Wow, another great day of tennis in Cincinnati. One match went exactly as expected, as a fresh Federer tore through Davydenko - while the Russian was able to manufacture a few points of magic, he wasn't strong enough to avoid the inevitable, as Federer finished him off in straight sets. But Davy was not in his best form, and that is exactly what he would have needed to stage the upset, there.
Two of the other matches were nominally upsets, as Mardy Fish beat Andy Murray and Andy Roddick beat Novak Djokovic, but both of them had held winning streaks over their opponents going into today's match, and the world's number 3 and 4 were overtired and not fond of the conditions. So while those results may have been upsets, they shouldn't have come as complete surprises. The Murray-Fish match was a great one - one blowout set sandwiched in between two really tight ones, and Mardy just ended up being a little bit tougher in the end.
But the fourth match was an absolute shocker - Marcos Bagdhatis played as well as I've seen him play since 2007 at least to upset the world number one Rafael Nadal. He served out of his mind and hit some absolutely spectacular shots, while Nadal was just a bit below his best. Down break points at 4-all in the set, Nadal double-faulted. That's something I've never seen him do in a situation like that, and it just goes to show how he doesn't care for these conditions. Credit to Baghdatis for closing it out, though, and even for getting to that point. It was excellent to see.
So our two semifinal match-ups feature Mardy Fish against Andy Roddick and Roger Federer against Marcos Baghdatis. The Fed-Baggy match is a rematch of an Australian Open final, where Baggy had his break-out run several years ago, only to lose to Federer at that stage. You have to favor Federer again here, as Fed has picked up his game this season, but Baghdatis clipped him the last time they played, earlier this year in one of the Spring hardcourt masters events. That may have been an anomaly, though - we'll just have to wait and see.
For the Roddick-Fish match, the situation is surprisingly similar. Roddick owns Fish in their head-to-head, but Fish won their most recent match, in Atlanta just a few weeks ago. Of course, that was while Roddick was suffering from his minor bout with mono, so that was probably a factor. Neither Fish nor Roddick is likely going to be at their absolute best tomorrow, as neither player was at 100% today and they have the early match tomorrow, and Fish had to play a doubles match this evening, which he unfortunately lost 10-8 in the third set super-tiebreaker. The plus side is that whoever wins will have more of a chance to recuperate before the final...
... where they will almost certainly have to play Federer. Fish has beaten Fed in a Masters event like this one, on a hard court, a couple of years ago. And one of Roddick's two wins over Fed came at the Canada Masters in 2003. That said, Federer is still the immense favorite to win this tournament, considering the opposition he has left to fight through. Roddick and Federe haven't played yet this year, and the last Masters final before the U.S. open would be a pretty good place to renew their one-sided rivalry. But who knows? We could get a Baghdatis-Fish final!
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Friday, August 20, 2010
Cincinnati Quarterfinals
The round of 16 was quite a day of tennis. Of the seven matches that were played (Federer got a walkover from Kohlschreiber), every one had a set that went at least to 7-5. Four of the matches went to three sets, and in three of those matches, the ultimate winner of the match lost the first set and had to come back. Nadal saved a match point, Roddick needed something like five or six before he could close the match out, and Murray had to win a third-set tiebreak against Gulbis. Crazy stuff, all around. If Nalbandian hadn't double-faulted on match point against Djokovic, I wouldn't have liked the Serb's chances in a third, in that heat.
The only matches that were pretty straightforward were Mardy Fish over Richard Gasquet and Marcos Baghdatis over Tomas Berdych. That second one is a bit of shock - it's one of Baggy's biggest wins in a long time, against one of the players who was in consideration to take this title. He'll get Nadal in the next round, and Nadal was not at his best against Frenchman Julien Benneteau. The Spaniard had to save a match point in the second set tiebreak, but once he won that tiebreak, the Frenchman absolutely wilted. He started cramping - he just didn't have anything left. Credit to him for playing the match out, and then going on to lose his doubles match in the night session as well, but that's just a brutal day. He played brilliant tennis to get to the finish line. He just couldn't cross it.
