Well, the upset bug continues as we've taken the tennis action across the country. In the first day of second round action, which is the first match for the men's seeds, a full third of the seeded players lost. Some of these wins were not all that surprising, as number 30 Viktor Troicki losing to wildcard David Nalbandian, but some were absolute shockers, as number 2 Novak Djokovic losing the shortest player in the top 100, 29-year old Olivier Rochus from Belgium.
Thirty-second seed Julien Benneteau also lost to Sergiy Stakhovsky, but that's not too much of an upset, as he was the second-lowest-ranked seed. Last week's champion, Ivan Ljubicic, was forced to retire in his match against Benjamin Becker, even though he was up a set and a game. Well, it looks like the Croat was feeling his 31 years again, after the thrill of winning last week's title wore off.
The last seeded player to be upset was one of many American players to put in an absolutely dismal showing at the last American hardcourt tournament of the season. Sam Querrey lost to Frenchman Jeremy Chardy after winning the first set. In addition to Querrey, Blake lost to Tomaz Bellucci, also after being up a set. Taylor Dent lost to Nadal, but that's not really that surprising a result. And Melanie Oudin was demolished by Vera Zvonareva 6-1, 6-2.
The only Americans who managed their way to victories were Andy Roddick, who beat Igor Andreev in a routine match, and John Isner, who happened to be playing in a match where it was guaranteed an American would win, as he was facing Michael Russel. He was actually outplayed by Russel and won 14 fewer points over the course of the three set match, but he still managed to win two tiebreaks. Credit Isner as the only American who could find a way to win on a day where conditions were tough and the fans must have been little help. With so many rain delays and crappy weather, anyone who was expecting an excited crowd was disappointed.
It's a shame, because for most of these players, this is their best surface, and this was their best chance for a good result until the middle of the summer. One of the good things about the upset bug that was going around the grounds is that it was Andy Roddick's (formerly Novak Djokovic's) quarter of the draw that was decimated, giving Roddick another good chance at a deep run.
There are some good matches tomorrow, and a few more chances to continue the unbelievable run of upsets that has been the order of the day for the past few weeks. Andy Murray plays Mardy Fish, and it will be interesting to if the upset bug or the American failure bug is more at play in that match. Verdasco has been on a pretty poor run since his hard-court title last month, and he plays another small firecracker like Rochus, Israel's Dudi Sela.
The top seeds are also in action. Svetlana Kuznetsova, who barely survived her first match, plays 27th seed Agnes Szavay of Hungary. Look for a potential upset, there. Roger Federer plays lucky loser Nicolas Lapentti, but don't be on the lookout for that match to end in an upset. It's also interesting to note that Rafael Nadal teams up with a partner I've never seen before to play the Bryan Brothers in doubles tomorrow. They lost in their first outing in Indian Wells, so they're hoping to make a better run at this tournament.
Two possible upsets tomorrow feature recently underachieving seeds taking on a couple of young guns, as Gilles Simon takes on Horacio Zeballos and Tomas Berdych takes on Thiemo De Bakker. Outside chance of an upset in either match. Also watch out for Kevin Anderson taking on Stan Wawrinka, Michael Berrer against Feliciano Lopez, and an extremely low possibility for Australian veteran Peter Luczak to upset Robin Soderling.
It almost seems impossible for this tournament to be as crazy as last week in Indian Wells, but we're off to a good start.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Miami Preview
I know that action has already started in Miami, but none of the seeds have played yet, so we'll take a look at their placement in the draw. Even if the last Masters Series event ended in a huge surprise, but the winner was still seeded.
Federer, in his loss to Marcos Baghdatis at Indian Wells, didn't give the Cypriot much credit. Baggy ended up in the Swiss's quarter once again, so he may get a chance at a rematch. But there are some other players there for Federer to worry about. It's unlikely that Federer will be challenged until the fourth round, where he may face either Gilles Simon or Tomas Berdych. His quartefinal opponent may be Baghdatis, Verdasco, or Cilic. All of these guys are dangerous players on hard courts, and if Federer isn't quite as motivated to play at these Masters Series events as he once was, anyone could play a great match and score an upset. Or he may want to forget about what happened in Miami as quickly as possible and steamroll his way to the semis. Also possible.
