Sunday, September 26, 2010

Week 38 Review and Week 39 Preview

I'm somewhat reluctant to admit it, but I have to say that it was tough to get excited about pretty much anything that happened over the course of the past week - the biggest story of the past week was Rafael Nadal's commitment to play in Queens next year. There was almost an enticing final in Metz, as Gilles Simon and Richard Gasquet looked prime to meet, but then Gasquet withdrew from his semifinal match with a fever. The Frenchman won, but it was a pretty depleted field. And Chela beat Andujar in Bucharest - a tournament that was filled with steady but unexciting clay court players.

But fortunately, things are starting to heat up. Last week, the 14th-ranked player in the world was the top player in action - but now, six of the top ten are playing. This is the start of the Asian swing, with tournaments in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok. Nadal is playing, along with Soderling, Davydenko, Berdych, Youzhny, and Verdasco. But the biggest story of the week is that this marks former U.S. Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro's return to action after spending most of the year recovering from surgery. He starts off with a tricky encounter against Olivier Rochus, so there's not much time to get back in the groove. It will be very interesting to see how the Argentine does in his return. Assuming DelPo gets past Rochus, it's likely that he'll meet Nadal in the quarters, which should be interesting. Del Potro just blew Nadal off the court the last few times they've played.

Unfortunately for the tournament, except for the top couple of players and Juan Martin Del Potro, the rest of the draw is a bit weak. The second quarter of the draw is headed up by Ernests Gulbis, but it also has Rainer Schuettler and Teymuraz Gabasvhili. The third quarter has a handful of guys who could make the semis - Jurgen Melzer, Dudi Sela, Marco Chiudinelli, Viktor Troicki, and Jarkko Nieminen. The last quarter belongs to Fernando Verdasco - who doesn't have anyone comparable to a DelPo to challenge him. Thiemo de Bakker and Feliciano Lopez are fine players, but I'd be shocked not to see Verdasco come through his quarter. It's likely that we'll get the top seeds through to that stage - and Nadal-Gulbis plus Melzer-Verdasco would be a pretty great line-up for such a small torunament.

In Kuala Lumpur, there are more top players - four of the six top ten guys in action are in Malaysia. Robin Soderling is the top seed, and he could have a tricky path through the draw - his section has Andrey Golubev, tall, big-serving South African Kevin Anderson, and Yen-Hsun Lu. Soderling hasn't played his best in small tournaments like these this year, so he could use a good run.

While Bangkok has the bigger stars, the depth of field is better in Kuala Lumpur. The second quarter has Berdych and Ferrer, as well as a pair of young wildcards - Yuki Bhambri and Bernard Tomic. Tough to bet against Berdych in that group, though he hasn't played particularly well since Wimbledon. Istomin is also in this group - he's got an outside chance of making the quarters.

The third quarter has one of the best opening-round matches in this tournament, in which Marcos Baghdatis faces off against Kei Nishikori. Dolgopolov is also in this group, and could get Mikhail Youzhny in the second round. Any of these four guys could get through. The last quarter has Sergiy Stakhovsky against Michael Russel as another pretty good first-round match, and a potential match between Russians Davydenko and Andreev in the second round. The young Canadian player Milos Raonic is also in this section. There are some very interesting top players and young guns in this tournament - there could be some fun matches.

It's still early, but there's a chance for some fireworks this week, with so many of the top players and talented young guns in action. I'm looking forward to the tennis.