Aussie Open 4th Round

The third round of the AO had it's share of disappointments, but on the whole, I'd say it lived up to its potential. The hype over the Federer-Safin match was entirely unjustified, and the way the match ended up reflected that. Safin circa 2005 bears basically no resemblance to Safin 2009.

The biggest surprise of the third round, at least to me, is that realization of how well Fernando Verdasco is playing. He's played three complete matches and lost only 12 games. In comparison, Andy Murray has played two and a half matches (since Pavel retired) and has lost 19 games. They're going to play in the fourth round, and even though Murray is far and away the favorite (8:1 at BetFair, and for comparison, Baghdatis is 3.65:1) the other Fernando could really make this a match.

Of course, the Gonzalez-Gasquet match was also spectacular. Match of the tournament, thus far. Gasquet has now been paid back twice over for coming back from two sets down to beat Roddick at Wimbledon in 2007. Andy Murray did it to him at Wimby in 08, and now Gonzo's done it to him again. It's a shame someone had to lose, because it was just a stellar match, lots of drama, incredible shotmaking, injuries, and to go to 10-12 in the 5th. Whew. Let's just hope Gonzo recovers so he can show up for his match against Nadal.

The upsets of the third round were neither that exciting or surprising, but it's good to see Baghdatis, Berdych, and Cilic all playing well. I think Ferrer, Fish, and Wawrinka are all on a downward slide.

Looking at the matches in the fourth round, the only players who I don't give more than a 10% shot to are Tomas Berdych against Roger Federer, and Tommy Robredo against Andy Roddick. Robredo is actually getting pretty good odds (5:1 on Betfair), but I really don't think he's going to do much against Roddick, who has never lost to Robredo. Similarly, Berdych is going to have to play at a level that he's never played before in order to beat Federer. As for the other matches...

Cilic-Del Potro: Two big, tall young guns. These guys will probably play a lot in the next five to ten years, so this first meeting should be exciting. Cilic just beat Ferrer, but it will be very interesting to see him against Del Potro. Juan Martin has the advantage in this match, as he's more accomplished than Marin, but I imagine that this rivalry-to-be will get closer down the line.

Djokovic-Baghdatis: The sense is that this is the most likely upset of the top four players in this round. It's certainly possible, but Baghdatis is going to have to play the way he played two years ago. Djokovic hasn't been at his best this tournament, so it's possible. But I see Djoko coming through this.

Blake-Tsonga: Oh my goodness. This is going to be great. Both of these guys are incredibly exciting shotmakers and tons of fun to watch. Tsonga says his back is in good shape, but Blake has been playing very well this tournament, too. I like JW in this one, but James could come through if he plays solid throughout. He's prone to dips, and that could be his downfall.

Monfils-Simon: Another potentially stunning match from two up-and-coming French players. Monfils is a lot more fun to watch than Simon, but Gilles has had better results last year. Regardless of who wins, they both beat Nadal the last time they played him, and he's their likely next opponent, unless Gonzalez makes the enormous upset.

Basically, any of these matches could go either way without surprising me too much, with the exception of Roddick and Federer. It would take a meltdown from either of those guys to lose those matches. The nice thing is that no matter what happens, basically any set of quarterfinals should be exciting, too.