Friday, July 30, 2010

Week 30 Quarterfinals

We're through to the quarterfinals, with another three ATP 250 tournaments moving right along. Well, we're almost through to the quarterfinals - in Umag, the rain kept all action off the courts today, so they've got a few matches to get through before the quarterfinals. But that just means more action tomorrow, so we can catch up!

In Gstaad, three out of four seeds remain in the top half of the draw, and only one of four in the bottom half. It's interesting - top seed Mikhail Youzhny should breeze through 31-year old Kazakh qualifier Yuri Schukin, while the match-up between Gasquet and Montanes is one of the most interesting matches on offer tomorrow. I see Gasquet getting through that one, and a Youzhny-Gasquet semi would be an excellent clash. In the bottom half, there are three huge-hitting players (Almagro, Chardy, and Andreev) plus Gimeno-Traver. I would bet on Almagro and Andreev getting through those matches to the semis. It's worth noting that Andreev's match in the round of 16 against Marco Chiudinelli was one of the best matches of the tournament, with two tiebreak sets necessary for the Russian to get through.

In Los Angeles, the most interesting story so far was the absolute implosion of Ernests Gulbis. He was dominating Alejandro Falla, up a set and with multiple break point chances in the second, before he just imploded, lost a point due to racket abuse, and then lost the set. He was up an early break in the third before beginning to self-destruct again. Falla actually served for the match, only to get broken. But in the tiebreak, Gulbis fell apart again - eventually losing the match 10-8. He is definitely beginning to remind me of Safin, in his temperament and skill. This was his first tournament back after a layoff, so one might expect a bit of rust. Gulbis was not too down on himself in his post-match interview, and I expect he'll be back for the rest of the U.S. Open series.

Beyond that, it's also good to see James Blake and Andy Murray in action - and they're one round away from a semifinal meeting which could be a lot of fun to watch. Before that, Murray will have to beat Falla (which I expect should be no problem) and Blake will have to get through Feliciano Lopez. That's the toughest match he's had since coming back from injury, but it's winnable, the way he's playing so far. In the bottom half of the draw, two underachieving but very talented and fun players are meeting in the first quarter - Janko Tipsarevic and Marcos Baghdatis, which is something of a pick-em, since neither one has been playing particularly well lately, and Sam Querrey meets Rainer Schuettler. They've already played twice this year, with Schuettler winning at the Aussie Open, while Querrey won in Queens, where he went on to win the tournament. Querrey didn't start great against Kevin Anderson in his last match, but he finished off in supremely good form, winning the third set to love. I like him against the German vet.

It's tough to know what's going to happen in Umag, since half of the players in action tomorrow will have to play two matches in one day to get to the semis. Normally, I'd favor Melzer and Ljubicic, but the Croat may not be be able to recover as quickly as he would like, and Melzer has played so much tennis lately, he must be jaded. Also, the Umag draw did an interesting thing where they played two matches each from the top and bottom of the draw on the two days of the second round, which puts the other pair at a disadvantage when there's a rain delay like this. Whoever wins between Davydenko-Chela and Ferrero-Dolgopolov (I like the first player in each case) will be much fresher for the semis. Don't be shocked to see a Davydenko Ferrero final come Sunday.