Benjamin Becker, so whoever comes through there will probably find themselves facing Federer in the quarters. I give Berdych a chance at beating Fed there, but he's the only guy with a real shot.

Novak Djokovic, the third seed, doesn't really have his own quarter. He's found himself in Andy Roddick's quarter. But he still has his own section, and it's a brutal one. He opens against Olivier Rochus, who beat him earlier in the year, and then will probably get Taylor Dent in the second round. Dent loves the grass court season, and he'll be a tough opponent for Novak. Djokovic could get a break in the third round, because Albert Montanes does not love the grass courts at Wimbledon, but in the fourth round, he'll probably get either Lleyton Hewitt or Gael Monfils, and that's just brutal. It's tough to see Djokovic making it out of that section of the draw - in fact, I'd put Hewitt as the favorite to reach the quarterfinals, especially considering his recent win over Federer.

And they're all playing for the chance to - in all likelihood - face last year's finalist Andy Roddick. Roddick could face some stern opposition, but this is - after the U.S. Open - the American's backyard, and grass is - as coach Stefanki said - his "bread and butter." After an essentially inconsequential opening round against Rajeev Ram, Roddick could get recent Eastbourne titlist Michael Llodra in the second round. I think the fact that Llodra is thirty and just won a title a few days ago will make it tough for him to bounce back and face the big-serving American. After that, Roddick will probably get either Kohlschreiber, who beat him at the Australian Open in 2007, or Gabashvili, who just beat him at the French. But I think Roddick is the better player on this surface, and should actually be motivated because he knows these are dangerous guys. He's much more in danger of falling to somebody coming out of nowhere, in my opinion. In the round of sixteen, there are a couple people he could face - Marin Cilic is the seeded player, and Cilic beat an injured Roddick at the Aussie Open this year. But he has to get past Mardy Fish, who has been playing good tennis in recent weeks. The other player to watch here is Ljubicic, who beat Roddick earlier in the year as well, but has been struggling with injury. As a final note, Fish opens against Bernard Tomic, who has a great future ahead of him, but this isn't his tournament.

With all that said, I see Roddick making it through to a rematch with Federer in the semis. Which is what everyone wants anyway.

Moving along to the bottom half of the draw, Fernando Verdasco has his own section as the eighth seed, and while he has a good draw through to the round of sixteen, it does get a lot tougher. He opens against Italian Fabio Fognini and then might get American Michael Russel. His third round opponent could be 32nd seed Julien Benneteau, or one of three other not terribly dangerous opponents. But in the fourth round, he's likely to meet either tenth seed JW Tsonga or big-hitting Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, both of whom represent a dramatic rise in the quality of opponent he would be facing. There's also an outside chance he could meet slumping Swiss #3 Marco Chiudinelli, if he goes on a tear. I think that Verdasco, Tsonga, and Almagro are just about all equally likely to make it out of this section of the draw and into the quarters.

Once they get there, they're almost certain to face Andy Murray. While Roddick may have treated Wimbledon as his own backyard, it really and truly is for Murray. He'll need the support of his countrymen to turn his year around, as he's entering the tournament this year with a significantly worse record than he was last year at this point. While his draw is by no means easy, it could have been a lot worse. He'll probably get Finnish player Jarkko Nieminen in the second round, followed by Frenchman Gilles Simon. Both players are runners and returners, so they play the same style as Murray, just not as well. In his round of 16 match, on the other hand, he might find himself facing Sam Querrey, which is a very different sort of game. If Querrey can get through his first round against Unicef Open titlist Stakhovsky, then I expect that he'll get through his second round opponent and Juan Carlos Ferrero for a meeting with Andy Murray. That should be fun to watch - Querrey just won at Queen's and is desperate for a deep run at a major. This is a good chance for him, but he'll need Murray to be troubled by the pressure.

Even if Murray makes it by Querrey and finds Tsonga, Verdasco, or Almagro in the quarters, they're exactly the sort of player that gives Murray trouble. It would be a tough one for him to get through. It's by no means a guarantee that he'll equal his run to the semifinals from last year.

