Saturday, May 29, 2010

French Open Day 6

We are almost back on schedule in Paris. After having almost the entire day's worth of play pushed back, there are now only two matches which were postponed until tomorrow to see through to completion. Aravane Rezai and Nadia Petrova are battling at 7-all in the third set, while Mikhail Youzhny is up two sets to one and a break in the fourth on Viktor Troicki. I don't know who's going to come through in the women's match, but I except Youzhny to find his way to victory fairly quickly.

Other action that took place today was fairly straightforward - in general, the tournament has been moving along about as one would have suspected. The top players have rolled, the favorites have won more often than not, and the dark horses who have been upset by now have usually been ones who were struggling with form or injury anyway. Take, for example, defending champion Svetlana Kuznetsova, just wasn't quite strong enough against Russian Maria Kirilenko. Sveta's ranking is plummeting, and she'll be hovering just above twenty after this tournament. The two-time grand slam winner needs to get her head straight.

Fernando Gonzalez also lost, rather tamely, to Ukrainian Oleksandr Dolgopolov Jr., and a result like that probably doesn't require my pointing out that Gonzo has been seriously struggling with tendinitis in his knees. He was a semifinalist here last year, so this result will hurt him, as well.

The only other seeded players who lost today lost to other seeds, and it'd be tough to call any of them upsets. Baghdatis lost to Murray, Montanes to Soderling, and Isner lost to Berdych. I'm not sure if Isner was tired after his two-day marathon against Chiudinelli or if Berdych just played amazing tennis, but this was a beat-down. I expect it was a little bit of both. Berdych has never made it past the fourth round here - in fact, he's never made it past the fourth round at any grand slam barring one visit to the quarterfinals back in 2007. For his talent, that is an absolute shame.

The other American who lost today lost in the opposite fashion - Mardy Fish lost an amazingly tight affair to Ivan Ljubicic, 10-8 in the fifth set. Unfortunately for Fish, that loss counts just the same as if he had been blown out. Disappointing result for Mardy, but hopefully he'll be able to get some confidence from how well he played, if nothing else.

Looking ahead to tomorrow's action, there are some spectacular matches taking place. The highlight is probably Justine Henin against Maria Sharapova. If you go all the way back to the year-end championships in 2008, these two played the last - and best - match of the year. But that was on a hardcourt, which favored Sharapova. I actually think that Henin has the advantage in this one, but if she's rusty or nervous - and who wouldn't be? - it could go either way.

Lleyton Hewitt plays Rafael Nadal, which might have the makings of a good match, but there's almost no way that Hewitt could pull off the upset. This is Nadal's best Grand Slam and Hewitt's worst. I don't see how Hewitt could even make it close - his game is too much like Nadal's, except less effective in just about every aspect. In order to beat Nadal, you can't out-Nadal him; you have to hit big, like Soderling did last year, or Roddick did earlier this year in Miami.

Andy Roddick is also in action, in his least favorite court - first up on Suzanne Lenglen. Fortunately, he is playing Teimuraz Gabashvili, who is playing his first Grand Slam third round match. He's ranked outside the top hundred, and was 1-6 on the year coming into the French Open. He had a couple pretty good wins against Grega Zemjla and Daniel Koellerer in the first two rounds, after winning three in qualifying, but he's entering an entirely different realm of tennis against Andy Roddick. This match is Roddick's to win or lose, if he can keep his head on straight.

The only other American male left in the draw is Robbie Ginepri, who I thought for sure would lose his second round match after Sam Querrey nearly walked off-court against him. But he made it through to the third round, where he'll face former champion Juan Carlos Ferrero. You have to think that Ginepri's run is over, but he is a former grand slam semifinalist, and he's surprised me before.

There are three other Spaniards in action tomorrow, as well. Nicolas Almagro has the easiest opponent in Frenchman Marc Gicquel, but he's also the weakest on clay. His compatriots, are stronger on the surface but facing sterner opposition. Verdasco is up against German Philipp Kohlschreiber and Ferrer faces Jurgen Melzer. Outside chance of an upset in both of those matches.

The last match that I think looks particularly interesting is Ivan Ljubicic against Tomaz Bellucci. One of the veterans of the game against one of the up-and-comers. I'd favor Belucci in this match, because of his age and the fact that his previous round was probably not as taxing as Ljubicic's. It may have been five sets as well, but it was a much quicker match. It should be interesting, though.

The disadvantage of a tournament that chugs along through the first week without a lot of surprises is that it takes some time for the Slam to feel like it's developed an identity. Up to this point, there has been plenty of good tennis, but no real defining matches for any of the players who've taken the court. The advantage of this kind a tournament is that the dearth of excitement in the first week gets made up for in the second week, as the top players who were seeded to meet each other do so, and at that point, we should be due for some epic clashes.