Federer, who has played a grand total of 7 games to get the quarterfinals, gets Nikolay Davydenko. The only chance that the Russian has is if Federer is put off by not being on court very much this week. He may have beaten Federer in two of their last three meetings, but he has not been playing at his highest level, whereas Federer just came off a great run last week. Tough to see Davydenko pull off this upset, unless Federer is out of sorts.
Again, the bottom half is more loaded - Mardy Fish gets Andy Murray in the quarters, and Fish has won their last two meetings, as well. Murray may be in great form, but he's also played a lot of tennis, and getting taken to a third-set tiebreak by Gulbis today won't have helped him. Fish had a relatively easy, 69-minute win over Gasquet. I really give Mardy a real shot at pulling off this upset, if he can come up with his best stuff. They're playing in the first singles of the match of the day (for British television, I assume) and that gives Murray the least amount of recovery time he could have gotten. It's a tough set of conditions for the Scot, honestly.
The last quarterfinal match is between Djokovic and Roddick - Djokovic had the smoother passage to this round, but he didn't look that good in the process. He was hurting in the heat, and it looks like they'll be playing tomorrow during the hottest part of the day. Assuming that Roddick can recover from his late start, the conditions definitely favor him. Roddick has won the last three against the Djoker, in conditions similar to these. Roddick will need to play better on the big points than he did against Soderling (2 for 12 on break points? That's bad even for Andy) but he's got a real shot here.
Can you bet that the Cincinnati organizers are praying for a Federer-Nadal and Andy-Andy set of semifinals? That's about as good as they could have hoped. Fish-Roddick wouldn't be as good for the international market, but it might help get people in the U.S. to pay a bit more attention. Really, there aren't any bad match-ups left. If Baghdatis pulls of the upset, a Baggy-Fed semifinal is a grand slam final rematch. If Fish and Djokovic play, that was the Indian Wells final a couple years ago. These are eight excellent tennis players, and I'm just excited to be able to watch them play.
The only matches that were pretty straightforward were Mardy Fish over Richard Gasquet and Marcos Baghdatis over Tomas Berdych. That second one is a bit of shock - it's one of Baggy's biggest wins in a long time, against one of the players who was in consideration to take this title. He'll get Nadal in the next round, and Nadal was not at his best against Frenchman Julien Benneteau. The Spaniard had to save a match point in the second set tiebreak, but once he won that tiebreak, the Frenchman absolutely wilted. He started cramping - he just didn't have anything left. Credit to him for playing the match out, and then going on to lose his doubles match in the night session as well, but that's just a brutal day. He played brilliant tennis to get to the finish line. He just couldn't cross it.
Federer, who has played a grand total of 7 games to get the quarterfinals, gets Nikolay Davydenko. The only chance that the Russian has is if Federer is put off by not being on court very much this week. He may have beaten Federer in two of their last three meetings, but he has not been playing at his highest level, whereas Federer just came off a great run last week. Tough to see Davydenko pull off this upset, unless Federer is out of sorts.
Again, the bottom half is more loaded - Mardy Fish gets Andy Murray in the quarters, and Fish has won their last two meetings, as well. Murray may be in great form, but he's also played a lot of tennis, and getting taken to a third-set tiebreak by Gulbis today won't have helped him. Fish had a relatively easy, 69-minute win over Gasquet. I really give Mardy a real shot at pulling off this upset, if he can come up with his best stuff. They're playing in the first singles of the match of the day (for British television, I assume) and that gives Murray the least amount of recovery time he could have gotten. It's a tough set of conditions for the Scot, honestly.
The last quarterfinal match is between Djokovic and Roddick - Djokovic had the smoother passage to this round, but he didn't look that good in the process. He was hurting in the heat, and it looks like they'll be playing tomorrow during the hottest part of the day. Assuming that Roddick can recover from his late start, the conditions definitely favor him. Roddick has won the last three against the Djoker, in conditions similar to these. Roddick will need to play better on the big points than he did against Soderling (2 for 12 on break points? That's bad even for Andy) but he's got a real shot here.
