Monday, August 9, 2010

Washington Wrap-Up and Toronto Masters Preview

The week in Washington was absolutely crazy. Not only did every American get dumped by the quarterfinals, but David Nalbandian, who looked like his career was on its last legs this time last year, tore through some tough opposition to take only his 11th title. For a player who's been on tour as long as he has, and who has as much talent, that number is woefully low. A huge win for Nalbandian over Baghdatis in the final, and this brings the Argentine back into the conversation. He played stellar tennis all week long, bringing out his best when he really needed it, and absolutely playing like the world-beater he once was. The question will be how well he can maintain that form, because if he can, he's going to be a dark horse in almost any tournament he enters.

The other big story of the week was how wayward Svetlana Kuznetsova pulled her game together long enough to win her first title of the year. She played some solid tennis herself - hopefully, this is the start of things shifting around a bit for the Russian.

Looking ahead, next week's Rogers Cup in Toronto is the first big tournament since Wimbledon. All of the non-injured top ten players are in action again, when we haven't too seen much of them lately. When your 16th seed is ranked #20 in the world, you know your draw is pretty stacked. It will be interesting to see how the top players perform, now that the hard court season is starting in earnest. One year ago, this was the tournament where the top eight seeds made it to the finals for the first time - this year, another historic milestone is happening this week. Roddick drops out of the top ten and that leaves no U.S. player in the top ten for the first time in history. Ouch. Since Roddick made it to the semifinals here last year, it's going to be tough to not lose points this week.

Roddick is in the top quarter of the draw, with top seed Rafael Nadal. His little section is also absolutely stacked with players who have beaten Roddick in tough matches. His first opponent could be Yen-Hsun Lu, who beat him at Wimbledon. Tipsarevic is also in this group, who beat him at Wimbledon two years ago and has been playing well. His first seeded player to meet is Cilic, who beat him at the Aussie Open, and he could also get Kohlschreiber, who beat him at the Aussie Open a couple years ago. Even Viktor Troicki beat Roddick during the summer swing two years ago. And then, if he makes it through that minefield, he'll probably get Rafael Nadal or - slightly less likely - Sam Querrey, who beat him earlier this year. Tough draw for the American; he could be on the verge of falling out of the top fifteen next week.

The next quarter of the draw is Andy Murray's, but his form has not been spectacular, either. He could face a red-hot Xavier Malisse in his first match, which could be a challenge. After that, perhaps Gael Monfils, or question mark Fernando Gonzalez, who has not played since the early Spring, and who opens against the Frenchman. Murray's potential quarterfinal opponent could be Soderling, Ferrer, Nalbandian, or Gulbis - that is a pretty stacked section of the draw as well. Gulbis-Bellucci is one of the most interesting first-round match-ups on offer, as we might see if Ernests has healed at all since his early withdrawal in Washington.

The draw's third quarter belongs to - bizarrely enough - Roger Federer, playing in his first tournament as the number three seed since... since before I started paying attention to tennis as a sport, honestly. His section of the draw is relatively cushy, in comparison to the top half, so hopefully his time off and his new coaching relationship will see him through to at least the quarters. Alejandro Falla, Federer's almost-conqueror at Wimbledon and potential first match for Fed here, has to be disappointed to see that. Almagro's is Fed's potential opponent once the seeds start to meet, and he is playing some of his best tennis of late, but it's tough to see him pulling off that upset. Federer will then get either Berdych (pretty likely) or Youzhny, or perhaps one of the two erstwhile Frenchmen, Gasquet or Simon. Simon-Youzhny is another of the really good opening rounds, but all the same - not a lot of firepower that's likely to knock Federer off his place, here.

The fourth quarter has second-seeded Novak Djokovic and Nikolday Davydenko, as well as Jurgen Melzer and Fernando Verdasco. Washington finalist Marcos Baghdatis is here, as well as Radek Stepanek. Two of the four Canadian wildcards ended up in this quarter, which is honestly good for the other players, but keep an eye Raonic-Hanescu in the first round. Raonic played a great match here last year, and has a lot of potential as one of the more visible teens on the tour. He just made a challenger final as well, losing to 102-ranked Tobias Kamke.

This is an interesting draw, as it appears to be really top-heavy, but with 16 of the top 20 players in action and only 56 players in action at all, there aren't that many places to hide. I'm excited to see how things play out.