Andy Murray's quarter is opposite Federer's and it doesn't look much easier. Murray could get Fish in the second round, then Feliciano Lopez in the third. After that, he may get Wawrinka or Youzhny. That's a damn tough eighth of the draw to find yourself in. And if he makes it through all that to reach the quarters, he'll likely either get a rematch with Robin Soderling, or he'll play big-hitting Fernando Gonzalez. Janko Tipsarevic, who beat Murray in Dubai, is also here, but I don't see him getting another shot at Murray. That's a tough road to the semis, only to possibly find Federer there.
I think the reason that all of the top seeds got relatively difficult draws is in part because of the depth of men's tennis, but also because a lot of really top-notch players are currently underranked, and can end up anywhere in a draw like this. Nadal opens against Taylor Dent and could get David Nalbandian in the third round, as an example of just how far some players are underranked. After that, he may get either David Ferrer or Ivo Karlovic - just about as different as two playing styles can get, so that's tough to get ready for, when you're thinking ahead. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be one of two players - it could JW Tsonga or big-hitting American John Isner. Isner was lucky to find himself in Tsonga's section, as the Frenchman has trouble dealing with the really big servers.
The final quarter of the draw is Djokovic's, and while I was hoping for the Djoker to find Richard Gasquet in the second round, Olivier Rochus spoiled that. I thought that he may get James Blake in the third round as well, but Blake has his hands full with Serbian teenager Filip Krajinovic. There are still plenty of tough players in his little section, though. Sam Querrey and Nicolas Almagro can both hit anyone off the court on the right day, and Djokovic's seeded third-round opponent, Tomaz Bellucci, is still looking for his breakthrough win. If Djokovic got the rest he needed in the past week, he should make it through, but otherwise, who knows?
Djokovic's quarterfinal opponent is seeded to be Andy Roddick, last week's losing finalist. The good news for Andy is that there's only one player in his 1/8 of the draw that should really threaten him. The bad news is that player is last week's titlist, Ivan Ljubicic. But keep in mind that Ljubicic just turned 31, so it may be tough for him to keep up such a fantastic run of form for another week and a half. Roddick will I'm sure be hoping that Tommy Robredo upsets Ljubicic in order to get another drubbing from Roddick in the round of sixteen.
In the last tournament, upsets were the order of the day. Will the top players restore order here in Miami, or will we have another surprise set of finalists?
Federer, in his loss to Marcos Baghdatis at Indian Wells, didn't give the Cypriot much credit. Baggy ended up in the Swiss's quarter once again, so he may get a chance at a rematch. But there are some other players there for Federer to worry about. It's unlikely that Federer will be challenged until the fourth round, where he may face either Gilles Simon or Tomas Berdych. His quartefinal opponent may be Baghdatis, Verdasco, or Cilic. All of these guys are dangerous players on hard courts, and if Federer isn't quite as motivated to play at these Masters Series events as he once was, anyone could play a great match and score an upset. Or he may want to forget about what happened in Miami as quickly as possible and steamroll his way to the semis. Also possible.
Andy Murray's quarter is opposite Federer's and it doesn't look much easier. Murray could get Fish in the second round, then Feliciano Lopez in the third. After that, he may get Wawrinka or Youzhny. That's a damn tough eighth of the draw to find yourself in. And if he makes it through all that to reach the quarters, he'll likely either get a rematch with Robin Soderling, or he'll play big-hitting Fernando Gonzalez. Janko Tipsarevic, who beat Murray in Dubai, is also here, but I don't see him getting another shot at Murray. That's a tough road to the semis, only to possibly find Federer there.
