Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Miami Preview

I know that action has already started in Miami, but none of the seeds have played yet, so we'll take a look at their placement in the draw. Even if the last Masters Series event ended in a huge surprise, but the winner was still seeded.

Federer, in his loss to Marcos Baghdatis at Indian Wells, didn't give the Cypriot much credit. Baggy ended up in the Swiss's quarter once again, so he may get a chance at a rematch. But there are some other players there for Federer to worry about. It's unlikely that Federer will be challenged until the fourth round, where he may face either Gilles Simon or Tomas Berdych. His quartefinal opponent may be Baghdatis, Verdasco, or Cilic. All of these guys are dangerous players on hard courts, and if Federer isn't quite as motivated to play at these Masters Series events as he once was, anyone could play a great match and score an upset. Or he may want to forget about what happened in Miami as quickly as possible and steamroll his way to the semis. Also possible.

Andy Murray's quarter is opposite Federer's and it doesn't look much easier. Murray could get Fish in the second round, then Feliciano Lopez in the third. After that, he may get Wawrinka or Youzhny. That's a damn tough eighth of the draw to find yourself in. And if he makes it through all that to reach the quarters, he'll likely either get a rematch with Robin Soderling, or he'll play big-hitting Fernando Gonzalez. Janko Tipsarevic, who beat Murray in Dubai, is also here, but I don't see him getting another shot at Murray. That's a tough road to the semis, only to possibly find Federer there.

I think the reason that all of the top seeds got relatively difficult draws is in part because of the depth of men's tennis, but also because a lot of really top-notch players are currently underranked, and can end up anywhere in a draw like this. Nadal opens against Taylor Dent and could get David Nalbandian in the third round, as an example of just how far some players are underranked. After that, he may get either David Ferrer or Ivo Karlovic - just about as different as two playing styles can get, so that's tough to get ready for, when you're thinking ahead. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be one of two players - it could JW Tsonga or big-hitting American John Isner. Isner was lucky to find himself in Tsonga's section, as the Frenchman has trouble dealing with the really big servers.

The final quarter of the draw is Djokovic's, and while I was hoping for the Djoker to find Richard Gasquet in the second round, Olivier Rochus spoiled that. I thought that he may get James Blake in the third round as well, but Blake has his hands full with Serbian teenager Filip Krajinovic. There are still plenty of tough players in his little section, though. Sam Querrey and Nicolas Almagro can both hit anyone off the court on the right day, and Djokovic's seeded third-round opponent, Tomaz Bellucci, is still looking for his breakthrough win. If Djokovic got the rest he needed in the past week, he should make it through, but otherwise, who knows?

Djokovic's quarterfinal opponent is seeded to be Andy Roddick, last week's losing finalist. The good news for Andy is that there's only one player in his 1/8 of the draw that should really threaten him. The bad news is that player is last week's titlist, Ivan Ljubicic. But keep in mind that Ljubicic just turned 31, so it may be tough for him to keep up such a fantastic run of form for another week and a half. Roddick will I'm sure be hoping that Tommy Robredo upsets Ljubicic in order to get another drubbing from Roddick in the round of sixteen.

In the last tournament, upsets were the order of the day. Will the top players restore order here in Miami, or will we have another surprise set of finalists?