Monday, August 30, 2010

US Open Women's Draw Preview

The draw is out, the qualifiers have been placed, and everything is set for the tournament proper to begin. Let's take a look at how the draw shook out, shall we?

The first quarter belongs to surprising top seed Caroline Wozniacki, but it will be interesting to see how she fares under the pressure. She reached the final here last year, but hasn't it made it past a grand slam quarterfinal since then. And with Serena Williams' withdrawal, she become the top seed. And she won last week's tournament in New Haven, but had to play some tough matches to do it. Honestly, put together all of those factors with the issue of having a legitimately tough draw, and I don't know how far Sunshine is going to get this fortnight. Her first round is easy enough, against a 20-year old American wildcard, but after that, things get tougher. She could face Carla Suarez Navarro in the second round, and she'll likely get Maria Sharapova in the fourth round. Even if she gets past all that, her quarterfinal opponent is probably going to be either Na Li or Svetlana Kuznetsova. Sveta and Sharapova are the two toughest floaters in the draw, and for them to be in this quarter makes it tricky for Caroline. I honestly see either Sharapova or Kuznetsova getting out of this section, and I give the winner here a very good chance of winning the tournament. Beyond the players I mentioned, you have to watch out for Kimiko Date Krumm (Kuznetsova's first round opponent), Chakvetadze, who made the semifinals here in 2007. Also, Maria Kirilenko has the potential to make some noise, and would be more of a force if she wasn't in such a loaded section of the draw.

The second quarter of the draw has Jelena Jankovic as the top seeded player, and probably the favorite to make it out of this section. Her top competition is Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva, but the Russian has not been showing the best form beyond that one good run. And she has a tough second round against either Lisicki or Coco Vandeweghe. Other than Vera, the other contenders are in that section of the draw, like Aggie Radwanska and Nadia Petrova. I give Yanina Wickmayer an outside shot, but she has some tough competition. This section also has Patty Schnyder, who may be in the twilight of her career, but she still has six grand slam quarterfinals and one semifinal appearance under her belt. Also, keep an eye on the US contingent in this section. In addition to Vandeweghe, you'll find Jamie Hampton, Shelby Rogers, and Bethanie Mattek-Sands. These players often are quiet in other tournaments, but the excitement of the U.S. Open inspires them, and they can pull off victories that are usually beyond their capabilities.

The third quarter has Venus Williams as its top seed, but it has some other tough seeds that she would have to get through, and she hasn't been able to play much lately. Francesca Schiavone may have peaked with her win at the French Open this year, so I don't know how far she'll be able to make it. Victoria Azarenka may be the actual favorite to make it out of this section, actually. The other Italian Flavia Pennetta is here as well, not to mention Israeli Shahar Peer and Indian Sania Mirza. There are two notable young players here as well - Michelle Larcher De Brito, who will make a lot of noise even if she loses in her first round (she's a grunter), and Melanie Oudin, who will probably not be able to live up to her dream run from last year. She has a pretty good first round, but she'll get Alona Bondarenko in the second round, and that's a step up for Melanie. She's had trouble dealing with the expectations all year, and things are only going to be worse here. I expect that the quarterfinal will be Azarenka-Williams, and that should be a good match.

The last quarter is also pretty stacked, with defending champion (and owner of a 14-match winning streak) Kim Clijsters as the second seed. She has - I have to say - a pretty soft draw to get through to the round of 16, where she'll probably face either Marion Bartoli or Ana Ivanovic. Honestly, the opposite eighth of the draw is the one with so many of the tough players. Dementieva, Stosur, Safina, and Kleybonova - that's a tough set of players to be in such a tight space. I see Dementieva beating Safina in the 3rd round, Stosur beating Dementieva in the 4th, and Clijsters beating Stosur in the quarterfinals. It will be interesting to see who gets Kimmy at that stage, but I think she's the surefire favorite to make it through to the semis

For tomorrow's schedule, we get to see if Oudin can open the day on Arthur Ashe stadium, and what sort of form Venus is in. Dinara Safina gets Daniela Hantuchova, but if the former world number one is actually healthy, she can win that match. Although a lot of her collapse was mental last year at this time, it also had a lot to do with injury, which only becomes clear as you look at her retirements in retrospect. Ivanovic plays Makarova, and you can bet that people will be rooting for her almost as much as they'll be rooting for Oudin. Keep an eye on Sania Mirza against Larcher De Brito on court seven, since you'll be able to hear it all around the grounds.

I'll work on my men's draw preview after this - I should get it done just in time for play to start!