I think the reason that all of the top seeds got relatively difficult draws is in part because of the depth of men's tennis, but also because a lot of really top-notch players are currently underranked, and can end up anywhere in a draw like this. Nadal opens against Taylor Dent and could get David Nalbandian in the third round, as an example of just how far some players are underranked. After that, he may get either David Ferrer or Ivo Karlovic - just about as different as two playing styles can get, so that's tough to get ready for, when you're thinking ahead. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be one of two players - it could JW Tsonga or big-hitting American John Isner. Isner was lucky to find himself in Tsonga's section, as the Frenchman has trouble dealing with the really big servers.
The final quarter of the draw is Djokovic's, and while I was hoping for the Djoker to find Richard Gasquet in the second round, Olivier Rochus spoiled that. I thought that he may get James Blake in the third round as well, but Blake has his hands full with Serbian teenager Filip Krajinovic. There are still plenty of tough players in his little section, though. Sam Querrey and Nicolas Almagro can both hit anyone off the court on the right day, and Djokovic's seeded third-round opponent, Tomaz Bellucci, is still looking for his breakthrough win. If Djokovic got the rest he needed in the past week, he should make it through, but otherwise, who knows?
Djokovic's quarterfinal opponent is seeded to be Andy Roddick, last week's losing finalist. The good news for Andy is that there's only one player in his 1/8 of the draw that should really threaten him. The bad news is that player is last week's titlist, Ivan Ljubicic. But keep in mind that Ljubicic just turned 31, so it may be tough for him to keep up such a fantastic run of form for another week and a half. Roddick will I'm sure be hoping that Tommy Robredo upsets Ljubicic in order to get another drubbing from Roddick in the round of sixteen.
In the last tournament, upsets were the order of the day. Will the top players restore order here in Miami, or will we have another surprise set of finalists?
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Indian Wells Wrap-up
The stream of upsets that was going on all week in Indian Wells continued on finals day. Both the men's and women's finals ended in upsets, with two former top players who everybody had written-off as not having any real chance lately upsetting two players who were really supposed to get back to the top, now that their top competition was gone.
The women's final ended as Jelena Jankovic, the last big thing, beat the next big thing, Caroline Wozniacki. Jankovic hadn't won a big title in quite some time and hadn't been playing that great, so this was a surprising run for her. On the other hand, everyone expected Wozniacki to win this tournament, after the other top contenders dropped in early rounds. Well done for Jankovic, who may be ready for a return to form. The upset on the men's side was even more surprising, though.
Ivan Ljubicic, in his fourth appearance in a Master's series final, won his first title. He beat Andy Roddick, who had a cupcake draw to get to the final, while the Croatian had to beat Djokovic and Nadal to make it there. In a happy birthday to the recently-turned 31-year old, Ljubicic played great, and while he may have been just ever-so-slightly outplayed by Roddick from the ground throughout much of the match, it didn't matter when it came down to tiebreaks, and the match did. Roddick went down 0-40 in his first service game, but didn't face a break point for the rest of the match. Ljubicic faced 3 break points in the first set and 3 in the second, but it didn't matter. Nobody could convert.
During the tiebreaks, Roddick made a few more mistakes and couldn't serve as solidly as Ljubicic. While the American was leading the tour in tiebreakers won coming in to this tournament, he couldn't win either in the final, and Ljubicic went home with his maiden master's series title. Credit to the Croatian, who did something that absolutely no one gave him a chance to do at this point in his career. Literally, I don't see a single draw out of 17,000 on the ATP World Draw Challenge Circuit that picked Ljubicic to win it all.
But on the other hand, it's really a missed opportunity for Roddick, who may win another Master's Series shield in his career, but he will never get an easier chance than this one. His draw broke in every way he could have preferred, but he still couldn't seal the deal. I hope that the American closely examines the match to see if he was happy with his game. I'm not sure if he could have played differently in terms of strategy - it was just in the execution. He was out-aced by Ljubicic and basically outplayed in both tiebreaks. He may have just been tight, while the elder Croat could swing freely.
