Saturday, January 30, 2010

Women's final wrap-up and men's final preview

That was quite a final, last night. I'm inclined to say it was one of the better women's grand slam finals of the last three or four years, and if you throw out matches that featured Venus and Serena, it was probably the best for the last half-decade. I was surprised to see the way Henin played against Serena, not the way she had played their previous encounters. She was on the attack just about from the word go, and it very nearly worked. But in the end, Serena's serve and power was just a bit too strong for the Belgian.

But this has to be an encouraging result for Justine. Second tournament back, and she gets to the final and nearly beats the number one player in the world? Watch out at the French Open, which is Henin's best surface and Serena's worst. It will be interesting to see how committed she is to playing the smaller events on the tour, and how well she does at them.

It was a worthy match to decide the championship. If Justine had served a little better or Serena had served a little worse, or if Justine had capitalized on a few more of her break points, it could have swung either way. More than anything else, I root for good tennis, and I got what I was hoping for in that final. Excellent play from both competitors, and in the end, the player who was stronger that day came out on top.

I hope that the men's final tonight is as competitive, but I have my doubts. The most interesting thing going into this final is that Federer, now that he has completed his ascent to the top tier of the tennis pantheon, doesn't seem to mind saying it when he knows how good he is. When asked about the pressure of facing Murray, Federer was anything but deferential to his opponent, one of the few who has a winning record against him on tour today. To Federer, Murray was the one who was playing under all the pressure - the pressure of winning his first grand slam and of ending Britain's three-quarter century-long drought. And he would have to beat the greatest player of all time to do it.

Now, Federer's not wrong in saying anything of this, but he usually is a bit more guarded in his pre-match commentary. I'm used to hearing him say things like, "We've had a lot of tough matches in the past, he's gotten me a few times, so I know I'm going to have to go out there and play my best game to beat him." His candor is both surprising and a bit refreshing, when he doesn't give Murray much of a chance out there.

I'm not sure I do, either. The most relevant matches to look at are the last two, when Federer beat Murray at the end of year championships and last Masters Series tournament before the U.S. Open. The other match, and the one that Federer is going to be looking towards the most, is their meeting in the final of the 2008 U.S. Open, where Fed won in straights. That's their only other meeting in the majors, which is interesting by itself. In that same timeframe (since 2005), Federer and Roddick have met six times in Grand Slams.

In order for Murray to win tonight, he is going to have to be absolutely on the top of his game. His movement, serve, and backhand down the line are all going to have to be firing on all cylinders. He's also going to have to hope that Federer's level drops a bit from where it was in the last two and a half sets against Davydenko, or the entire match against Hewitt.

Fortunately for Murray, in two out of Roger's last three five-set finals, he's wilted in the fifth. He did it against Del Potro in New York and here against Nadal last year. I think that the longer this match goes, the better Murray's chances get. If he can stretch Federer to a fifth, I like his chances. But he has to be careful, and he has to start strong, or else he'll be out of there as quickly as he was the last time they met at this stage, which was 111 minutes.