Paris Masters Preview and Week 44 Look Back

We had a pair of hometown winners this week, as Roger Federer beat Novak Djokovic in Basel and David Ferrer beat surprise finalist and lucky loser Marcel Granollers in Valencia. Once the finals were set, those are the results we might have expected, but the semifinals had a couple of surprises.

The Roddick-Federer match in the semis looked like it would be an appetizing match-up, but unfortunately, Andy Roddick didn't really show up for the match. He played one of the poorest matches I've seen him play since he lost to Gilles Simon while suffering from mono this summer. He started the match serving at about 30%, and while he did improve that percentage as the match went on, his serve was never really on. And for Roddick, it's hard for him to win a match against anyone when that shot isn't working, and it's impossible for him to do it against Federer, even when Roger doesn't have to do anything special. That's really the worst possible result for Roddick - if he had lost but played a respectable match, he could take pride in that, but losing the match due to his own poor standard of play is not going to help build his confidence going into the last weeks of the season.

David Ferrer played Robin Soderling in the Valencia semis for the fifth time this year, and he won for the second time. That was a bit of a surprise, but Marcel Granollers' dismissal of Gilles Simon was more of a shock. Granollers had lost to Teymuraz Gabashvili in the qualifying draw, but got into the main tournament thanks to a withdrawal. He then won three matches against higher-ranked players and made it to the final.

As a result of the action this week, there weren't any major moves on the road to the finals in London. There's one week of regular action left, and here's how it stands. The likeliest outcome is that the current top 8 players will be the 8 who make it to the finals. The only way that Berdych (currently ranked 6th) doesn't make it is if either Youzhny or Verdasco wins the tournament and Roddick and Ferrer pass him, which would mean Roddick would have to make the semis and Ferrer would have to make at least the second round, while Berdych doesn't even win a match. The odds are good for Berdych.

Roddick and Ferrer are also in good shape, but they're not as sure bets. Melzer could bump Roddick if the Austrian wins the tournament and Roddick doesn't get any points, Youzhny would need to make the final, and Verdasco could do it by making the semis. Ferrer would need Verdasco to make the final or Youzhny to win. Considering Verdasco's form lately and Youzhny's back injury, I think the top 8 players are safe bets. Youzhny would need to get through Roddick and Verdasco would need to get through Gael Monfils and Andy Murray. Melzer would need to get through Ferrer and Federer, the winners of both of last week's tournaments. But two years ago, Tsonga needed to win the tournament to make the finals, and he played the second-best tournament of his life to do it. So anything can happen.

Looking at the other players involved in the BNP Paribas Masters. The most interesting thing is Nadal's withdrawal from the tournament - I think it may be because the Spaniard wants to make a better showing at the year-end tournament, where he has never performed well. That's one of the few remaining holes in his resume, so he may be skipping Paris to be fresher for London. Or he could really be on the verge of ending his season, which wouldn't shock me much either.

As a result, Federer is the top seed and favorite to win the tournament, since he's now on a nine match and two-tournament winning streak. As if that weren't enough, he has a pretty clear path to the semifinals. He opens against either Mahut or Gasquet, followed by Nicolas Almagro and then either Melzer or Ferrer. There's nobody in that quarter than can bother Federer, these days.

But his potential semifinal opponent, Andy Murray, has beaten him in two of their three meetings, this year. The Scot has an interesting draw, finding David Nalbandian or Marcel Granollers in his second-round match. Of course, he trounced Nalbandian earlier this year, so that may not be as exciting as it looks at first glance. After that, he could get either Cilic or one of two Ukrainian players. In the quarters, he'll probably have Verdasco or Monfils, who is now the top Frenchman in the tournament with Tsonga's injury-induced withdrawal.

The third quarter is an interesting one - Andy Roddick has the most to play for in the quarter, for sure. He'll open against either Xavier Malisse or a hot Jarkko Nieminen, and then he'll have either Gulbis or Youzhny, which is going to be a big match for two potential players in London. The other half of that quarter has Robin Soderling and Ivan Ljubicic, as well as Stan Wawrinka and Gilles Simon. You have to favor Soderling to come through, but there aren't really any weak spots there. Roddick has won both of their matches so far this year, so he can't be too upset about his draw.

Roddick also has to like that his most likely semifinal opponent is Novak Djokovic, against whom Roddick has played exceptionally well lately. Djokovic has another tough quarter, since it has Berdych, Isner, and Davydenko in it. In addition, Djokovic has to play either Monaco or Sam Querrey in his first round. Isner could open against Llodra - the pair played an epic match two weeks ago in Montpellier. The third round match between Berdych and Davydenko will be a big one for both players, assuming Davydenko can get past either Bellucci or Kohlschreiber.

There's still lots of action left in this last week of the regular season.