Paris Masters Quarterfinals

And that does it! The race to the year-end championships in London finished today, with one win and one loss. Andy Roddick started off the day with a victory over Ernests Gulbis, which gave him enough points to ensure that Jurgen Melzer was unable to qualify for the top eight, even if he were to run through the draw and win the whole tournament. After that Monfils recovered from a complete misstep of a drop shot that cost him the first set tiebreak to beat Fernando Verdasco, the last remaining challenger for one of those eight spots. With the other contenders out of the running, Berdych, Ferrer, and Roddick were all assured of qualifying for the elite group.

However, this didn't necessarily inspire them to stellar play. Tomas Berdych was up a set and in a second-set tiebreak against Nikolay Davydenko, when apparently the wheels just came off. After losing the tiebreak, Davydenko fed Berdych a bagel, improving his record to 9-1 against the Czech. And David Ferrer lost a tightly-contested (but not especially well-played match) against Jurgen Melzer, who ended up enjoying the conditions more than his baselining, dirtballing Spaniard opponent. Whether Melzer was disappointed or relieved by not having to worry about qualifying for London, one can't be sure, but it was still a good win over Ferrer, who's been playing good tennis in this last part of the season.

The other upset of the day was a complete and utter shocker. Michael Llodra came up with some absolutely inspired tennis to beat Novak Djokovic, the second seed and defending champion. Down 6-3 in the first set tiebreaker, Llodra played five of the best points of his career to come back win it, 8-6. And he kept that form up in the second set, breaking Djokovic twice while saving the three break points he faced. This was a huge match, because the pair will likely face off again in a couple weeks in the Davis Cup final. France may not have anyone in the year-end championship, but they do have a couple players who are finishing the year hot, which they'll need to be to go into a hostile Belgrade and win the Cup.

The other matches of the day were not terribly interesting. Federer beat Stepanek, and is starting to look a lot like his imperious old self again. Soderling wasn't too challenged by Wawrinka either, who was unable to finish his season by building on his big run at the U.S. Open. And Andy Murray was too steady for Cilic, who really outplayed the Scot for much of the match, but wilted in the pressure moments. The Croat looked ready to become a major player at the start of the year, but he has not finished strong. He has a ton of points to defend in the first few months of 2011 as well, so here's hoping he can find his form in the off-season.

Looking ahead to the quarterfinals, we continue to have some very appetizing match-ups. Jurgen Melzer plays sacrificial lamb to Roger Federer. They've played twice this year, both times in Grand Slams, and Federer has won 6 out of 6 sets. Only one even went to a tiebreak, the others were either 6-2 or 6-3. But Melzer is playing with house money at this point. He'll be going to London for doubles, so he'll certainly be signed up as an alternate in case one of the top eight guys is injured (still not sure how Rafa's shoulder and knees are doing...) and there's no reason for him to do anything but play his best tennis at this point. That said, that probably won't be enough to trouble Federer.

Federer's semifinal opponent may be too close to call at this point, but whoever it may be, we know they're nursing an injury. Gael Monfils was troubled by some knee problems in his victory over Verdasco (the crowd really helped him over the finish line) and Andy Murray's wrist was bothering him in his match against Nalbandian. Murray leads the head-to-head against Monfils, but the Frenchman loves playing in Paris, and he made the final here last year. The Parisian crowd doesn't seem to be too enamored of the petulant, fussy Scotsman, so expect them to be a major factor in the match, if it's close. Monfils needs to show up, though - if he plays his passive game, he'll be toast. Murray is just as a good a defender as he is, and on most days, Murray is better at turning defense into attack. Still, this should be a fun one.

In the bottom half of the draw, the sudden loss of Novak Djokovic makes the stronger semifinal significantly more important. Instead of the Djoker waiting in the semis, the winner of the Roddick-Soderling match will get either Nikolay Davydenko, who has been in poor form this part of the season, or Michael Llodra, who may have put on an astounding performance against Djokovic, but it seems unlikely that he'll be able to maintain that form. He lost to a player ranked 131st in the world at a French challenger just a few weeks ago.

So whoever wins between Andy Roddick and Robin Soderling will feel like they've got their ticket to the finals punched. The pair has already played twice this year in ATP Masters Series events, and Roddick came out on top both times, but they were both decided by extremely close margins. Soderling's record is strange - despite having made 2 Grand Slam finals, he's never made the final of a Masters event. There are two factors in play here that will make this match interesting: the first is that the court surface here is incredibly quick, which helps Roddick since Soderling takes huge swings at his groundstrokes, and the timing is much tougher on a fast surface. That's why Soderling excels on the slow clay of Roland Garros, the bounce gives him time to set up for his shots. But on the other hand, the other two times Roddick played Soderling were both outdoors and on U.S. soil. Of course, Roddick thrives in America, but being indoors helps Soderling on his serve, since he has one of the highest ball tosses in the game, and the lack of wind or sunlight helps him with that. Soderling actually beat Roddick indoors in France back in 2008. This is a real pick-em, with a lot on the line for both guys.

The other quarterfinal, between Davydenko and Llodra, will be interesting because nobody really expected either of these guys to make it thus far, much less further. But sometime, you can find your form at just the right time and see the draw open up for you a bit, and turn around a rather humdrum year. It will also be interesting to see if Llodra can continue to conjur up the kind of magic he displayed against Djokovic, which was really some stupendous stuff.

I like that the season is ending with a bang, and a lot of the top players still at their best. It often has happened in the past that the top guys lose their motivation in the final weeks of the season, which is why the Paris final has often had some surprising winners in the past, and why Federer has never gotten past the quarters here - before this year, anyway.