The final quarter of the draw is pretty much mouth-watering, I have to say. It's a brutal, brutal section. First, Robin Soderling is the sixth seed. He opens against resurgent Robbie Ginepri, and could get Tomaz Bellucci in the third round, after Portuguese Frederico Gil. In the fourth round, he could get Marcos Baghdatis, Jeremy Chardy, David Ferrer, or wildcard Nicolas Kiefer, all tough opponents on this surface. But I think that Soderling should make it through - it does work to his disadvantage that he made the final at the French Open, because he withdrew from any of the grass court warm-up events in the intervening weeks, and he'll need to adjust quickly to the change in the surface.

The bottom part of this quarter belongs to Rafael Nadal, and even though he's considering one of the top two favorites to win the tournament, he'll have to get through an absolutely devastating field to do it. I don't know the last time I saw a player with this cruel a draw. He opens against Kei Nishikori, who hasn't done much this year but is a player with a ton of potential. After that, he could get recently-recovered James Blake, a big-hitting player who's beaten Nadal in a Grand Slam match before. And then maybe Ernests Gulbis, who nearly beat him on clay earlier in the year. And then maybe Isner, who should love the way the grass responds to his serve or Mikhail Youzhny, who beat Nadal at the U.S. Open in 2006. That is an unbelievably tough draw - if those are the players he has to face, followed by Soderling (who can forget their Wimbledon match from a few years ago?), Murray, and Federer/Roddick, then I think I can say that it would be the toughest road to a title that we've seen in a long time.

While there are some really thrilling matches promised down the road, there are also some really fascinating opening rounds, and quite a few feature relatively high seeds that I would say could be in danger. There's also quite a few young, unproven players who have a chance to make some noise. It's worth noting that only three players have made the Wimbledon final since 2004: Nadal, Federer, and Roddick. Also, the last three finals have all been five sets, which I believe is the first time that has happened since 1970-72. It would be great to be able to keep up that level of excitement, but it's still two weeks away. I can't wait!

I'll take a (briefer) look at women's draw tomorrow.

Week 24 Finals

The finals for the last tournament before Wimbledon have been set, and to be honest, they're not really that exciting. The players who wanted to get ready for Wimbledon seem to have already left - the four players remaining in Eastbourne and the Netherlands are not what you would call favorites at next week's grand slam, though they are interesting matches, in their own way.

In s'Hertogenbosch, Sergiy Stakhovsky beat Xavier Malisse for a spot in the final, where he'll face Serbian Janko Tipsarevic, after he got a hard-fought win over Benjamin Becker in the semis. Stakhovsky has won two titles already in his career, and despite that Tipsarevic is the more accomplished player generally, he has yet to win his maiden title. It would be a huge win for Janko, and I have to admit I hope he gets it. He's one of my favorite players to watch, when he's on his game, and it's surprising to me that he hasn't been able to put an entire good week together to win a tournament. Stakhovsky won their only meeting at the tour-level, but Tipsarevic beat the Ukrainian, more recently, in the final of a challenger event. It should be an interesting match.

In Eastbourne, Spaniard Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who has a 14-11 match record on grass heading into this tournament, faces former champion Michael Llodra. It's been qutie a run for Garcia-Lopez, who is definitely a clay-court player, while Llodra has done well on grass in the past. I have to think that this is Llodra's match to win or lose. His style of play is much better situated to the conditions on court.

On the women's side, the two likely winners in the finals are facing relatively mid-level competition. Victoria Azarenka, who has not had a great year, notched up some pretty good wins - Radwanska, Clijsters, and Bartoli - on her way to the final, where she faces the Ekaterina Makarova, who is like Tipsarevic in that she is aiming for her first title. I expect Azarenka to take the title, though, as she is definitely the more accomplished player, recent form notwithstanding.

