Thursday, March 18, 2010

Indian Wells Quarterfinals

The round of sixteen is complete in California, and it was - honestly - not all that exciting. There were two three-set matches, but every single match (except one) was won by the higher-ranked player. The lone upset was an exhausted Novak Djokovic, who fell to Ivan Ljubicic. He did not seem especially saddened or surprised by the loss. Hopefully he'll get some rest and be ready for action again in Miami.

The two three setters were between Nadal-Isner and Robredo-Baghdatis - the second set featured a steamrolling performance by Baggy, but the Spaniard was able to win the other two sets pretty comfortably. I think the Cypriot was hurt by playing so late last night, and he was tired against Robredo, who is doubtless a very physically fit player. Robredo also has the dubious honor of being the best player of the last decade never to make a grand slam semifinal.

The other three-setter was less topsy-turvy. Even though it went three sets, Nadal was in charge against the big-serving American the entire time. He played one loose service game in the second set, and it was done. But other than that, Nadal played his usual imperious game. He went the entire first set without making an unforced error. He then went on to win a doubles match against Llodra and Ram. Isner also went on to win a doubles match, so it's good to see he wasn't discouraged by his loss.

Beyond that, the other round of 16 matches were not terrifically interesting. Almagro was forced to retire in the first game of the second set, after he had started the match on fire, winning the first two games before losing the next seven. It's always a shame when a tough match ends and then the winner has to retire in their subsequent match - for the loser, for the crowd, and for the tournament. James Blake has to be kicking himself right now.

At this point, it's pretty clear which half of the draw is stronger. The remaining players in the top half are seeded 4, 6, 7, and 18. The remaining players in the bottom half are seeded 3, 19, 20, and 21. It's tough to see Nadal losing before the final against Berdych, Ljubicic, or Monaco, considering how well he's played so far. Unless an injure flares up or he comes down bad on a knee, he should make it to Sunday's final.

The story in the top half is more interesting. You have to pick Andy Roddick as the favorite to make it to the semis against Robredo, as the American is 10-0 against Tommy. But Murray and Soderling haven't played in four years, and neither player even resembles who they were in 2006. And then taking the winner of that match against Roddick, to me it may be a bit of a three-way pick-em, but Murray does have to be the favorite. And Soderling is 2-0 against Roddick, who is 3-6 against the other Andy. But Roddick has to be excited with the way the draw is opening up for him. To have all of his potentially troubling opponents get taken out by others - Tiparevic, Monfils, Federer, and Baghdatis. Roddick has not yet played a player who has beaten him even once. He is 22-0 against his first four opponents, coming into the tournament. It's tough to ask for a better road to the final.

It is worth noting that two of the four lower seeds (18-21) have won Masters Series tournaments (Robredo and Berdych), and a third has made multiple finals (Ljubicic). So it's not like they've never been here before. Despite the fact that my draw with my predictions is an absolute shambles, I am really enjoying this tournament and am greatly looking forward to the last three rounds.