Saturday, April 10, 2010

Week 14 Semifinal Preview

We're up to the semifinals at the first four clay court tournaments of the season, and unfortunately, the biggest story of the week is not a good one. Wayne Odesnik, convicted of possessing and smuggling HGH into Australia earlier in the year, is still playing at this year's U.S. Clay Court Championships in Houston. Pete Bodo has the best look at the whole situation, but the summary is this:

There is no possible way, based on any evidence that we've been presented with thus far, that Odesnik will not get out of a suspension. He's been convicted of possession, and that is punishable in the same way that a positive drug test would have been. So it's a near-certainty that he'll be out of the game for two years, and all of his results between his conviction and his suspension will be nullified. His prize money, too. So that means he's playing in this tournaments - and making the the quarterfinals, thus far - for nothing, except denying other players their shot.

It's either really stupid, or really shameless, or both. I don't have a lot of sympathy for this guy at this point, and I hope that he loses to Querrey in the next round, or else he has a real shot at winning at the tournament, which is absolutely a terrible result for all involved. The ATP needs to review their policies after this whole ordeal and get some sort of a provisional suspension in place so that this does not happen again. It's just not acceptable. Hopefully, Querrey can end this story before it becomes a real problem for the ITF and the WADA.

In any case, the other semifinal in Houston, which looked like it would be Gonzalez and Hewitt, is instead Juan Ignacio Chela and Horacio Zeballos. Not quite the blockbuster that the organizers were hoping for. They're both relatively unknown players in the states, but both very talented clay court players, and either one has a legitimate shot of walking away with the title. Here's hoping that they beat Odesnik, if Querrey can't pull it off.

In Casablanca, things are relatively quiet. Victor Hanescu has been playing some great ball to beat Jarkko Nieminen, who blew through qualifying, and then former top-ten player Richard Gasquet, who still hasn't gotten his career Renaissance. Hanescu faces Florent Serra in one semifinal, while the other is top seed Stan Wawrinka against Italy's Potito Starace, who hasn't had the toughest draw, but hasn't lost a set and has been playing great ball. Really, any one of these players has a legitimate shot at the title, and it's tough to know who's going to come out on top.

Really, everyone's looking ahead to next week's tournament in Monte Carlo - the draw comes out tomorrow, so we'll take a look at that and see the real beginning of the clay court season starting next week. This is all just a warm-up.

Monday, April 5, 2010

Miami Review and Next Week's Preview

Roddick won today, in what could only be described as an efficient and workmanlike performance. It didn't reach the level of shotmaking and spectacle that Roddick got to against Nadal, but it wasn't necessary. Berdych never quite got out of third gear, and he really needed to hit that level in order to push Roddick today. Roddick served effectively - not huge, but he was hitting his spots and preventing Berdych from really getting his feet underneath him and getting too many returns deep. He won 70% of his second serve points against the Czech, and he's going to be tough to beat when that's the case.

In fact, Roddick never even faced a break point against Berdych. He was only broken twice in the entire tournament, once against Benjamin Becker and once against Nadal. And that's all well and good, but he also managed to take advantage of the brief period where Berdych got troubled by the pressure of the situation or the sun or just an inexplicable dip in focus. Roddick broke Berdych at 5-all in the first set and then again at love-all in the second, and that was all he needed. He had a couple more break points near the end of the second set which were also match points, but Berdych managed to save them. That kind of thing could have given a less steady player pause, and it could have turned the match around. I've seen it happen before. But Roddick came back and served out the match with aplomb.

It's a bit of shame that the clay court season is just starting, because this is the biggest purple patch of Roddick's play that we've seen in a long time. And he's said in his post-tournament interview that he's not thrilled about the move to clay, which is a shame. Yes, it blunts the effectiveness of his hard serve, but his kick will still work, and his new style of defensive-minded back court play should actually serve him well. There is no reason he can't get some points at these claycourt masters series events or get into the French Open. I really hope to see him get over his phobia of crushed red brick.

Whether Roddick wants it to or not, the claycourt season starts in earnest now. But that doesn't mean that it has to leave the United States quite yet. The U.S.'s last vestige of claycourt tennis takes place this week in Houston, Texas. It should be interesting to see if an American player can do well here, as there are quite a few of them in the draw. It's green clay, which is quicker than its red counterpart, so that could help.

Lleyton Hewitt won this tournament last year, and he's back this year, in his first tournament since the drubbing he got from Roger Federer at the Australian Open. He could open against Mardy Fish, if Fish survives his first round. Both players are recovering from surgery and subsequent injury, but it could still be a good match.

Also, be on the lookout for Americans Querrey, Isner, and Russell, who are all in the same half of the draw. Even though he's the lowest-ranked, I think that Russell's game is actually the most well-suited to clay. Keep an eye on the fourth American in the bottom half of the draw as well - Wayne Odesnik, who is going to keep playing tennis while he waits for the decision resulting from the discovery that he was caught with HGH on his way into Australia. I'm surprised by his decision, and interested to see how he plays under the circumstances. He's actually not a bad player on this surface, but he's just going to get hounded here.