The other final may prove to be similarly one-sided. Justine Henin has not even dropped a set or been taken to a tiebreak by any of her opponents thus far, and even though Petkovic is her sternest challenge yet, it would be a surprise to me if Justine could lose this match. The bigger worry is getting to London and getting adjusted to Wimbledon in time for her opening round match, at this point. We'll see how that goes.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Week 24 Quarterfinals

The seeds have not fared particularly well, through the middle of the week in the two grass-court tournaments taking place. At the Unicef Open in the Netherlands, only two of the starting eight seeds are remaining: Boris Becker and Janko Tipsarevic. Now that's something of an unexpected pairing to be remaining, out of the seeds that started the tournament. They're join in the last eight by a bunch of middle-of-the-pack tour veterans, as well as Belgian Xavier Malisse, who is trying to work on his career resurgence. I have to think that Malisse are Becker are the favorites to meet in the final, at this point, but since any player who makes a deep run this week will be at a disadvantage going into Wimbledon, it's hard to predict what's going to happen.

In Eastbourne, the seeds have fared moderately better. While top seeds Lopez and Almagro are out, the only other seed to lose thus far is clay-court specialist Horacio Zeballos. Frenchman Gilles Simon has had to fight through some tough matches to get to the quarterfinals, playing three tiebreaks in six sets, but it's good to get some match practice after missing most of the year with injury. The other exciting story is British wildcard James Ward, who has beaten two players with a history of grass-court accomplishment: Feliciano Lopez and Rainer Schuettler. Here's hoping he can win another couple matches this week. It's good for the hometown crowds.

On the women's side, there are some interesting match-ups on the way. Kim Clijsters is playing Victoria Azarenka, which is a pretty appetizing quarterfinal match-up, I have to say. The other top players remaining in Eastbourne are Stosur, Kuznetsova, and Bartoli. Pretty good draw to make it that far. In the Netherlands, on the other hand, Justine Henin is still pretty much the only force left in the draw. It'll be a disappointment if she doesn't make it through the draw - unless, of course, she wants to rest up a few more days before Wimbledon.

The Wimbledon qualifying tournament has gotten to the final round, with a couple really surprising upsets. Americans Donald Young and Ryan Harrison, who I thought really should made it to the main draw, toppled early. Josselin Ouanna also lost, which was a disappointment for me, since he's fun to watch. The most exciting - and gut-wrenching - match thus far was Nicolas Mahut over British Alex Bogdanovic, 24-22 in the third set. Oof, that lack of a last-set tiebreaker is a killer. Mahut's reward is former Grand Slam quarterfinalist Stefan Koubek.

Other interesting match-ups for the chance at entry into the main draw are Go Soeda against Jesse Witten, as well as another pair of Americans, Robert Kendrick against Ryan Sweeting. Bernard Tomic plays Prakash Amritaj, which is another interesting pairing. And my favorite pairing is Gilles Muller against Carsten Ball, who should adapt well to the grass, with the way he plays. I also hope that top seeded Taylor Dent makes it through, because he should love the surface, with his serve-and-volley style of play.

Monday, June 14, 2010

Week 23 Wrap-up and Week 24 Preview

Well, that was a surprise. The two finals which took place yesterday ended up going exactly the opposite way I would have expected. The match between Fish and Querrey, while a fairly tight match, ended up with a convincing win for Querrey, while Federer somehow managed to lose to Hewitt in a tough three-setter.

The match between Fish and Querrey was dominated by serve, but it looked like the veteran had the stronger start. He started the match with 0-40 in Querrey's first service game. Unfortunately, after Querrey served his way out of that problem, then Fish didn't get another break point chance. The set went to a tiebreak, where Sam dominated. In the second set, Fish looked like he might turn the match around. He broke Querrey and served for the set at 5-4, but unfortunately couldn't keep it together and lost the next three games.

This is about par for both players, as Fish drops to a miserable 3-11 in tournament finals, while Querrey wins his third title of the year, and on three different surfaces no less. Unfortunately, Querrey doesn't have a lot to gain, ranking-wise, from winning more of these 250-level tournaments. He needs to make some noise at the masters and grand slams in order to move any further up the rankings. Fish, on the other hand, gained a great deal from his final appearance, and while he's only up to 70 in the world, that is an increase of 20 places from where he was last week. A good result from both players.