Can you bet that the Cincinnati organizers are praying for a Federer-Nadal and Andy-Andy set of semifinals? That's about as good as they could have hoped. Fish-Roddick wouldn't be as good for the international market, but it might help get people in the U.S. to pay a bit more attention. Really, there aren't any bad match-ups left. If Baghdatis pulls of the upset, a Baggy-Fed semifinal is a grand slam final rematch. If Fish and Djokovic play, that was the Indian Wells final a couple years ago. These are eight excellent tennis players, and I'm just excited to be able to watch them play.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Cincinatti Round of 16
Through two rounds at the Western & Southern Financial Group Masters, and the tournament is shaping up quite nicely. The top seeds are generally progressing, but the lower seeds haven't fared that great, as several of them got very tough opening draws. Cilic fell on day one to Marcos Baghdatis, and Youzhny fell to Richard Gasquet. Ljubicic dropped to David Nalbandian, and Almagro fell to Stan Wawrinka. But those guys are all former top ten players, so you could have seen those upsets coming. The two bigger surprises today were Ernests Gulbis over Jurgen Melzer (though Gulbis is probably a future top-tenner, in all likelihood) and Mardy Fish over Fernando Verdasco, in two tight tiebreak sets. Other than that, the top players have done well.
The other interesting story has actually been the failure of two of the top American players - Sam Querrey fell pretty tamely against David Ferrer, while John Isner rolled his ankle while playing David Nalbandian, and actually had to retire while leading in the first set. Tough break for Big John, but really a disappointing loss for Querrey. He's dominated at the 250 and 500 tournament level this year, but he has really stumbled at the Masters and Majors. That's got to be the next stage in his career, if he wants to get into the top 15.
Tomorrow, in the round of 16, there are some great match-ups. Marcos Baghdatis plays Tomas Berdych for the right to face Rafael Nadal, who should breeze past Julien Benneteau. Federer plays German Phillipp Kohlschreiber, which should also be a breeze for the former world number one. Rog is 5-0 against the German. They'll be playing to face the winner of Davydenko and Ferrer, which should be a fun match - but neither player will have a chance against Fed in the quarters.
The bottom half of the draw is much more interesting. Any of these eight players have a pretty good chance of making it to the final, while the top half is going to be the winner of the Federer-Nadal semi, in all likelihood. But here, we have Fish against Gasquet, two palyers who are trying to mount comebacks this year, and particularly this season, and a quarterfinal at a Masters event is always a good thing to have under your belt. Gasquet leads the head-to-head 2-0, but they haven't played in two years. That could be a fun match - Gasquet is the better player over all, but Fish has been much better in the past couple months.
They'll be playing for a chance to go after the winner of Andy Murray against Ernests Gulbis, another potential thriller of a match. Gulbis has yet to win against Murray, but they haven't played this year. There's a chance of an upset here, if Gulbis can play his best tennis. And if Murray's a little bit off his game.
The last quarter of the draw is just stacked. Andy Roddick plays Robin Soderling, a match which should be a corker. It's the night match, as well - that's an environment where Roddick thrives. But Soderling has no problem playing the villain. Depending on how tight it is - and if it's a blowout, it'll be a blowout for the Swede - the crowd could play an important role in that match. Roddick needs some match practice before the U.S. Open if he holds any hope of making a run this year, so tomorrow's match is one he needs to win.
Of course, even once he does, he'll be facing either Novak Djokovic or David Nalbandian. Roddick will be hoping that the Djoker doesn't get upset, because he's owned the Serb on hardcourts, especially in day matches. Nalbandian's a bit of tougher story, but this should be a great match-up. Nalbandian's playing like a top guy again, but he's yet to notch a really big win since his come-back began. He beat Robin Soderling, who's number five - but Soderling really stumbled into that ranking. You really have to beat at least one of the big four to really be a contender at these big tournaments.
Lots of storylines tomorrow - it's a bit of a shame that the draw is so bottom-heavy, but it does make for fifty percent of tomorrow's matches to be potentially great viewing. Should be fun!
The other interesting story has actually been the failure of two of the top American players - Sam Querrey fell pretty tamely against David Ferrer, while John Isner rolled his ankle while playing David Nalbandian, and actually had to retire while leading in the first set. Tough break for Big John, but really a disappointing loss for Querrey. He's dominated at the 250 and 500 tournament level this year, but he has really stumbled at the Masters and Majors. That's got to be the next stage in his career, if he wants to get into the top 15.