In any case, it'll be interesting to see how both do this coming week in Miami. The draw's out now, and I'll do an analysis tomorrow.
The women's final ended as Jelena Jankovic, the last big thing, beat the next big thing, Caroline Wozniacki. Jankovic hadn't won a big title in quite some time and hadn't been playing that great, so this was a surprising run for her. On the other hand, everyone expected Wozniacki to win this tournament, after the other top contenders dropped in early rounds. Well done for Jankovic, who may be ready for a return to form. The upset on the men's side was even more surprising, though.
Ivan Ljubicic, in his fourth appearance in a Master's series final, won his first title. He beat Andy Roddick, who had a cupcake draw to get to the final, while the Croatian had to beat Djokovic and Nadal to make it there. In a happy birthday to the recently-turned 31-year old, Ljubicic played great, and while he may have been just ever-so-slightly outplayed by Roddick from the ground throughout much of the match, it didn't matter when it came down to tiebreaks, and the match did. Roddick went down 0-40 in his first service game, but didn't face a break point for the rest of the match. Ljubicic faced 3 break points in the first set and 3 in the second, but it didn't matter. Nobody could convert.
During the tiebreaks, Roddick made a few more mistakes and couldn't serve as solidly as Ljubicic. While the American was leading the tour in tiebreakers won coming in to this tournament, he couldn't win either in the final, and Ljubicic went home with his maiden master's series title. Credit to the Croatian, who did something that absolutely no one gave him a chance to do at this point in his career. Literally, I don't see a single draw out of 17,000 on the ATP World Draw Challenge Circuit that picked Ljubicic to win it all.
But on the other hand, it's really a missed opportunity for Roddick, who may win another Master's Series shield in his career, but he will never get an easier chance than this one. His draw broke in every way he could have preferred, but he still couldn't seal the deal. I hope that the American closely examines the match to see if he was happy with his game. I'm not sure if he could have played differently in terms of strategy - it was just in the execution. He was out-aced by Ljubicic and basically outplayed in both tiebreaks. He may have just been tight, while the elder Croat could swing freely.
In any case, it'll be interesting to see how both do this coming week in Miami. The draw's out now, and I'll do an analysis tomorrow.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Indian Wells Final
Two upsets in the men's semifinals today! In fact, all four matches that were played today ended in upsets.
In the women's doubles final, Peschke and Srebotnik defeated the last seeds remaining, as they beat Petrova and Stosur in a match tiebreak. Good win for the Russian (I believe) pair, since I'm sure that nobody picked them to be holding the trophy today.
In the men's doubles final, another unseeded pair beat the last seeds still standing, but it was even more surprising. A wildcard team beat top seeds and top-ranked Nestor and Zimonjic. But of course, that can happen when half of that team is Rafael Nadal. And especially when Nadal is frustrated from just losing in the semifinals a few hours before. It's some comfort to take home the doubles title, at least, but I'm sure he would have rather defended his singles title.
Instead, he was beat in three sets by Ivan Ljubicic. Nadal looked to be in control, up a set and not giving Ljubicic a chance. At that point, he dropped serve out of nowhere and the Croat took advantage, winning the second set. The third set went to a tiebreak, eventually, even though Nadal had to claw his way back from a break down. The tiebreak was all Ljubicic, though, and the tall, big-serving former world-number three is into the final, after just celebrating his 31st birthday yesterday. A great week for him, but he has played some tough players when they were not at their best - wins over Djokovic and Nadal are always to be treasured, but particularly today, he didn't win thanks to his stellar play alone.
Of course, his opponent in the final, which turned out to be Andy Roddick, had an even easier road. He didn't really play anyone of consequence until the semis, where he faced a red-hot Robin Soderling. This was also not the greatest match, with neither player seemingly able to take the initiative. Roddick was up a set and a break before he gave it back, and he was up a break in the third set early on before giving it back again. It looked like Soderling couldn't lose the match if he tried, until he was broken once more and Roddick served it out. Third time's a charm, huh?
