Monday, September 20, 2010

Davis Cup Wrap-Up and Week 38 Preview

It is technically a bit early to be writing a Davis Cup weekend wrap-up, because Australia and Belgium are still locked in their fifth rubber, tied at two a piece. Play was largely suspended yesterday, as heavy rains made action impossible. With Lleyton Hewitt out of the picture, the first reverse singles match was a tough one, but Olivier Rochus beat Peter Luczak in four sets, three of them tiebreaks. Now Steve Darcis and Carsten Ball are playing - this could be a big moment for young Carsten.

As for the ties that did finish up today, there were a surprising number of comebacks. India completed their comeback from two points to none down after the first day's singles - helped immensely by a retirement by top Brazilian player Tomaz Bellucci against Somdev Devvarman. A massive comeback for the Indian squad, though I must say I don't like their chances in the World Group next year.

Austria also came back from two points to one down to beat Israel in Tel Aviv, which is a devastating result for the Israelis. It wasn't a surprise that Melzer beat Sela (though the ease with which he dispatched the top Israeli player was a bit of a surprise) but Harel Levy must have felt like he had a chance to beat Martin Fischer, but the Austrian was not overwhelmed by the occasion or the crowd, and he pulled out a fairly straightforward four set win. That was Fischer's first Davis Cup match! Stunning performance.

But the biggest fightback was Serbia's defeat of the Czech Republic, after losing the doubles rubber on Saturday. Novak Djokovic beat Tomas Berdych in a rematch of their Wimbledon semifinal, and then Janko Tipsarevic absolutely blitzed Radek Stepanek. The veteran may have been a bit exhausted, or feeling some lingering effects from his recent injuries, but Tipsy blew him off the court. So now Serbia is on to their first Davis Cup final, set to face France in Belgrade in a few months' time. Tipsarevic was really the hero, winning both of his singles matches.

But perhaps the biggest hero of the weekend for any particular team was Mardy Fish, who won two five-set singles matches and a four-set doubles match to put the U.S. past the Colombians, in what could charitably be called just about the worst possible conditions for American players. It wasn't great tennis, but Fish played incredibly tough and showed a lot of heart. There were times in the past few years that Mardy was talking like his career was in its twilight stages, but I don't think there's any reason to expect he doesn't have a lot left in him during the years to come.

In other news, Grigor Dimitrov won his second consecutive Challenger tournament, and jumped into the top 150 in the rankings. Brad Gilbert predicted he'd be in the top 20 within a year, which still sounds like a big ask, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. If he can get closer to the top hundred by the end of the year and start getting direct acceptance into top-level tournaments, he'll have the chance to really prove himself among the game's best.

Anyway, looking ahead to the action during the coming week. I'll admit that it's not the most exciting, after a weekend of non-stop Davis Cup action and two weeks of the U.S. Open. But there are some interesting storylines to look at.

In Bucharest, we have the year's final clay court tournament! The clay court year may be ending with a whimper, rather than a bang, because the top seed in Romania is 22nd ranked Albert Montanes, while the second seed is 45th ranked Florian Mayer. Keep an eye on Victor Hanescu in this draw, as the top Romanian player loves clay and is hot coming off Romania's win in the Davis Cup. Every one of these players knows that they should be getting ready for the hard court season in Asia, but their best bet for ranking points is on the clay, so they're scrambling for what they can get in this, their lost shot this year. It's an interesting assortment of specialists.

The draw in Metz is quite a bit stronger, headlined by a slumping Marin Cilic, but also featuring Monfils, Gasquet, Llodra, and Simon, a powerful French contingent, no question. Simon opens against flamboyant Jamaican Dustin Brown, which should be an interesting match. Other match-ups to watch for are Arnaud Clement as a potential second-round for Marin Cilic, and Xavier Malisse potentially getting Ivan Ljubicic. And Jarkko Nieminen and Benjamin Becker in the first round isn't a bad match-up, and could be a fun match. I'll take another look at these draws a few rounds in, to see how things have developed.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Davis Cup Saturday

Of the ten Davis Cup ties relating to the World Group that are taking place this weekend, four have already reached their conclusion. Three of the playoff rubbers: Germany has beaten South Africa, Romania has beaten Ecuador, and - in the only real surprise, Kazakhstan has trounced Switzerland. I expect that Stan Wawrinka, the player who really needed to put in a strong performance for Switzerland with Roger Federer out of the picture, was still exhausted and possibly nursing an injury from his run at the U.S. Open. It's not the first time this has happened, though, as Switzerland actually dropped out of the World Group as recently as 1998. Federer didn't help the Swiss come back from that a few years ago - I wonder if he'll do it next year.