Tomorrow, in the round of 16, there are some great match-ups. Marcos Baghdatis plays Tomas Berdych for the right to face Rafael Nadal, who should breeze past Julien Benneteau. Federer plays German Phillipp Kohlschreiber, which should also be a breeze for the former world number one. Rog is 5-0 against the German. They'll be playing to face the winner of Davydenko and Ferrer, which should be a fun match - but neither player will have a chance against Fed in the quarters.
The bottom half of the draw is much more interesting. Any of these eight players have a pretty good chance of making it to the final, while the top half is going to be the winner of the Federer-Nadal semi, in all likelihood. But here, we have Fish against Gasquet, two palyers who are trying to mount comebacks this year, and particularly this season, and a quarterfinal at a Masters event is always a good thing to have under your belt. Gasquet leads the head-to-head 2-0, but they haven't played in two years. That could be a fun match - Gasquet is the better player over all, but Fish has been much better in the past couple months.
They'll be playing for a chance to go after the winner of Andy Murray against Ernests Gulbis, another potential thriller of a match. Gulbis has yet to win against Murray, but they haven't played this year. There's a chance of an upset here, if Gulbis can play his best tennis. And if Murray's a little bit off his game.
The last quarter of the draw is just stacked. Andy Roddick plays Robin Soderling, a match which should be a corker. It's the night match, as well - that's an environment where Roddick thrives. But Soderling has no problem playing the villain. Depending on how tight it is - and if it's a blowout, it'll be a blowout for the Swede - the crowd could play an important role in that match. Roddick needs some match practice before the U.S. Open if he holds any hope of making a run this year, so tomorrow's match is one he needs to win.
Of course, even once he does, he'll be facing either Novak Djokovic or David Nalbandian. Roddick will be hoping that the Djoker doesn't get upset, because he's owned the Serb on hardcourts, especially in day matches. Nalbandian's a bit of tougher story, but this should be a great match-up. Nalbandian's playing like a top guy again, but he's yet to notch a really big win since his come-back began. He beat Robin Soderling, who's number five - but Soderling really stumbled into that ranking. You really have to beat at least one of the big four to really be a contender at these big tournaments.
Lots of storylines tomorrow - it's a bit of a shame that the draw is so bottom-heavy, but it does make for fifty percent of tomorrow's matches to be potentially great viewing. Should be fun!
Monday, August 16, 2010
Rogers Cup Wrap-Up and Cincinnati Preview
Well, that was a weird final day. Both of the matches which took place today were delayed and interrupted by some problems with rain. In Toronto, during the men's final, the rain delay just kept Federer from really getting into the match. It was a tight affair, but Murray won 7-5, 7-5. Unfortunately, because of the odd conditions in which the match was played, it's tough to tell too much from Murray's victory. He played great, but he got a few breaks that ended up deciding the match. Good win for the Scot, but good for Federer to make it back to number two in the world.
In Cincinnati, the women's final was just as odd. Kim Clijsters was down a set and a break, and was serving to stay in the tournament when a rain delay came along, and she went ahead to break Sharapova while she was serving for the match, then won the second set in a tiebreak. Sharapova was troubled by some kind of injury in the third, but credit Kim for playing through a tough situation. And Maria was magnanimous in defeat - I'm glad to see her back near the top level of the game, because she's such a great personality in addition to being such a great competitor.
The second big men's Masters event takes place next week in Cincinnati, now that the women are off to Canada. I'll take a look at the draw there - this pair of Masters Series tournaments is always a great fortnight during the Summer, something of a U.S. Open preview. Murray just helped his odds in Flushing Meadows this year, but Federer showed he can still play some great tennis to make it to that stage.
Nadal is still the top seed, of course, and one of the eight players to get a bye in the first round. His section of the draw has some tricky players - in fact, his first match could be against Feliciano Lopez, who beat Nadal in Queens. Lopez has to get past Taylor Dent first, but Dent has not been having a great year. After that, Nadal will probably get either Almagro or Wawrinka, who are actually playing each other in the first round. That's going to be a good match, and the winner will get either Llodra or Benneteau - but I'd bet against either Frenchman, no matter who they get. In the quarters, Nadal could have face Cilic, but the Croat was already upset in the first round by Marcos Baghdatis. As a result, it's likely that the Spaniard will get Berdych instead. That should be a fun one.