The Federer-Hewitt match, on the other hand, was somewhat bizarre. Federer looked to be cruising, up a set, and having come back from a break down already in the second, he had break points on Hewitt's serve at 4-all, which would have essentially sealed the deal. But after Hewitt saved those, he somehow managed to pull out the tiebreak and then break Federer at the start of the third set. At that point, Federer's game started getting sloppy, as he began hitting more errors and outright shanking a few balls. Hewitt held serve through to the end, and notched his first win against Federer in his last 15 tries, and Federer got only his second loss on grass in his last 77 matches on the surface. Really stunning stuff, and it's tough to imagine that Federer is going to be very confident heading into Wimbledon, considering that he hasn't won a title this year since the Australian Open.

Looking ahead to the two tournaments on offer this week - the week before a slam is always interesting, because the top players generally take the week off to rest up for the coming tournament, but the players who are just outside the top 100 need to qualifying to get into the slam, so you get a bunch of players mostly outside the top 20 but inside the top 100 competing. It can lead to some interesting match-ups.

This is particularly true due to several players who are coming off long lay-offs to resume play this week. In Eastbourne, James Blake opens against Julien Benneteau and Gilles Simon opens against Evgeny Korolev. Also look for the opening-round match between qualifiers Nishikori and Kuznetsov, who could get Simon in the second round. Almagro is the top seed here, and he should do well, despite having an atrocious 3-6 career record on grass. Also be on the lookout for Dudi Sela and Feliciano Lopez, who had big wins last week at Queens.

Also in Eastbourne, Kim Clijsters is back in action, as well as Caroline Wozniacki, French Open champ Francesca Schiavone, Li Na - who had a great win yesterday over Maria Sharapova in the final at Birmingham - and even slumping Svetlana Kuznetsova got a wildcard into the tourney. In one of the best opening rounds, Sam Stosur opens against Melanie Oudin, who's having a bit of a sophomore slump this year. That's a pretty impressive draw, I have to say. The top eight seeds are from the top 12 players in the world! After how barren last week's draw was, that is amazing.

The other tournament going on this week is in s'Hertogenbosch, in the Netherlands, but I'm just going to refer to it as the Unicef Open in the tags, because I'll never spell that right again. The draw here isn't quite as stacked on either side, but it still has some great players. Ljubicic is the top seed on the men's side, and he'll have to watch out for Marcos Baghdatis and Tommy Robredo. Chardy and Clement are floating there in the draw, as are Malisse and Becker. It could develop into a good tournament too, depending on how the first couple rounds go.

On the women's side, it's all about one person: top seeded Justine Henin, who is aching to win Wimbledon this year and needs this warm-up tournament to get her into a grass-court mentality. She shouldn't have too much trouble with this event, though, as second seeded Dinara Safina has - regrettably - already lost in the first round. Other than that, Ivanovic is in the dra, and a lot of very strong but not especially accomplished players. Henin couldn't have asked for much more to get her in the right frame of mind for a big run at Wimbledon.

In a day or two, I'll take a look at the qualifying draws for Wimbledon, which have some exciting match-ups of their own. Enjoy the tennis!

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Week 23 Final

For an off-week, the pair of finals that we have on offer tomorrow promise some fairly exciting tennis. In a stacked field at Queen's club, the surprising All-American final features Sam Querrey against Mardy Fish. It should be a good match, as both are big servers and competent volleyers. On the one hand, I hope that Fish comes out on top - Querrey already has a couple of titles this year, and doesn't stand to gain that much (in terms of ranking) if he lifts the trophy. Fish, on the other hand, could go up about 40 places next week.

The other final has the bigger names, but the conclusion is probably already decided. Hewitt has lost the last 15 against Federer, and Federer hasn't lost in Halle in more than half a decade. It should be a fun match, but it's hard to imagine Rusty pulling out a victory.

There's not much else to say about these match-ups, I'm sorry to say. They should feature some fun tennis, but they don't have a lot of resonance for the bigger picture of the tennis season. I'll still be watching, though!