Also, keep an eye on Fernando Gonzalez, the top seed, and Horacio Zeballos. We all know that the South Americans have always been better on the clay. Another player who's one to watch in the top half is American wildcard Donald Young. He dropped in qualifying in the last four tournaments he's played in, so it's got to be a gift to get a wildcard directly into the main draw. Let's see if he can take advantage. Taylor Dent is also here, but this surface has just got to be death for a guy who plays big serve, net rush, and put away the volley. Don't expect him to get far.

The other tournament going on this coming week is on the other side of the pond, in Casablanca. The draw there is not especially robust, either. This week is always a bit of a dead week in some respect, as the players who did well during the hard court swing need rest, and the players who are really focusing on the claycourt swing want to get ready for the Monte Carlo masters, which takes place the following week.

The top seed and favorite to win it is Stan Wawrinka, who shouldn't really be troubled on his way to the semis, where he might face a Frenchman like Arnaud Clement or Paul-Henri Mathieu. It would be a surprise for the Swiss number two to fall prior to that. The bottom half is a bit more open, with Victor Hanescu - who really shouldn't consider clay his best surface but somehow does - Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer and two of the tournaments potential winners actually meeting in the first round - Olivier Rochus and Richard Gasquet.

After the excitement of two masters series in a row, the week that follows is going to feel a bit like a letdown, but there's still bound to be some good tennis. Just like it is for a lot of these players, it's a warm-up before the real claycourt season starts in earnest next week.

Sunday, April 4, 2010

Miami Final

Tomorrow, the men's final in Miami comes to a close. Once again, Roddick made an unlikely run, beating one top ten player en route to his final. In this case, his win was a bit more significant - Nadal here, while his toughest opponent in Indian Wells was a moderately choking Robin Soderling. Here, there was no choke, and that's the biggest difference. A few weeks ago, Roddick hung around and Soderling managed to lose, but Roddick took the match - emphatically - from Nadal on friday. That may prove to be all the difference.

Still, the situation is eerily similar. Roddick is the favorite, with his higher ranking and favorable head to head against his opponent. He had the momentum going in to the final against Ljubicic, whose tournament ultimately turned out to be a fluke, or maybe just one of the last big runs of a former top three player. Whatever it was, it was too much for Roddick to handle, despite the fact that everything seemed like it should have gone his way. Even the way he lost - Roddick was leading the tour in tiebreaks, but he couldn't pull out either against Ljubicic.

His opponent is a similar sort of player. Big guy, big server, and kind of a career underachiever. Not to mention, Berdych had a tougher road to the final. He went through three top ten players, consecutively - Federer, Verdasco, and Soderling. The last of which was a complete beatdown, as the Swede opted not to really show up for the match. Berdych has a ton of talent and can hit the crap out of the ball, but hasn't been playing great in the big moments. The real representative moment of his career has been the Australian Open against Roger Federer, up two sets to none and with a break point to serve for the match, he duffed a volley into the net.

This week, he seems to have shaken some of his demons. Not so much against Soderling, because Berdych played well, but as mentioned, the Swede was barely even there. And not against Federer, either. Berdych played solidly, but Federer gave that match away. Match point on his own serve in the third-set tiebreak? You would have bet your house on Federer winning that. However, Berdych showed real guts in sticking with Fernando Verdasco and taking him off his game. That may have been the Czech's most impressive performance.

Still, if Roddick can play at the level he played against Nadal, even in the first set when he was getting beaten, he has to like his odds against Berdych. One of the big differences between this final and the last one is that Roddick has already beaten Berdych twice this year: once at Brisbane and one in San Jose. Both were tight. In Brisbane, Berdych blew Roddick off the court in the first set, winning 6-1, before Roddick took the next two. In San Jose, Roddick won in two tiebreaks in a match with no breaks of serve.

That may be the kind of match to look for tomorrow. It all depends on a couple of factors. First of all, how on the ball Berdych is when he comes out. He can make a lot of errors, and if that's the way he's playing, expect Roddick to hang back and play more of his newer style, hanging back and keeping the ball in play. But it would not shock me, if Berdych comes out hitting his spots, if that style of play doesn't get Roddick very far. In the event that Berdych starts hitting Andy off the court, it will be interesting to see if he tries the aggressive style he used against Nadal, and to see if he can pull it off as effectively.

In either of those cases, I think Roddick wins this one. He's gotten smarter as he's matured as a tennis player, and I know that he is going to be very reluctant to have this happen to him in two consecutive tournaments. He knows he's facing a talented player who has the capability to beat him just like Ljubicic did. But Roddick will come in prepared, mentally, with a gameplan to ensure that doesn't happen again.

One last note on Roddick - how classy is this guy who commits to do a charity doubles match the night before the final, and doesn't even think of dropping his commitment despite making another surprising run to the last two. I'm really glad to have him still in the game, and hope to have him around at this level for quite a few more years.

The women's final took place this morning, but if you blinked, you may have missed it. It probably doesn't deserve a lot of attention, because while Kim Clijsters managed to find the solid form that she couldn't maintain against her compatriot Justine Henin, her opponent Venus Williams was never in the match. She did not look like the player who had won 17 matches and two tournaments consecutively. It's just like when Clijsters got blitzed at the Australian Open. There's not a lot to learn from the match, because it was just a bad day in the office. Good for Kim for staying solid, but I don't think Venus should be too worried by this loss. She'll get ready for the clay and forget about it.