Even though Federer moved up to number two again this week, the seedings were already determined for this week's tournament, which means that Federer is still the third seed, and could face Nadal in the semifinals. Since Federer is the defending champ here, that's a tough draw - and Federer could slip back to third in the world before the U.S. Open seeds are determined. Lots on the line here. Fed's quarter also has two American wildcards - Robbie Ginepri and James Blake, who could get Fed in the second round. It's tough to see the American pulling off that upset, but he's beaten Roger before. After that, Fed could face Monfils or Kohlschreiber, or his near-conqueror Alejandro Falla. In the quarters, Davydenko is Fed's seeded opponent, but since the Russian has not been playing his best, I see either Querrey or Ferrer making it there. This is actually a good chance for Sam, who has gotten a pretty good draw. He needs a good result at a big tournament like this.
The third quarter is Murray's, but there are a lot of dangerous floaters there. His seeded quarterfinal opponent is Verdasco, but he could have to get by Melzer, Youzhny, Gulbis, Chardy, Gasquet, Fish, or Simon instead. This quarter has the most firecracker opening rounds - Fish against Simon, Gasquet against Youzhny, and Gulbis against U.S. wildcard Donald Young. Lots of fun, streaky players here, so any number of them have the chance to get on a run through to the semifinals.
The final quarter has Novak Djokovic, Robin Soderling, and recently mono-suffering Andy Roddick, who has dropped to the ninth seed, so he has to open in the first round against Sergiy Stakhovsky. Lleyton Hewitt opens against Yen-Hsun Lu for the chance to face Soderling, while David Nalbandian gets Ivan Ljubicic. And Djokovic's first opponent will be either Radek Stepanek or Viktor Troicki. And John Isner is in this section, too. These bottom two quarters are pretty much loaded, honestly. And it's tough to know who's going to get through. There are plenty of great match-ups, though. I'm excited for another week of Masters Series tennis.
In Cincinnati, the women's final was just as odd. Kim Clijsters was down a set and a break, and was serving to stay in the tournament when a rain delay came along, and she went ahead to break Sharapova while she was serving for the match, then won the second set in a tiebreak. Sharapova was troubled by some kind of injury in the third, but credit Kim for playing through a tough situation. And Maria was magnanimous in defeat - I'm glad to see her back near the top level of the game, because she's such a great personality in addition to being such a great competitor.
The second big men's Masters event takes place next week in Cincinnati, now that the women are off to Canada. I'll take a look at the draw there - this pair of Masters Series tournaments is always a great fortnight during the Summer, something of a U.S. Open preview. Murray just helped his odds in Flushing Meadows this year, but Federer showed he can still play some great tennis to make it to that stage.
Nadal is still the top seed, of course, and one of the eight players to get a bye in the first round. His section of the draw has some tricky players - in fact, his first match could be against Feliciano Lopez, who beat Nadal in Queens. Lopez has to get past Taylor Dent first, but Dent has not been having a great year. After that, Nadal will probably get either Almagro or Wawrinka, who are actually playing each other in the first round. That's going to be a good match, and the winner will get either Llodra or Benneteau - but I'd bet against either Frenchman, no matter who they get. In the quarters, Nadal could have face Cilic, but the Croat was already upset in the first round by Marcos Baghdatis. As a result, it's likely that the Spaniard will get Berdych instead. That should be a fun one.
Even though Federer moved up to number two again this week, the seedings were already determined for this week's tournament, which means that Federer is still the third seed, and could face Nadal in the semifinals. Since Federer is the defending champ here, that's a tough draw - and Federer could slip back to third in the world before the U.S. Open seeds are determined. Lots on the line here. Fed's quarter also has two American wildcards - Robbie Ginepri and James Blake, who could get Fed in the second round. It's tough to see the American pulling off that upset, but he's beaten Roger before. After that, Fed could face Monfils or Kohlschreiber, or his near-conqueror Alejandro Falla. In the quarters, Davydenko is Fed's seeded opponent, but since the Russian has not been playing his best, I see either Querrey or Ferrer making it there. This is actually a good chance for Sam, who has gotten a pretty good draw. He needs a good result at a big tournament like this.