In the World Group semifinals, France stormed to a 3-0 victory against Argentina. On the day of the first singles, it looked like Nalbandian was going to outplay Gael Monfils, but then Nalby just went away in the third set, and from that point on, Argentina was never even in the tie. France made it to their first final since 2002.

They'll face either Serbia or the Czech Republic - their rubber was tied at the end of the singles. Djokovic was forced to withdraw, and Troicki lost to Stepanek. But then Tipsarevic turned in one of his best career performances to beat Berdych in four sets. A really strong performance from Janko. Unfortunately for the Serbian fans, despite Djokovic's presence in the doubles, the Czechs won in straights, so they'll have the advantage going into the final day. It will be interesting to see if Djokovic plays singles, and how well he can play. If he does play up to his potential and manages to win, the match between Stepanek and Tipsarevic could be the deciding one, and that's an intriguing one.

As for the as-yet undecided playoff matches, the one that I have the most interest in is - as you might expect - the U.S. against Colombia. In an effort to counter the U.S. players' strengths at every turn, they not only decided to play the rubber on clay, but also decided to use pressureless balls. While it may have been tough for the U.S. players to deal with, it hasn't been easy for the Colombians either. In Mardy Fish's five-set win over Alejandro Falla, the two of them hit nearly 200 unforced errors. But Fish adjusted to the conditions, while Sam Querrey, who followed him, just couldn't get his game together in the adverse conditions. It wasn't an encouraging performance, but I can understand. While pressureless balls and clay courts make for some difficult back-court rallies, they don't make much difference up at net - which was why I favored Fish and Isner in the doubles match, and it turn out to be the case that they pulled out the win. If there's one thing that Isner's used to, after all, it's altitude. I don't know if Querrey's going back out for the reverse singles (I wouldn't be surprised if they subbed in Isner instead) but I think the odds of the Americans picking up one of those two points is pretty good.

Australia may be up two points to one over Belgium, so it may seem like their victory is assured. But Lleyton Hewitt is out of the reverse singles with a wrist injury, so it seems that either Peter Luczak or Carsten Ball will need to win a singles match to get the Australians, too. It's a break for the Belgians, but it's still a tough ask, to win both points on the final day of a Davis Cup match.

For example, I have to doubt that the Italians have a chance of winning both points against Sweden, particularly since that would mean that Potito Starace would have to beat Robin Soderling. That's not looking too likely to me.

India and Brazil had the most exciting first day of the whole weekend, despite it being an outright disaster for the home team. India lost both matches in five-set thrillers, but they bounced back in the doubles - not really a surprise, as Bhupathi and Paes are one of the great doubles teams of our era. Since the first singles matches were so close, there's a chance - not a big chance, but a slight one - for an Indian comeback tomorrow. But I see the Brazilians coming through.

And Israel and Austria are resuming action after taking a day off for Yom Kippur. It's tough to see Austria coming back from 2 points to 1 down, but if Melzer can beat Sela (a likely event) it would all come down to young Andreas Haider-Maurer against the veteran Harel Levy. That would be a deciding rubber that would be fun to see.

Davis Cup weekends are full of fun action. There were some good matches in the regional competition as well - Canadian teen Milos Raonic beat a vet from the Dominican Republic 9-7 in the fifth, which is a great result for him. Korea won the first two points of their tie against the Philippines, and both of their singles players were teenagers. Encouraging signs for the Korean team. And the young Lithuanian player Ricardas Berankis beat Blaz Kavcic of Slovakia, then contributed to a five-set doubles win as well. He could win the whole tie himself!