Roddick will face Ljubicic, and this really caps a week where everything that could have broken his way did so. Any opponent who looked like they might trouble him was taken out of commission by another, less threatening opponent. Soderling was the only opponent that Roddick has been generally troubled with in the past, and he did't show up with his best stuff. Roddick now takes a 7-3 advantage against Ljubicic into the final, as well as 4-3 record in MS finals compared to Ljube's 0-3.
Really, Roddick is never going to get a chance this good to win a Master's Series title ever again. It is basically a statistical impossibility. So many things have gone the way Roddick would have had them go, that if he doesn't win tomorrow, then there are no more Master's Series shields in the future for him. But if he does win tomorrow, this could be a good dose of momentum.
Every stat for this final is in Roddick's favor. The head-to-head, the record in finals, the performance so far this year, and this is not to mention the intangibles. As an American - the lone American at the top tier of the game - he will have the crowd's support against a relatively unknown and not particularly charismatic Ljubicic. If Roddick was playing Nadal, the Spaniard may have just as many - if not more - fans, but the Croatian contingent is going to be tough to make out in the crowd of red, white, and blue.
In the women's doubles final, Peschke and Srebotnik defeated the last seeds remaining, as they beat Petrova and Stosur in a match tiebreak. Good win for the Russian (I believe) pair, since I'm sure that nobody picked them to be holding the trophy today.
In the men's doubles final, another unseeded pair beat the last seeds still standing, but it was even more surprising. A wildcard team beat top seeds and top-ranked Nestor and Zimonjic. But of course, that can happen when half of that team is Rafael Nadal. And especially when Nadal is frustrated from just losing in the semifinals a few hours before. It's some comfort to take home the doubles title, at least, but I'm sure he would have rather defended his singles title.
Instead, he was beat in three sets by Ivan Ljubicic. Nadal looked to be in control, up a set and not giving Ljubicic a chance. At that point, he dropped serve out of nowhere and the Croat took advantage, winning the second set. The third set went to a tiebreak, eventually, even though Nadal had to claw his way back from a break down. The tiebreak was all Ljubicic, though, and the tall, big-serving former world-number three is into the final, after just celebrating his 31st birthday yesterday. A great week for him, but he has played some tough players when they were not at their best - wins over Djokovic and Nadal are always to be treasured, but particularly today, he didn't win thanks to his stellar play alone.
Of course, his opponent in the final, which turned out to be Andy Roddick, had an even easier road. He didn't really play anyone of consequence until the semis, where he faced a red-hot Robin Soderling. This was also not the greatest match, with neither player seemingly able to take the initiative. Roddick was up a set and a break before he gave it back, and he was up a break in the third set early on before giving it back again. It looked like Soderling couldn't lose the match if he tried, until he was broken once more and Roddick served it out. Third time's a charm, huh?
Roddick will face Ljubicic, and this really caps a week where everything that could have broken his way did so. Any opponent who looked like they might trouble him was taken out of commission by another, less threatening opponent. Soderling was the only opponent that Roddick has been generally troubled with in the past, and he did't show up with his best stuff. Roddick now takes a 7-3 advantage against Ljubicic into the final, as well as 4-3 record in MS finals compared to Ljube's 0-3.
Really, Roddick is never going to get a chance this good to win a Master's Series title ever again. It is basically a statistical impossibility. So many things have gone the way Roddick would have had them go, that if he doesn't win tomorrow, then there are no more Master's Series shields in the future for him. But if he does win tomorrow, this could be a good dose of momentum.
Every stat for this final is in Roddick's favor. The head-to-head, the record in finals, the performance so far this year, and this is not to mention the intangibles. As an American - the lone American at the top tier of the game - he will have the crowd's support against a relatively unknown and not particularly charismatic Ljubicic. If Roddick was playing Nadal, the Spaniard may have just as many - if not more - fans, but the Croatian contingent is going to be tough to make out in the crowd of red, white, and blue.
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