The third quarter is Murray's, but there are a lot of dangerous floaters there. His seeded quarterfinal opponent is Verdasco, but he could have to get by Melzer, Youzhny, Gulbis, Chardy, Gasquet, Fish, or Simon instead. This quarter has the most firecracker opening rounds - Fish against Simon, Gasquet against Youzhny, and Gulbis against U.S. wildcard Donald Young. Lots of fun, streaky players here, so any number of them have the chance to get on a run through to the semifinals.
The final quarter has Novak Djokovic, Robin Soderling, and recently mono-suffering Andy Roddick, who has dropped to the ninth seed, so he has to open in the first round against Sergiy Stakhovsky. Lleyton Hewitt opens against Yen-Hsun Lu for the chance to face Soderling, while David Nalbandian gets Ivan Ljubicic. And Djokovic's first opponent will be either Radek Stepanek or Viktor Troicki. And John Isner is in this section, too. These bottom two quarters are pretty much loaded, honestly. And it's tough to know who's going to get through. There are plenty of great match-ups, though. I'm excited for another week of Masters Series tennis.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Rogers Cup Final
The two semifinal matches today were both very interesting, but for different reasons. The Murray-Nadal match was not really much of a contest, as Murray played absolutely lights-out tennis in order to keep Nadal stifled from the very first ball. He played the way he played in Australia, rather than the way he played at Wimbledon. It was the best performance I've seen from Murray in a long time, and it was Nadal's first significant loss essentially since the clay season started.
On the other hand, Federer started out just as dominant - if not more so - against Djokovic, only to falter after he got up a set and a break. Djokovic won five of six games straight, then broke again to take the set, 6-3. The third set was a tight affair, with Djokovic having chances to break and serve for the match. But Federer held on, and the Serb finally wilted when he was trying to serve his way into a deciding tiebreak.
It was a mish-mash from both players, with neither one showing very much consistency at all. But when they were both on, it looked like a match two of the best players in the world, there was no question about that. But both guys were also making really strange unforced errors, as well. An exciting match, even the tennis may not have been of the highest caliber.
It should be fascinating to see how Federer and Murray match up tomorrow - Murray may lead the head to head, but Federer has won their last three meetings, and he could get back to even with a win tomorrow. Fed hasn't won a title since the Aussie Open, whereas Murray hasn't won one since last year. There is an enormous amount on the line for both guys - as far as rankings are concerned, Federer will bump back up to number two next week no matter what, but I think that Murray is in danger of dropping back down to number five, if you can believe that. This is a massive match for both of these guys' hard-court seasons, and for their rivalry.
If Murray plays the way he did against Nadal, and Federer plays the way he did against Djokovic, I give Murray the edge. He was more consistently the better player. It will be fun to see what happens, no matter what the result.
On the other hand, Federer started out just as dominant - if not more so - against Djokovic, only to falter after he got up a set and a break. Djokovic won five of six games straight, then broke again to take the set, 6-3. The third set was a tight affair, with Djokovic having chances to break and serve for the match. But Federer held on, and the Serb finally wilted when he was trying to serve his way into a deciding tiebreak.
It was a mish-mash from both players, with neither one showing very much consistency at all. But when they were both on, it looked like a match two of the best players in the world, there was no question about that. But both guys were also making really strange unforced errors, as well. An exciting match, even the tennis may not have been of the highest caliber.
It should be fascinating to see how Federer and Murray match up tomorrow - Murray may lead the head to head, but Federer has won their last three meetings, and he could get back to even with a win tomorrow. Fed hasn't won a title since the Aussie Open, whereas Murray hasn't won one since last year. There is an enormous amount on the line for both guys - as far as rankings are concerned, Federer will bump back up to number two next week no matter what, but I think that Murray is in danger of dropping back down to number five, if you can believe that. This is a massive match for both of these guys' hard-court seasons, and for their rivalry.
If Murray plays the way he did against Nadal, and Federer plays the way he did against Djokovic, I give Murray the edge. He was more consistently the better player. It will be fun to see what happens, no matter what the result.
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